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Teslas are unreliable rubbish.

By Tenpoundbass following x   2016 Jun 11, 3:44pm 4,053 views   105 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


http://www.vox.com/2016/6/9/11880450/tesla-doomed

Few companies have enjoyed more hype over the past few years than electric carmaker Tesla. And not without reason: Tesla is the most successful automaking startup in decades and has almost singlehandedly made electric cars cool. Yet the automaker has also been struggling with the quality of its vehicles.

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41   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 7, 6:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
Chevy Volt is pretty good; if my present car seemed likely to die I would consider a Volt.


You should also consider a Bolt. I got one in December and it is absolutely the most fun and fastest car I've ever owned. Awesome torque and acceleration (just 1 second slower than the Tesla 3 base model) and the 240 mile battery range which is plenty for my daily 50 mile work commute and monthly trips up to LA and back from San Diego. I just plug it in in my garage every 2nd or 3rd night to keep it topped off. Granted I live in a perfect climate for EV's and don't need to use the heat.

Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.
42   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.


And that's a part of the point; it's the future. As of right now, the ICU called the Toyota Corolla costs ~$18K and pretty much, $10K-$14K in the 2-3 yr year used markets. That's affordable for 90+% of the general population to transport them from home to work w/o any additional infrastructure to our current society. These are low maintenance, highly effective vehicles for the everyman in society.

Think about that and compare it to the horses of the early 1900s. Horses got sick, crapped all over the place, and were a public health nuisance esp in crowded cities like NYC, Philly, Chicago, and Boston. It was inevitable that they would be replaced by something mechanical and within a few short years. That's the nature of pent up demand.

Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid. In reality, however, depending upon income, that Corolla (all incomes) or Maxima (upper middle incomes) get the job done. As for battery tech and dealing with the cold weather, well, like I said ... the future. Let future designers work that out, build a model which rivals the Corolla in terms of price/performance/reliability and then, you'll see a brand new world of EVs.
43   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 8:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid.


I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger. I'm saving over $150 a month compared to comparable sedans I was in the market for like Accords, Passats, Sonatas, Mazda 6's when you factor in gas and maintenance because I have a fairly large commute and the cost of gas in California is pretty expensive.

I think the next 3-5 years will be interesting. There are alot of new EV's coming out from Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM and battery prices keep coming down.

Everything comes down to the battery tech. Solar and other renewables will make alot more sense once we have ways of storing energy produced during the day with low cost (and safe) batteries.
44   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 8:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger


It's not the tree hugging thing; it's a Silicon Valley excitement thing much like the first iPods. SV products are the 'California Dreaming' of today's times. Musk is its greatest cheerleader.

That Bolt is in effect a Maxima, which is an upper middle class income car. So yes, EVs are making an entry into that space but again, it's not general enough for the country as a whole. The average non-indebted Maxima owner can easily afford a tank of gas and not be in the queue for recharging stations.

Also realize, California is not the country; both the northeast and the midwest have severe winters where in effect, having gasoline in the tank, like in my Corolla example, gets one some ~350 miles per fill-up regardless of the outside temperature. And Corollas are half the price of the Maxima which gives one some 4K+ gallons of gas which is some 100K+ miles. I suspect that most ppl would like to swap cars at that point in time which makes the Corolla one of the best cars for the working person. I used to know Corolla and Civic drivers, whose cars lasted till 250K miles with original engine & transmission.
45   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 9:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.
Compare a TM3 to a BMW 3 series, and higher for Model X, S.
I dont defend Teslas, I did not buy one. They are luxury cars.
Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.
True that from an economical pov, Teslas dont pencil out no matter how hard one tries.
But you get, quiet rocket-ship g's, sexy looks and unsurpassed energy efficiency.
Luxury cars buyers:
1) They are well-off. The list price delta is insignificant to them. Like <1% of their net worth, who cares.
2) They feelTesla cool is so compelling they are willing to pay extra for it. Fine with me.
3) They are going to buy luxury ICE anyway, so Tesla is competitive. Look a BMW headlight replacement cost $1000. I am not joking.
4) They have business write-off that makes it worthwhile.
5) They drive a shit ton of miles a year and electricity cost is free or extremely low for them.

