patrick.net

So, let's see:

you think a paper predicting a crash in 1991 is "good advice"
you couldn't see buying a home in san diego 3 years ago as a good decision.

26 years on, the economy hasn't crashed. DOW is up what 10 fold?
3 years on, you'd have made $100K plus if you bought virtually any home in your neighborhood, probably more.

How stupid do you have to be, to not see how stupid you are?

jazz music says

The markets for used houses bottomed in 2012 because nobody here or anywhere WAS SMART ENOUGH to see it as a good time to buy for good reasons too:

LOL. A lot of people here purchased homes at the bottom.

jazz music says

there was (still is) considerable shadow inventory and tremendous reason to perceive major down side risk.

Are you serious? Based on what? what information? what data? homes in the foreclosure pipeline have dropped 75% nationwide. In many states, there are actually less than prior to the bubble. In many markets, prices are now testing bubble highs, so your entire premise is too stupid to believe.

It is unfrocking believable.

jazz music says

Except the short sales which were typically quite a waste of time.

I remember one guy on here that bought a whole bunch of them. Maybe I'll contact him and see how it turned out...

jazz music says

Not a lot of people felt so cocky about those calculations and that's why the few buyers were hard-nosed. I mean buyers were looking for bigger write downs than banks were willing to part with, offering lowball offers for distressed property at auctions and entering into protracted short sale contracts. (unless you were well connected locally) Results: no sale. (most of the time)

jazz music says

I expect to find out that the bank didn't accept them.

Your knowledge about housing and economy is laughable. Stick to poetry.

"In a book published in the late 1950s Friedman laid out his view. The key was that the Treasury should sell off all its gold in the marketplace over a period of 5 years, go to floating exchange rates, and have the Fed increase the money supply at a fixed rate every year—he didn’t give the rate. [laughing]"

That is what the Fed does now. Friedman did plenty of harm.

Dan8267 says

chickens, because their small anuses

Technically, chickens don't have anuses. I think he likes the sound effects that chickens make. Preferably organic heirloom varieties.

I bought in 2011 and again in 2013, not because it felt like the right move, but because the numbers made sense. Where I was, renting would have been a shitty option. Plus, it looked clear that the masters of the universe were not going to let housing free-fall and blow up the financial system. Clearly, lots of people made the same decision. Otherwise, prices would not have risen as much.

jazz music says

I did get a lot of likes on that limerick, troll. I should write a verse on you.

If you do, can I be some kind of a "Shylock"

I understand most of the people here only know economics in the form of 4 walls, but would've been nice to see one or two posters who looked like they actually read the article respond.

You have to have a long term perspective to understand the point of the article. The predicted economic collapse will be unprecedented, as stated, and likely will occur before we reach 50 years off the gold standard. The flight into more liquid assets, or simply dollars is already quite advanced.

NuttBoxer says

You have to have a long term perspective to understand the point of the article

And you have to understand that not being right "yet" isn't being wrong.

When I said the Cubs were going to win the World Series 30 years ago, I wasn't wrong. Neither was my grandfather when he said it 100 years ago. You just need to have a "long term perspective" to understand.

I think this is mentioned in the article, but additional context. Gold and Silver have been the coin of trade since the dawn of time. They are according to our constitution the only legal money(specie). What we did in 1971, and more importantly 1935(abandoning Silver Standard), are unprecedented moves in the history of the world. Floating exchanges are unsustainable, and I believe quite soon will meet a catastrophic demise.

NuttBoxer says

Gold and Silver have been the coin of trade since the dawn of time

That's not really true.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ancient/history-money.html

Cattle, cowrie shells, bronze, copper, leather, beads, and paper(started in 800AD in China) were used for long periods in history. Gold and silver are far from the only currency.

NuttBoxer says

and I believe quite soon will meet a catastrophic demise

Why so soon? We've been rolling along since 1935 with no silver standard. What is different now? Furthermore, what is fundamentally untenable about a money base that is not tied to the amount of a material that can be dug out of the ground?

If you want more people to read your story, you should fix the link.

NuttBoxer says

I understand most of the people here only know economics in the form of 4 walls,

some of the posters on here know a great deal more about economics than you. most, actually. NuttBoxer says

You have to have a long term perspective to understand the point of the article. T

All paper currencies will eventually collapse. But then again, in the long run, we are all dead. So, your point?
this article is from 1991. At that time, I was only a couple years into my career. I'm retiring in 8 months. If you are letting your investment/economic philosophy be influenced by points of view that have literally been wrong as long as an entire work life, you are a moron. in the 90's we had high inflation, which was the genesis for fear about currency collapse. Today, inflation is a non factor. IF inflation returns, which it almost certainly will, buying a home with a long term low interest rate will turn out to be brilliant. As one of the posters with actual knowledge of economics, i'd recommend you read how housing prices did during and after currency collapse in such places as Weimar republic, etc. you'll be in for a shock. You past on buying a sub rent price home in San Diego 3 years ago, which was moronic. It may go down as he worst financial decision of your lifetime, and yet persist in reading doom and gloom analysis in a vain attempt to rationalize what was an utterly terrible decision.
tatupu70 says

And you have to understand that not being right "yet" isn't being wrong.

