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Whoa, no more housing forum?

By Goran_K following x   2015 May 4, 10:17am 32,768 views   75 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


Haven't been back to Pat net in a while. Completely different. Looks like no more housing bubble discussion?

#housing

1   anonymous   ignore (null)   2015 May 4, 10:43am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Im tipping enough people realized that there never was a housing bubble in the first place. No mass production of houses. No hangover effect from all the surplus housing. None of that; in fact, what were suffering from now is the complete opposite. Under-production of housing and shortage in supply of housing stock.

What we lived thru the past decade, was a FIRE driven MORTGAGE BUBBLE. Massive over supply of mortgage paper, that led to its devaluation, due to the over production of MORTGAGE DEBT.

2   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 10:51am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Yeah, housing is for rich people now in a lot of areas. Sad but true.

3   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 10:53am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

The bubble site was mostly useless, but did have the occasional good advice mixed in with rascit rants.

I bought a house in 2012 and posted the details here. - 90% of the repsonses were 'youre going to go bankrupt, knife catcher'.

I'm now about to sell that house for 700k more than I paid for it. The market is crazy hot right now. The problem with being a perma bear is you always fence sit.

When patrick was wasting time writing his 'housing is a racket' book he should have been 'scoopin up fixers' as that year was an excellent time to buy ESPECIALLY in the bay area.

The real problem with a bubble/perma bear site is this: there exists NO WAY to make money off a NON TRANSACTION.
Thus he should have shut that mess down and focus on a more profitable type of site. Good job patrick.

4   someone else   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 11:50am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

The real problem with a bubble/perma bear site is this: there exists NO WAY to make money off a NON TRANSACTION.

That much is true. Giving people good advice not to buy when they can rent the same thing far more cheaply is not a business at all.

It was fun, and the original pages still exist ( http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html ) and all the discussion is preserved and continues to some degree, but now I want to focus on SF tech companies.

5   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2015 May 4, 11:56am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

The bubble site was mostly useless, but did have the occasional good advice mixed in with rascit rants.

Oh like "Location, Location, Location" was never about race?

6   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 12:07pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Wow 700k is a good increase. When I bought at the end of 2012 (closed in 2013), my home ended up in hindsight being the cheapest house bought in the past 12 years. I didn't predict or plan that. Now I have Realtors coming to my door asking me to sell at least every 2 weeks. I was planning on renting for a long time before I bought.

7   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2015 May 4, 12:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

They were offered a contract to replace Hannity & Colmes.

8   CDon   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 12:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


Giving people good advice not to buy when they can rent the same thing far more cheaply is not a business at all.

True - Pointing out the way thing are definitely is not terrible advice.

Pointing to a calculator using 0% rent increases and -1% price changes - in perpetuity
Telling people it isn't the bottom based on flawed metrics, appealing to emotion (e.g. don't buy now, "our" time will come)
Telling people to "wait" without having any real clear picture of what they are waiting for, or if it had ever existed in the past/ or will exist in the future...

All this & more constituted pretty terrible advice to the "I want to buy near the bottom and get on with my life crowd" & led to quite a few bitterly disappointed people like this:

http://www.patrick.net/misc/I+wish+I+did+not+know+this+web+site

9   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2015 May 4, 1:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I went to the bottom as far as I dared to go. I knew I could have squeezed another $40K off the $170K when i pulled the trigger.
I just wrote that extra $40K off as the price to pay for getting on with my life. Though I still did pretty well considering I was able to shave $10K off after my original offer was accepted. The banks, lenders and FHA was a little bit more diligent during the window I bought in. And the assessment came in at $160K, I told the seller that I would not pay one penny more than the bank assessed price, and he gave it to me for $160K.

From the time I bought in late 2010, to late 2012, according to Zillow and Trulia my house did go to about $145K. But also by then no banks were giving out Mortgages.
That price was destroying the non existing market.

10   SFace   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 1:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I've spent a lot of time since 2009 to tell the forum to throw the rent buy calculator in the garbage bin. To think of it, the whole ten reasons are crap and useless, or worst just wealth killers.

It's obvious Patrick does not know the factors into buy/sell. He uses more in the software science, math science with hard logic. I view it more from a social and behavior science or applied. If you know the calculator, it's just an input bias and nothing more.

11   SFace   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 1:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


but now I want to focus on SF tech companies.

and you will get crickets.

