Whoa, no more housing forum?
« prev   housing   next »

3
2

Whoa, no more housing forum?

By anonymous following x   2015 May 4, 10:17am 30,562 views   80 comments   watch   quote     share    


Haven't been back to Pat net in a while. Completely different. Looks like no more housing bubble discussion?

#housing

« First    « Previous     Comments 41 - 80 of 80     Last »

41   CDon   ignore (0)   2015 May 4, 7:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

stillrenting says

Goran _K:

"All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble."

Of the original housing bubble sites, thehousingbubbleblog is still well read, as I mentioned; most posters there are adamant that the housing bubble will pop, though they're vague on when. I read it every once in a while, like this site. It's true, the topic has gotten boring; for quite a long time there's been no major indicators or encouragement on the madness stopping - ever. The hopeful are sitting in their own pew.

This is another thing I noticed. By my estimation, 90-95% of those who came to the bubble blogs came to learn, buy near the bottom then get on with life. These people constituted about 50% of the comments on sites like this one or the HBB.

As to the other 50% of the comments, a great deal of these came from the angry, disillusioned, disaffected or disturbed (mentally or otherwise) individuals for whom posting on the internet is life itself. Be it here, HBB, Zero Hedge, etc., and be the subject matter housing, economics, politics, race, gender, etc. - no matter the topic they pontificate with the same amount of certitude as the world's foremost expert. None of these people cares to learn. None of them ever care about arguing endlessly with no possible hope of resolution to the topic. None of them care about how stupid they may look. Don't know what you are talking about? Doesn't matter, just eat shit and keep posting!

I check this place probably an hour a week in between task at work. As such, It took me 3 years to rack up 500 comments, and I am only here now because I am stuck at work and cannot leave until my client finishes their portion of mediation in the other room. Were it not for that, there is no chance I would be here now at late night or weekends or otherwise free time - life is too short IMO.

At the same time, there are posters here, Ben Jones, or any other survivor blog, that have been around as long as me but out post me me by a ratio over 20:1. You can tell from the date stamps intervals between posts, etc. they are here 10+ hours a day, 5 days a week. For these people the plan was never to "buy and get on with life". For them, the plan was "never buy, post about it, and in so doing, live life".

42   bob2356   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 3:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PockyClipsNow says

I paid 900k,

Its going to sell for 1.6m (worst case 1.55m)

Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years.

and the zip code was?

43   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Sorry I cant give zip code - too many internet stalkers here.
Lets all take 3 seconds to remember what happened to Roberto the professor who dared blog with his real name.
Who ever did that is STILL HERE.

I just ran the numbers again I'm on track to gross 600k in 2015 (gain on house after all expsenses plus salary as a 'coder'.)
Try doing that renting.
Iwog and roberto were best last posters of pat.net - anyone who did what they did, or just bought one house to live in, did very well.
(thanks iwogberto!!!!)

44   Bigsby   ignore (10)   2015 May 5, 9:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Your zip code isn't going to give away who you are.

45   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Of course it would.
You clearly are not a coder or you would know how to find out who someone is from clues they post. iwog let everyone know enough we could go visit him anytime we want if we cared to be lecured about austrian economics and why it sucks or whatever.

46   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Yeah it was sad what happened to Roberto but he did kind of ask for it. He was actively belligerent with people instead of agreeing to disagree, then he posted his exact job title, the college he taught at, and his full name. That's asking for trouble on the internet. That being said, I generally liked Roberto, I hope he comes back under an alias.

47   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:32am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

CaptainShuddup says

iwog says

Someone tell Goran he can't read me until he takes me off ignore. He's a bit confused.

Oh, do I have Iwog on ignore? Hmm. I think I remember actually putting him, tatupu, and Call it Crazy on ignore shortly before I left. I think they may have been the reason I left. Way too much arguing/clutter/insults.

I'll have to think about this one, nothing personal Iwog, I think you're intelligent when you want to be, but it sometimes gets muddled by all the back-and-forth you have with people.

48   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 9:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Whoa, no more housing forum?

You are just noticing this now???

49   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 9:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.

50   Bigsby   ignore (10)   2015 May 5, 10:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Looks like a hard life.

51   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:01am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

zzyzzx says

You are just noticing this now???

I haven't been to this site in nearly 2 years. :)

52   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

E-man says

Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.

Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.

53   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Goran_K says

Yeah it was sad what happened to Roberto but he did kind of ask for it.

What's really sad is that you could actually think this.

54   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Good for pkennendy.
It takes a lot of time and energy to actually invest in RE.
When you do you actually do 'real work' , take real risk, spend real money and create real jobs, construction, facotories, resellers (home depot), re agents get work, title people.

Its easy to buy a stock and day trade but i doubt that adds much to your local economy, and doesnt 'fix up the ugly houses' like investors do when they buy to rent or flip.