Yes, it actually is. If you have to wait till after you die, for your investment ideas to come to fruition, it is kind of as wrong as you can be. 26 years is a long time to wait for this financial collapse. Long enough for anyone sane to do the opposite, make huge profits, and move on with their life.

blowmeironvagina says

Yes, it actually is.

(I was being sarcastic)

blowmeironvagina says

26 years is a long time to wait for this financial collapse. Long enough for anyone sane to do the opposite, make huge profits, and move on with their life.

In the meantime. The GDP continues to growth record levels year after year.
The stock market is at record highs.
Real Estate is around record levels in many cities.
Rents are at record levels.
I guarantee the next 10 years will be no different.

Nuttboxer, you are so bitter at being wrong and missing opportunities, that you pray every day for a sustained economic collapse. We had the worst economic crash since the great depression, and came out of it alive and kicking. The best you will get is recessions every few years.
I suggest you stop being a jerk, and buy an entry level home wherever you can. It's the best advise you will ever receive.

Anyone that paid anything close to listing price is not stupid,just merely foolish.
They probably had to finance so they could pay interest on top of overpaying.

tatupu70 says

Cattle, cowrie shells, bronze, copper, leather, beads, and paper(started in 800AD in China) were used for long periods in history. Gold and silver are far from the only currency.

Are you picking at the concept of gold and silver exclusivity over the bigger picture of paper has always been redeemable for something of real value?

Chinese paper was more of an official letter than a bank note, again was for the purpose asserting claim to something of real value, never for standing on it's own.

YesYNot says

If you want more people to read your story, you should fix the link.

Site was down yesterday(bad timing). It's working today.

blowmeironvagina says

All paper currencies will eventually collapse. But then again, in the long run, we are all dead. So, your point?

I have kids, maybe you don't that's why you only care about right now. Someday they will have kids. It's my responsibility as a parent to teach them better than leverage yourself out the wazoo, and pass the buck to those who come after you. Your view is self-centered, short sited, and egotistical to to the extreme.

Tell me, where the houses in Germany still standing after WWII? Hitler was a direct outcome of economic crisis in Germany. Now we have people going nuts for an insider like Trump. Not comparing the men, just the mentality of people who are desperate, and the foolish outcome it often leads them to. Forget about a war in the US, what will happen to cities in the kind of collapse this interview predicts? How valuable will your city house be when it's no longer surrounded by the resources as people abandon places with large populations, and not enough anything. You think truckers are still going to ship to you when the paper they're paid in isn't worth the gas for their truck? Do you plan to sell your stucco to run water from a dam or river hundreds of miles away?

Maybe you're not short sited, maybe you're just not smart enough to think this far ahead?

Strategist says

Nuttboxer, you are so bitter at being wrong and missing opportunities

Sounds like your fishing for a reason to ignore me. I love the decisions I've made, the freedom I enjoy, and assurance I have against systems I can't control. Maybe you wish you weren't stuck, and financially SOOL in the face of what's coming, so your best option is to find excuses to stuff your ears with.

NuttBoxer says

Are you picking at the concept of gold and silver exclusivity over the bigger picture of paper has always been redeemable for something of real value?

No--not at all. I'm showing you that it wasn't always redeemable for real value. Beads had very little utility. Even gold has dubious utility for the vast majority of the population--other than being shiny and pretty, what use does the average Joe get out of gold.

Why do you attribute "real value" to gold?

NuttBoxer says

Tell me, where the houses in Germany still standing after WWII? Hitler was a direct outcome of economic crisis in Germany. Now we have people going nuts for an insider like Trump. Not comparing the men, just the mentality of people who are desperate, and the foolish outcome it often leads them to. Forget about a war in the US, what will happen to cities in the kind of collapse this interview predicts? How valuable will your city house be when it's no longer surrounded by the resources as people abandon places with large populations, and not enough anything. You think truckers are still going to ship to you when the paper they're paid in isn't worth the gas for their truck? Do you plan to sell your stucco to run water from a dam or river hundreds of miles away?

Are you under the impression that collapses didn't happen under a gold standard? Depressions were much more prevalent and deeper under "sound" money than now.

NuttBoxer says

I have kids, maybe you don't that's why you only care about right now. Someday they will have kids. It's my responsibility as a parent to teach them better than leverage yourself out the wazoo, and pass the buck to those who come after you. Your view is self-centered, short sited, and egotistical to to the extreme.

By being a loser who has is forced to move, showing your kids that NOT living up to your legal agreements is good, and pay rents that keep increasing, instead of paying a mortgage that is by and large fixed, and, had you bought 3 years ago per YOUR THREAD on here, would be the same as rent then, let alone rent now?