12   curious2   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 1:24pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

SFace says

I view [whether to buy or rent housing] more from a social and behavior science or applied.

It has become a political science question. I had looked originally from the perspective of economics, and so learned a lot from Patrick's observations. The issue is, even if the economic indicators imply sale prices should fall and thus favor renting, political forces can overpower the economic forces in the same way that jet fuel can lift a heavier than air plane up into the sky. Where the federal government helps "owners" (banskters) with an alphabet soup of programs, the price depends on social and behavioral science, particularly political science.

errc says

What we lived thru the past decade, was a FIRE driven MORTGAGE BUBBLE.

And it's back, with government guaranteed mortgages up to 97% of principal, and the remaining 3% can be a gift. The Fed printed trillions to buy mortgage backed securities, and even though that program has tapered the lending standards have loosened. The next bailout is already built in, as Fannie and Freddie are guaranteeing the loans and the Fed already bought much of the paper.

PockyClipsNow says

The market is crazy hot right now.

Yes, see above. The Dutch tulip bubble would have been a great time to buy tulip bulbs if only the Dutch government had rushed in to prop up the prices, making tulip bulbs a safer store of value than guilders.

13   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 1:33pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

curious2 says

Where the federal government helps "owners" (banskters) with an alphabet soup of programs, the price depends on social and behavioral science, particularly political science.

I don't understand this thinking--I've seen it from many posters here. If banksters weren't helped, and there were more foreclosures, I see no indication that prices would have fallen further as there was no shortage of investor money chomping at the bit to buy houses at discounted prices. In fact, there were many posters here lamenting that there weren't enough houses available at the prices they wanted indicating that there was lots of money available. We would have had more investment purchases, yes-but not significantly lower prices.

curious2 says

The next bailout is already built in, as Fannie and Freddie are guaranteeing the loans and the Fed already bought much of the paper.

What makes you think another bailout will be needed? There was no loose lending like in the past. Unless you are arguing for the coming depression--that I can agree with.

curious2 says

Yes, see above. The Dutch tulip bubble would have been a great time to buy tulip bulbs if only the Dutch government had rushed in to prop up the prices, making tulip bulbs a safer store of value than guilders.

Very poor analogy. Did you see the price of rentals in SF from the other thread?

14   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yeah real estate price predicting involves the soft sciences of politics and human behavior. The feds saved re prices especially coastal cali. It was spectacularly dissapointing to watch the dream of affordable housing be legislated into impossible one bailout at a time......

I would like to thank patrick for providing the uncensored forum for years which I enjoyed wasting much time on.

I think the whole buy to rent calculator MIGHT be useful in certain fly over states where there exists endless land with no real limits to what you can build (texas, etc).

I am constantly amazed at the flyover crowd who would post 'i paid 150k and got them down from 155k' type of nonsense. That kind of money is a kitchen/bath remodel in california (more if you add sq feet).

At any rate thanks to NOT listening the now disspeared idiots who predicted 1977 prices in coastal cal - I CAN RETIRE ANY TIME I WANT - THANK YOU BUBBLES BEN AND MR. GREEDSCAM!

15   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 2:08pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

How come this thread says I have 17 responses, but I only see 13?

16   bob2356   ignore (4)   2015 May 4, 2:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

The bubble site was mostly useless, but did have the occasional good advice mixed in with rascit rants.

I bought a house in 2012 and posted the details here. - 90% of the repsonses were 'youre going to go bankrupt, knife catcher'.

I'm now about to sell that house for 700k more than I paid for it. The market is crazy hot right now

700k appreciation in 3 years? That's quite a fairy tale even for california. What zip code would that be?

PockyClipsNow says

The real problem with a bubble/perma bear site is this: there exists NO WAY to make money off a NON TRANSACTION.

Sure there is. I put the difference between owning and renting away for 5 years until I moved to a much better area to own and I had a very nice 25% down payment. If I can rent for 20-30% less than owning I'll rent every time. Outside of CA there are markets where this is true.

17   curious2   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

tatupu70 says

Did you see the price of rentals in SF from the other thread?

You haven't linked and it's been nearly an hour, so I don't have any way of knowing which of the many threads on that topic you are referring to. In general though, SF rents reflect the fact that money-losing dot-cons can continue to pay high salaries thanks to federal policies designed specifically to prop up asset prices, and SF tenants pay those rents because it seems safer than buying while the game of musical chairs continues.

tatupu70 says

What makes you think another bailout will be needed?

