patrick.net

We'll see how long it will be before the FED revamps QE 4. And I doubt they'll raise interest rates if they do it'll probably be like a quarter of a percent. If they raise it by 1% or more you can kiss this phony recovery bye bye.

The dollar is stretched at the moment. It will make a multi-month corrective retreat that should ease the concerns of the 'strong dollar is bad' community, but then it will continue its trek into the stratosphere.

I have explained before, most debt in the world is denominated in dollars. As deflationary pressures increase, the urge to save and to pay down debt will increase which, in turn, will increase the demand for dollars.

Current demand is nothing compared to what is coming.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-9262014/

darlag says

I have explained before, most debt in the world is denominated in dollars. As deflationary pressures increase, the urge to save and to pay down debt will increase which, in turn, will increase the demand for dollars.

That makes sense and that will cause the Fed to abandon raising rates as they would just increase the demand and deflation.
Dollar strength may even cause another round of QE.
Here is a quote from

NY Fed President Dudley
“If the dollar were to strengthen a lot, it would have consequences for growth.” “We would have poorer trade performance, less exports, more imports,” he said. “And if the dollar were to appreciate a lot, it would tend to dampen inflation. So it would make it harder to achieve our two objectives. So obviously we would take that into account.”

https://smaulgld.com/will-fed-raise-interest-rates/

smaulgld says

That makes sense and that will cause the Fed to abandon raising rates as they would just increase the demand and deflation.

I agree. The Fed already knows it's not going to raise interest rates. Rhetoric is all it has left in its weapons arsenal. When that finally becomes evident to the rhetoric junkies on Wall Street the jig is up.

The Fed will hold out to the very last micro-second before it finally admits it will no longer entertain a rate raise, blaming the failing economy on the lack of fiscal discipline in Congress. "We did everything we could monetarily, but Congress just wouldn't do their part."

It's doubtful that hungry, jobless Americans will buy the accusatory tone. I expect both Congress and the Fed will be hated as pariahs before the deflationary economic collapse finally bottoms.

darlag says

The Fed already knows it's not going to raise interest rates. Rhetoric is all it has left in its weapons arsenal. When that finally becomes evident to the rhetoric junkies on Wall Street the jig is up.

The Fed will hold out to the very last micro-second before it finally admits it will no longer entertain a rate raise, blaming the failing economy on the lack of fiscal discipline in Congress. "We did everything we could monetarily, but Congress just wouldn't do their part."

Yes, the Fed is the master of unexpected, unforeseen events messing up their stated plans.
I did a post recently that listed a bunch of excuses they could use not to raise rates.
The main reason is they cant and wont because it would harm the credit based economy and the deficit driven government spending

and Yellen wants her own turn at the printing press

smaulgld says

and Yellen wants her own turn at the printing press

It's a dream job.