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Teslas are unreliable rubbish.

By Tenpoundbass following x   2016 Jun 11, 3:44pm 5,444 views   105 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


http://www.vox.com/2016/6/9/11880450/tesla-doomed

Few companies have enjoyed more hype over the past few years than electric carmaker Tesla. And not without reason: Tesla is the most successful automaking startup in decades and has almost singlehandedly made electric cars cool. Yet the automaker has also been struggling with the quality of its vehicles.

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81   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (4)   2019 Feb 9, 2:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
I worked with a German born engineer, he drove his MB diesel to 500K miles.

Rebuilt engine, transmission, exhaust system a coupla times, seats reupholstered, even radio bracket broke.


Yeah, German-fucking-cars with their "special maintenance items" unknown to the Japanese and American brands. If you want to compare best EV to ICE - compare it to the best ICE. Otherwise why not use the crappy Nissan Leaf as measuring stick on EV side? The fucking things lose 2/3 of range in less than 5 years and less than 100K miles, but crap is crap.

Compare Tesla to Toyota if you want to be intellectually honest.
82   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You fail to grasp the big picture of EV enabling transportation service (driverless Uber) that racks up 100K miles a year. Even if the AD tech cost $100K, they make it up by much higher rate of utilization and lower total operating cost.
Look at my right graph, the difference is a few hundred thousands of dollars in fuel. That is the driver in the disruption.
83   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 9, 2:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The maker is the fuel cost for 500K miles.
No human driver - no cut in the profit.
85   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 10:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Prius MPG is outstanding - if one can get 65 mpg reliably, it is the hyper-miler sphere.
When I had a 2012 Prius PI, I bested just north of 50.
So if your partner is so good driving in hybrid mode, carrying a big battery around is not going to help much!


kt1652 says
The problem is your cost/kwh.I also have PGE, which may be dead man walking - rates are not good but worse, must go up. I have EV1 plan, nite rate 9cent/kwh when I charge. If you have solar pv, it can be free. Yes, pv cost, all that. PV have a service life of at least 20 yrs. I am amortizing breakeven 6-8 yrs is fine.As is my EV electrons does not affect this at all.
You shouldn't compare PI-P with Hybrid Prius. Hybrid is already a partial EV. Compare it to an similar ICE.


I traded in the 2001 Prius last summer. Depending on the weather and how I used it, the mileage was 40-50 mpg for the duration. The whole time I owned it, every year or so I'd ask the Toyota service advisors to quote me replacement cost for the battery: for more than a decade, the answer was the same: $4000 with ONE YEAR warranty. You can buy a lot of gasoline with $4000.

When my parnter's workplace changed to a hellish commute last summer, we got the Prius Prime to "buy" her access to the HOV lane for the next couple of years. (That turned out to be a stupid financial decision since it turned out she got a carpool partner anyways). It took a few weeks to set up accounts set up for the "free" charging. So, during that time, the plug-in battery was not used at all, so the car ran like a "regular ol' hybrid". I dutifully logged/calculated the gas mileage (gallons to fill up divided by miles driven, - not the "displayed" number on the panel): it was "pegged" at 65 mpg.

I studied rooftop solar to death years ago, it didn't pencil out. The funds I had "set aside" in 2006-2008 for the rooftop solar, instead was cost-averaged into Rin-type stocks between the second half of 2009 till about 2012. I think the dividends those positions generate go a long ways towards offsetting the electric portion of the PGE bill.

We have only ever been in Tier-3 once when one of my kids was surreptitiously running a space heater in the bedroom. I ran our usage through different programs to see about the "break-even" for rooftop solar, the "savings", etc. I even got a quote from an installer, on how much to set aside to dismantle and move the solar if I moved to a new house. It just didn't pencil out. And do you really believe that you can command a higher price for selling the home because there's solar on the roof? Hahahahahaha!

Fast forward a decade when we got the plug-in Prius. Considering getting the night-charging rate was what led me to my simplistic calculation of gasoline cost vs PG&E. And that did not even include the extra $2k I'd have to pay to install the special meter. It just wouldn't pencil out. Even someone at PG&E went through the numbers with me, viewing our electricity bills, and shared my conclusion.

With the "free" charging she has been getting about 80 - 120 mpg, depending on how we use the car.

I am not against solar power. I have a really cool solar-and-wind powered app: the clothesline. Here in SJ, it even works on non-rainy days in winter. And, the clothes dryer is the worst energy hog at our place. You can buy a lot of gasoline with the kwhrs you don't use on the clothes dryer.
86   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 10:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tried to "include image button" to paste in a screen shot of my recent PGE bill: I cannot figure it out.

27 cents a kwhr. Silly me! Now it's 28.

Here is what is on the imaged I cannot figure out how to "include":

01/01/2019 - 01/18/2019
Tier 1 Usage 192.60 kWhr @ $0.21183 = $40.80
Tier 2 Usage 190.80 kWhr @ $0.28011 = $53.44
taxes = $5.11
87   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Tried to "include image button" to paste in a screen shot of my recent PGE bill: I cannot figure it out.

27 cents a kwhr. Silly me! Now it's 28.

Here is what is on the imaged I cannot figure out how to "include":

01/01/2019 - 01/18/2019
Tier 1 Usage 192.60 kWhr @ $0.21183 = $40.80
Tier 2 Usage 190.80 kWhr @ $0.28011 = $53.44
taxes = $5.11


With an EV you'd use PGE's time-of use plan and charge at night. San Jose, PGE EVA time of use plan rates:



Our household hit the Tier 4 Usage which is 43.3 cents a kwh. After we got an EV (LEAF) and switched to EVA plan, our total electric bill actually dropped year-over-year, so driving the EV was better than free.

Beside that, investing in solar was a no brainer.
88   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
Beside that, investing in a solar is a no brainer.


Glad it's working out for you. We need more folks like you for the economic stimulus. I have a neighbor who works for an installer. Thank you.

Those positions I cost-averaged into "Rin-type" dividend payers 2009-2012 with the funds I had set aside to install solar on our roof 2006-2008, paid about $3k in dividends last year. I didn't do the calculation but I am sure I did not pay anywhere near that amount for electricity for the whole year since my overall average PGE bill "averaging" the whole year INCLUDING GAS is about $170. Needless to say the share values increased a lot during that time, also.

Or, I could have spent (or borrowed for) the lump-sum to put an ill-liquid, depreciating assest on my roof, that I may not live to see break-even.

That was, and remains, a no-brainer for me.
89   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Those positions I cost-averaged into "Rin-type" dividend payers 2009-2012 with the funds I had set aside to install solar on our roof 2006-2008, paid about $3k in dividends last year. I didn't do the calculation but I am sure I did not pay anywhere near that amount for electricity for the whole year since my overall average PGE bill "averaging" the whole year INCLUDING GAS is about $170. Needless to say the share values increased a lot during that time, also.


How many kwh do you use per year, and how much did you budget for the installation?
90   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says

How many kwh do you use per year, and how much did you budget for the installation?


I researched this to death in 2006-2007. I never did agree to have installers come to my home for a "presentation" because of the high pressure sales tactics.

But I researched it to death. Even had my roof replaced in 2007 to get it ready, as there had been some damaged from that epic NY Eve 2005-2006 rainstorm.

Of course, some of the installers from back in the day, are no longer in business. Besides interacting with PG&E and installers, I knew many folks, techie coworkers and also personal friends and acquaintances, who got solar. They shared their information and experiences with me. I had a good idea of what the cost would have been, then. Between $14K to $25k. Lots of fancy-pants talk about tax credits, etc. Some of that stuff my family was not eligible for because of the income. I just could not make it pencil out. I kept the money in my FDIC insured bank deposit, not sure what to do.

Then, the Bargain of the Century came along: doom-and-gloom sky-is-falling-down stock prices. A coworker and I marveled at the several trading days in Q4 of 2008, when the SP and DOW fell by 3% IN A SINGLE DAY! We watched for these such days and took some small positions each day there was a 3% drop. About a year later, towards the end of 2009, I did some tax-loss-harvesting and started cost-averaging in with a plan for 2-3 years.
91   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 11:53am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So many holes I dont know where to poke. Let's start with EV batteries.
Mary B is CEO of GM.
Volt introduced in 2015. Bolt 2017. Volt was USA’s best selling EV.

Mary Barra Says GM Has Never Replaced A Volt Or Bolt Battery
Update 1/18/2019: General Motors has clarified recent statements made by CEO Mary Barra. The original remarks were made intending to refer to battery degradation / “wear out” due to age and regular use in normal conditions.
https://insideevs.com/mary-barra-200k-sales-gm-replaced-battery-volt-bolt/
San Francisco taxi drivers are providing solid information about the outer reaches of hybrid battery life. At a recent Ford Motor Company event, Paul Gillespie, San Francisco Taxicab Commission president, said some of his city's Ford Escape hybrid taxis had passed 300,000 miles of use with no problems. He added that they also found brake life to be three times normal due to the regenerative braking system.
"Only two of our 182 hybrid battery packs have had to be replaced during the years hybrids have been a part of the city's taxi fleets," Gillespie said. "One was replaced under warranty and the other was driver error." The taxis in the city average 90,000 miles a year.
https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/taxis-show-hybrid-battery-durability-35392

PV solar: ymmv. Taking ’09-’12 stock return as benchmark is silly. If that isn’t chery picking data big time. Feb 2009 is the market bottom of the great recession, The rest is history. If I only look at sp500 return from 2009 to 2018 (SP500 when from 750 to 2900, eyeballing ok?) Genius. Let look at house price appreciation too from 2009. Lol
Since I am not a financial genius like Rin. I used realistic numbers for my PV ROI. My cost after tax credit was just under 10K. Ex service life 25 years. PGE electricity cost B4 PV annually 1850 or 155/m. Financially it is the same if I took out a loan at X% for Y monthly payment and Payoff is BreakEven date. As seen from below, a 6% interest rate would require $64/month savings. I am getting $145/m in savings and it is covering my EV charging cost which would be around $122/month in gasoline compared to a hybrid gas only car getting 45mpg. No brainer. My PV cost is fixed, can you say that for PGE electricity rates going forward? Oh lord.


92   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 11:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
I just could not make it pencil out. I kept the money in my FDIC insured bank deposit, not sure what to do...


Makes sense. My friend got his installed about a year ago. We penciled the return at 17.1% of invested capital per year. That seems darn good for a tax free return in this current environment. With my tax rates, $3000 dividend is only $1500 after-tax.
93   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
PV solar: ymmv. Taking ’09-’12 stock return as benchmark is silly. If that isn’t chery picking data big time. Feb 2009 is the market bottom of the great recession, The rest is history. If I only look at sp500 return from 2009 to 2018 (SP500 when from 750 to 2900, eyeballing ok?) Genius. Let look at house price appreciation too from 2009. Lol


It wasn't cherry picking. It was what happened. Yes, I was probably a lucky smart ass. Not a fancy-pants smart ass though. At the time (2006 -2007) I was (wrongly, as it turned out) paranoid about hyperinflation and thought that if I generated my own electricity, it would be a small hedge against a collapsing US dollar. Moreover, I was not smart enough / savvy enough to trade FDIC insured bank deposit to "buy the big dip" of SP = 666 in March of 2009. Still paranoid then. It was only when I max'd out the tax loss harvest late in the year that I started cost averaging, in a very small way, using the gains 2010-2012 to hedge the new purchases.

