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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By iwog following x   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am 30,862 views   292 comments   watch   quote     share  


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253 TwoScoopsMcGee   2017 Aug 10, 12:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Another Iwog hit. Thanks, Iwog.

254 Gade   2017 Aug 23, 10:43pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Coal is out of favor. ARLP has been trending down. Buy more, sell or hold?

255 SubOink   2017 Aug 24, 8:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

17.80 ...

256 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 10:42am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

It looks like a buying oportunity. And I was going to buy a lot just now. But there is this quote of $20.something on buying side of this stock.

Obviously I'm amateur in buying single stocks. I do index funds.

But that seams like a huge difference and f....g rip off by brokers charging $20.3 on buy side when the stock value is 17.9 or so.

Can you guys explain this? Thank you. Like I said I'm kind of newbe buying single stocks. Complete dummie.

257 SubOink   2017 Aug 24, 11:26am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

not sure what you mean - I log into my etrade account and can buy at 18.00 at this very second...(bid ask is 17.95-18.00)

258 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 11:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Wow, thank you for that Subolink. I'm doing something wrong.

I'm using my Vanguard brockerage account and the quote is 20.2.

What am I doing wrong guys?

259 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 11:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

It gives 2 prices - bid and ask $17 and some change when you sell and $20 and change when you buy. That's how am I understanding it.

260 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm sorry guys. I figured it out and bought 2000 shares just now.

261 Patrick   2017 Aug 24, 2:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Ironworker says


rip off by brokers charging $20.3 on buy side when the stock value is 17.9 or so.

Can you guys explain this? Thank you. Like I said I'm kind of newbe buying single stocks. Complete dummie.


First thing is that there are "market makers" who always get the cut between bid and ask prices. You can't avoid that. They are part of the exchanges.

But it's actually illegal for your own broker to buy stock lower and then sell it to you at a higher price. That's called "front running".

When you buy, one way is to do a "market order" which means "buy at whatever the price is now". That will get executed immediately, but won't get you the best price.

The better way, IMHO, is to do a "limit order" which means "buy at this price or lower, or don't buy". That may be slower to execute, but you will get the price you asked or the trade won't happen.
262 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 2:43pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Thank you for the explanation Patrick! I'm a proud owner now too.

263 just_passing_through   2017 Aug 24, 8:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

First thing is that there are "market makers" who always get the cut between bid and ask prices. You can't avoid that. They are part of the exchanges.

But it's actually illegal for your own broker to buy stock lower and then sell it to you at a higher price. That's called "front running".

When you buy, one way is to do a "market order" which means "buy at whatever the price is now". That will get executed immediately, but won't get you the best price.

The better way, IMHO, is to do a "limit order" which means "buy at this price or lower, or don't buy". That may be slower to execute, but you will get the price you asked or the trade won't happen.

I remember the day someone explained this to me. It's paid off sooo well over the years.. I've always wanted to explain this to my nephew who is now 19 but I know he's not interested and I only see him on holidays.

Over 2 decades and I still send that guy Christmas cards.

264 Patrick   2017 Aug 24, 9:03pm   ↑ like (4)   ↑ dislike (4)     quote        

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

265 BayArea   2017 Aug 24, 9:17pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do it! Like the Housing Trap, id buy it

266 mell   2017 Aug 24, 9:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do that, would probably very useful for many. I just left Schwab recently after day and long-term trading with them for close to 5+ years and a brief but intense spat with theor horrible CS which led to to the divorce ;) They have really gone downhill though StreetSmart Edge is still a decent tool.

267 BayArea   2017 Aug 25, 5:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick, if you go that route, please put some focus in how to value a company.

I.e. Why on paper a company like FND is better than SNAP

268 Patrick   2017 Aug 25, 7:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Yes, my own philosophy is that just as a house has a value which you can calculate from rent, a stock has a value you can calculate from the company's earnings.

269 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 25, 7:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Ironworker says

I'm sorry guys. I figured it out and bought 2000 shares just now.

NICE!

This is a textbook "value trap" but ya it's fun playing the ponies sometime . . .

My BAC-PL is earning 6% (until the common hits $65) but I added some more ARLP @ 18.20 which is currently 11% yield.

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water, but if they recover their bizness we should at least get our money back via the dividends before the whole thing goes titsup.

270 Patrick   2017 Aug 25, 9:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

The one thing that really worries me is their decreasing revenue. But that could turn around if coal becomes more acceptable.

271 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 27, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHHNGSP

is its main competitor. Makes me want to get an CNG-fueled RV!

Well, ICE for the front axle and back axle(s) on electric.

Mitsubishi is actually doing something like this with their Outlander PHEV.