This board was always infected with a bad case of 'landlords are evil, capitalism is evil' type of thinking. (that thinking keeps you poor just like renting 4eva does)

55   rpanic   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I just started looking at this site again after 3 or 4 years it is a different site but still thankful for finding it back in the beginning. It save me a lot of money, I almost bought a house around 2006-2008 learned a lot from here and it help me delay until 2011 bought at 330k now worth 600k.

56   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 10:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

thats awsome rpanic.
the low end has doubled off the bottom, the high end maybe up only 50 to 80% (coastal cali).
I would have done better buying 3 homes at 300k each instead of one at 900k.
and also i would have rented out 2 of them instead of paying the whole mortgage myself.
oh well 'next time' i will do that. I doubt RE 'can' crash 50% again - there is just too much in place to keep prices propped up. ZIRP, 1% CD rates, gov rules, etc.

57   bob2356   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 11:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PockyClipsNow says

Sorry I cant give zip code - too many internet stalkers here.

Bullshit there is no way anyone can track you down by posting your zip code in an anonymous board. Ok then what is the county? I'm very curious about where 80% appreciation in 3 years is the norm.

PockyClipsNow says



Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years. No fairies needed.

rpanic says

help me delay until 2011 bought at 330k now worth 600k.

There are 800 miles of coastal CA. Is it all increasing at 28% a year? I can't find a county in case shiller with anything near that. Shiller says orange county is up 33% from the bottom in 2011. That's 4 years for 33%, a far cry from 80%. or 95% in 3/4 years. Where are these mythical places?

58   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 11:29am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

They are in the good school district (racist code word for white/asian) areas of coastal cali. Case shiller does not filter out the ghetto/bad school areas like actual home buyers do.

Just look at santa monica on redfin.
Or malibu.
Or hermosa beach.
Or 'south of blvd' studio city,ca.

59   bob2356   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 11:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

PockyClipsNow says

Case shiller does not filter out the ghetto/bad school areas like actual home buyers do

You are the one that said case shiller prices in the first place. Ok I looked at malibu. Bottom to top 2012 to 2015 36% up. That's a long way from

PockyClipsNow says



Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years. No fairies needed.

90% appreciation you are claiming. What ghetto/bad school areas are in malibu that are bringing it down so much. Still sounds like a fairy tale to me.

60   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 12:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.

61   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 12:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Set the wayback machine to 1999:
In November, [the company] closed a $62 million round of financing led by one of Silicon Valley’s biggest venture capital firms, Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at hundreds of millions of dollars. ... Like many tech start-ups, the company... doesn’t generate any revenue.
But wait, it's actually 2015.

62   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 3:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I guess I am exaggeratting the increase from 2012 a bit.

Im getting kool aid eye from all those billions of VC dollars

My webvan order never showed up so I'm hungry, my etoys orders are VERY LATE as well, (still no xmas presents!) I ordered some sports equipment from fogdog but now the website is down, but I think it might be my excite@home internet connection acting up because broadcast.com isnt working either - apparently Mark Cuban isn't running it anymore when did that happen.

63   Reality   ignore (5)   2015 May 5, 3:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Pooky,

There are people who have done better than Iwog or Roberto. In case you forgot, I was advocating multi-family buildings in 2012 if not earlier during the crash. I was also telling them why I did not want to disclose my identity (despite their challenges) months before what happened to Roberto took place.

I saved about half a million between 2005 and 2011 by renting (compared to buying a house similar to the one I rented), and since the bottom in 2011-12 I have doubled on the buildings that I bought with cash and far more than doubled on the buildings that involved leverage.

We shall see what the coming years will bring. Iwog is predicting massive crash in the next couple years, I think there is a rebalancing coming: crash for the mega million hot spots, but good returns in the zones that are 50 miles or so further out. You can book mark this prediction.

64   iwog   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 3:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Reality says

In case you forgot, I was advocating multi-family buildings in 2012 if not earlier during the crash.

Link?

Robert, E-man, and a few others including myself were not only actively buying from 2009 to 2012 but we were also detailing our purchases and encouraging everyone else to buy in an incredibly cheap market.

I don't recall "Reality" being on that list.

65   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 3:47pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I guess a RE bubble blog not so boring after all is it people? Where is Thomas Wong 1986 and the 'prices at 1975 levels soon' guy.

66   iwog   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 3:56pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PockyClipsNow says

I guess a RE bubble blog not so boring after all is it people? Where is Thomas Wong 1986 and the 'prices at 1975 levels soon' guy.

I think prices were supposed to be at 1975 levels by 2012 so that guy had to fly the coup or look ridiculous.

Thomas Wong 1986 was predicting a total collapse of Bay Area technology so obviously he'd look like a fool in today's tech boom.

80% of people buy at the top and sell at the bottom while 20% of people get it right. The fact that most of the bears have gone tells me that this RE bull market is getting very fatigued. 2016 can't come soon enough because I'm ready to get out.

