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1   Bigsby   2014 Oct 8, 2:10pm  

bgamall4 says

The advocates of radical eugenics must be thrilled. But sane people should be concerned.

I take it you aren't worried then.

2   bob2356   2014 Oct 8, 11:38pm  

Bigsby says

Shame it's 2014.

The captain isn't that far along yet.

3   HydroCabron   2014 Oct 9, 12:53am  

Ebola is that rare event which is a:

- black swan
- red herring
- Ponzi scheme

all at the same time.

4   HydroCabron   2014 Oct 9, 1:54am  

Call it Crazy says

In 2012, malaria caused an estimated 627,000 deaths

Wow - and Obama did nothing. He implemented no travel bans, no airport screening protocols, and no special training for hospital staff in the United States.

How do we know that malaria is spread only through mosquito bites? Why not in aerosol form? Have there been clinical studies? What about vapor transmission? Or, finally, through droplets?

Given the endemic nature of malaria in Africa, isn't evolution of the parasite to aerosol, vapor or liquid form almost inevitable by this point?

5   MisdemeanorRebel   2014 Oct 9, 2:04am  

If you want to save lives from infectious diseases in Africa, donate to build some wells.

Typhoid, Cholera, Dengue, Malaria are the #1 killers. Ebola is a blip.

The chances of these taking hold in the US are nil, because clean water, sanitation, mosquito control, and that Americans don't live in 8x8 dirt floor grass huts with no running water and 10 other people.

6   indigenous   2014 Oct 9, 2:10am  

BenghazebolaHusseinCabronObama says

Given the endemic nature of malaria in Africa, isn't evolution of the parasite to aerosol, vapor or liquid form almost inevitable by this point?

At 900k+ it is very successful and would likely kill the host if any more so

7   indigenous   2014 Oct 9, 2:11am  

thunderlips11 says

If you want to save lives from infectious diseases in Africa, donate to build some wells.

A better solution would be to lift the EPA ban on DDT .

That and economic growth for the afflicted nations.

8   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Oct 9, 2:20am  

indigenous says

A better solution would be to lift the EPA ban on DDT .

Nah... Just send Bill Gates kill mosquitoes.

9   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Oct 9, 2:27am  

indigenous says

Could Ebola be a Black Swan

Could be a red herring.
Or white noise.
Or a gray area.

10   HydroCabron   2014 Oct 9, 3:03am  

indigenous says

At 900k+ it is very successful and would likely kill the host if any more so

Yes and this is in strong contrast to ebola which is usually about as severe as the sniffles

11   HydroCabron   2014 Oct 9, 3:14am  

indigenous says

A better solution would be to lift the EPA ban on DDT

No it wouldn't.

DDT has been overly demonized, but there are large resistant populations of mosquitoes, and more effective pesticides are now available with fewer collateral downsides. DDT is great for indoor and structural application in places which are absolutely shit-poor, mud-hut desperate, and that's about it.

By the way, the EPA has as much authority in Africa as the ACLU. And the CRA has not spread either malaria or ebola in Africa.

12   Shaman   2014 Oct 9, 3:18am  

We used to have malaria in the United States too, but we eradicated it with DDT. Then we organized a worldwide ban on DDT so other less fortunate nations would have to live with their malaria.
But hey, we got some birds!

13   RWSGFY   2014 Oct 9, 3:19am  

BenghazebolaHusseinCabronObama says

Ebola is that rare event which is a:

- black swan

- red herring

- Ponzi scheme

- false flag

- nazi junta

14   MisdemeanorRebel   2014 Oct 9, 3:45am  

- Pro-democracy Protesters

- Mission Accomplished

- Our National Language comes from Venus

15   indigenous   2014 Oct 9, 8:59am  

BenghazebolaHusseinCabronObama says

By the way, the EPA has as much authority in Africa as the ACLU. And the CRA has not spread either malaria or ebola in Africa.

But they have purvey over domestic producers.

16   Peter P   2014 Oct 9, 9:02am  

If someone thinks it might be a Black Swan, then it is no longer a Black Swan.

17   Peter P   2014 Oct 9, 9:33am  

Humans do not process probabilistic information rationally. They are especially bad at conditional probabilities.

People are more afraid of flying than driving simply because car accidents are perceived to be survivable. Similarly, most of them consider flu survivable.

