ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich
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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By iwog following x   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am 32,995 views   304 comments   watch   quote     share  



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265 BayArea   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 24, 9:17pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do it! Like the Housing Trap, id buy it

266 mell   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 24, 9:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do that, would probably very useful for many. I just left Schwab recently after day and long-term trading with them for close to 5+ years and a brief but intense spat with theor horrible CS which led to to the divorce ;) They have really gone downhill though StreetSmart Edge is still a decent tool.

267 BayArea   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 25, 5:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick, if you go that route, please put some focus in how to value a company.

I.e. Why on paper a company like FND is better than SNAP

268 Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 25, 7:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Yes, my own philosophy is that just as a house has a value which you can calculate from rent, a stock has a value you can calculate from the company's earnings.

269 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 25, 7:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Ironworker says

I'm sorry guys. I figured it out and bought 2000 shares just now.

NICE!

This is a textbook "value trap" but ya it's fun playing the ponies sometime . . .

My BAC-PL is earning 6% (until the common hits $65) but I added some more ARLP @ 18.20 which is currently 11% yield.

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water, but if they recover their bizness we should at least get our money back via the dividends before the whole thing goes titsup.

270 Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 25, 9:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The one thing that really worries me is their decreasing revenue. But that could turn around if coal becomes more acceptable.

271 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 27, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHHNGSP

is its main competitor. Makes me want to get an CNG-fueled RV!

Well, ICE for the front axle and back axle(s) on electric.

Mitsubishi is actually doing something like this with their Outlander PHEV.

272 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 28, 10:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water,

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

273 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 31, 11:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

Yup and they just increased it last quarter. I wouldn't expect them to cut for at least a year and they might increase the dividend further.

274 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 31, 8:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I don't know the particulars, just looking at the dividend history -- the enterprise sorta ran out of gas in 2016, trimming the 68c divvie down to 44c.

Oddly, the price had moved from $50 peak a couple years previously down to $10 right when that happened (I believe that's when iwog backed up the truck)



Going back in time I see this entity steadily went from a 6c divvie back in 1999 to the 68c peak of 2015.

if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.
275 goat   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 1, 6:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says
if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.


2-3x seems very optimistic imo. I know in the past a 50c div supported a price like that, but I feel at that time there was a much stronger expectation of future growth that allowed such a high share price, and we don't have that same likeliness of future growth anymore. I'm basing this on the forecasts for coal prices and demand in Illinois Basin & Appalachia, where ARLP's coal is mined (2/3 & 1/3, respectively). The few I've seen forecast more or less flat demand, or maybe slight decline in Appalachia.
276 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Sep 2, 9:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

At 10% yields if the company can retain its cashflow it can just buy back stock, further strengthening the coverage.

this is the happy place Apple is at, event at 2% dividend yield, since it has SO much cash to get rid of each quarter.

but yeah, like Apple this is a "burning match" no doubt.

277 anonymous   ignore (5)   2017 Sep 9, 4:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

is Irma gonna affect ARLP?
278 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 18, 11:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

What's up ARLP?
279 just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 18, 10:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm wondering if this will impact them:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climate-change-ruling-kill-u-153000631.html
"Will This Climate Change Ruling Kill U.S. Coal?"
280 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Sep 19, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

just_passing_through says
I'm wondering if this will impact them:

only in a good way it looks like, reducing new competition
281 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Sep 19, 7:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says
What's up ARLP?




This is a tough stock to buy-and-hold, and tough not to keep buying as I rebalance my positions over time.

This has a liquidation BV of $10 AFAICT, so maybe that trend will continue. If the CEO can establish some position traction on earnings, then we should see another turnaround.

Market doesn't really know, and more people want out than in still . . .
283 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Oct 11, 12:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Up 5% :o

Is this the pre dividend bump or did I miss an upgrade or some news
284 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Oct 11, 1:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

errc says
Is this the pre dividend bump or did I miss an upgrade or some news


Chart is screaming buy now. I'm not a big technical analysis guy but the company is very much undervalued by all measurements and recent action has looked like weak hands folding plus profit taking. I don't know about the handle part, but this bowl shaped pattern is an awesome buy signal and I've used it several times before.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation
285 Sniper   ignore (7)   2017 Oct 11, 2:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

It's nice that you're not a narcissist and don't start threads flapping your wings and tell everyone how wonderful you are.