I am not going to write a small book on why it is advantageous for me to drive a PHEV, using an average of 90-95% electric vs gas duty cycle.
Here is a graphical composite of why it works economically for me. Why solar PV and EVs are a match made in heaven.
46   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 9:10am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You're lucky with your parking situation: where I work one must move their EV off the charger after 2 hours. Dropping everything and running out to move the car gets pretty old pretty quick.
47   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 9:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Teslas are the only somewhat fun vehicles among all the EVs (except maybe i8). The rest are rather meh on that department.
48   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 9:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
Those that can use AI automation to cut down on repetitive procedures will do so. But we wont ever see in our lifetime or in three lifetimes where Rosie the Robot takes over everyone's Job. Even George Jetson had a job to go to. Rosie was the Maid.
Spacely Sprockets depended on good old fashioned human brains


Jobs that are mundane will be replaced, especially anything on an industrial scale where training AI to do the job will be economical. Other jobs will always be around, but will be augmented by AI to make people more productive. No different than computing or advancements in tooling that we have now, compared to what we had just a few decades ago. Any significantly advanced technology looks like magic.
49   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 9:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
Jobs that are mundane will be replaced


It really depends on how complex the solution to make that job redundant would be.
If a business owner is only making a set amount of money that he can afford the cheap labor doing the mundane task.
If a robot hardware and software cost more than the ROI would ever be during the lifetime of that solution. Then it would never be replaced.

Just try to imagine all of this automated shit going on in city, town or neighborhood. Where nobody is even working. So people will be in the way. Since they wont even own cars, they will be walking and think they own all of the roads. The Automated cars, and transportation and auto delivery robots will be a huge liability. Accident incidents will be quite common.

If nobody is working, where will B2B robots deliver to, and who or what will come receive it. Are Robots going to go to supply houses to pick up their materials. Or will the materials be delivered to job sites? Will all of these Robots crashing into each other and creating bottle necks as they wait for the previous robot to get serviced by the Robot Clerk so they can get their bill of materials and leave. Will they be like...

"Hey Man... er Robot! Hurry UP! Time is Money, you're costing me Money!"
"What do you mean did we send over the PO, don't be silly the Toaster told me this morning he sent PO in!"
"What? It wont be here until next Week? Now what am I supposed to DO? I came all the way from Vero Beach to do this job. My schedule is booked all next week."
"I need Call my Boss!"

And what in the hell will they be making More Robots? They wont be making consumer goods, that's for sure!
50   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 10:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous they can do FB, work, relax or have sex while waiting.

"Toll-Booth Attendant : Toll-booth attendants are reported to earn an average annual salary of $45,000 per year. This salary exceeds the national average, which is notable considering that this job is relatively low-skilled and requires no post-secondary education. It is also reported that the highest paid toll-booth operator salary in Maine in 2009 was $76,219, which is an impressive 85% more than the national average annual salary."
51   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 10:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What would you have him do? Practice his hold up and armed robbery skills?
52   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous


What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).
53   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 10:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous


What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).

We are talking about joe-six-pack's job being eliminated by AI.
Autonomous level =>4 will enable people to be more productive with their commuting time which for many is wasted and is physically tiring.
Autonomous driving tech is a form of AI. The key to understanding it is, there are different level of AD and for different regions. (Warm/Cold, Urban/country, Interstate/City...)
AD on decent weather days, on 3D mapped, machine learned geo-fenced routes are completely doable, even today.
For many commuters that is exactly the case. They drive the same route, get on the interstate, arrive at a big city, drive to the work place parking and reverse to go home.

Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.

It makes no sense to pay someone to do a job that can be done cheaper and with higher quality than a human with attitude.
54   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 8, 11:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.