18   Peter P   2014 Oct 9, 9:37am  

Call it Crazy says

Peter P says

Similarly, most of them consider flu survivable.

It is, less than 1% die from the seasonal flu...

True, but you are more than 100 times *less* likely to contract Ebola. :-)

19   Rew   2014 Oct 9, 10:04am  

Call it Crazy says

Peter P says

Call it Crazy says

Peter P says

Similarly, most of them consider flu survivable.

It is, less than 1% die from the seasonal flu...

True, but you are more than 100 times *less* likely to contract Ebola. :-)

If our season flu had the same Case Fatality Rate of Ebola, how many people would contract it?

You are talking about something as infectious as a flu with a mortality rate of Ebola? Yeah, that's flipping scary. Good thing that isn't Ebola.

CiC : But it could be. We don't know.
Rew : But it isn't.
CiC : Let's wait and see.

What are hoping for. What do you get from this line of "Ebola could be really bad!" argument?

Yes, it could be. But it isn't.

The sun is coming up tomorrow, I'm going to work, it will be a regular day. I cannot prove it, I just have overwhelming historical odds that it happens. Guess we will wait and see.

20   Rew   2014 Oct 9, 10:07am  

Call it Crazy says

Rew says

The 1918 flu seems to run counter to the notion that nations with good health care are less prone to epidemics.

What was that you were saying about the healthcare in the US compared to other countries?

Find another epidemic or pandemic like it.

21   zzyzzx   2014 Oct 9, 12:34pm  

Call it Crazy says

The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.

So how long before Africa is empty and ready for colonization?

22   indigenous   2014 Oct 9, 11:50pm  

bob2356 says

But don't let facts screw you up. The US government is responsible for everything on the planet.

And some how it does not make it's way to Africa...

23   Blurtman   2014 Oct 9, 11:53pm  

Eeeee-Bo-Laaaaaa.

Eeeee-Bo-Laaaaaa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLTlRHmiHIE

24   zzyzzx   2014 Oct 9, 11:57pm  

Call it Crazy says

You don't want to kill them all,

Yes, you do!

25   bob2356   2014 Oct 9, 11:58pm  

indigenous says

bob2356 says

But don't let facts screw you up. The US government is responsible for everything on the planet.

And some how it does not make it's way to Africa...

DDT is used all over in africa. WTF are you talking about? South Africa uses it extensively, other countries mix and match with other methods. Do you ever read anything before you post about it.

26   indigenous   2014 Oct 10, 12:11am  

bob2356 says

DDT is used all over in africa

Citation please

27   indigenous   2014 Oct 10, 12:14am  

I read something a while back that they quit using DDT because of the propaganda about it's dangers.

Since the US does not have a malaria problem the question is why?

I assumed it was because of better pesticides.

28   indigenous   2014 Oct 10, 1:40am  

bob2356 says

DDT is used all over in africa. WTF are you talking about? South Africa uses it extensively, other countries mix and match with other methods. Do you ever read anything before you post about it.

As I said Bob is not an unimpeachable source of information. And assumes, as he accuses others of assuming. IOW what I asserted was correct.

"South Africa has turned the tide on malaria, cutting mortality rates by 85 per cent over the past 12 years, and hopes to eliminate the disease soon, a new report shows."

"Amid controversy over the use of the chemical DDT, the report, delivered at a Pan African Malaria conference in Durban, says only 70 people died last year from the mosquito-borne disease compared with 460 deaths recorded in 2000. The number of people who caught malaria has come down to about a tenth of the cases recorded that same year."

"Worldwide, the disease kills an estimated 660,000 people each year, 90 per cent of them in Africa, with the majority being children."

"At the centre of the fight to eliminate infections is the use of the highly contentious insecticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, better known by its acronym DDT, to kill the malaria-transmitting vectors."

"Authorities say infections soared to more than threefold in 1996 after the use of DDT was halted, rising to 64,500 in 2000."

http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaria-death-rate-slashed-with-use-of-controversial-ddt-20131010-2vb7c.html

This article from 2013:

"Amidst staggering mortality and morbidity rates due to malaria in the African continent, African Heads of State and Government have adopted the use of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), a controversial chemical, as the means of eradicating malaria in the continent,"

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/141150-african-countries-adopt-controversial-deadly-chemical-ddt-for-malaria-treatment.html

29   Y   2014 Oct 10, 2:30am  

People are more afraid of flying than driving simply because with the car they are in control of the vehicle.

