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Got Housing Recovery?


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2015 Jul 17, 10:07am   14,089 views  24 comments

by smaulgld   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

Got Housing Recovery?

The homeownership rate is down.

New and existing home sales remain far below their 2005 peaks.

Housing starts for single family homes are flat.

What went wrong?

https://smaulgld.com/got-housing-recovery/

#housing

Comments 1 - 24 of 24        Search these comments

1   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 10:20am  

Housing starts flat for single family homes

2   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 10:28am  

Housing starts surging for rental units

3   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 11:15am  

Look how CNBC characterizes the most recent housing starts data http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/17/strong-us-groundbreaking-building-permits-boost-housing-outlook.html
"U.S. housing starts rebounded strongly in June and building permits surged to a near eight-year high, pointing to a rapidly strengthening housing market."

4   MAGA   2015 Jul 17, 1:27pm  

Lots of new high end apartments in the area. New house sales, not so much. I guess people are starting to figure out the rent vs. buy equation.

http://www.grandatdominion.com/

5   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 1:50pm  

Here is bloomberg's take on the new housing starts.

Why the Increase in Apartment Construction Isn't All Good News
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-17/why-the-increase-in-apartment-construction-isn-t-all-good-news

6   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 1:52pm  

Yes the increase has been in mulit unit rental homes not single family homes just like the increase in the labor force participation rate has been for senior citizens not prime age working "folks"

7   smaulgld   2015 Jul 17, 1:52pm  

jvolstad says

I guess people are starting to figure out the rent vs. buy equation.

Not just figuring it out but can't even think about buying because they don't have the downpayment and/or can't qualify for the mortgage

8   Strategist   2015 Jul 17, 7:48pm  

smaulgld says

Housing starts for single family homes are flat.

What went wrong?

Prices are too low. But not for long.

9   Strategist   2015 Jul 17, 8:07pm  

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

What went wrong?

See, I told you. Damn bankers say they have nothing to lend. :)

10   indigenous   2015 Jul 17, 8:08pm  

smaulgld says

What went wrong?

What went wrong is the Fed usurping the business cycle, robbing the economy of new jobs.

I'm not sure what chart you look at to see that?

11   smaulgld   2015 Jul 18, 5:22am  

Strategist says

Prices are too low. But not for long

Higher prices will make affordabiity worse

12   smaulgld   2015 Jul 18, 5:26am  

indigenous says

I'm not sure what chart you look at to see that?

The artificially low interest rates pull bad (malinvestment) and spending forward by offering low rates.
If there is not corresponding production and savings to back the spending OR returns from the malinestment, the recovery dissapates as consumers get tapped out on credit and businesses with no profits fail
The only way to prop up the consumer is to extend more credit and the only way to prop up unprofitable businesses is to give the high valuations so they can raise money on Nasadaq and stay in business

13   smaulgld   2015 Jul 18, 7:39am  

it really is a propaganda machine

14   indigenous   2015 Jul 18, 8:09am  

smaulgld says

The artificially low interest rates pull bad (malinvestment) and spending forward by offering low rates.

If there is not corresponding production and savings to back the spending OR returns from the malinestment, the recovery dissapates as consumers get tapped out on credit and businesses with no profits fail

The only way to prop up the consumer is to extend more credit and the only way to prop up unprofitable businesses is to give the high valuations so they can raise money on Nasadaq and stay in business

Yes Louis dead on, but where is the chart that shows that?

I don't want to hear any of that a priori crap, I want to see empirical proof as in the charts like any good "scientist" would demand...

15   Strategist   2015 Jul 18, 8:52am  

bgamall4 says

Lol, Business Insider says housing is on fire:

LOL. And you still don't believe it.

16   smaulgld   2015 Jul 18, 3:30pm  

indigenous says

I don't want to hear any of that a priori crap, I want to see empirical proof as in the charts like any good "scientist" would demand...

Not everything can be distilled to a chart. Economics is called a dismal science for reason!
What would "apriori" have to do with anything?

17   smaulgld   2015 Jul 19, 1:06pm  

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

NOTHING WENT RIGHT! NOTHING!

Better perspective! But the Fed and their apologists are taking victory laps re the housing "recovery"

18   smaulgld   2015 Jul 19, 2:44pm  

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

A 'recovery' based on accounting fraud is a crime by another name.

It's not just an accounting fraud

19   indigenous   2015 Jul 19, 4:11pm  

smaulgld says

Havent heard from him in a year

Lucky you!

20   smaulgld   2015 Jul 20, 5:39am  

indigenous says

Lucky you!

the ignore button works wonders

21   indigenous   2015 Jul 20, 6:53am  

smaulgld says

the ignore button works wonders

Now that is some of the best advise I have seen on Pat net.

22   hanera   2015 Jul 20, 5:33pm  

While two guys are debating, I'm wondering what is considered a healthy housing recovery? What should be the basis? 40% house ownership? 60% house ownership? Which year is the benchmark? Somehow I got the impression that USA is a nation of renters, typically 40% renters, 60% house ownership. Given that younger folks love to job hop (correct me if I'm wrong), what is the purpose of owning a house? Also, Americans prefer to get married later (correct me if I'm wrong), 35-40, so why need to buy a house?

23   smaulgld   2015 Jul 20, 5:36pm  

hanera says

40% house ownership? 60% house ownership?

Whatever the market decides, BUT there has been massive government intervention to create a homeownership society and all their programs have led to higher home prices and a lower homeownership rate

24   FortWayne   2015 Jul 20, 8:40pm  

I do miss investment forum. Some good discussion have been had there.

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