patrick.net

How about future bubbles?

The bond market, stock market, RE

I don't see a bond market bubble because I don't see inflation coming here

Inflation requires three things: too much money cycling among consumers and not enough goods on the shelves to soak up the demand.

the third thing is the ability of consumers to successfully raise their wages in response to rising prices, but that is a corollary of the first maybe.

P/T employees obviously have no bargaining power in this economy, they're lucky to get the hours they do.

F/T shows a significant reserve army holding down wages:

^ Underemployment is ~5M by that graph

So, no wage inflation, no inflation.

Stock market bubble, well we have this:

Real corporate profits

That's the flipside of "no wage inflation", too. More money for CEOs, less for you!

RE bubble? Rents show no sign of failing:

Population is going to grow smoothly by 80M people by 2050 and beyond. If you want a quality of life better than a cave man, you're going to have to pay the man.

Bellingham Bill says

I don't see a bond market bubble because I don't see inflation coming here

That is not a permanent condition, wages have been held down for a long time.

At some point that money is going to start cycling through at some point the stock market is going to adjust probably sooner that later.

"I don't agree the dearth comes from government meddling. Not technology."

this prompted me to make a new FRED graph:

Speaking of which:

Is employment in Fresno.

Local Gov't, down from the peak, same as 2000.

Mfg jobs gone away, no doubt like indigenous says due to our gov't meddling in the free market and not NAFTA or anything.

Construction (green line) came and went.

Gold is 10,000 IRS employees basically

Orange is the RE sector parasites. Not many jobs there, but boy do they take money OUT of this economy.

http://news.fresnobeehive.com/archives/972

Farming went through the same thing that your graph indicated manufacturing is going through now. It did not mean no jobs.

Then and infinity more now, tomorrow's jobs haven't even been thought of yet.

The real catalyst is to let the business cycle run it's course.

"Farming went through the same thing that your graph indicated manufacturing is going through now. It did not mean no jobs"

Nice troll!

How is that a troll?

Would like to add to Bellingham Bill.
Farming ... matured... much reduced employment
Manufacturing ... matured... much reduced employment
IT/ BioTech industry ... still growing
The academic qualification and skill required as the economy moves from farming to manufacturing to IT/BioTech is higher. As people takes time to obtain academic qualifications and we don't suddenly become smarter (evolution takes awhile), there are not enough folks for IT/ BioTech industry (hence need to get from overseas) and too many folks chasing sunset industries/segment (unemployment rate stubbornly high, high labor dropout and can't be solved by monetary policy). This is not just a problem for Uncle Sam but for matured economy in general.

hanera says

there are not enough folks for IT/ BioTech industry

There are a lot of STEM workers on this site that would argue that point.

IMO the bigger problem stems from demographics and government not allowing the business cycle to run it's course.

Isn't it safe to say that globalization (Indian and Chinese labor), technology and unemployment keep wages down, which prevents inflation, since you cannot have inflation without wage inflation? Price inflation cannot occur if the consumer has no money to spend on the goods to drive up prices.

hanera says

T/ BioTech industry ... still growing

"Biotech, which was defined broadly to include work on drugs, medical devices, research/testing, and agricultural chemicals/feedstocks, gained 96,000 total jobs in the U.S. over the decade from 2001 to 2010, according to the analysis Battelle performed for the Biotechnology Industry Organization. By Battelle’s count, there were 1,605,533 total bioscience-based jobs in the U.S. in 2010."

http://www.xconomy.com/national/2012/06/19/biotech-wasnt-immune-to-job-loss-in-great-recession-bio-report-says/

Mfg lost 6M jobs 2001-2010

As for IT:

Bellingham Bill says

Biotech, which was defined broadly to include work on drugs, medical devices, research/testing, and agricultural chemicals/feedstocks, gained 96,000 total jobs in the U.S. over the decade from 2001 to 2010

And don't forget, this industry, biopharma, hires PhDs and postdocs in chemistry, to be lab technicians, using less than 10% of their actual training in graduate school. So this notion of uneducated workers is a bunch of crap. A reason why biotech hasn't moved to Asia-Pacific in droves yet is that many of the principal investigators want to keep the cards close to them and thus, want their own fiefdoms at home. This is bound to change in the years ahead.

In the future, you will need an MD/PhD to drive a cab.

A strong dollar, mercantilism, and the cost of oil, international re-balancing have something to do with this picture. IOW this may be our winter of discontent (for about 15 yr)

Bellingham Bill says

"Biotech, which was defined broadly to include work on drugs, medical devices, research/testing, and agricultural chemicals/feedstocks, gained 96,000 total jobs in the U.S. over the decade from 2001 to 2010, according to the analysis Battelle performed for the Biotechnology Industry Organization. By Battelle’s count, there were 1,605,533 total bioscience-based jobs in the U.S. in 2010."

How many new STEM grads are there per year? ~355k in a recent year, of which around 300k were bachelor's or higher degrees (the remainder being mostly Comp Sci Associate Degrees).
http://news.sciencemag.org/education/2014/06/data-check-u-s-producing-more-stem-graduates-even-without-proposed-initiatives

And yet according to BB's quoted article, less than 100,000 biotech jobs were created in a decade.

This is because research and development is not a large scale employer, and can never, ever replace manufacturing jobs.

Or the billions wasted on training people up to and including PhD level in the biosciences, who quit because they make less than most other occupations.
http://www.adjunctorium.com/2014/09/16/stem-grads-welcome-to-the-world-of-exploitation/