I said it's already happened, pre-emptively, via the federal Hydra (Fed QE&ZIRP, federal guarantees of 97% of principal and allowing the remaining 3% to be gifted, etc.) If you imagine all of that was unnecessary and had no effect, then take your disagreement to the policymakers behind it not me.

18   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:26pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says

You haven't linked and it's been nearly an hour, so I don't have any way of knowing which of the many threads on that topic you are referring to

Sorry. This one:

http://www.patrick.net/misc/1%2F3+of+Cali+Renters+pay+1%2F2+Their+Income+on+Rent

19   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I paid 900k,
Its going to sell for 1.6m (worst case 1.55m)
Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years. No fairies needed.
I will be paying realtor commission, taxes on profit and I did spend 130k to fix it up so I sure do not get the whole 700k but I did save money *buy renting!* for years. but you simply cannot save this kind of money in 3 years, gotta play the mother effing game.

20   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 2:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Yeah I've been considering selling myself. I bought for $1.2m. Similar homes in my area have been going for $1.9 - $2.0. I'm considering just moving out of California and settling in a less tax heavy, less illegal alien, state.

21   HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2015 May 4, 2:47pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Goran,
Native Americans wish all illegals would leave their country

22   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Im going to stay in LA *and rent!* after I sell.
Any time i want I can move to flyover. They have basically no aprreciable appreciation of RE prices so there is never any hurry to buy there.
So what if a house goes from 150 to 200k. no prob. In fact in flyover the appreciation/prices of RE is so minimal I might rent long long term and travel.
No reason to actually buy if you can rent a sweet place for 1000 a month in any fly over state.

If you are thinking of selling you are about to miss the best time of year, when july/august is here its too late to get top dollar (school starts, then the holidays, so you would have to wait for spring 16 and I think thats an election year - uncertainty of that outcome might be bad for RE).

BTW the apartment i rented in 2011 went from 1400 a month for 1bd to 1800 for the same unit same building. (I still might pay it! its in non ghetto non s-8 area which is really pricey as they only rent to people with jobs or money)

23   Bitterenter   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The people at thehousingbubble.com are still hanging in there.

24   stillrenting   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 2:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The people at thehousingbubbleblog.com are still hanging in there.

They are certain it's going to pop - unsustainable.

When?

25   David9   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 3:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If I remember correctly, like Patrick said, discussing Housing and the 'Housing Bubble' is just plain boring now.

I agree with most points in Patrick's book, notably the Banks and the Housing Market are set up to win, like a Casino.

What is there more to discuss ?

26   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 3:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

Any time i want I can move to flyover. They have basically no aprreciable appreciation of RE prices so there is never any hurry to buy there.

So what if a house goes from 150 to 200k. no prob. In fact in flyover the appreciation/prices of RE is so minimal I might rent long long term and travel.

No reason to actually buy if you can rent a sweet place for 1000 a month in any fly over state.

While it's true you can get buy/rent houses for the prices you listed above, I'd be careful with those prices. It's not so much flyover country as it is rural areas. If you're OK living in a rural area, then you'll probably be able to find a cheap place, like you said. But if you want to stay in an area with shopping, good schools, etc. it won't be at those prices.

27   Nobody   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 4:22pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OK, there was a bubble. And it popped, however the 1% has managed to slither their way out of it by simply squeezing more from the middle class. Most of them are idiots, and they have absolutely no idea what is going on. They look at the 1% and think that we are OK and good shape. If we are in better shape, then why are we, the middle class, disappearing? Every data is looking better for the 1% and bad for the rest of us.

This site was originally conceived to educate people. I have realized that there is no cure for stupidity. So most of the smart people gave up and comes here only sporadically.

28   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 4:55pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

"I have realized that there is no cure for stupidity."

haha

29   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 4:56pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble.

30   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2015 May 4, 5:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

stillrenting says

They are certain it's going to pop - unsustainable.

We're past that now our whole economy and every sector is an unsustainable bubble.

Food - bubble
Energy - bubble
Rent - bubble
Stocks - bubble
Insurance premiums(all policies) - bubble
Health care(separate from insurance) - bubble
(makes the previous two a double whammy perfect storm bubble)
Education - bubble
Unemployment - pretend it does not exist and under report bubble
Automobiles - bubble

Unless the US dollar becomes as worthless as a Zimbabwean trillion dollar bill, will any price in our economy be sustainable in the long term, before a Max max dystopia revolution takes hold of not this country but the world.

