ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich
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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By anonymous following x   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am 37,235 views   353 comments   watch   quote     share    



#investing

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1   KaaseThaanKadavul   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 7:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

ARLP and NAC/NKX have been the money makers for me, thank you sir!!

2   man   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 7:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Congrats, this is awesome iwog. I wish I had invested really big in ARLP when you mentioned it few months back.

3   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 8:06am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Gambler wins the lottery, becomes gloriously rich.

4   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 8:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Lottery tickets don't come with a 15% dividend.

5   c1561490   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 8:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

You rock. I've made a decent amount of cash from this one. Thanks!

6   TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 8:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Good call Iwog!

8   theoakman   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 9:13am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Around 2008, I followed Iwog on BGS. This was the second time I followed his recommendation. Got in at 14. Good stuff.

9   someone else   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

i can see iwog has 32 followers (who get emails of his new posts). i just added myself.

10   jimboinsf   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 10:40am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Thanks iwog.

I bought $10k and got in at $16.50. I was hoping for the dividend, didn't expect much capital appreciation.

11   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 12:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Lottery tickets don't come with a 15% dividend.

I can sell you a lottery ticket with a dividend. You want?

12   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 12:42pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I am curious, those who get excited about stock tips, how much of your liquid net worth are you willing to wager on such tips (individual stocks)?

13   BayArea   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 1:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Nice call... you recommended ARLP at $15.96 on June 6th, the same time I recommended TSLA at $196.xx

But you also recommended another one? NAC I think it was?

So what do you do now with ARLP? Sell or hold?

14   Satoshi_Nakamoto   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 2:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Lottery tickets don't come with a 15% dividend.

Dividend or not, in order to get "gloriously rich" from one stock investment you need to put all eggs in one basket. This is a definition of gambling.

15   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 2:30pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

I rarely make investment tips here although when I do, I have to be certain so I come up with about one or two per year.

NAC was my 2014 pick after liquidating all my stocks and I was shilling ARLP at $11 earlier this year.

Still holding ARLP. Can't beat the 15% income and coal keeps going up in price. ARLP is the best of the best in a bad industry so the price takes all the abuse while the profits don't.

16   BayArea   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 3:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

15% is what exactly? Annual dividend?

So you are still recommending it eh? even after today's 10% upswing...

17   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 3:26pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

There's always idiosyncratic risk with individual stocks, so investing a large fraction of one's net worth in any one of them is unwise. On the other hand, making 2-3 trades a year with a small fraction of your cash can't produce much return. It's a waste of time, imho.

NAC is not an individual stock but a leveraged muni CEF with low correlation to the stock market. Everyday hated muni funds a few years ago and they were at a big discount. I have about 50% of my taxable account in muni CEF's (NAC, CEV and VCV). Probably should trim them, but there are capital gains...

18   junkmail   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 3:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Good call.

19   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 4:04pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

FP says

There's always idiosyncratic risk with individual stocks, so investing a large fraction of one's net worth in any one of them is unwise.

This is certainly what most professionals would advise and I don't think it's entirely wrong but what I learned is that actually changing your class, making life changing money as opposed to putting money away for retirement, will at some point require you put yourself at risk for bankruptcy. George Soros is a billionaire because he made one single bet against the Euro and knew his stuff.

I'm certainly not telling anyone to do this but I'm not sure the long term hold diversified portfolio strategy is much better. Especially today.

20   HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2016 Jul 26, 4:10pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Can I help everyone count their fiat currency?

I've got more money than god can materialize.
This is a fact! You can't put anything on the internet that isn't true.
I'll believe everyone's bullshit after a forensic accounting.

21   theoakman   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 5:22pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I basically got my house by putting all my eggs in 1 bucket around 2009 (gold/silver and mining stocks). I got very lucky. Back then, my net worth was about $35k and I was in grad school. I cashed out and bought a home. My appetite for risk has decreased drastically after I got married and had kids. I now have a lot more to lose. Solid dividends with the prospect of capital appreciation is what attracts me. I put about 1% of my net wealth into this play. I'm kicking myself in the head because my gut told me to go in 10%...woulda paid for that god damned disney vacation I have planned next year.

22   BlueSardine   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 5:57pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Precisely why I demand 10 years of tax returns before I pour accolades on the corrupt.

HEY YOU says

I'll believe everyone's bullshit after a forensic accounting.

23   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 6:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

I'm not sure the long term hold diversified portfolio strategy is much better. Especially today.

There are different versions of portfolio strategies. In the long run, returns are ultimately related to overall exposure/leverage. If you stay in cash, your returns are 0. If you make high risk plays, you can only use a small fraction of your capital without risking bankruptcy. If you have a low-volatility portfolio, you can use high leverage.