67   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 5:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Goran_K says

Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.

I don't think they care. They're in Brazil. He knows Patrick personally. He can ask Patrick to take the photos down if he doesn't like them.

Just to prove a point that taking risk at an appropriate time can yield huge returns. The same effort can be used to think of ways to make more money instead of save money. It works for us. Others should try sometimes.

He also got lucky that the Real lost a lot of value. When he moved there, the exchange rate was 1 dollar = 2.15 real. Now, it's over 3 real for a dollar. He's been living large. Lucky guy and gal.

68   E-man   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 5:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

EBGuy says

VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.

The biggest difference is that a lot of current start-up companies are making money compared to 1999 where a lot of companies were burning money. Although we're not at the peak yet IMHO, things are getting a little frothy out there. Just be careful.

69   Reality   ignore (5)   2015 May 5, 5:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

@iwog,

You are welcome to search my posting history yourself. Unless there has been server data loss, my advocacy for further optimization by buying multi-family buildings instead of single family houses should be there. As well as my prescient thoughts on why I didn't think it was a good idea to give out my name or building addresses, despite your attempts to bully me, several months before Roberto faced the problem due to publicity.

I believe you and I had a similar argument back in 2013 when you challenged me to prove I was indeed buying multi-family buildings and renovating them to rent out. I showed you pictures of piles of plumbing components that were being readied to be installed into my buildings.

70   someone else   ignore (0)   2015 May 5, 7:03pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Wow, this is like a family reunion, complete with drunken fights and all!

So touching! Sniff.

71   ChapulinColorado   ignore (2)   2015 May 5, 10:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Really miss this site being about housing, really can't get into the tech vibe. That is more for the entrepreneur with a niche for IT.

72   toothfairy   ignore (1)   2015 May 5, 11:17pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

noooo! I came here to do a victory lap and bump some old threads :(

73   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 8:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I agree with Chap. I miss the housing discussion. There was a lot to learn here.

74   Reality   ignore (5)   2015 May 6, 9:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

With the public ' s enthusiasm about tech stocks lately, I'm wary of their performance in the near future.

75   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 9:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

yes actually there was a lot to learn, if you didnt get the permabear virus infection from reading here too much.

If I had run a bubble blog like this one was - I would have banned the people who ruined the site.
Virtually unmoderated forums are fun for some things (fark?) but for business discussion to allow unbridled attacks, endless racist rants, wayyyyy off topic posts. Thats counter productive YET was one reason why it was fun? I guess natural selection is at play and the old site is dead.

Now it seems like a poor copy of tech crunch meets fuckedcompany.com 1999 (that was fun for a while, there was guy there called 'uncle stinkfinger' or something who would be just awful in every post like he lived there.lol)

76   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 9:13am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I remembered fuckedcompany. What happened to that site? Why did it close down? I heard he got sued or something.

77   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2015 May 6, 9:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Goran_K says

I remembered fuckedcompany. What happened to that site? Why did it close down? I heard he got sued or something.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_J._Kaplan

78   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2015 May 6, 9:53am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

patrick could turn this into a fucked company type site if he was funny and could mock all the dumb start up ideas, that was fun especially during the crash year.

that site made money by charging a subscribtion fee to see all the unmoderated 'company gossip' that was posted, somehow that was useful to day traders/vc's?
mostly i guess ad revenue from high traffic was his main money? He outsourced the moderation (what little there was if any?) then it went down hill.
He would mock all the companies mercilesslly and got in trouble all the time for messing with thier logo or posting it etc.

I still remember when some lame big head shop went under, pivoted a bit, renamed themselves 'assentor' he had a headline with a tag line 'whatever renames itself Assentor (pronounced ass-enter)' and thats how i prounce it today- they are huge, ha!
He had lots of fun mocking the tech bubble he had comic images and one liners to insult any idea or company like i remember somehting like this:
Dot Com Business Plan:
1. Purple walls
2.. foosballl
3. surf porn all day
4. Profits!

Anyone who worked at a startup back then loved that humor.
I had an interview recently (a month ago!) where this place had gotten like 200m funding and was wayyyyyyy overstaffed. 5 guys interviewed me for 2 hours, whata waste of time. They do lame 'cloud' accounting software. This shit gonna crash again soon, if companies use the cloud to 'save money' then long term there should be less profits/jobs is that not obvious? I remeber when henry blodgett said '85 percent of these companies will be gone in a year' and the the SHTF no more play time on VC dollars (til now).

http://www.amazon.com/Fd-Companies-Spectacular-Dot-com-Flameouts/dp/1416577939

79   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2015 May 7, 12:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

So who's going to buy Square? Should we start the bidding at $1 billion? Any takers?

80   jvolstad   ignore (0)   2015 May 7, 12:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sometimes I wonder if NAR got to Patrick.

« First    « Previous     Comments 41 - 80 of 80     Last »


Comment as anon_f370b or log in at top of page: