ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich
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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By anonymous following x   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am 37,100 views   353 comments   watch   quote     share    



#investing

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314   just any guy   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 5:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Someone lost their NAC for investing
315   anon_21be3   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 6:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

errc says
How fucking partisan and petty does one have to be to celebrate someone else’s stock going down in price. Speaks volumes about you


Is telling the truth considered uncivil?
316   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 6:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

SubOink says
@IWOG, what's going on with the dividend on the NAC? I see 0.74% all of a sudden. Haven't looked for a while.


Dividend still looks good according to Yahoo Finance just now:

317   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 8:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
Dividend still looks good according to Yahoo Finance just now:


was talking about the NAC not ARLP
318   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 8:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

just any guy says
Someone lost their NAC for investing


after holding over a year and collecting every month and still up 3% over purchase price...hardly a loss
319   BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 22, 9:14pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

a bad call is a bad call. this stock should have been sold 12 months ago.
320   mell   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 23, 10:12am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

errc says
mell says
Fucking White Male says
SubOink says
@IWOG, what's going on with the dividend on the NAC? I see 0.74% all of a sudden. Haven't looked for a while.


Ah if only he had been content to stick with moderating investing.


Maybe a clairvoyant disappearance though since both ARLP and NAC are not doing that well share price wise ;)


Why would you celebrate that?

I mean, I know it’s because you guys are jealous, but I’d be happy to hear your bullshit excuse.

How fucking partisan and petty does one have to be to celebrate someone else’s stock going down in price. Speaks volumes about you


C'mon now Iwog is the one obsessively willing to go years deep in patnet history just to rub a bad call into someone's face. This was a mild spontaneous tongue in cheek comment on his suboptimal call, but really just a fun answer to fwm's comment. As a libertarian I am the least jealous of anyone's wealth, good for them, incl. Iwog. However if you dish out like him you naturally attract a couple of return volleys.
321   errc   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 24, 6:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Well he recommended it ~11$

I think i bought in ~12.50

A year + of 10% dividend

So up 50% + a 10% dividend is a loser in your book, then it seems that you don’t know what you’re talking about. Maybe you don’t have any money to invest in this 8+ year raging bull market which would explain why you’re so ornery.



Suboptimal? Why you mad, bro?
322   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 24, 7:48am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

errc says
I think i bought in ~12.50


Post a picture of your brokerage statement or it didn't happen.
323   mell   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 24, 8:09am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

errc says
Well he recommended it ~11$

I think i bought in ~12.50

A year + of 10% dividend

So up 50% + a 10% dividend is a loser in your book, then it seems that you don’t know what you’re talking about. Maybe you don’t have any money to invest in this 8+ year raging bull market which would explain why you’re so ornery.



Suboptimal? Why you mad, bro?


It's near the 52wk low so it's not a good play for more than a year already. If you bought on early at the great lows then congrats. Divy is always good. Not saying it's trash but it's certainly not good enough for Iwog to boast about now. I made and make plenty of mistakes and have readily posted some here, something the duck never did. Maybe he's that brilliant but again the point was that this talk invites return volleys. No ill will intended here, really.
324   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 12:17pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

You guys are talking like its over but...just to clarify...

Earlier I was asking about the NAC not ARLP. Simply because I was getting different dividend readings on different platforms.

ARLP has a nice hefty dividend and at this point there are plenty of actual losers in the market. Market at record highs but what about DIS, Costco, KR...there is a long list of big losers. Seems like only a handful of stocks are actually moving the market up. If you own those then awesome, if you don't...then not so awesome.

We'll see how it plays out over the next 1-2 years...a bit early to call anyone wrong here - having said that, curious what iwogs thinking these days with the market where it is ...etc
325   just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 1:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I bought 1K ARLP @$20 about 10 days before the dividend so I'm under water a bit. Not concerned in the slightest as my plan was to average down if necessary until the sum is green - and take that dividend on top.

It's part of my play money account. Been underwater plenty of times in my history and held on to make great gains in the long run without any dividend. Had been interested in a nice divy vehicle for some time so appreciate the advice. I should have acted on it earlier is all...

I've a sneak suspicion if electric cars really take off we'll need more coal in the short run. I don't think it matters whether or not this is that kind of coal.
326   BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 4:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Apple, Amazon, Google. these companies will always make money.
327   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 6:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
Apple, Amazon, Google. these companies will always make money.


But that does not mean the stock goes up...unfortunately...
328   BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 7:42pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

SubOink says
BorderPatrol says
Apple, Amazon, Google. these companies will always make money.


But that does not mean the stock goes up...unfortunately...


true, except all three i mentioned have out-performed NAC and ARLP by far in the past 5 year, 10 year, 20 year...pick a time frame.

i hope people didn't buy these stocks based on the 5 day charts iwog posted. someone above suggested holding ARLP long term...only if they looked at its long term chart. ARLP is where it was 10 years ago. even with 10% dividend, it is just as good at the average stock for the past 100 years. might as well invest in an index and save the commotions. on the other hand, if you bought Apple, Amazon or Google 10 years go...
329   just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 11:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
on the other hand, if you bought Apple, Amazon or Google 10 years go...


How do you know I didn't?
330   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 24, 11:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
Apple, Amazon or Google 10 years go...


one doesn't exclude the other...of course those are also stocks to own...
331   BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 25, 12:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

just_passing_through says
BorderPatrol says
on the other hand, if you bought Apple, Amazon or Google 10 years go...


How do you know I didn't?


you missed the point
332   E-man   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 12:07pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

So ARLP broke the short-term uptrend line. Looks like it may test its recent low of $17.85. With that kind of yield and improving financial in the last couple of quarters, this is a good entry point or to add to your position.