272 SubOink   2017 Aug 28, 10:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water,

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

273 iwog   2017 Aug 31, 11:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

Yup and they just increased it last quarter. I wouldn't expect them to cut for at least a year and they might increase the dividend further.

274 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 31, 8:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
I don't know the particulars, just looking at the dividend history -- the enterprise sorta ran out of gas in 2016, trimming the 68c divvie down to 44c.

Oddly, the price had moved from $50 peak a couple years previously down to $10 right when that happened (I believe that's when iwog backed up the truck)



Going back in time I see this entity steadily went from a 6c divvie back in 1999 to the 68c peak of 2015.

if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.
275 goat   2017 Sep 1, 6:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Bellingham Bill says
if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.


2-3x seems very optimistic imo. I know in the past a 50c div supported a price like that, but I feel at that time there was a much stronger expectation of future growth that allowed such a high share price, and we don't have that same likeliness of future growth anymore. I'm basing this on the forecasts for coal prices and demand in Illinois Basin & Appalachia, where ARLP's coal is mined (2/3 & 1/3, respectively). The few I've seen forecast more or less flat demand, or maybe slight decline in Appalachia.
276 Bellingham Bill   2017 Sep 2, 9:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
At 10% yields if the company can retain its cashflow it can just buy back stock, further strengthening the coverage.

this is the happy place Apple is at, event at 2% dividend yield, since it has SO much cash to get rid of each quarter.

but yeah, like Apple this is a "burning match" no doubt.

277 anonymous   2017 Sep 9, 4:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
is Irma gonna affect ARLP?
278 SubOink   2017 Sep 18, 11:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
What's up ARLP?
279 just_passing_through   2017 Sep 18, 10:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
I'm wondering if this will impact them:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climate-change-ruling-kill-u-153000631.html
"Will This Climate Change Ruling Kill U.S. Coal?"
280 Bellingham Bill   2017 Sep 19, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
just_passing_through says
I'm wondering if this will impact them:

only in a good way it looks like, reducing new competition
281 Bellingham Bill   2017 Sep 19, 7:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
SubOink says
What's up ARLP?




This is a tough stock to buy-and-hold, and tough not to keep buying as I rebalance my positions over time.

This has a liquidation BV of $10 AFAICT, so maybe that trend will continue. If the CEO can establish some position traction on earnings, then we should see another turnaround.

Market doesn't really know, and more people want out than in still . . .
283 errc   2017 Oct 11, 12:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Up 5% :o

Is this the pre dividend bump or did I miss an upgrade or some news
284 iwog   2017 Oct 11, 1:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
errc says
Is this the pre dividend bump or did I miss an upgrade or some news


Chart is screaming buy now. I'm not a big technical analysis guy but the company is very much undervalued by all measurements and recent action has looked like weak hands folding plus profit taking. I don't know about the handle part, but this bowl shaped pattern is an awesome buy signal and I've used it several times before.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation
285 me123   2017 Oct 11, 2:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        
It's nice that you're not a narcissist and don't start threads flapping your wings and tell everyone how wonderful you are.

Only OTHER posters do that here, right??
286 errc   2017 Oct 11, 3:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
me123 says
It's nice that you're not a narcissist and don't start threads flapping your wings and tell everyone how wonderful you are.

Only OTHER posters do that here, right??


I know, right? There’s no difference between posting a play before it happens and simply gloating about a win once the game is over. Losers!!
287 iwog   2017 Oct 11, 4:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Gawd I'm glad I have Piggy on ignore.
288 Bellingham Bill   2017 Oct 11, 6:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
heh, ignore works again, cool. I gave everyone an amnesty, but I'll re-block whenever I see something that is so stupid it damages my IQ too.



^ I violated a rule with ARLP, add to a losing position.

But the intangibles with this stock are hard to figure. CEO's wife is Ambassador to Canada, indicating deep connections with our corrupt Administration.

We've got the Energy Secretary proposing coal subsidies, and head of the EPA trying to shitcan Obama's carbon pollution controls.

And a company by all apparent measures is solid financially.



keep those divvies rollin' Joe
289 goat   2017 Oct 11, 7:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Illinois Basin coal prices have ticked up a bit, which seems to often happen at the start of October, historically. Let's hope it keeps goin up - the current prices are pretty low.

https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL-US-Coal-Prices-by-Region?ref=patrick.net&utm_medium=graph&utm_source=quandl
290 just_passing_through   2017 Oct 11, 8:19pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Been kicking myself for not buying on that last dip for about a month now. Wished I'd bought instead of just staring at it every day. That cup and handle does look interesting...
291 SubOink   2017 Oct 12, 12:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
you can still buy it now - remember you are missing out on 9.8% ...
292 SubOink   2017 Oct 16, 2:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
anyone know what the ex-div date is for Oct?

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