Rin's stocks are not Rocket Science. They are called dividend aristocrats. Yes, some are losers. Like GE or until very recently BP. They average out with the Steady Performers.

I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!
94   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
With my tax rates, $3000 dividend is only $1500 after-tax.


What country (or state) do you live in? Ordinary dividends are taxed at 15% for every US taxpayer: Warren Buffet, Fancy-Pants Silicon Valley Hipsters, and Flyover-State Joe Sixpack.
95   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin being a "genius" - sarcasm. If you read any of Buffett's books it basically same advise for dividend stocks.
Years ago I had said buy SDY, an aristocrat dividend ETF, the same thing. (circa 2012, before Iw0g went ballistic. ;-)
Wish my wife had listened, instead of losing $ on TSLA.
Most sane FIRE (financial independent retire early) forum member use 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for retirement planning. Some really knowledgeable and sensible financial strategies there. PERS Calif St Emp Pension (largest in the USA) use somewhere from 6-7% future return and they may be too optimistic. If I use 2009-2012 market return I would be loony.
96   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 12:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!


What's funny? Yes you can care about the environment and be better off economically too - unless your solar friends are the kind of come-to-your home high pressure types where half of your installation cost goes to pay the middle men.

Investing in stocks the risk is certainly higher than the sun shining, and I would bet that you have a lot more capital in your taxable dividend yielding stocks than I have in my roof solar.
97   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
What's funny?


Nothing funny about The Environment, nor the Economic Stimulus. The person I'm acquainted who works for an installer did some prison time. Now he's installing solar on Techies' rooftops in the Bay Area. Thank you everyone.

What is funny is how folks will rationalize how smart they are, such Financial Savvy, with their Rooftop Solar. Sunk, ill-liquid capital in a depreciating asset on their rooftop.

The high pressure sales tactics... it wasn't so many years ago I was harassed by good-looking young talkers from their tables in the local hardware chain store, with their solar-installer company-logo polo shirts, asking me if I'm a homeowner (none of your business, kid) as a lead-in to the high pressure sales tactic that always led to "we'll need to schedule an appointment at your house to give you a quote". You would have thought they were selling timeshares. Besides working the aisles at the hardware store, they came door-to-door, also.

To paraphrase Governor Brown from his 1970's administration, the cheapest kilowatt is the one you don't use. Just came in from loading my Cool and Hip Solar-Wind Powered App (it also works on windless nights, but not nearly as fast) with a large load of laundry. Yes, it's cold in SJ today but it's windy: they will dry fast and that's about 3 kHr we won't be buying.

Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.

Environment, yes. Economic stimulus, yes. Investment? Silly.
98   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 1:13pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The more you write the more you step into "it".
Notice I don't mentioned green, environmental benefits...wrt solar PV economics.

If you know the first thing about PV solar basics, is you must first eliminate waste and reduce electricity consumption.
Buying solar panel to offset wasted energy is foolish.
If you dont like to read books, spend some time at :solarpaneltalk forum.
There is a retire solar engineer there JPM, moderator. He basically chews out any newbie who talks about installation of PV before chasing down waste with a kill-a-watt or by analysis. Your best return is the kw that you never used.
On unsupervised solar chats, people would come on and complain why after PV install on roof their rates actually went up. The family think they can now go hog wild burning electrons because they have solar. Or idiots who install 2X more than they need, just in case, more is better right? Wrong.
99   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
The more you write the more you step into "it".


That's hilarious.

I really wanted to install one in 2007. Even spent on a new roof to get it ready, when the repair we did after the NY Eve Storm was sufficient. I understand about The Environment. That's why, I don't have an irrigated lawn, keep a small footprint, grow some of our own food, only ever drove small cars, carpool to work (do you?) only buy organic (at my age, it's not about health, it's about trying to help the whole organic supply chain to be viable), etc. ad naseum.

What cracks me up, is how sensitive-reactive some Rooftop Solar FanBoys go ballistic when I call BS on their Financial Savvy.

Besides the retiree from Walnut Creek, a FanGirl and a FanBoy I know, also sold their homes and relocated before achieving the "break-even", leaving that Sunk/Trapped/Ill-liquid capital on the rooftop. I would not include the Walnut Creeker as a FanBoy as he shared a more balanced perspective.

Another FanBoy relocated and kept his house as a rental. Not sure who's benefiting from those "free" electrons now, him or the tenant. I should ask him.
100   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Feb 10, 1:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Investment can be safe, risky, sweat (open a business), time even education.
If something I purchase today or build today and it saves me money or prevent problems later, it would be an investment.

End of discussion, no data no reference...just "fanboy.... whatever...".
Show me some numbers, $s, real world calcs, lay down assumptions, parameters, projections, then talk.
101   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 1:55pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.


I shared some real examples with you that you might find useful, take it or leave it.

Our situation was pretty simple. We spent $1800 a year on electric. I already went around with a Kill-a-Watt to cut what I could, and I have a gas dryer so that wasn't even included, but charging the car was included. We also did not have AC at the time, but the temps were getting damn hot in SJ. Adding and using AC would have added $400~500 more I would guess but we wanted to do it, so we went ahead and installed AC, plus a $12k solar system with 25 year warranties on all the parts. I nearly installed it myself since it seemed like an interesting project but in the end just went with an installer that seemed reasonable. Now we don't feel bad to use the AC when we feel like it, and our PGE electric cost is just the minimum delivery charge, which is $120 a year. The economics looked good. We considered the risks of moving, etc. That's a very individual thing to determine.

You can always argue that you could sweat instead of getting an AC.

It's very individual and YMMV. As mentioned, my marginal tax rate on investment income is also a factor. Fed + CA + NIIT = 50.1% tax. If I calculate $2100 savings on PGE, I would need $4200 in dividend income to equal that. $4200 dividend, $12000 investment. Pretty good. Oh, but it's a depreciating asset. Suppose I needed to sell the home, and oh crap nobody wants to give $0 for my solar (even though it's worth $2100 per year...). At a minimum, I can recoup capital gains taxes on the cost basis - so $4,356.

I talked to our neighbors that got their system installed for $0 from SolarCity and they were happy they were saving a few cents on their rates. We talked about the economics and buying outright instead of getting a PPA. Buying worked out better in the long haul, but they said if they had $10,000 to spare they would spend it on a better truck rather than solar. Fair enough. To me that's spending more money on electrons and on a truck I don't need. Most people don't think of all the financial details, or just don't have the wherewithal to be in a position to plan for the long haul.
102   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 6:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
my marginal tax rate on investment income is also a factor. Fed + CA + NIIT = 50.1% tax.


As I said, bless you all for your solar. There's lots of folks in the Bay Area who need the work doing the installs.

Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.

Unless your income is over a half million. Then the state rate is 10.3%. Over 1 M per year, 13.3%. You make over 1 M per year, your combined taxes on dividends would be 32.1%. Not 50%.

Besides, you make that kind of income every year, you don't need to bother about the Investment Savvy of a solar installation on your roof.
103   ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 8:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.


Thanks, you're right. Well, Ordinary Dividends are taxed like regular income - but what I think you meant is Qualified Dividends which are taxed at 15% or 20% depending on your income level.
104   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 10, 8:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ThreeBays says
but what I think you meant is Qualified Dividends


Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.
105   Rin   ignore (4)   2019 Feb 11, 5:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says

Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.


The thing is that ordinary dividends are also given to swing traders, who may hold onto a stock for let's say a month and a half (the minimum is some 2 days), with the idea of getting some short term cap gains and a dividend check during quarter's end.

Qualified dividends are given to long term stock holders, who're then not doubly taxed, since the corporation already paid off Uncle Sam earlier.

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