See? The tech was available and reliable 15 years ago (I would argue it's more like 25, but whatever). And still there are guys doing the job which is supposedly "unnecessary". The tech for autonomous driving is not even in production yet, let alone dead-nuts reliable. It's anybody guess when (and if) it will be rolled out on a massive scale. Which means that many of the people you feel sorry for are most probably safe in their jobs for the rest of their working years.
55   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 12:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.
56   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I bet $ on L4 rollout within 5 years.
With regions lagging, of course.
AD EVs will enable this:
10X reduction in cost of transportation. Cars are used only 5% of times on ave. If Uber type AD service can up that to 80%, service EV run 100k mi annually, service life .5 to 1 million miles. Most people would find it makes sense to own fewer cars or no car.
New generation are not so fixated on car ownership.
ATM did a number on tellers.
CAD did ait to drawing drafters.
Soon AI farm machineries will do to agriculture.
Gov, unions don't count, they don't need to compete.
Gotta work, talk later.
57   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.

Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on. What us true is technology has always created more opportunities and new higher skill and pay jobs for those that qualify.
Will this continue to be the case in a quantum leap in machine capabilities, machines that never stop learning and improving ? Idk.
58   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Feb 8, 12:22pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.


The comparison was to the upper middle class Maxima. The Corolla was the everyman's working car, regardless of socioeconomic bracket. And as I said, Maxima owners, who're not fully indebted, can afford gas.

kt1652 says
Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.


In the northeast and the midwest, where the cold weather decimates the batteries, a cheap ICU, like the Corolla, will always offer 350 miles per fill-up, regardless of the temperature outside. And then take that savings delta, between that an any EV today, and you get 100K miles of gas paid for, which is about the time when most ppl trade in their vehicles for something new.
59   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden no way have plenty of sunlight. Parking near me since I'm dictating this while driving
60   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden norway have plenty of sunlight. Pardpn since I'm dictating this while driving
61   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 12:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on


There are industries that automated and when that machinery for the automation became obsolete or needed replaced or repaired. Many of that automation returned back to human labor. Because they realized they were swept up in the hype of automation.

The support and tech staff required to keep automation can be ten times the cost of human labor. Also there is too much expected out of simple automation.

I even see it here at my job. Where I take PO's and Sales Orders and covert them to Dye Sublimation print jobs. They are now capable of batching many orders together and printing it. But when it comes to time to close 100 orders at once, with the South African built clunky ERP system they use. It's shits out them from time to time.
It's not because of one simple reason. It's because of many reasons. They set up new Substrate, but didn't set up every field required in the ERP to allow dispatch of inventory. The Customer has gone over the credit limit, someone forgot to allocate stock from one warehouse to the default warehouse to use for the Order and Customer type.
This is all stuff that requires a human to go through at the end of the day and catch any Sales orders that didn't close out automatically.
There's nothing I can do, there's magic wand this ERP simply will not dispatch inventory when it doesn't see all of the data it needs. Some has to do QA and make sure all of the T's are crossed and I's are dotted. They think they can come back to me like my process failed. But it's bad data entry. Another process is this South African Piece of Crap ERP gets overloaded with processes. So the folks in the back at the end of the day will throw 120 orders at it to close out at the end of the day. They all end up in Suspense.

They could get a New ERP which they are in the process of doing. But even that ERP will have locks and checks and balances that will prohibit records from being inserted and ledger codes being hit when it sees a problem. That's just the nature of a Sarbanes-Oxley Compliant ERP software that is required by law to have.

Of course I wrote a process that catches all of the errors before they happen and email or inform those interested parties. The problem is, nobody wants to own that process. I told a person in a meeting this week about it. I can spend all day being the Order QA and logistics specialist or I can Program I can't do both.

Can AI create the Substrate collection, act as the buyer of wholesale goods, and the supplier for the businesses we service and create all of the patterns and color ways, print the jobs and calibrate the colors, ship the product and mark the records shipped without a human?

Probably but then nobody would be willing to pay $500 a yard for the material that it would take to cover that much AI sophistication.

