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Why do republicans deny an obvious recovery?


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2016 Feb 7, 2:20pm   17,693 views  58 comments

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I don't care about liberals or republican agendas...I prefer to see numbers and facts. Like a companies balance sheet etc

But what puzzles me is that whenever I talk to my die hard republican friends that they are so negative and deny an obvious recovery of the last 7 years...

#investing #politics

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1   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 2:21pm  

2   indigenous   2016 Feb 7, 2:37pm  

They are stuck in the crash of 2007 and the government overreach after.

As Logan points out the main thing missing from the conversation is demographics.

Either way this is the slowest recovery since the 40 s, similar to the 10 yr recovery of the Great Depression. Which in reality was created by government over reach as was the Great Recession.

3   mell   2016 Feb 7, 3:23pm  

Simple, they try to stick to their teams and find weak points such as most of the jobs gained are low income and rising inequality plus rising debt. It's what both sides do.

4   Tenpoundbass   2016 Feb 7, 4:07pm  

SubOink says

But what puzzles me is that whenever I talk to my die hard republican friends that they are so negative and deny an obvious recovery of the last 7 years...

Feet on knuckles, knocking the clinger on's free and clear so they don't count, and pollute the official narrative on the stats. Is hardly a recovery.

5   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 4:18pm  

Tenpoundbass says

Is hardly a recovery.

What needs to happen for you to agree on a recovery? Other then the numerous things that have already happened (housing, stockmarket, corp profits, unemplyment rate)?

6   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 4:20pm  

mell says

Simple, they try to stick to their teams

Yeah but thats the problem - when your team looses you gotta be able to say ...ok boys, we were wrong

7   Tenpoundbass   2016 Feb 7, 4:29pm  

SubOink says

What needs to happen for you to agree on a recovery?

Well if you were interested in the recovery, you would know that answer. It sounds like you're just happy with your situation as the NEW normal.

I'll give a teaser spoiler for my recoery answer though.

For that to happen I sould be able to call a friend(Non blue collar professional) on a lurch and ask him to go to the pub for a couple of drinks without it being understood upfront, that I was buying.

The Recovery isn't always about me or you. The sheer destitution out there and hoplessness in our youth generations is very disheartening and dismal.
Berine's supporters are his supporters because they give up. They are ready for government coupon for everything. They will just live and die their life as a cog in a socialist system. Because what is left of our free market democracy. Is enslavement, unless you've got $60K+ a year job skills. If you make less than $55K a year right now in a job that is maxed out, for that possition. Then chances are you'll never find another that pays that or more when you lose that one. The chances are greater that the best job offer you'll have if you're in that bracket, will a minimum wage job for less than 20 hours a week.

People making more than 60K tend to roll right into the next job. Unless it was a job for a skill that has been replaced by tech automation.

8   Blurtman   2016 Feb 7, 5:45pm  

You'd have to define the criteria for a recovery.

Here is one view, at odds with the touted low unemployment number.

Core Employment (Age 25-54) Still Below January 2000 Level, 3 Million Below 2007

Core employment first surpassed the level we are at today in January of 2000, 16 years ago.
Core employment hit a peak in January 2007 at 100.716 million.
Today, core employment is 3,133,000 below January 2007.
Today, core employment is 796,000 below the level 16 years ago.
Today, core population is 5,284,000 above the level 16 years ago

http://mishtalk.com/2016/02/05/core-employment-age-25-54-still-below-january-2000-level-3-million-below-2007/

9   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 8:31pm  

Ironman says

I prefer to see numbers and facts.

How's this:

this is the problem - no one says we live in a perfect world now...we are talking about IMPROVEMENT over the last term...not - lets summarize all existing problems including those that we have had for a century and peg it on this current president

10   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 8:34pm  

Ironman says

Maybe THEY are the ones living in the real world.

Far from it - more like Mars

11   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 8:35pm  

Ironman says

thank your previous republican presidents for creating this

12   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 8:41pm  

Ironman says

Retail crashing:

- Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

- KMart is closing dozens of stores.

- JC Penney shutting down almost 100 stores.

- Macys shutting 36 stores.

- The Gap closing 175 stores.

- Aeropostale clsoing 84 stores.

- Finish Line closing 150 stores.

- Sears shutting 100s of stores.

all Obama's fault?

