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Teslas are unreliable rubbish.

By Tenpoundbass following x   2016 Jun 11, 3:44pm 4,188 views   105 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


http://www.vox.com/2016/6/9/11880450/tesla-doomed

Few companies have enjoyed more hype over the past few years than electric carmaker Tesla. And not without reason: Tesla is the most successful automaking startup in decades and has almost singlehandedly made electric cars cool. Yet the automaker has also been struggling with the quality of its vehicles.

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25   Onvacation   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 7, 11:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
like the combustion engine does.

I thought it was the battery that combusted?
26   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 11:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The advantage to the gasoline engine in the cold is that you heat the cab with waste heat instead of having to generate heat by running electrons across a resistor.
Also the longer the engine runs in the cold, the better it performs as it warms up. But there’s no such curve for an EV since very little waste heat is developed to keep the car warm.
I would think they’d be better in the heat because of not generating excess heat that must be radiated away or the engine will overheat, cook the seals, leak and then seize.

Given these facts, I think the best all-around vehicle would be a hybrid.
27   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 7, 11:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

In another 5 years your average Electric Car will cost well over $60K with subsidies.

Stop dreaming!
28   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 12:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
There is no comming AI or Robot revolution. This is the Shitlibs trying to sell the younger generations early on Socialism.
Beat their can do spirit and psyche down early before it develops. And get them used to the idea there wont be any opportunities for them in their Adult life.
Because AI and Robots will have taken the jobs all away from them. So here's some socialism to comfort you.


Don't worry, the socialist countries with $30 minimum wage union jobs are highly incentivized to automate. Of course we will be slower to do this and be un-competitive in manufacturing anything, and you will be happy when America walls itself from world trade completely to keep the old economy going.
29   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 7, 12:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

People like you champion Socialism because you get the big house, the case of 30 year Scotch, the Cases of Caviar, and the luxuries from abroad while everyone else eats pets and Zoo animals. OF course the people that got on board early end up one of two ways.

Dead in a lime pit along with their whole family. As they can't be trusted they were instrumental in Overthrowing a viable government. If allowed to stay alive it would only be a matter of time before they grew disillusioned with the Revolution and would want to overthrow the fat cats living high on the hog at the top.

Or they become one of the Fat cats at the top that keeps the Thumbs Down list of people to hoist out of their house at night and put a bullet in their heads.

Which one are going for? It's a tough choice with a blurry line so chose wisely. Often the Gustapos end up in the Limepits as well, when the Dictator has had enough of their incompetence.

You better go with Trump if you want to Live.
30   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 Feb 7, 1:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yeah, Tesla pretty much sucks. The SUV type one with the gull wings is really ugly.

Chevy Volt is pretty good; if my present car seemed likely to die I would consider a Volt.
31   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (36)   2019 Feb 7, 1:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Used cars in the northern states when advertised would make a point of accentuating the efficiency of the car's heating system. In a place like Detroit 'good heater' would a must to be taken seriously by potential serious buyers. A car that fails because people use the heater is just an insult.
32   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 2:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
People like you champion Socialism because you get the big house, the case of 30 year Scotch, the Cases of Caviar, and the luxuries from abroad while everyone else eats pets and Zoo animals. OF course the people that got on board early end up one of two ways.


Fun game, let's act like social policy from capitalist countries like Canada, Japan, UK, etc., turns you into Venezuala.
33   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 7, 3:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
There is no coming AI or Robot revolution. This is the Shitlibs trying to sell the younger generations early on Socialism.


The so-called AI revolution will affect white collar jobs, much more than blue collar ones during that next 20 years.

In effect, ppl like auditors and actuaries will see 80% of their work, done by computers, along with paralegals and lawyers who only do case research. In itself, a white collar work depression will cause more societal havoc than a blue collar one because ppl believe that their college degrees confer some cultural value when it doesn't.
34   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 7, 3:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

AI is great at finding rotten grapes out of a million grapes on a conveyor belt in a split second and kicking them out. That same skill is also great at matching up facial features in an ID picture to a million people walking through an Airport terminal or busy City Street.

It can not process why Report numbers are off based on the instructions the Manager or Boss gave them.
It will not go back and look up the old price list to compare to the new price list update to realize the wrong numbers were fed in. Unless an analyst or someone instructed it to do so But that just makes one of them redundant, never fire the smart one. The one that figured it out and came up with the solution. In that case the human instructed AI to dig deeper than the data provided

AI is NOT machine learning to the degree they would have you believe. The Tesla robots still can't figure out why sometimes parts line perfectly and other times it has to beat them so bad they are damaged beyond repair. A human can slide his pinky under the part and finesse the bolt into place so the holes line up, or realize something has to be bent or tweaked in specific direction.

AI will be set up and programed to something one way and one way only.
35   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 4:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
AI is NOT machine learning to the degree they would have you believe. The Tesla robots still can't figure out why sometimes parts line perfectly and other times it has to beat them so bad they are damaged beyond repair. A human can slide his pinky under the part and finesse the bolt into place so the holes line up, or realize something has to be bent or tweaked in specific direction.


There's little AI used in this kind of robot automation.

I wouldn't bet against AI progress with the kind of self taught general intelligence coming out of DeepMind.
36   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 7, 5:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's good for telemetry and spacial recognition for quality control and when precision is required.
The complex stuff that takes a talented individual to do, a 1 in a million person with those skills. And the AI is better at it.
It's good for security recognizing and eliminating threats. The kind of stuff any well trained human staff can do. Better but probably not more reliable. As humans don't have sensors and lenses to clog up and don't have electronic parts that can go on the fritz and software malfunctions.

It's not good for the most basic stuff the least intelligent Human is capable of. The type of skills where each individual leaves its mark. It's not going to come up with new ideas to make its job easier. It's not going to adapt to environmental job changes. "Oh Shit it's raining, help me bring the signs inside!" "Oh crap the bathroom is overflowing, pick the humidity sensitive equipment off of the floor and call the plumber and get someone to shut off the water main.
The type of sophistication in that kind of cognitive AI would be out of most businesses reach. Those that can use AI automation to cut down on repetitive procedures will do so. But we wont ever see in our lifetime or in three lifetimes where Rosie the Robot takes over everyone's Job. Even George Jetson had a job to go to. Rosie was the Maid.
Spacely Sprockets depended on good old fashioned human brains.
37   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 7, 5:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think Stone Age Man could eventually defeat any AI land roaming robot currently in production or development.
As long as the Man had the numbers advantage.
38   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 7, 5:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
I wouldn't bet against AI progress with the kind of self taught general intelligence coming out of DeepMind.


You don't need general AI, to eliminate a vast majority of white collar jobs. Most ppl are stupid and do stupid stuff, all day long.

Walk into a place like Bank of America, Fidelity, or Metlife and ask yourself why is there so much headcount at those places? Many ppl are dealing with stupid fact checks, verification, and producing countless spreadsheets more or less, saying the same thing.

When I grew my firm, we automated so much, that we used all of our savings to hire the very best prop trader out there, which made the firm millions. By keeping headcount in check, we had the most productive workforce and as a result, grew w/o wastage and general corporate stupidity. Now, in the future, as more and more AI tools come online, watch those companies: BofA, Fidelity, and Metlife and see how far their payrolls drop over time.
39   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 7, 5:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
"Oh Shit it's raining, help me bring the signs inside!" "Oh crap the bathroom is overflowing, pick the humidity sensitive equipment off of the floor and call the plumber and get someone to shut off the water main.


General security, which is what you're describing is already automated (with access cards/electronic doors, location sensors, cameras, etc) and has managed to lower costs so much, that an average security guard earns only $15/hour. And in the future, the great addition will be cameras which can pre-identify threats, even before they occur but in general, that won't affect the careers of security guards. I can't say the same for some joker working at Fidelity.

Tenpoundbass says
Unless an analyst or someone instructed it to do so But that just makes one of them redundant, never fire the smart one.


Yes, one worker where there used to be a team of ten.
40   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 7, 5:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
Yet the automaker has also been struggling with the quality of its vehicles.


I own an Accord and have never had a problem. In fact, I don't even recall a major repair of any sort, just regularly scheduled maintenance for tires, fluids, belts, and brakes.
41   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 6:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
Chevy Volt is pretty good; if my present car seemed likely to die I would consider a Volt.


You should also consider a Bolt. I got one in December and it is absolutely the most fun and fastest car I've ever owned. Awesome torque and acceleration (just 1 second slower than the Tesla 3 base model) and the 240 mile battery range which is plenty for my daily 50 mile work commute and monthly trips up to LA and back from San Diego. I just plug it in in my garage every 2nd or 3rd night to keep it topped off. Granted I live in a perfect climate for EV's and don't need to use the heat.

Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.
42   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.


And that's a part of the point; it's the future. As of right now, the ICU called the Toyota Corolla costs ~$18K and pretty much, $10K-$14K in the 2-3 yr year used markets. That's affordable for 90+% of the general population to transport them from home to work w/o any additional infrastructure to our current society. These are low maintenance, highly effective vehicles for the everyman in society.

Think about that and compare it to the horses of the early 1900s. Horses got sick, crapped all over the place, and were a public health nuisance esp in crowded cities like NYC, Philly, Chicago, and Boston. It was inevitable that they would be replaced by something mechanical and within a few short years. That's the nature of pent up demand.

Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid. In reality, however, depending upon income, that Corolla (all incomes) or Maxima (upper middle incomes) get the job done. As for battery tech and dealing with the cold weather, well, like I said ... the future. Let future designers work that out, build a model which rivals the Corolla in terms of price/performance/reliability and then, you'll see a brand new world of EVs.
43   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 8:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid.


I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger. I'm saving over $150 a month compared to comparable sedans I was in the market for like Accords, Passats, Sonatas, Mazda 6's when you factor in gas and maintenance because I have a fairly large commute and the cost of gas in California is pretty expensive.

I think the next 3-5 years will be interesting. There are alot of new EV's coming out from Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM and battery prices keep coming down.

Everything comes down to the battery tech. Solar and other renewables will make alot more sense once we have ways of storing energy produced during the day with low cost (and safe) batteries.
44   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 8:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger


It's not the tree hugging thing; it's a Silicon Valley excitement thing much like the first iPods. SV products are the 'California Dreaming' of today's times. Musk is its greatest cheerleader.

That Bolt is in effect a Maxima, which is an upper middle class income car. So yes, EVs are making an entry into that space but again, it's not general enough for the country as a whole. The average non-indebted Maxima owner can easily afford a tank of gas and not be in the queue for recharging stations.

Also realize, California is not the country; both the northeast and the midwest have severe winters where in effect, having gasoline in the tank, like in my Corolla example, gets one some ~350 miles per fill-up regardless of the outside temperature. And Corollas are half the price of the Maxima which gives one some 4K+ gallons of gas which is some 100K+ miles. I suspect that most ppl would like to swap cars at that point in time which makes the Corolla one of the best cars for the working person. I used to know Corolla and Civic drivers, whose cars lasted till 250K miles with original engine & transmission.
45   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 9:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.
Compare a TM3 to a BMW 3 series, and higher for Model X, S.
I dont defend Teslas, I did not buy one. They are luxury cars.
Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.
True that from an economical pov, Teslas dont pencil out no matter how hard one tries.
But you get, quiet rocket-ship g's, sexy looks and unsurpassed energy efficiency.
Luxury cars buyers:
1) They are well-off. The list price delta is insignificant to them. Like <1% of their net worth, who cares.
2) They feelTesla cool is so compelling they are willing to pay extra for it. Fine with me.
3) They are going to buy luxury ICE anyway, so Tesla is competitive. Look a BMW headlight replacement cost $1000. I am not joking.
4) They have business write-off that makes it worthwhile.
5) They drive a shit ton of miles a year and electricity cost is free or extremely low for them.

I am not going to write a small book on why it is advantageous for me to drive a PHEV, using an average of 90-95% electric vs gas duty cycle.
Here is a graphical composite of why it works economically for me. Why solar PV and EVs are a match made in heaven.
46   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 9:10am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You're lucky with your parking situation: where I work one must move their EV off the charger after 2 hours. Dropping everything and running out to move the car gets pretty old pretty quick.
47   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 9:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Teslas are the only somewhat fun vehicles among all the EVs (except maybe i8). The rest are rather meh on that department.
48   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 9:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
Those that can use AI automation to cut down on repetitive procedures will do so. But we wont ever see in our lifetime or in three lifetimes where Rosie the Robot takes over everyone's Job. Even George Jetson had a job to go to. Rosie was the Maid.
Spacely Sprockets depended on good old fashioned human brains


Jobs that are mundane will be replaced, especially anything on an industrial scale where training AI to do the job will be economical. Other jobs will always be around, but will be augmented by AI to make people more productive. No different than computing or advancements in tooling that we have now, compared to what we had just a few decades ago. Any significantly advanced technology looks like magic.
49   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 9:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
Jobs that are mundane will be replaced


It really depends on how complex the solution to make that job redundant would be.
If a business owner is only making a set amount of money that he can afford the cheap labor doing the mundane task.
If a robot hardware and software cost more than the ROI would ever be during the lifetime of that solution. Then it would never be replaced.

Just try to imagine all of this automated shit going on in city, town or neighborhood. Where nobody is even working. So people will be in the way. Since they wont even own cars, they will be walking and think they own all of the roads. The Automated cars, and transportation and auto delivery robots will be a huge liability. Accident incidents will be quite common.

If nobody is working, where will B2B robots deliver to, and who or what will come receive it. Are Robots going to go to supply houses to pick up their materials. Or will the materials be delivered to job sites? Will all of these Robots crashing into each other and creating bottle necks as they wait for the previous robot to get serviced by the Robot Clerk so they can get their bill of materials and leave. Will they be like...

"Hey Man... er Robot! Hurry UP! Time is Money, you're costing me Money!"
"What do you mean did we send over the PO, don't be silly the Toaster told me this morning he sent PO in!"
"What? It wont be here until next Week? Now what am I supposed to DO? I came all the way from Vero Beach to do this job. My schedule is booked all next week."
"I need Call my Boss!"

And what in the hell will they be making More Robots? They wont be making consumer goods, that's for sure!
50   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 10:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous they can do FB, work, relax or have sex while waiting.

"Toll-Booth Attendant : Toll-booth attendants are reported to earn an average annual salary of $45,000 per year. This salary exceeds the national average, which is notable considering that this job is relatively low-skilled and requires no post-secondary education. It is also reported that the highest paid toll-booth operator salary in Maine in 2009 was $76,219, which is an impressive 85% more than the national average annual salary."
51   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 10:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What would you have him do? Practice his hold up and armed robbery skills?
52   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous


What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).
53   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 10:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous


What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).

We are talking about joe-six-pack's job being eliminated by AI.
Autonomous level =>4 will enable people to be more productive with their commuting time which for many is wasted and is physically tiring.
Autonomous driving tech is a form of AI. The key to understanding it is, there are different level of AD and for different regions. (Warm/Cold, Urban/country, Interstate/City...)
AD on decent weather days, on 3D mapped, machine learned geo-fenced routes are completely doable, even today.
For many commuters that is exactly the case. They drive the same route, get on the interstate, arrive at a big city, drive to the work place parking and reverse to go home.

Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.

It makes no sense to pay someone to do a job that can be done cheaper and with higher quality than a human with attitude.
54   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 11:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.


See? The tech was available and reliable 15 years ago (I would argue it's more like 25, but whatever). And still there are guys doing the job which is supposedly "unnecessary". The tech for autonomous driving is not even in production yet, let alone dead-nuts reliable. It's anybody guess when (and if) it will be rolled out on a massive scale. Which means that many of the people you feel sorry for are most probably safe in their jobs for the rest of their working years.
55   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 12:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.
56   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I bet $ on L4 rollout within 5 years.
With regions lagging, of course.
AD EVs will enable this:
10X reduction in cost of transportation. Cars are used only 5% of times on ave. If Uber type AD service can up that to 80%, service EV run 100k mi annually, service life .5 to 1 million miles. Most people would find it makes sense to own fewer cars or no car.
New generation are not so fixated on car ownership.
ATM did a number on tellers.
CAD did ait to drawing drafters.
Soon AI farm machineries will do to agriculture.
Gov, unions don't count, they don't need to compete.
Gotta work, talk later.
57   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.

Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on. What us true is technology has always created more opportunities and new higher skill and pay jobs for those that qualify.
Will this continue to be the case in a quantum leap in machine capabilities, machines that never stop learning and improving ? Idk.
58   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 12:22pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.


The comparison was to the upper middle class Maxima. The Corolla was the everyman's working car, regardless of socioeconomic bracket. And as I said, Maxima owners, who're not fully indebted, can afford gas.

kt1652 says
Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.


In the northeast and the midwest, where the cold weather decimates the batteries, a cheap ICU, like the Corolla, will always offer 350 miles per fill-up, regardless of the temperature outside. And then take that savings delta, between that an any EV today, and you get 100K miles of gas paid for, which is about the time when most ppl trade in their vehicles for something new.
59   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden no way have plenty of sunlight. Parking near me since I'm dictating this while driving
60   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden norway have plenty of sunlight. Pardpn since I'm dictating this while driving
61   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 12:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on


There are industries that automated and when that machinery for the automation became obsolete or needed replaced or repaired. Many of that automation returned back to human labor. Because they realized they were swept up in the hype of automation.

The support and tech staff required to keep automation can be ten times the cost of human labor. Also there is too much expected out of simple automation.

I even see it here at my job. Where I take PO's and Sales Orders and covert them to Dye Sublimation print jobs. They are now capable of batching many orders together and printing it. But when it comes to time to close 100 orders at once, with the South African built clunky ERP system they use. It's shits out them from time to time.
It's not because of one simple reason. It's because of many reasons. They set up new Substrate, but didn't set up every field required in the ERP to allow dispatch of inventory. The Customer has gone over the credit limit, someone forgot to allocate stock from one warehouse to the default warehouse to use for the Order and Customer type.
This is all stuff that requires a human to go through at the end of the day and catch any Sales orders that didn't close out automatically.
There's nothing I can do, there's magic wand this ERP simply will not dispatch inventory when it doesn't see all of the data it needs. Some has to do QA and make sure all of the T's are crossed and I's are dotted. They think they can come back to me like my process failed. But it's bad data entry. Another process is this South African Piece of Crap ERP gets overloaded with processes. So the folks in the back at the end of the day will throw 120 orders at it to close out at the end of the day. They all end up in Suspense.

They could get a New ERP which they are in the process of doing. But even that ERP will have locks and checks and balances that will prohibit records from being inserted and ledger codes being hit when it sees a problem. That's just the nature of a Sarbanes-Oxley Compliant ERP software that is required by law to have.

Of course I wrote a process that catches all of the errors before they happen and email or inform those interested parties. The problem is, nobody wants to own that process. I told a person in a meeting this week about it. I can spend all day being the Order QA and logistics specialist or I can Program I can't do both.

Can AI create the Substrate collection, act as the buyer of wholesale goods, and the supplier for the businesses we service and create all of the patterns and color ways, print the jobs and calibrate the colors, ship the product and mark the records shipped without a human?

Probably but then nobody would be willing to pay $500 a yard for the material that it would take to cover that much AI sophistication.

You automate as much as you can, it just makes the employees you have to keep lazy and counter productive to your automation. You're better off making everyone do it by hand and give them impossible deadlines.
62   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So where are in agreement that computers and the internet made us much more efficient and productive right? Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers
63   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 1:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The OpenAI Dota 2 bots just defeated a team of former pros. And it wasn’t even close. By Vlad Savov on August 6, 2018", (Google Vice)
To be good at video games require exceptional hand-eye coordination, quick reflexes, big picture awareness, concentration. The same qualities to be a good driver. If the machine can beat professional gamers, it won't be long until it can beat average impaired drivers. They don't need to be the best, just better, which means safer.
64   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 2:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers


You should Ebay Servers and see the stacks of Servers about half the size of sky scrappers that came from failed start ups.
65   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 2:16pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

No argument here. SV is built on bodies of failed startups. I was on a team that took over the failed op of one network co. One of the last enginger there said he worked on 5 srartu p s in 10 years, all failed, options worthless. He looked like a beaten man. 9 in 10 goes bkrpt. But when they win, the world is changed.
The real reason mergers rarely work, all the failed personnel are still running the show. They may all talk the talk, but don't know how to walk.
Deadwood is organization's cancer.
66   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 3:52pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips


I think 98% of the driving population don't drive more than 50 miles a day. So even during the polar vortex, the battery range of the newer EV's is plenty. The key is the ability to charge at home. I would never get an EV if I had to rely solely on public charging infrastructure unless my office had it.

I've got my wife's minivan for the rare longer trip and to haul my longboard to the beach.
67   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 4:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
The key is the ability to charge at home.


I dunno, socal.

The car company claims that my partner's plug-in hybrid gets 100 miles per 25 kwhr.

In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.

If 100 mi/25 kwhr is to be believed, it's $0.0675 per mile.

Running in pure hybrid-only mode (not using the plug in battery) we've been reliably getting 65 mpg, paying $2.999 per gallon. That's $0.046 per mile for gasoline. Compared to $0.0675 per mile for at home battery charging. I looked at the other billing plans. Those would make a small change in the PG&E bill, but nowhere close to equivalence.

So we don't charge it at home. Just the "free" charging stations.
68   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 4:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BACAH, assuming your calc is right. The problem is your cost/kwh.I also have PGE, which may be dead man walking - rates are not good but worse, must go up. I have EV1 plan, nite rate 9cent/kwh when I charge. If you have solar pv, it can be free. Yes, pv cost, all that. PV have a service life of at least 20 yrs. I am amortizing breakeven 6-8 yrs is fine.As is my EV electrons does not affect this at all.
You shouldn't compare PI-P with Hybrid Prius. Hybrid is already a partial EV. Compare it to an similar ICE.
69   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 7:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
Of course I wrote a process that catches all of the errors before they happen and email or inform those interested parties. The problem is, nobody wants to own that process. I told a person in a meeting this week about it. I can spend all day being the Order QA and logistics specialist or I can Program I can't do both.

Can AI create the Substrate collection, act as the buyer of wholesale goods, and the supplier for the businesses we service and create all of the patterns and color ways, print the jobs and calibrate the colors, ship the product and mark the records shipped without a human?

Probably but then nobody would be willing to pay $500 a yard for the material that it would take to cover that much AI sophistication.


It sounds like the problems here are "human error". Each step in the process could be automated, it's just a matter of whether it's cost effective or not. You could certainly have a business that does all of the research and engineering and sells it to 10,000 businesses. Much of your process is not rocket science and already automated by Amazon - orders, payments, sourcing, shipping. All a human has to do is scan some bar-codes and slap on some tape.

If it's something one off, very specialized to a particular small business operation, you're not going to have that fully automated until you have a general AI that can learn the ropes quickly. It's going to happen but give it 20 or 30 years.

Things like self-driving will be first, where once you build an AI driver you can duplicate it 100 million times making it extremely cost effective. The job of driving single trucks will be replaced by the job of supervising a flock of autonomous trucks.
70   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 9:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Prius MPG is outstanding - if one can get 65 mpg reliably, it is the hyper-miler sphere.
When I had a 2012 Prius PI, I bested just north of 50.
So if your partner is so good driving in hybrid mode, carrying a big battery around is not going to help much!
https://www.befrugal.com/tools/electric-car-calculator/

71   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2019 Feb 9, 9:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The problem with AI is environmental perception.
72   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 9, 10:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.


Dang, that is pretty high. In San Diego County SDG&E offers an EV plan for "Super Off-Peak" where they only charge $.09kWh midnight to 6:00AM during the week and midnight to 2:00PM on the weekends. I have to pay an additional $16/month for that plan, but I should only be paying about $50/month to cover 1,200 miles if my math is correct. I just changed over to that plan last month and haven't seen my first bill yet, so we'll see.
73   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 10:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin said compare Maxima to M3. In reality, no one who buys a TM3 will look at a Maxima.
Maxima is dated tech - old man's idea of family sedan.
Just for kicks, I used a Model S because it is more like a family vehicle.
I used my typical driving parameters, costs of fuel/e, distances...
I left out service cost, too hard to predict.
EV will have much lower maintenance cost - so being conservative.
Where things get interesting is my second graph, when the asset utilization go up by 10X, it is no contest, S wins.
This is the business model for transportation as a service, not ownership, driving up asset utilization by 10x multiples.
Uber, Lyft and others plan for future transportation cost disruption.
74   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 12:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This robot freaks me out.
DeepBlue beating chess champ was brute force computational.
AI beating pros at DOTA2 was machine learning, teaching itself by playing 17k years' equivalent.
This world belongs to the young. I dont think I saw a +50yr old in the entire video.



edit: DEEPblue hehe
75   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 9, 12:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says

In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.


PGE has time of use plans for EVs. It was around 10c per kWh at night. I didn't check the latest cost since we have solar.
76   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 1:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Rin said compare Maxima to M3. In reality, no one who buys a TM3 will look at a Maxima.
Maxima is dated tech - old man's idea of family sedan.
Just for kicks, I used a Model S because it is more like a family vehicle.
I used my typical driving parameters, costs of fuel/e, distances...
I left out service cost, too hard to predict.
EV will have much lower maintenance cost - so being conservative.
Where things get interesting is my second graph, when the asset utilization go up by 10X, it is no contest, S wins.
This is the business model for transportation as a service, not ownership, driving up asset utilization by 10x multiples.
Uber, Lyft and others plan for future transportation cost disruption.



Where does one buy new ModelS for $50K? I'll take two at that price.
77   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 1:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

From BeFrugal EV cost calculator.
Think 2012 price, includes 7500 tax credit, too low for Maxima also.
Yeah, it will raise the starting point by 20K, right graph new Breakeven at 10 months...
The big picture, area under the curve does not change meaningfully for decision making...the slopes does not change.
Let's call it even, in light that a ICE engine would need rebuilding 2 times to reach .5 million miles. hehe.

78   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 1:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
a ICE engine would need rebuilding 2 times to reach .5 million miles.


Um, no: the most-recent example of modern ICE engine reaching 1M miles (Toyota Tundra) was not rebuilt even once. Still has original transmission too.
79   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Not in a Uber, Lyft, Cruise...service model. They are driven like mules, not by gentle owners.
If you're that 1 in 250000 Toyota, it is chery picking data.
I worked with a German born engineer, he drove his MB diesel to 500K miles.

Rebuilt engine, transmission, exhaust system a coupla times, seats reupholstered, even radio bracket broke.
He was one of those OCD mechanical engineer, driving a diesel engine known for longevity.
You cannot have a business renting out clunky, smoking, knocking cars everyone knows should be junked.
When ICE owners reach 1M odometer miles, they make the news.
https://autoweek.com/article/wait-theres-more/hyundai-elantra-owner-drives-1-million-miles-5-years
80   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 2:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Not in a Uber, Lyft, Cruise...service model. They are driven like mules, not by gentle owners.


Toyota in question was driven by parts delivery dude, not some "gentle owner". I fail to see how the model of driving 125K miles per year delivering parts is different from driving same amount of miles "delivering" people.
81   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 2:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
I worked with a German born engineer, he drove his MB diesel to 500K miles.

Rebuilt engine, transmission, exhaust system a coupla times, seats reupholstered, even radio bracket broke.


Yeah, German-fucking-cars with their "special maintenance items" unknown to the Japanese and American brands. If you want to compare best EV to ICE - compare it to the best ICE. Otherwise why not use the crappy Nissan Leaf as measuring stick on EV side? The fucking things lose 2/3 of range in less than 5 years and less than 100K miles, but crap is crap.

Compare Tesla to Toyota if you want to be intellectually honest.
82   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You fail to grasp the big picture of EV enabling transportation service (driverless Uber) that racks up 100K miles a year. Even if the AD tech cost $100K, they make it up by much higher rate of utilization and lower total operating cost.
Look at my right graph, the difference is a few hundred thousands of dollars in fuel. That is the driver in the disruption.
83   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The maker is the fuel cost for 500K miles.
No human driver - no cut in the profit.
85   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 10:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Prius MPG is outstanding - if one can get 65 mpg reliably, it is the hyper-miler sphere.
When I had a 2012 Prius PI, I bested just north of 50.
So if your partner is so good driving in hybrid mode, carrying a big battery around is not going to help much!


kt1652 says
The problem is your cost/kwh.I also have PGE, which may be dead man walking - rates are not good but worse, must go up. I have EV1 plan, nite rate 9cent/kwh when I charge. If you have solar pv, it can be free. Yes, pv cost, all that. PV have a service life of at least 20 yrs. I am amortizing breakeven 6-8 yrs is fine.As is my EV electrons does not affect this at all.
You shouldn't compare PI-P with Hybrid Prius. Hybrid is already a partial EV. Compare it to an similar ICE.


I traded in the 2001 Prius last summer. Depending on the weather and how I used it, the mileage was 40-50 mpg for the duration. The whole time I owned it, every year or so I'd ask the Toyota service advisors to quote me replacement cost for the battery: for more than a decade, the answer was the same: $4000 with ONE YEAR warranty. You can buy a lot of gasoline with $4000.

When my parnter's workplace changed to a hellish commute last summer, we got the Prius Prime to "buy" her access to the HOV lane for the next couple of years. (That turned out to be a stupid financial decision since it turned out she got a carpool partner anyways). It took a few weeks to set up accounts set up for the "free" charging. So, during that time, the plug-in battery was not used at all, so the car ran like a "regular ol' hybrid". I dutifully logged/calculated the gas mileage (gallons to fill up divided by miles driven, - not the "displayed" number on the panel): it was "pegged" at 65 mpg.

I studied rooftop solar to death years ago, it didn't pencil out. The funds I had "set aside" in 2006-2008 for the rooftop solar, instead was cost-averaged into Rin-type stocks between the second half of 2009 till about 2012. I think the dividends those positions generate go a long ways towards offsetting the electric portion of the PGE bill.

We have only ever been in Tier-3 once when one of my kids was surreptitiously running a space heater in the bedroom. I ran our usage through different programs to see about the "break-even" for rooftop solar, the "savings", etc. I even got a quote from an installer, on how much to set aside to dismantle and move the solar if I moved to a new house. It just didn't pencil out. And do you really believe that you can command a higher price for selling the home because there's solar on the roof? Hahahahahaha!

Fast forward a decade when we got the plug-in Prius. Considering getting the night-charging rate was what led me to my simplistic calculation of gasoline cost vs PG&E. And that did not even include the extra $2k I'd have to pay to install the special meter. It just wouldn't pencil out. Even someone at PG&E went through the numbers with me, viewing our electricity bills, and shared my conclusion.

With the "free" charging she has been getting about 80 - 120 mpg, depending on how we use the car.

I am not against solar power. I have a really cool solar-and-wind powered app: the clothesline. Here in SJ, it even works on non-rainy days in winter. And, the clothes dryer is the worst energy hog at our place. You can buy a lot of gasoline with the kwhrs you don't use on the clothes dryer.
86   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 10:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tried to "include image button" to paste in a screen shot of my recent PGE bill: I cannot figure it out.

27 cents a kwhr. Silly me! Now it's 28.

Here is what is on the imaged I cannot figure out how to "include":

01/01/2019 - 01/18/2019
Tier 1 Usage 192.60 kWhr @ $0.21183 = $40.80
Tier 2 Usage 190.80 kWhr @ $0.28011 = $53.44
taxes = $5.11
87   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Tried to "include image button" to paste in a screen shot of my recent PGE bill: I cannot figure it out.

27 cents a kwhr. Silly me! Now it's 28.

Here is what is on the imaged I cannot figure out how to "include":

01/01/2019 - 01/18/2019
Tier 1 Usage 192.60 kWhr @ $0.21183 = $40.80
Tier 2 Usage 190.80 kWhr @ $0.28011 = $53.44
taxes = $5.11


With an EV you'd use PGE's time-of use plan and charge at night. San Jose, PGE EVA time of use plan rates:



Our household hit the Tier 4 Usage which is 43.3 cents a kwh. After we got an EV (LEAF) and switched to EVA plan, our total electric bill actually dropped year-over-year, so driving the EV was better than free.

Beside that, investing in solar was a no brainer.
88   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
Beside that, investing in a solar is a no brainer.


Glad it's working out for you. We need more folks like you for the economic stimulus. I have a neighbor who works for an installer. Thank you.

Those positions I cost-averaged into "Rin-type" dividend payers 2009-2012 with the funds I had set aside to install solar on our roof 2006-2008, paid about $3k in dividends last year. I didn't do the calculation but I am sure I did not pay anywhere near that amount for electricity for the whole year since my overall average PGE bill "averaging" the whole year INCLUDING GAS is about $170. Needless to say the share values increased a lot during that time, also.

Or, I could have spent (or borrowed for) the lump-sum to put an ill-liquid, depreciating assest on my roof, that I may not live to see break-even.

That was, and remains, a no-brainer for me.
89   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Those positions I cost-averaged into "Rin-type" dividend payers 2009-2012 with the funds I had set aside to install solar on our roof 2006-2008, paid about $3k in dividends last year. I didn't do the calculation but I am sure I did not pay anywhere near that amount for electricity for the whole year since my overall average PGE bill "averaging" the whole year INCLUDING GAS is about $170. Needless to say the share values increased a lot during that time, also.


How many kwh do you use per year, and how much did you budget for the installation?
90   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says

How many kwh do you use per year, and how much did you budget for the installation?


I researched this to death in 2006-2007. I never did agree to have installers come to my home for a "presentation" because of the high pressure sales tactics.

But I researched it to death. Even had my roof replaced in 2007 to get it ready, as there had been some damaged from that epic NY Eve 2005-2006 rainstorm.

Of course, some of the installers from back in the day, are no longer in business. Besides interacting with PG&E and installers, I knew many folks, techie coworkers and also personal friends and acquaintances, who got solar. They shared their information and experiences with me. I had a good idea of what the cost would have been, then. Between $14K to $25k. Lots of fancy-pants talk about tax credits, etc. Some of that stuff my family was not eligible for because of the income. I just could not make it pencil out. I kept the money in my FDIC insured bank deposit, not sure what to do.

Then, the Bargain of the Century came along: doom-and-gloom sky-is-falling-down stock prices. A coworker and I marveled at the several trading days in Q4 of 2008, when the SP and DOW fell by 3% IN A SINGLE DAY! We watched for these such days and took some small positions each day there was a 3% drop. About a year later, towards the end of 2009, I did some tax-loss-harvesting and started cost-averaging in with a plan for 2-3 years.
91   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 11:53am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So many holes I dont know where to poke. Let's start with EV batteries.
Mary B is CEO of GM.
Volt introduced in 2015. Bolt 2017. Volt was USA’s best selling EV.

Mary Barra Says GM Has Never Replaced A Volt Or Bolt Battery
Update 1/18/2019: General Motors has clarified recent statements made by CEO Mary Barra. The original remarks were made intending to refer to battery degradation / “wear out” due to age and regular use in normal conditions.
https://insideevs.com/mary-barra-200k-sales-gm-replaced-battery-volt-bolt/
San Francisco taxi drivers are providing solid information about the outer reaches of hybrid battery life. At a recent Ford Motor Company event, Paul Gillespie, San Francisco Taxicab Commission president, said some of his city's Ford Escape hybrid taxis had passed 300,000 miles of use with no problems. He added that they also found brake life to be three times normal due to the regenerative braking system.
"Only two of our 182 hybrid battery packs have had to be replaced during the years hybrids have been a part of the city's taxi fleets," Gillespie said. "One was replaced under warranty and the other was driver error." The taxis in the city average 90,000 miles a year.
https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/taxis-show-hybrid-battery-durability-35392

PV solar: ymmv. Taking ’09-’12 stock return as benchmark is silly. If that isn’t chery picking data big time. Feb 2009 is the market bottom of the great recession, The rest is history. If I only look at sp500 return from 2009 to 2018 (SP500 when from 750 to 2900, eyeballing ok?) Genius. Let look at house price appreciation too from 2009. Lol
Since I am not a financial genius like Rin. I used realistic numbers for my PV ROI. My cost after tax credit was just under 10K. Ex service life 25 years. PGE electricity cost B4 PV annually 1850 or 155/m. Financially it is the same if I took out a loan at X% for Y monthly payment and Payoff is BreakEven date. As seen from below, a 6% interest rate would require $64/month savings. I am getting $145/m in savings and it is covering my EV charging cost which would be around $122/month in gasoline compared to a hybrid gas only car getting 45mpg. No brainer. My PV cost is fixed, can you say that for PGE electricity rates going forward? Oh lord.


92   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
I just could not make it pencil out. I kept the money in my FDIC insured bank deposit, not sure what to do...


Makes sense. My friend got his installed about a year ago. We penciled the return at 17.1% of invested capital per year. That seems darn good for a tax free return in this current environment. With my tax rates, $3000 dividend is only $1500 after-tax.
93   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
PV solar: ymmv. Taking ’09-’12 stock return as benchmark is silly. If that isn’t chery picking data big time. Feb 2009 is the market bottom of the great recession, The rest is history. If I only look at sp500 return from 2009 to 2018 (SP500 when from 750 to 2900, eyeballing ok?) Genius. Let look at house price appreciation too from 2009. Lol


It wasn't cherry picking. It was what happened. Yes, I was probably a lucky smart ass. Not a fancy-pants smart ass though. At the time (2006 -2007) I was (wrongly, as it turned out) paranoid about hyperinflation and thought that if I generated my own electricity, it would be a small hedge against a collapsing US dollar. Moreover, I was not smart enough / savvy enough to trade FDIC insured bank deposit to "buy the big dip" of SP = 666 in March of 2009. Still paranoid then. It was only when I max'd out the tax loss harvest late in the year that I started cost averaging, in a very small way, using the gains 2010-2012 to hedge the new purchases.

Rin's stocks are not Rocket Science. They are called dividend aristocrats. Yes, some are losers. Like GE or until very recently BP. They average out with the Steady Performers.

I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!
94   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
With my tax rates, $3000 dividend is only $1500 after-tax.


What country (or state) do you live in? Ordinary dividends are taxed at 15% for every US taxpayer: Warren Buffet, Fancy-Pants Silicon Valley Hipsters, and Flyover-State Joe Sixpack.
95   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin being a "genius" - sarcasm. If you read any of Buffett's books it basically same advise for dividend stocks.
Years ago I had said buy SDY, an aristocrat dividend ETF, the same thing. (circa 2012, before Iw0g went ballistic. ;-)
Wish my wife had listened, instead of losing $ on TSLA.
Most sane FIRE (financial independent retire early) forum member use 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for retirement planning. Some really knowledgeable and sensible financial strategies there. PERS Calif St Emp Pension (largest in the USA) use somewhere from 6-7% future return and they may be too optimistic. If I use 2009-2012 market return I would be loony.
96   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!


What's funny? Yes you can care about the environment and be better off economically too - unless your solar friends are the kind of come-to-your home high pressure types where half of your installation cost goes to pay the middle men.

Investing in stocks the risk is certainly higher than the sun shining, and I would bet that you have a lot more capital in your taxable dividend yielding stocks than I have in my roof solar.
97   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
What's funny?


Nothing funny about The Environment, nor the Economic Stimulus. The person I'm acquainted who works for an installer did some prison time. Now he's installing solar on Techies' rooftops in the Bay Area. Thank you everyone.

What is funny is how folks will rationalize how smart they are, such Financial Savvy, with their Rooftop Solar. Sunk, ill-liquid capital in a depreciating asset on their rooftop.

The high pressure sales tactics... it wasn't so many years ago I was harassed by good-looking young talkers from their tables in the local hardware chain store, with their solar-installer company-logo polo shirts, asking me if I'm a homeowner (none of your business, kid) as a lead-in to the high pressure sales tactic that always led to "we'll need to schedule an appointment at your house to give you a quote". You would have thought they were selling timeshares. Besides working the aisles at the hardware store, they came door-to-door, also.

To paraphrase Governor Brown from his 1970's administration, the cheapest kilowatt is the one you don't use. Just came in from loading my Cool and Hip Solar-Wind Powered App (it also works on windless nights, but not nearly as fast) with a large load of laundry. Yes, it's cold in SJ today but it's windy: they will dry fast and that's about 3 kHr we won't be buying.

Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.

Environment, yes. Economic stimulus, yes. Investment? Silly.
98   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 1:13pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The more you write the more you step into "it".
Notice I don't mentioned green, environmental benefits...wrt solar PV economics.

If you know the first thing about PV solar basics, is you must first eliminate waste and reduce electricity consumption.
Buying solar panel to offset wasted energy is foolish.
If you dont like to read books, spend some time at :solarpaneltalk forum.
There is a retire solar engineer there JPM, moderator. He basically chews out any newbie who talks about installation of PV before chasing down waste with a kill-a-watt or by analysis. Your best return is the kw that you never used.
On unsupervised solar chats, people would come on and complain why after PV install on roof their rates actually went up. The family think they can now go hog wild burning electrons because they have solar. Or idiots who install 2X more than they need, just in case, more is better right? Wrong.
99   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
The more you write the more you step into "it".


That's hilarious.

I really wanted to install one in 2007. Even spent on a new roof to get it ready, when the repair we did after the NY Eve Storm was sufficient. I understand about The Environment. That's why, I don't have an irrigated lawn, keep a small footprint, grow some of our own food, only ever drove small cars, carpool to work (do you?) only buy organic (at my age, it's not about health, it's about trying to help the whole organic supply chain to be viable), etc. ad naseum.

What cracks me up, is how sensitive-reactive some Rooftop Solar FanBoys go ballistic when I call BS on their Financial Savvy.

Besides the retiree from Walnut Creek, a FanGirl and a FanBoy I know, also sold their homes and relocated before achieving the "break-even", leaving that Sunk/Trapped/Ill-liquid capital on the rooftop. I would not include the Walnut Creeker as a FanBoy as he shared a more balanced perspective.

Another FanBoy relocated and kept his house as a rental. Not sure who's benefiting from those "free" electrons now, him or the tenant. I should ask him.
100   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 1:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Investment can be safe, risky, sweat (open a business), time even education.
If something I purchase today or build today and it saves me money or prevent problems later, it would be an investment.

End of discussion, no data no reference...just "fanboy.... whatever...".
Show me some numbers, $s, real world calcs, lay down assumptions, parameters, projections, then talk.
101   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:55pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.


I shared some real examples with you that you might find useful, take it or leave it.

Our situation was pretty simple. We spent $1800 a year on electric. I already went around with a Kill-a-Watt to cut what I could, and I have a gas dryer so that wasn't even included, but charging the car was included. We also did not have AC at the time, but the temps were getting damn hot in SJ. Adding and using AC would have added $400~500 more I would guess but we wanted to do it, so we went ahead and installed AC, plus a $12k solar system with 25 year warranties on all the parts. I nearly installed it myself since it seemed like an interesting project but in the end just went with an installer that seemed reasonable. Now we don't feel bad to use the AC when we feel like it, and our PGE electric cost is just the minimum delivery charge, which is $120 a year. The economics looked good. We considered the risks of moving, etc. That's a very individual thing to determine.

You can always argue that you could sweat instead of getting an AC.

It's very individual and YMMV. As mentioned, my marginal tax rate on investment income is also a factor. Fed + CA + NIIT = 50.1% tax. If I calculate $2100 savings on PGE, I would need $4200 in dividend income to equal that. $4200 dividend, $12000 investment. Pretty good. Oh, but it's a depreciating asset. Suppose I needed to sell the home, and oh crap nobody wants to give $0 for my solar (even though it's worth $2100 per year...). At a minimum, I can recoup capital gains taxes on the cost basis - so $4,356.

I talked to our neighbors that got their system installed for $0 from SolarCity and they were happy they were saving a few cents on their rates. We talked about the economics and buying outright instead of getting a PPA. Buying worked out better in the long haul, but they said if they had $10,000 to spare they would spend it on a better truck rather than solar. Fair enough. To me that's spending more money on electrons and on a truck I don't need. Most people don't think of all the financial details, or just don't have the wherewithal to be in a position to plan for the long haul.
102   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 6:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
my marginal tax rate on investment income is also a factor. Fed + CA + NIIT = 50.1% tax.


As I said, bless you all for your solar. There's lots of folks in the Bay Area who need the work doing the installs.

Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.

Unless your income is over a half million. Then the state rate is 10.3%. Over 1 M per year, 13.3%. You make over 1 M per year, your combined taxes on dividends would be 32.1%. Not 50%.

Besides, you make that kind of income every year, you don't need to bother about the Investment Savvy of a solar installation on your roof.
103   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 8:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.


Thanks, you're right. Well, Ordinary Dividends are taxed like regular income - but what I think you meant is Qualified Dividends which are taxed at 15% or 20% depending on your income level.
104   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 8:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
but what I think you meant is Qualified Dividends


Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.

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