I have paid off homes, what are you going to leave your kids again? please do tell!

NuttBoxer says

Maybe you're not short sited, maybe you're just not smart enough to think this far ahead?

says the loser who passed on at least $100K in appreciation, had he bought 3 years ago...

jazz music says

I did attend an advertised Orange County private auction in 2008 which was not worthwhile and a 2010 courthouse steps auction in Ventura and found it uninteresting and rigged for local insiders who must have made a prior deal with the bank.

I'm guessing that this is typical everywhere.

zzyzzx says

and a 2010 courthouse steps auction in Ventura and found it uninteresting and rigged for local insiders who must have made a prior deal with the bank.

utter bullshit. How the hell is an auction rigged? they call out the property, people bid until the final offer. I've been involved in the process several times.

you have to pay cash in 24 hours, at least here, and if you make a mistake and the house is a wreck, too bad so sad. So, it isn't for the faint of heart.

but to claim it is rigged is just moronic.

bgamall4 says

Everyone has a God given right to walk away from a toxic loan, and the Fed made those houses underwater by crushing the NGDP. So, people have the right to walk away if you understood a thimble full of economics.

nobody talking about loans, crazyone. the OP was refusing to move out of his rental after being given legal notice. Do I have the right to just stay in a hotel a few more days cause I don't feel like leaving?

bgamall4 says

blowmeironvagina says

showing your kids that NOT living up to your legal agreements is good

Everyone has a God given right to walk away from a toxic loan, and the Fed made those houses underwater by crushing the NGDP. So, people have the right to walk away if you understood a thimble full of economics.

Yeah right. Why did they take that loan in the first place? (They were greedy) If things work out as planned, you are a genius. If they don't, it's a toxic loan and you have a right to walk away from it.
As a taxpayer, I had to pick up the tab.

bgamall4 says

So, point is, Strategist, there was not full disclosure that the government and the private central bank had no plans to sustain the housing bubble. That is fraud in my book. The Zionist Fed will face the judgement at the end of time. It won't be pretty.

You want the Fed to disclose prices would collapse. LOL

Strategist says

blowmeironvagina says

showing your kids that NOT living up to your legal agreements is good

Everyone has a God given right to walk away from a toxic loan, and the Fed made those houses underwater by crushing the NGDP. So, people have the right to walk away if you understood a thimble full of economics.

Yeah right. Why did they take that loan in the first place? (They were greedy) If things work out as planned, you are a genius. If they don't, it's a toxic loan and you have a right to walk away from it.

As a taxpayer, I had to pick up the tab.

the OP was on a LEASE. he was refusing to leave after being given notice. I've already told you this once, and yet you keep talking about loans. You mentally ill idiot, he didn't have a loan. THAT is what I called not living up to your agreements. In addition to your mental illness, you seem to have reading problems.

blowmeironvagina says

As a taxpayer, I had to pick up the tab.

the OP was on a LEASE. he was refusing to leave after being given notice. I've already told you this once, and yet you keep talking about loans. You mentally ill idiot, he didn't have a loan. THAT is what I called not living up to your agreements. In addition to your mental illness, you seem to have reading problems.

Calm down blowme, I think you got the wrong man. I was merely responding to Gary's wild assertions.

bgamall4 says

Of course it does

Banks make their own decision about risk. Even if the Fed adopted Li's copula, banks were free to lend or not lend at their own discretion.

bgamall4 says

By the way, China rejected Basel 2 completely. Our politicians sold the middle class down the river by allowing Basel 2 and the Fed to misprice risk.

The Fed doesn't price risk on mortgages, banks/S&Ls do.

bgamall4 says

The Fed and Basel adopted Li's copula. Look it up.

So what? Banks don't ask the Fed if they can make a loan or not.

bgamall4 says

How do you think they were able to fund the loans? They were able to fund the loans through securitization. They could pawn the loans off to others. So, securitization worked so well because people wanted the AAA rated bonds that were the result of the securitization. Only they turned out to be bogus AAA. There weren't really AAA. Insurance companies and others would have never been able to buy them had they been rated correctly.

Of course, but all of this is possible without any Fed action on anybody's copula. Wall St., banks, and ratings companies all worked together.

tatupu70 says

Depressions were much more prevalent and deeper under "sound" money than now.

One example? Let me preface it by saying sound money requires zero leveraging. I.E. any paper currency must be 100% backed by specie.

bgamall4 says

No, without bogus AAA ratings, the securitization would not have happened.

I do not believe the S & P would have adopted the copula if the Fed (Basel 2) had not first approved it.

You seem to be implying that S&P actually believed their AAA ratings when they made them. If so, you're one of the few.

The ratings companies were in on the scam. They wanted the extra business and $$ and the only way to keep the gravy train running was to hand out AAA ratings.