31   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 4, 5:27pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Speaking of mad max, where the heck is ApocalypseF***? I need another reminder of how to eat face when SHTF.

32   stillrenting   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 5:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran _K:
"All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble."

Of the original housing bubble sites, thehousingbubbleblog is still well read, as I mentioned; most posters there are adamant that the housing bubble will pop, though they're vague on when. I read it every once in a while, like this site. It's true, the topic has gotten boring; for quite a long time there's been no major indicators or encouragement on the madness stopping - ever. The hopeful are sitting in their own pew.

33   CDon   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 7:26pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

SFace says

It's obvious Patrick does not know the factors into buy/sell. He uses more in the software science, math science with hard logic. I view it more from a social and behavior science or applied. If you know the calculator, it's just an input bias and nothing more.

That's one of the more interesting aspects I learned about. To the extent this site was dominated by coders, they seem to live in a black and white world where shades of gray or an answer of "it depends" doesnt exist. Time and again, you would see them apply some rule of thumb as gospel as if what they read or learned will axiomatically apply everywhere, and anyone who disagreed with them or add a shade of grey to their world would get a surprisingly emotion laden or otherwise curious response.

Great example, back in early 2012 when Tiny Tina noticed why year 1 rental parity was an absurd notion, I waded in very cautiously as I expected the zealous advocates like Patrick to mount a vigorous defense to his thesis - and the core of his beliefs. Instead, his only defense:


I'm waiting for rental parity.

When I saw that, and nothing more, I was dumbstruck. Tiny Tina hit on this too when he/she said:

tiny tina says


I'm waiting for rental parity.

No offense, but do you have any reason to think it will ever exist in the area you plan on buying? Your short post with no justification proves a secondary point that some people are hoping for something that may not exist and may never have.

Again, you would think that 12+ years of waiting and renting would cause someone to reconsider their thesis altogether. Absent that, where was the nuance? Where was the thoughtful analysis? Where was the "shit, I didn't think of that - hmmm, yes maybe year 1 rental parity is too much to ask for in a "premium area" like SFBA". I realize this is the internet where no one is ever wrong about anything ever. Still, if the core of everything you believe was under attack, and you could not mount even the most feeble of attempts to defend it, why continue to tout it as if you wait long enough it will come true?

34   CDon   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 7:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

stillrenting says

Goran _K:

"All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble."

Of the original housing bubble sites, thehousingbubbleblog is still well read, as I mentioned; most posters there are adamant that the housing bubble will pop, though they're vague on when. I read it every once in a while, like this site. It's true, the topic has gotten boring; for quite a long time there's been no major indicators or encouragement on the madness stopping - ever. The hopeful are sitting in their own pew.

This is another thing I noticed. By my estimation, 90-95% of those who came to the bubble blogs came to learn, buy near the bottom then get on with life. These people constituted about 50% of the comments on sites like this one or the HBB.

As to the other 50% of the comments, a great deal of these came from the angry, disillusioned, disaffected or disturbed (mentally or otherwise) individuals for whom posting on the internet is life itself. Be it here, HBB, Zero Hedge, etc., and be the subject matter housing, economics, politics, race, gender, etc. - no matter the topic they pontificate with the same amount of certitude as the world's foremost expert. None of these people cares to learn. None of them ever care about arguing endlessly with no possible hope of resolution to the topic. None of them care about how stupid they may look. Don't know what you are talking about? Doesn't matter, just eat shit and keep posting!

I check this place probably an hour a week in between task at work. As such, It took me 3 years to rack up 500 comments, and I am only here now because I am stuck at work and cannot leave until my client finishes their portion of mediation in the other room. Were it not for that, there is no chance I would be here now at late night or weekends or otherwise free time - life is too short IMO.

At the same time, there are posters here, Ben Jones, or any other survivor blog, that have been around as long as me but out post me me by a ratio over 20:1. You can tell from the date stamps intervals between posts, etc. they are here 10+ hours a day, 5 days a week. For these people the plan was never to "buy and get on with life". For them, the plan was "never buy, post about it, and in so doing, live life".