Only OTHER posters do that here, right??
286 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Oct 11, 3:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

me123 says
It's nice that you're not a narcissist and don't start threads flapping your wings and tell everyone how wonderful you are.

Only OTHER posters do that here, right??


I know, right? There’s no difference between posting a play before it happens and simply gloating about a win once the game is over. Losers!!
287 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Oct 11, 4:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Gawd I'm glad I have Piggy on ignore.
288 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Oct 11, 6:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

heh, ignore works again, cool. I gave everyone an amnesty, but I'll re-block whenever I see something that is so stupid it damages my IQ too.



^ I violated a rule with ARLP, add to a losing position.

But the intangibles with this stock are hard to figure. CEO's wife is Ambassador to Canada, indicating deep connections with our corrupt Administration.

We've got the Energy Secretary proposing coal subsidies, and head of the EPA trying to shitcan Obama's carbon pollution controls.

And a company by all apparent measures is solid financially.



keep those divvies rollin' Joe
289 goat   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 11, 7:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Illinois Basin coal prices have ticked up a bit, which seems to often happen at the start of October, historically. Let's hope it keeps goin up - the current prices are pretty low.

https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL-US-Coal-Prices-by-Region?ref=patrick.net&utm_medium=graph&utm_source=quandl
290 just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 11, 8:19pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Been kicking myself for not buying on that last dip for about a month now. Wished I'd bought instead of just staring at it every day. That cup and handle does look interesting...
291 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 12, 12:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

you can still buy it now - remember you are missing out on 9.8% ...
292 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 16, 2:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anyone know what the ex-div date is for Oct?
294 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Oct 23, 6:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Just sold my older (2/3) position for no gain, kept the 1/3 position I got at 18.20

I suck at trading, rather have the $4000 in WFC-L earning 5.5% w/ no potential for equity gain, pure dividend play
295 Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 23, 6:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says
rather have the $4000 in WFC-L earning 5.5%


What is this WFC-L? Some form of Wells Fargo stock? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC?p=WFC
296 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2017 Oct 23, 6:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says
What is this WFC-L


Convertible preferred, very similar to BAC-L.

http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=WFC-L&sopt=symbol

Wachovia floated these in April 2008, paying 7.5%, convertible into 32 shares of Wachovia common. After WFC took over WB later in the crisis in 2008, this turned into 6.3814 shares of WFC common if & when WFC common goes over $200.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4024290-buying-opportunity-6-percent-yielding-wells-fargo-preferred
297 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 9:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Arlp - come on now...lets drink some coffee out of that cup and handle
298 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Oct 25, 9:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Not a chartist, but isn’t the cup supposed to come before the handle?

Personally I’m fine with the price going down, so I can buy more. The dividend seems safe either way
299 E-man   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 9:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says
Arlp - come on now...lets drink some coffee out of that cup and handle


Sorry, but that's NOT a cup with handle. From the long-term chart, ARLP hit the downtrend resistance and came back down. If you think $17.65 is the bottom, its short-term uptrend is still intact and this is a good place to add to your position. This stock as well as AHGP will break one way or another in the coming months. Hopefully they will break out instead of breakdown.

Good luck with the trade.
300 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 11:12am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

E-man says
This stock as well as AHGP will break one way or another in the coming months


That is my prediction too of the entire market. I am telling you - its either gonna go up OR down! I am dead sure on this one!

:) :) :)
301 just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 9:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Aaaaand I finally bought 20K worth @20 yesterday haha...
302 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Oct 30, 6:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

ARLP unitholders will receive a cash distribution for the 2017 Quarter of $0.505 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.02 per unit), payable on November 14, 2017 to all unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 7, 2017. The announced distribution represents a 15.4% increase over the cash distribution declared of $0.4375 for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 (the "2016 Quarter") and a 1.0% increase over the cash distribution declared of $0.50 for the quarter ended June 30, 2017 (the "Sequential Quarter").
303 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 30, 11:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Earnings miss unfortunately ...but I take the 0.505
304 SubOink   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 3, 2:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

@Iwog, any new insights to ARLP?

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