13   Bellingham Bill   2016 Feb 7, 8:46pm  

Bush's two mideast wars + tax cuts pretty much destroyed the Federal budget picture, yes.

Reagan's defense spending boom didn't help matters here, either.

real (2015 dollars) defense spending.

And in response to the rise in post 9/11 offensive actions, Bush got tax cuts through the GOP Congress.

Funny logic, that.

(daaamn, the Reagan build-up was equal to TWO Vietnams)

14   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 8:48pm  

Iron Man - ok - that's right - things are just terrible and its all Obama's fault - got it ...

15   Bellingham Bill   2016 Feb 7, 8:59pm  

Is IMO a pretty good graph comparing big pictures.

red is 70% of the age 15-64 age population and blue is jobs

this shows that the late 70s were the most happy in terms of job expansion -- the steepest upslope in the blue line -- but working age population was growing so fast (median boomer turned 20 in 1975) unemployment was relatively high.

graph also shows that now is about as good as the Bush Boom years, though this is bit deceptive since it doesn't capture age 65+ still working.

The FRED only data I have is that age 65+ is now 15% of the population and 25% of them (non-disabled, with disability is 7.5%) are still working:

16   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:12pm  

Ironman says

Who's been President for the last 7 years presiding over the wonderful economy?

If it makes you feel better, you can blame Bush for these recent store closings!

You seriously blame Obama for the fact that shopping trend has been changing and going more and more towards online shopping ...OK THEN - You don't think that that's an issue that has nothing to do with who is president. Hey - maybe its all politicians fault that we use cars and carriage sales have plummeted since 1850...

17   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:19pm  

Ironman says

Then again. I'm still waiting on the great economic recovery graphs that you can post.

I am not gonna repost your DOW Jones chart because ....I am not sure what you are looking at on it ...I see a 7000 after the great run of republican president and I see 16000 after 7 years of a democratic president

but here you go ...



18   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:22pm  

To sum it up for ya in simple terms:

since 2009

- Stocks are up
- foreclosures down
- unemplyment rate down
- consumer spending up
- housing prices up
- record car sales
- record corporate profits
- jobs added every month (vs loosing jobs which he have been there)

you are right - there is no sign AT ALL that things are better now then 7 years ago....NADDA..

19   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:27pm  

To clarify what I mean with the DOW Chart...:) - here is what I see...

20   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:27pm  

please show me what YOU see...that shows things are WORSE now then in 2007 (on the DOW ...since you posted it first)

21   justme   2016 Feb 7, 9:43pm  

SubOink says (with my comments added in parenthesis)

since 2009

- Stocks are up (because Zero interest rates (ZIRP) has induced both rich and poor to gamble on stocks and housing AGAIN, rather than getting zero investment returns)

- foreclosures down (partly because Zero interest rates allows banks to sit on defaulted loans without foreclosing on them, and partly from reinflating housing prices)

- unemployment rate down (but you the taxpayer is paying for the stimulus, rather than the bankers, and EMPLOYMENT rate is still down)

- consumer spending up (see: stimulus)

- housing prices up (again because ZIRP allows wealthy people and hedge funds to scoop up distressed real estate, or allows people to overpay for housing again)

- record car sales (because car loans is the new area of subprime lending, and will soon blow up)

- record corporate profits (record profits per share, because ZIRP reduces corprate fundng costs both for job creation and for stock buybacks)

- jobs added every month (vs loosing jobs which he have been there) (see: stimulus and ZIRP paid by joe taxpayer)

Now, It is probably true that Republicans are against any form of progress in jobs and (poor) consumer spending, even if it helps corporations, as long as Democrats get any credit for it.

But in my reality-based progressive-leaning point of view (not always shared by other progressives), the problems are many. Increased housing prices are bad and also unsustainable by current wages. The wrong people are being rewarded by asset inflation in stocks and housing and bonds, and the wrong people are being punished for the previous excesses in lending. And the taxpayer, meaning you, is made to pay for both the initial morally wrong bubble-party of sloppy lending and the errant "fix" in the form of ZIRP. None of this should be hard to understand from a moral standpoint. As for Republicans, they generally do not have any moral standing and they are just against anything that does not make the rich richer and the poor poorer. It is that simple.