35   bob2356   ignore (4)   2015 May 5, 3:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

I paid 900k,

Its going to sell for 1.6m (worst case 1.55m)

Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years.

and the zip code was?

36   Bigsby   ignore (10)   2015 May 5, 9:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Your zip code isn't going to give away who you are.

37   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 9:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Yeah it was sad what happened to Roberto but he did kind of ask for it. He was actively belligerent with people instead of agreeing to disagree, then he posted his exact job title, the college he taught at, and his full name. That's asking for trouble on the internet. That being said, I generally liked Roberto, I hope he comes back under an alias.

38   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 9:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Whoa, no more housing forum?

You are just noticing this now???

39   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.

40   Bigsby   ignore (10)   2015 May 5, 10:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Looks like a hard life.

41   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 10:01am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

zzyzzx says

You are just noticing this now???

I haven't been to this site in nearly 2 years. :)

42   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 10:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

E-man says

Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.

Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.

43   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says

Yeah it was sad what happened to Roberto but he did kind of ask for it.

What's really sad is that you could actually think this.

44   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Good for pkennendy.
It takes a lot of time and energy to actually invest in RE.
When you do you actually do 'real work' , take real risk, spend real money and create real jobs, construction, facotories, resellers (home depot), re agents get work, title people.

Its easy to buy a stock and day trade but i doubt that adds much to your local economy, and doesnt 'fix up the ugly houses' like investors do when they buy to rent or flip.

This board was always infected with a bad case of 'landlords are evil, capitalism is evil' type of thinking. (that thinking keeps you poor just like renting 4eva does)

45   rpanic   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I just started looking at this site again after 3 or 4 years it is a different site but still thankful for finding it back in the beginning. It save me a lot of money, I almost bought a house around 2006-2008 learned a lot from here and it help me delay until 2011 bought at 330k now worth 600k.

46   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

thats awsome rpanic.
the low end has doubled off the bottom, the high end maybe up only 50 to 80% (coastal cali).
I would have done better buying 3 homes at 300k each instead of one at 900k.
and also i would have rented out 2 of them instead of paying the whole mortgage myself.
oh well 'next time' i will do that. I doubt RE 'can' crash 50% again - there is just too much in place to keep prices propped up. ZIRP, 1% CD rates, gov rules, etc.

47   bob2356   ignore (4)   2015 May 5, 11:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

Sorry I cant give zip code - too many internet stalkers here.

Bullshit there is no way anyone can track you down by posting your zip code in an anonymous board. Ok then what is the county? I'm very curious about where 80% appreciation in 3 years is the norm.

PockyClipsNow says



Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years. No fairies needed.

rpanic says

help me delay until 2011 bought at 330k now worth 600k.

There are 800 miles of coastal CA. Is it all increasing at 28% a year? I can't find a county in case shiller with anything near that. Shiller says orange county is up 33% from the bottom in 2011. That's 4 years for 33%, a far cry from 80%. or 95% in 3/4 years. Where are these mythical places?

48   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 11:29am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

They are in the good school district (racist code word for white/asian) areas of coastal cali. Case shiller does not filter out the ghetto/bad school areas like actual home buyers do.

Just look at santa monica on redfin.
Or malibu.
Or hermosa beach.
Or 'south of blvd' studio city,ca.

49   bob2356   ignore (4)   2015 May 5, 11:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

Case shiller does not filter out the ghetto/bad school areas like actual home buyers do

You are the one that said case shiller prices in the first place. Ok I looked at malibu. Bottom to top 2012 to 2015 36% up. That's a long way from

PockyClipsNow says



Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years. No fairies needed.

90% appreciation you are claiming. What ghetto/bad school areas are in malibu that are bringing it down so much. Still sounds like a fairy tale to me.

50   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 12:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.

51   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 12:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Set the wayback machine to 1999:
In November, [the company] closed a $62 million round of financing led by one of Silicon Valley’s biggest venture capital firms, Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at hundreds of millions of dollars. ... Like many tech start-ups, the company... doesn’t generate any revenue.
But wait, it's actually 2015.

52   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 3:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I guess I am exaggeratting the increase from 2012 a bit.

Im getting kool aid eye from all those billions of VC dollars

My webvan order never showed up so I'm hungry, my etoys orders are VERY LATE as well, (still no xmas presents!) I ordered some sports equipment from fogdog but now the website is down, but I think it might be my excite@home internet connection acting up because broadcast.com isnt working either - apparently Mark Cuban isn't running it anymore when did that happen.

53   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 3:47pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I guess a RE bubble blog not so boring after all is it people? Where is Thomas Wong 1986 and the 'prices at 1975 levels soon' guy.

54   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 5:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says

Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.

I don't think they care. They're in Brazil. He knows Patrick personally. He can ask Patrick to take the photos down if he doesn't like them.

Just to prove a point that taking risk at an appropriate time can yield huge returns. The same effort can be used to think of ways to make more money instead of save money. It works for us. Others should try sometimes.

He also got lucky that the Real lost a lot of value. When he moved there, the exchange rate was 1 dollar = 2.15 real. Now, it's over 3 real for a dollar. He's been living large. Lucky guy and gal.

55   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 5:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

EBGuy says

VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.

The biggest difference is that a lot of current start-up companies are making money compared to 1999 where a lot of companies were burning money. Although we're not at the peak yet IMHO, things are getting a little frothy out there. Just be careful.

56   someone else   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 7:03pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wow, this is like a family reunion, complete with drunken fights and all!

So touching! Sniff.

57   ChapulinColorado   ignore (2)   2015 May 5, 10:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Really miss this site being about housing, really can't get into the tech vibe. That is more for the entrepreneur with a niche for IT.

58   toothfairy   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 11:17pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

noooo! I came here to do a victory lap and bump some old threads :(

59   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 6, 8:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I agree with Chap. I miss the housing discussion. There was a lot to learn here.

60   Reality   ignore (5)   2015 May 6, 9:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

With the public ' s enthusiasm about tech stocks lately, I'm wary of their performance in the near future.

61   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 9:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

yes actually there was a lot to learn, if you didnt get the permabear virus infection from reading here too much.

If I had run a bubble blog like this one was - I would have banned the people who ruined the site.
Virtually unmoderated forums are fun for some things (fark?) but for business discussion to allow unbridled attacks, endless racist rants, wayyyyy off topic posts. Thats counter productive YET was one reason why it was fun? I guess natural selection is at play and the old site is dead.

Now it seems like a poor copy of tech crunch meets fuckedcompany.com 1999 (that was fun for a while, there was guy there called 'uncle stinkfinger' or something who would be just awful in every post like he lived there.lol)

62   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2015 May 6, 9:13am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I remembered fuckedcompany. What happened to that site? Why did it close down? I heard he got sued or something.

63   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2015 May 6, 9:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says

I remembered fuckedcompany. What happened to that site? Why did it close down? I heard he got sued or something.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_J._Kaplan

64   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 9:53am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

patrick could turn this into a fucked company type site if he was funny and could mock all the dumb start up ideas, that was fun especially during the crash year.

that site made money by charging a subscribtion fee to see all the unmoderated 'company gossip' that was posted, somehow that was useful to day traders/vc's?
mostly i guess ad revenue from high traffic was his main money? He outsourced the moderation (what little there was if any?) then it went down hill.
He would mock all the companies mercilesslly and got in trouble all the time for messing with thier logo or posting it etc.

I still remember when some lame big head shop went under, pivoted a bit, renamed themselves 'assentor' he had a headline with a tag line 'whatever renames itself Assentor (pronounced ass-enter)' and thats how i prounce it today- they are huge, ha!
He had lots of fun mocking the tech bubble he had comic images and one liners to insult any idea or company like i remember somehting like this:
Dot Com Business Plan:
1. Purple walls
2.. foosballl
3. surf porn all day
4. Profits!

Anyone who worked at a startup back then loved that humor.
I had an interview recently (a month ago!) where this place had gotten like 200m funding and was wayyyyyyy overstaffed. 5 guys interviewed me for 2 hours, whata waste of time. They do lame 'cloud' accounting software. This shit gonna crash again soon, if companies use the cloud to 'save money' then long term there should be less profits/jobs is that not obvious? I remeber when henry blodgett said '85 percent of these companies will be gone in a year' and the the SHTF no more play time on VC dollars (til now).

http://www.amazon.com/Fd-Companies-Spectacular-Dot-com-Flameouts/dp/1416577939

65   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 7, 12:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So who's going to buy Square? Should we start the bidding at $1 billion? Any takers?

66   MAGA   ignore (1)   2015 May 7, 12:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Sometimes I wonder if NAR got to Patrick.



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