You automate as much as you can, it just makes the employees you have to keep lazy and counter productive to your automation. You're better off making everyone do it by hand and give them impossible deadlines.
62   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 12:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So where are in agreement that computers and the internet made us much more efficient and productive right? Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers
63   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 1:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The OpenAI Dota 2 bots just defeated a team of former pros. And it wasn’t even close. By Vlad Savov on August 6, 2018", (Google Vice)
To be good at video games require exceptional hand-eye coordination, quick reflexes, big picture awareness, concentration. The same qualities to be a good driver. If the machine can beat professional gamers, it won't be long until it can beat average impaired drivers. They don't need to be the best, just better, which means safer.
64   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2019 Feb 8, 2:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers


You should Ebay Servers and see the stacks of Servers about half the size of sky scrappers that came from failed start ups.
65   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 2:16pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

No argument here. SV is built on bodies of failed startups. I was on a team that took over the failed op of one network co. One of the last enginger there said he worked on 5 srartu p s in 10 years, all failed, options worthless. He looked like a beaten man. 9 in 10 goes bkrpt. But when they win, the world is changed.
The real reason mergers rarely work, all the failed personnel are still running the show. They may all talk the talk, but don't know how to walk.
Deadwood is organization's cancer.
66   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 3:52pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips


I think 98% of the driving population don't drive more than 50 miles a day. So even during the polar vortex, the battery range of the newer EV's is plenty. The key is the ability to charge at home. I would never get an EV if I had to rely solely on public charging infrastructure unless my office had it.

I've got my wife's minivan for the rare longer trip and to haul my longboard to the beach.
67   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 4:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
The key is the ability to charge at home.


I dunno, socal.

The car company claims that my partner's plug-in hybrid gets 100 miles per 25 kwhr.

In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.

If 100 mi/25 kwhr is to be believed, it's $0.0675 per mile.

Running in pure hybrid-only mode (not using the plug in battery) we've been reliably getting 65 mpg, paying $2.999 per gallon. That's $0.046 per mile for gasoline. Compared to $0.0675 per mile for at home battery charging. I looked at the other billing plans. Those would make a small change in the PG&E bill, but nowhere close to equivalence.

So we don't charge it at home. Just the "free" charging stations.
68   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 8, 4:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BACAH, assuming your calc is right. The problem is your cost/kwh.I also have PGE, which may be dead man walking - rates are not good but worse, must go up. I have EV1 plan, nite rate 9cent/kwh when I charge. If you have solar pv, it can be free. Yes, pv cost, all that. PV have a service life of at least 20 yrs. I am amortizing breakeven 6-8 yrs is fine.As is my EV electrons does not affect this at all.
You shouldn't compare PI-P with Hybrid Prius. Hybrid is already a partial EV. Compare it to an similar ICE.
69   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 8, 7:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
Of course I wrote a process that catches all of the errors before they happen and email or inform those interested parties. The problem is, nobody wants to own that process. I told a person in a meeting this week about it. I can spend all day being the Order QA and logistics specialist or I can Program I can't do both.

Can AI create the Substrate collection, act as the buyer of wholesale goods, and the supplier for the businesses we service and create all of the patterns and color ways, print the jobs and calibrate the colors, ship the product and mark the records shipped without a human?

Probably but then nobody would be willing to pay $500 a yard for the material that it would take to cover that much AI sophistication.


It sounds like the problems here are "human error". Each step in the process could be automated, it's just a matter of whether it's cost effective or not. You could certainly have a business that does all of the research and engineering and sells it to 10,000 businesses. Much of your process is not rocket science and already automated by Amazon - orders, payments, sourcing, shipping. All a human has to do is scan some bar-codes and slap on some tape.

If it's something one off, very specialized to a particular small business operation, you're not going to have that fully automated until you have a general AI that can learn the ropes quickly. It's going to happen but give it 20 or 30 years.

Things like self-driving will be first, where once you build an AI driver you can duplicate it 100 million times making it extremely cost effective. The job of driving single trucks will be replaced by the job of supervising a flock of autonomous trucks.
70   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 9:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Prius MPG is outstanding - if one can get 65 mpg reliably, it is the hyper-miler sphere.
When I had a 2012 Prius PI, I bested just north of 50.
So if your partner is so good driving in hybrid mode, carrying a big battery around is not going to help much!
https://www.befrugal.com/tools/electric-car-calculator/

71   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2019 Feb 9, 9:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The problem with AI is environmental perception.
72   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 9, 10:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.


Dang, that is pretty high. In San Diego County SDG&E offers an EV plan for "Super Off-Peak" where they only charge $.09kWh midnight to 6:00AM during the week and midnight to 2:00PM on the weekends. I have to pay an additional $16/month for that plan, but I should only be paying about $50/month to cover 1,200 miles if my math is correct. I just changed over to that plan last month and haven't seen my first bill yet, so we'll see.
73   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 10:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin said compare Maxima to M3. In reality, no one who buys a TM3 will look at a Maxima.
Maxima is dated tech - old man's idea of family sedan.
Just for kicks, I used a Model S because it is more like a family vehicle.
I used my typical driving parameters, costs of fuel/e, distances...
I left out service cost, too hard to predict.
EV will have much lower maintenance cost - so being conservative.
Where things get interesting is my second graph, when the asset utilization go up by 10X, it is no contest, S wins.
This is the business model for transportation as a service, not ownership, driving up asset utilization by 10x multiples.
Uber, Lyft and others plan for future transportation cost disruption.
74   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 12:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This robot freaks me out.
DeepBlue beating chess champ was brute force computational.
AI beating pros at DOTA2 was machine learning, teaching itself by playing 17k years' equivalent.
This world belongs to the young. I dont think I saw a +50yr old in the entire video.



edit: DEEPblue hehe
75   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 9, 12:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says

In our PG&E billing area (SJ) they charge $0.27 per kwhr for Tier 2.


PGE has time of use plans for EVs. It was around 10c per kWh at night. I didn't check the latest cost since we have solar.
76   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 1:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Rin said compare Maxima to M3. In reality, no one who buys a TM3 will look at a Maxima.
Maxima is dated tech - old man's idea of family sedan.
Just for kicks, I used a Model S because it is more like a family vehicle.
I used my typical driving parameters, costs of fuel/e, distances...
I left out service cost, too hard to predict.
EV will have much lower maintenance cost - so being conservative.
Where things get interesting is my second graph, when the asset utilization go up by 10X, it is no contest, S wins.
This is the business model for transportation as a service, not ownership, driving up asset utilization by 10x multiples.
Uber, Lyft and others plan for future transportation cost disruption.



Where does one buy new ModelS for $50K? I'll take two at that price.
77   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 1:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

From BeFrugal EV cost calculator.
Think 2012 price, includes 7500 tax credit, too low for Maxima also.
Yeah, it will raise the starting point by 20K, right graph new Breakeven at 10 months...
The big picture, area under the curve does not change meaningfully for decision making...the slopes does not change.
Let's call it even, in light that a ICE engine would need rebuilding 2 times to reach .5 million miles. hehe.

78   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 1:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
a ICE engine would need rebuilding 2 times to reach .5 million miles.


Um, no: the most-recent example of modern ICE engine reaching 1M miles (Toyota Tundra) was not rebuilt even once. Still has original transmission too.
79   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Not in a Uber, Lyft, Cruise...service model. They are driven like mules, not by gentle owners.
If you're that 1 in 250000 Toyota, it is chery picking data.
I worked with a German born engineer, he drove his MB diesel to 500K miles.

Rebuilt engine, transmission, exhaust system a coupla times, seats reupholstered, even radio bracket broke.
He was one of those OCD mechanical engineer, driving a diesel engine known for longevity.
You cannot have a business renting out clunky, smoking, knocking cars everyone knows should be junked.
When ICE owners reach 1M odometer miles, they make the news.
https://autoweek.com/article/wait-theres-more/hyundai-elantra-owner-drives-1-million-miles-5-years
80   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2019 Feb 9, 2:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Not in a Uber, Lyft, Cruise...service model. They are driven like mules, not by gentle owners.


Toyota in question was driven by parts delivery dude, not some "gentle owner". I fail to see how the model of driving 125K miles per year delivering parts is different from driving same amount of miles "delivering" people.

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