Peter P says

People are more afraid of flying than driving simply because car accidents are perceived to be survivable.

30   Peter P   2014 Oct 10, 2:34am  

SoftShell says

People are more afraid of flying than driving simply because with the car they are in control of the vehicle.

Peter P says

People are more afraid of flying than driving simply because car accidents are perceived to be survivable.

That too.

31   dublin hillz   2014 Oct 10, 2:41am  

Statistically, for most of us, the most dangerous part of our day is commute to and from work. And the most dangerous part of vacation is driving to/from the airport.

32   Peter P   2014 Oct 10, 2:43am  

dublin hillz says

Statistically, for most of us, the most dangerous part of our day is commute to and from work. And the most dangerous part of vacation is driving to/from the airport.

Very true indeed. Can't wait for the self-driving car.

It also depends on where you are vacationing...

33   Rew   2014 Oct 10, 2:45am  

So I assume CiC, based on your posts, you are moving to a low density population, underground, and will hunker down for about 6+ months?

:)

Back when Bird flu was the new hotness ...

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128314.600-five-easy-mutations-to-make-bird-flu-a-lethal-pandemic.html

Here is how the swine flu is looked back on ...

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/11/26/247379604/2009-flu-pandemic-was-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/reconstruction-of-a-mass-hysteria-the-swine-flu-panic-of-2009-a-682613.html

SARS ...

http://www.everydayhealth.com/cold-and-flu/what-happened-to-sars.aspx
https://news.usc.edu/1743/sars-is-cause-for-concern-not-panic/

Ebola is arguably one of the most lethal diseases we know of today, and that is captivating and drums up huge hits for news outlets. Ebola sells.

That said ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/06/no-americans-arent-freaking-out-about-ebola-not-even-close/

So, CiC, did you graduate college?

Here is how it is beaten ...

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/10/nigeria-ebola-cdc

Can you do the same in West Africa? Likely not to the same way. Can we do the same here in the US, Europe, etc. ... absolutely. Will we even need to? Very doubtful.

34   Rew   2014 Oct 10, 3:58am  

Yes, what we know now, about life the universe and everything, is current and relevant, until something changes. Our knowledge is absolutely based on what happened one second, one minute, a day, a month, a year, a hundred years ago. It is all historical.

The earth hasn't been struck by a life ending meteorite ... so far.
We haven't been invaded by aliens who want to eat us ... so far.
The sun rose today and always has ... so far.
Your rebuttal is pretty weak ... so far.

35   Y   2014 Oct 10, 5:28am  

So what are they saying?
Make your girlfriend take scalding hot baths??

Rew says

Here is how it is beaten ...

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/10/nigeria-ebola-cdc

36   Rew   2014 Oct 10, 6:25am  

LOL, read the article. It was about tracing possible risk paths of exposure, and general quarantine for high risk persons. Hmmmm, what did we do so far for the case in Dallas? OMG! The same thing! We are doomed!

CiC, what no comeback?

37   indigenous   2014 Oct 10, 6:32am  

And remember if there is bleeding from the eyes, nose, ears, mouth there may be something wrong.

38   Rew   2014 Oct 13, 9:57am  

http://www.realscience.us/2012/02/06/malaria-deaths-grossly-underestimated/

Is 1.2 million deaths worldwide better?

900K is a good guess for Africa. If you want more precision the CDC is claiming around 655K for 2012 in Africa. But, no one knows the exact number, they talk in error factors that are pretty high +/-.

In the heavily affected regions of Africa, 10% of country populations are affected by Malaria. For Sierra Leon, whose aid workers are essentially saying they are overwhelmed by Ebola, Ebola would have to infect 600,000 people, to reach the same level. We are at 8K and rising now for Guinea, Sierra Leon, and Liberia, which are about 22 million people strong.

I don't think raising Malaria as a far more important disease than Ebola is out of place at all. Ebola is interesting from the new diseases emerging and zoonotic disease perspective. Malaria is really interesting from the fact that it is a zoonotic we have yet to beat, and it causes us huge issues each year in the tropics.

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