22   Blurtman   2016 Feb 7, 9:44pm  

SubOink says

To sum it up for ya in simple terms:

since 2009

- Stocks are up - the stock market has recovered, yes. But consider the impact of low interest rate fueled stock buy backs.

- foreclosures down - lending standards have been tightened, and bubble foreclosures resolved over time.

- unemplyment rate down - Not the whole story. If everyone stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be zero. You have to look at the labor force participation rate, and also Core Employment (Age 25-54) which has not recovered.

- consumer spending up

- housing prices up - Home ownership is far below where it was.

- record car sales - You'd have been touting NINJA home loans, too, when they were happening, I assume?

- record corporate profits

- jobs added every month (vs loosing jobs which he have been there) - W. Bush has the second worst job creation record of any president. Hoover is number 1.

you are right - there is no sign AT ALL that things are better now then 7 years ago....NADDA. - W. Bush is a very low bar. Worst president ever.

23   mell   2016 Feb 7, 9:46pm  

SubOink says

since 2009

- Stocks are up

- foreclosures down

- unemplyment rate down

- consumer spending up

- housing prices up

- record car sales

- record corporate profits

- jobs added every month (vs loosing jobs which he have been there)

you are right - there is no sign AT ALL that things are better now then 7 years ago....NADDA..

As said before, there was an organic recovery, there always is, but the extent of the recovery has been massively overstated, wrt UE by covering up the record dropout number from the workforce population, the low income job gains, the corporate and stock gains running on fumes with cheap money and fueled by ZIPR/QE, bad loans shifting from housing (too much spotlight and scrutiny for a while) to car and student loans, credit cards, runaway debt (continued) and a nation more divided and with more inequality than ever.

24   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 9:56pm  

What I am saying is ...there has been improvement - a recovery - call it a modest recovery then

What I am not saying is....everything is hunky dori and we have achieved prosperity unlike ever before...(well we have ....for the top 1%..but that's another subject :) )

25   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 10:02pm  

Blurtman says

To sum it up for ya in simple terms:

since 2009

- Stocks are up - the stock market has recovered, yes. But consider the impact of low interest rate fueled stock buy backs.

there is always a reason for everything but when we are talking about if things are better then up is better ...down is worse, agreed?

- foreclosures down - lending standards have been tightened, and bubble foreclosures resolved over time.

thank you Obama

- unemplyment rate down - Not the whole story. If everyone stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be zero. You have to look at the labor force participation rate, and also Core Employment (Age 25-54) which has not recovered.

sure but...have people honestly stopped looking for work? And do what?

- consumer spending up

- housing prices up - Home ownership is far below where it was.

thank you Goldman Sachs / Repugs - getting rid of regulations and giving every american a home until the bubble busts so that rich investors can scoop up those houses for half

- record car sales - You'd have been touting NINJA home loans, too, when they were happening, I assume?

you are comparing Car sales with worthless Ninja Bullshit Loans now ?

- record corporate profits

- jobs added every month (vs loosing jobs which he have been there) - W. Bush has the second worst job creation record of any president. Hoover is number 1.

you are right - there is no sign AT ALL that things are better now then 7 years ago....NADDA. - W. Bush is a very low bar. Worst president ever.

Right - but not in the book of the die hard republicans who will tell you Obama is THE worst president.

26   justme   2016 Feb 7, 10:03pm  

SubOink says

What I am saying is ...there has been improvement - a recovery - call it a modest recovery then

There has been a modest recovery. But the recovery is overrated, not sustainable, innocent people were punished by the downturn and made to pay for the recovery, and those at fault have been rewarded instead of punished.

As for Republicans, they are not reality-based and you can just forget about getting any sort of sensible opinion from them if it makes Democrats look good. Don't even bother trying, just point out the falsehoods and leave it at that.

27   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 10:07pm  

justme says

Don;t even bother trying, just point out the falsehoods and leave it at that.

very true !

28   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 10:09pm  

sorry folks on the post above - somehow the quoting got messed up - not sure how to fix it ...oh well

29   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 10:09pm  

I don't have you on ignore - maybe I should ? :) :) :)

30   anonymous   2016 Feb 7, 10:14pm  

Ironman says

SubOink says

foreclosures down

So is home ownership

thank you Mr. Bush

Ironman says

SubOink says

unemplyment rate down

Because less people are working

-

Jobs have been created - maybe not enough but it counts as an improvement

31   Dan8267   2016 Feb 7, 10:20pm  

SubOink says

But what puzzles me is that whenever I talk to my die hard republican friends that they are so negative and deny an obvious recovery of the last 7 years...

Facts mean nothing to them. They can't give president blackie a win, no matter what. To them, it would be like admitting Hitler did a fine job on the autobahn.

Of course, it does not matter to them how much their team fucks America
- committing treason by revealing the identities of CIA operatives to our enemies as those CIA operatives are trying to prevent terrorists from getting nukes
- deliberately sabotaging the economy
- starting wars to raise the price of gasoline
- letting 9/11 happen so that "America gets another Perl Harbor" and they can push through their agenda
- torturing innocent people
- blowing up innocent children, you know, pro-life stuff

But let a black president get credit for a good economy or killing the lead terrorist behind 9/11, that's unthinkable. I give credit to Obama for both those things, and I don't even like his policies. But conservatives cannot admit they are wrong about anything or that the other side is right about anything.

32   Blurtman   2016 Feb 7, 10:48pm  

SubOink says

sure but...have people honestly stopped looking for work? And do what?

It sounds hard to believe, but folks are living at home with their parents, hiding out in school and waiting for better times, perhaps participating in the underground economy. Here is one explanation, but others might point to the lack of boomers' retirement savings and the rising employment rate of the over 65 group as at odds with the aging out boomers explanation.

"The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that there’s a pretty clear reason. “An unusually large number of people have stopped looking for work,” CBO analysts wrote in a broad-based analysis of the labor market published back in February. ........ Some folks do appear to have dropped out of the workforce all together. The BLS counts a category of people called discouraged workers (fifth chart)—those who haven’t looked for a job in the past four weeks, specifically because they believe there aren’t any jobs for them. Even though they want work, these people aren’t counted as part of the labor force because they’re not actively looking.
And, indeed, years into the economic recovery, the number of discouraged workers remains high. This is related to “unusual aspects of the slow recovery that led workers to become discouraged and permanently drop out of the labor force,” wrote the CBO."

http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/

"you are comparing Car sales with worthless Ninja Bullshit Loans now ?" - Not just me. Subprime Auto Loans Have Got Regulators Worried http://fortune.com/2015/11/20/subprime-car-loans/

33   anonymous   2016 Feb 8, 7:01am  

Blurtman says

It sounds hard to believe, but folks are living at home with their parents, hiding out in school and waiting for better times, perhaps participating in the underground economy

If you are in school then great - you are furthering your career

Sitting at home and not even looking...seems pretty far fetched - we all know that if you want a job you can have a job

34   Tenpoundbass   2016 Feb 8, 7:03am  

Obama did peachy that's why there's a billion person strong army working tirelessly around the clock to continue Obama's legacy. NOT!!!!!

35   indigenous   2016 Feb 8, 7:07am  

Obama sucks. Because of Obamacare, Frank-Dodd, Common Core, did not ease up on war.

The real problem is the legacy this asshole leaves.

But undeniably the economy is improving: DESPITE Obama

36   mell   2016 Feb 8, 7:29am  

indigenous says

Obama sucks. Because of Obamacare, Frank-Dodd, Common Core, did not ease up on war.

The real problem is the legacy this asshole leaves.

But undeniably the economy is improving: DESPITE Obama

A little hyperbole, but generally agreeable. Meanwhile the wheels are coming off Obamacare and more and more people are reporting such dramatic deductible increases that they are far worse off than before. The market is not having it either.

37   indigenous   2016 Feb 8, 7:53am  

mell says

Meanwhile the wheels are coming off Obamacare

Will it be repealed?

38   mell   2016 Feb 8, 8:01am  

indigenous says

mell says

Meanwhile the wheels are coming off Obamacare

Will it be repealed?

If Trump wins, yes. If any of the Cuckservatives wins, it is questionable. Paul would also have pushed for a repeal but he is not going to win. If the Dems win it won't be repealed for sure. The problem with such monstrous legislature is that once it is enacted it is very hard and costly to dismantle.

39   indigenous   2016 Feb 8, 8:05am  

Tru Dat, like any other agency once paycheck become dependent on it...

40   anonymous   2016 Feb 8, 8:13am  

Ironman says

Because it's all been financed, not paid with cash:

when is it ever cash?

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