I think most well-paid people (100k+) who start investing early can reach financial independence by about age 40. Stock picking is probably one of the most inefficient get rich quickly approaches there is.

24   turtledove   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 6:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Well done. Do you only do this for yourself?

25   turtledove   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 6:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

What I meant was do you manage others' money, too?

26   Ironworker   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 7:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Good job Iwog! Are you still thinking about going back in US stock market? The late possible parabolic growth. Or is that too late and you'll just wait on the side lines?

27   MMR   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 7:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FP says

how much of your liquid net worth are you willing to wager on such tips (individual stocks)?

pretty much zero. Most of the people I know with 8 figure net worths in my extended family own very little to no stocks. Even my own parents, their 401 K is prob less than 5% of their net worth.

Engineers who are highly entrepreneurial(billionaire or near billionaire) that I know of personally, on the other hand, have much higher net worths and more than 50% of their net worth is tied up in stocks and options.

Another physician entrepreneur with a privately held firm controlling for profit hospitals, who is a near billionaire/billionaire has far less of his net worth tied up in stocks.

Of course, these are just anecdotes, but I still prefer real estate investing and learning the art and science of using leverage wisely.

28   turtledove   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 7:58pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I prefer to invest in lawyers, personally. Lol.

1) to fight my husband's ex-wife (the littlest darling is eighteen, now, thank God)

2) to fight ex-employers who screw us out of the terms of the contract (hence, the reason we now have our own practice).

So, my portfolio hasn't been what you'd call diversified.

Now that we're finally free, I need to do something. Unfortunately, my training over the last fifteen years has been only in lawyer investing. So, I have a lot to learn. So, Iwog, if you're ever in the mood to talk to someone like she's five about how to do something other than give her money to lawyers, I'm all ears.

Or you could come to the next meet up and I'll sweet talk you into doing the investing for me. I know you think you're immune to charms, but don't count on it ;). Talking people into doing things they said they would never do is one of gifts, which I only use for good, of course.

Hey, I don't want you to be stuck with a snow globe and a Man U shirt. If you picked those up, let me know. I'll send the cash and you can send me the stuff. I'm not sure if I have your email anymore. Let me know.

29   FortWayne   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 8:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

really glad I listened to you. Iwog do you invest professionally for others?

30   anotheraccount   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 9:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

I was shilling ARLP at $11 earlier this year.

I kind feel like I got in too early with you. Then I started having doubts about oil rally and got out too early of ARLP thinking it was just an oil play. ARLP completely decoupled from oil. Good job!

31   someone else   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 26, 9:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

why is the dividend so crazy high anyway?

32   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 26, 9:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

theoakman says

I basically got my house by putting all my eggs in 1 bucket around 2009 (gold/silver and mining stocks). I got very lucky. Back then, my net worth was about $35k and I was in grad school.

Well, that was a smart bet - $35k is easily replaceable, a whole life ahead of you, and 2009 presented a generational opportunity.

33   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 27, 12:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

turtledove says

What I meant was do you manage others' money, too?

Yes, I have been managing an investment trust since 2004.

34   BlueSardine   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 27, 4:35am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Don't get him started...

turtledove says

So, Iwog, if you're ever in the mood to talk to someone like she's five

Are you foreign or domestic???

turtledove says

I know you think you're immune to charms, but don't count on it ;).

35   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 27, 7:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BayAreaObserver says

How do you come up with a 15% dividend ? If you look at the last 6 quarters including the one coming up, I end up with an average of 12.41% and it's trending back down.

Just what I read off of my etrade quote. When I first brought it up, it was paying over 25%.

36   FP   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 27, 7:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says

Yes, I have been managing an investment trust since 2004.

Great. So you must be keeping track of your performance. What's the score card, CAGR and Sharpe ratio?

37   iwog   ignore (1)   2016 Jul 27, 7:35am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

turtledove says

Hey, I don't want you to be stuck with a snow globe and a Man U shirt. If you picked those up, let me know. I'll send the cash and you can send me the stuff. I'm not sure if I have your email anymore. Let me know.

No need. I forgot to buy them in London and Heathrow was such a lunatic asylum that I wasn't able to buy anything there either.

38   epitaph   ignore (0)   2016 Jul 27, 8:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Thank you iwog.

39   BayArea   ignore (0)   2016 Aug 12, 1:47pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Good to be an ARLP owner today

40   someone else   ignore (0)   2016 Aug 12, 2:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Yes, up 4.57%. http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARLP?ltr=1

Anyone know know the latest ex-dividend date and upcoming dividend payout date?

I bought some for myself a few weeks ago.

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