The days of a 25% guaranteed return are over......ARLP
« prev   random   next »

6
6

The days of a 25% guaranteed return are over......ARLP

By iwog following x   2016 Mar 4, 10:46am 21,916 views   86 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


But you can still get over 20%. =)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ARLP

#investing

Comments 1 - 40 of 86     Next »     Last »

1   lalalala   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 12:00pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

It's not guaranteed.

2   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 12:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

lalalala says

It's not guaranteed.

I'm personally guaranteeing it and if it fails to deliver. I'll extend unheard of sympathy.

3   lalalala   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 12:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

lalalala says

It's not guaranteed.

I'm personally guaranteeing it and if it fails to deliver. I'll extend unheard of sympathy.

Not good enough. How about a kneecap? ;)

4   man   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 6:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Iwog, how confident are u on arlp? What % of ur stock portfolio would u put in it? I put 10k (ira) each in arlp and kmi last week. I waited for psx xle wfx abt but they went up. I have lot of dry powder. I have been struggling between nnn commercial investment, land in dallas, single family foreclosure in florida, stocks, or just wait.

5   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 6:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

man says

Iwog, how confident are u on arlp? What % of ur stock portfolio would u put in it?

I bought a rather large chunk. I wont say how much, but it's a significant portion of my non-real estate assets now and the only equity I'm holding. I've owned it now on and off for about 10 years and I've done a lot of research on it. When I bought it around 10.50 and posted the trade to the board, right before it went x-dividend, you could have gotten yourself an instant rebate of 6% on the purchase price. Incredible.

It's income stream isn't going anywhere and this dividend is very affordable by the company so I'm not worried.

6   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 4, 6:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)
12.46 Up 0.51(4.27%) 4:00PM EST
P/E (ttm): 5.78
EPS (ttm): 2.15
Div & Yield: 2.70 (24.46%)

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States.

7   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 4, 6:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

From their messageboard:

bucketuse • Feb 25, 2016 4:18 PM Flag

hate to do it

but bailing out . hope for recovery looks as promising as Clinton telling the truth about anything.

8   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 4, 6:55pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

I bought a rather large chunk.

It was a good call. Do you think the rally in commodities is for real this time? I guess it does not matter for ARLP. Just have to hold it for five years to make your money back.

9   TwoScoopsPlissken   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Holy Crap, what a P/E ratio.

Hmmm....

10   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 7:49pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

tr6 says

It was a good call. Do you think the rally in commodities is for real this time? I guess it does not matter for ARLP. Just have to hold it for five years to make your money back.

Yup. The economy is going too good and everyone is scrambling for bad economy stories to bolster the Republican's narrative but there isn't any. I would think oil has put in the lows and therefore coal will naturally benefit. It's feeling a lot like 1995ish actually.

11   just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 7:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

I would think oil has put in the lows and therefore coal will naturally benefit. It's feeling a lot like 1995ish actually.

Do you own oil too?

Looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the tip.

12   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 8:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

just_passing_through says

Do you own oil too?

Nope, just real estate, bonds, and ARLP and a few coins I have left over in the bank deposit box.

13   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 4, 8:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

It's feeling a lot like 1995ish actually.

Was not really paying attention to economy back then.

14   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 8:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

tr6 says

Was not really paying attention to economy back then.

The media was really pushing the double-dip recession narrative while unemployment kept dropping and the GDP kept rising and things were getting better as the internet started to take off. Finally the stock market took noticed and started it's bubble.

15   Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Mar 4, 8:46pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

It's feeling a lot like 1995ish actually.

Yeah, peoples' thesis is we haven't had a recession for a while so it's time for one soon.

I think that's crap.

blue is consumer debt / personal income (left axis), red is the interest rate environment (prime - annual wage inflation), right axis

I include the latter to show how the Ford-Carter-Reagan recessions were largely courtesy of the Fed trying to keep borrowers from leveraging up.

2008-2010 knocked many for a loop so we're still in recovery, and have the boomer echo age 16-34 now, just about halfway into the workforce.

Oldest boomers are turning 70 now, so they're starting to leave, finally. Median boomer is 61.

16   FortWayne   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 4, 8:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

This looks insane. How much did you invest into that Iwog?

17   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 4, 9:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

FortWayne says

This looks insane. How much did you invest into that Iwog?

Lots. Bought it at 13 then bought it at 12 then bought it at 11 then bought it at 10.

I'm averaged in at 11 or so.

18   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 5, 12:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

forward pe is 9. You can't make sense of this just looking at numbers. Why is pe ratio going up? What are their prospects?
Usually a yield that high means trouble.
They are paying more dividends than their profits, btw. They will cut this.