Good luck.
333   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 12:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
SubOink says
BorderPatrol says
Apple, Amazon, Google. these companies will always make money.


But that does not mean the stock goes up...unfortunately...


true, except all three i mentioned have out-performed NAC and ARLP by far in the past 5 year, 10 year, 20 year...pick a time frame.

i hope people didn't buy these stocks based on the 5 day charts iwog posted. someone above suggested holding ARLP long term...only if they looked at its long term chart. ARLP is where it was 10 years ago. even with 10% dividend, it is just as good at the average stock for the past 100 years. might as well invest in an index and save the commotions. on the other hand, if you bought Apple, Amazon or Google 10 years go...


Yup, dumping lots of money into ALRP would have been a loss considering how the blue chips have done.
334   FP   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 27, 2:32pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Why is this obsession with ARLP? Just because the oracle of patent recommended it? There are plenty of other good investment options in this market.
335   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 27, 3:49pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

FP says
Why is this obsession with ARLP? Just because the oracle of patent recommended it?


His followers are called Lemmings.
336   errc   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 27, 4:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FP says
Why is this obsession with ARLP? Just because the oracle of patent recommended it? There are plenty of other good investment options in this market.


Certain posters have Iwog on the brain
337   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 8:30pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FP says
There are plenty of other good investment options in this market.


Please give some of your favorites!
338   just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 8:33pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
Please give some of your favorites!


You speaka my language!

Initially I came to patnet to get some tips on making money. Real Estate or otherwise.

I stuck around to watch the fights.
339   anon_1cb56   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 8:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
His followers are called Lemmings.


silly - whenever somebody recommends something you look into it. If you agree, you go for it, if you don't - you don't.

But Iwog usually has the inside scoop on this as he has been in it on and off for a long time. So he is a good resource when it comes to inquiring what's up with it. Good or Bad.

This ain't high school anymore guys. Grow up. :)

What's the obsession? a 10% dividend and plenty of upside is what the obsession is - with earnings a few quarters ago that beat by 50%. THAT's the obsession. Or that was the obsession at least then.
340   goat   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 9:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Anyone know why ARLP's EPS estimates for 2018 are so low? They're like 25-30% lower than this year.
341   Done   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 27, 10:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

If it matters its likely to test lower with reasonable high odds. 15.5 13.25. It is a hold at best I guess due to Dividend Per Share (TTM) $1.88...
342   FP   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 28, 7:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says

Please give some of your favorites!


As a rule I don't give stock tips, but OK, I'll make an exception here. Here are just a couple for the current market conditions:

1x3 SPY call back spreads, with two months out strikes

TSLX for those who like dividends
343   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 28, 7:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Thanks @FP

I don't see a dividend from TSLX though:



No hablo options. What's a call back spread?
344   FP   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 28, 7:36am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
I don't see a dividend from TSLX though


TSLX has ~ 8.45% regular + special dividend yield, which is covered by NII, and is also undervalued imho

Patrick says
What's a call back spread?


You sell 1 lower price call option and buy 3 higher price ones at the same expiration, usually for a credit or a small debit. Usually you sell or roll over about 1 month before expiration. For example, 259 and 264 January SPY strikes. This works well when the implied volatility is low. At present this is a double play on expected increase in implied volatility and SPY continuing its trend. Biggest risk is SPY gets stuck within ~1% of present level for a month. I have hedged this with a play on the VIX term structure, but even without this the risk/reward is quite good.
345   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 28, 10:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FP says
This works well when the implied volatility is low.


Thanks, but I don't understand it. Basically you're betting that the market will rise and your 3 higher priced calls will be worth more when you sell them. I guess the one lower priced option that you sold is to fund the 3 you bought? But then you're on the hook if the market falls and the owner of that call decides to exercise it.
346   FP   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 29, 8:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
Basically you're betting that the market will rise and your 3 higher priced calls will be worth more when you sell them.


yes, and as an added benefit, you gain from increase in volatility, which happens if there is a correction, but also can happen when the market goes up because the current implied volatility is very low

Patrick says
I guess the one lower priced option that you sold is to fund the 3 you bought?


yes, and this way it greatly reduces theta, i.e. the time value of your options

Patrick says
But then you're on the hook if the market falls and the owner of that call decides to exercise it.


Your loss if the market falls is small or even none if the spread is for credit, but of course there's always risk. Exercise is not really an issue, but if you are concerned, there are European index options.

Get an options modeling software and play with it.
347   FP   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 30, 9:58am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

@Patrick, did you see what happened today - SPY and VIX both up. The spreads that I mentioned above, I bought (actually it was 258/263) for $0.39 on Monday, just closed part of my position for $6.86.
348   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 30, 7:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Excellent return. Still, options scare me because I don't really understand what drives them. Never had the time to get into it.
349   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 30, 8:29pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (4)     quote      

Just wondering, is it still considered a "buy"?

351   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 1, 10:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

my feeling is with the stockmarket cranking as it is, the reason for ARLP being where it is, is because money can be made elsewhere right now. And coal is totally out of favor too.
352   Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 2, 11:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

SubOink says
a HOLD from these guys...

https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ARLP?q=arlp


Actually, HOLD is the best possible news in terms of analyst recommendations. I worked at Schwab and saw a study there which pointed out that the worst you can do in terms of stock performance is to buy stocks rated STRONG BUY. Yes, the worst you can do. STRONG BUY is an excellent negative indicator, lol.

The next worst you can do is to buy stocks rated STRONG SELL. So that's more honest.

On average, the best you can do is to buy stocks rated HOLD, or not rated at all by analysts. Those are the stocks which perform best.
353   SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 6, 7:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Interesting Patrick!

Although Apple has been a strong buy since 120...

ARLP hurting today...

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