19   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 5, 6:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says

They are paying more dividends than their profits, btw. They will cut this.

Very likely however I'm not going to complain if it only pays 10% instead of 20%.

20   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 5, 7:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Lots. Bought it at 13 then bought it at 12 then bought it at 11 then bought it at 10.

I'm averaged in at 11 or so.

You are human after all. I thought you bought the entire stake all in one day.

21   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 5, 8:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

tr6 says

You are human after all. I thought you bought the entire stake all in one day.

Nope. Dollar cost averaging is my friend.

22   Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Mar 5, 8:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Very likely however I'm not going to complain if it only pays 10% instead of 20%.

So much for the "guaranteed 25% return" in that case then.

23   man   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 5, 8:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog, ARLP has 43% insider ownership which is excellent. How does it compare to its competition? How come its doing fine when other coal companies are suffering heavy losses? Please share your thoughts.

24   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 5, 9:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

If I were going to make an investment in the energy sector right now, I would avoid anything coal related and probably buy an oil major.

25   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 5, 9:15am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Bellingham Bill says

So much for the "guaranteed 25% return" in that case then.

iwog says

I'm personally guaranteeing it and if it fails to deliver. I'll extend unheard of sympathy.

26   FortWayne   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 5, 9:26am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Lots. Bought it at 13 then bought it at 12 then bought it at 11 then bought it at 10.

I'm averaged in at 11 or so.

I've doubled down on a few things too. But I've never seen anything with this level of divident payout. I'm tempted to buy some myself for a long haul. My problem is I know nothing about their business. Any advice on how long to keep it? You are the pro here, so I'd love any advice you can pass this way.

27   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 5, 9:36am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

FortWayne says

. Any advice on how long to keep it? You are the pro here, so I'd love any advice you can pass this way.

I owned it from 2004 until 2014 when I made the "dump everything" announcement. Their growth during that time has been spectacular. The bottom line is 40% of America's electricity still comes from coal. That is going to drop but it will drop slowly. ARLP is the best of the entire sector and has actually been GROWING while other corporations have been failing. Seriously nothing is guaranteed, but this company will stay profitable and will pay double-digit dividends even if they have to cut. I'd keep it at least as long as it takes to double in price but I wouldn't even consider selling until we're headed into a recession.

28   SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 6, 9:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Yup. The economy is going too good and everyone is scrambling for bad economy stories to bolster the Republican's narrative but there isn't any

Then the stockmarket should break 2000 (1999.99) next week...?

29   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 7:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog, do you know why their debt rose by 100M in the last three years? It seems like they should be paying that down.

30   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 8:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

bought 100 shares just for fun.

31   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 7, 8:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Yup. Doesn't bother me. Coal is slowly dying, I think everyone can agree with that.

However it still generates 40% of the electricity in this country and ARLP keeps climbing up the mountain faster than it sinks into the muck. It needs aquisitions to do this and that requires debt.

Although this was the situation in 2014 too, no one cared and drove the price of this partnership to the $50 range before the price of oil broke.

32   Done   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 8:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

SubOink says

Yup. The economy is going too good and everyone is scrambling for bad economy stories to bolster the Republican's narrative but there isn't any

The real story is the world is in risk/off for the most part and there is only 1 place to go for premium ROI; USA.
If US players, play risk/off in this environment they will be sadly mistaken with their decisions and take
trying to play the same game...

Then the stockmarket should break 2000 (1999.99) next week...?

Easy sneezy and likely sooner than later...

33   SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 7, 9:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I like ARLP IWOG...great tip - why the hell is it down today when most energy is up?

34   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 10:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

tr6 says

bought 100 shares just for fun

200 now.

35   SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 7, 12:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

what happened there today? first heavy down now 6% up :)

36   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 1:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

SubOink says

first heavy down now 6% up

Actually 666

38   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Mar 7, 2:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog, did you break 100K in profit today?

39   iwog   ignore (3)   2016 Mar 7, 2:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

tr6 says

iwog, did you break 100K in profit today?

I'll never tell although that 6.66% is the profit of the beast so watch out!

40   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2016 Mar 8, 11:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

owever it still generates 40% of the electricity in this country

Well, the US is the Saudi Arabia of coal but be aware that:
Natural gas is also forecast to account for 33% of all U.S. electric power generation in 2016, beating coal’s 32% of generation. If this forecast comes true it would be the first time ever that natural gas has provided more electricity generation than coal.

Comments 1 - 40 of 86     Next »     Last »


Comment as anon_d8415 or log in at top of page: