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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By iwog following x   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am 30,940 views   293 comments   watch   quote     share  


#investing

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241 SubOink   2017 Aug 1, 10:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

So august 3rd we'll get a .50 drop right?

242 iwog   2017 Aug 1, 10:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

So august 3rd we'll get a .50 drop right?

Yup, at opening.

243 errc   2017 Aug 3, 9:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

How low can it go,,,with a double digit dividend, when they're touting additional dividend increases?

I'm curious on this AGHP. It's volume is even lower than ARLP, with a larger dividend

244 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 3, 7:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

As long as I get $400/yr dividends I don't care what the price is . . .

245 iwog   2017 Aug 3, 7:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Remember when I first recommended it, the dividend was 25% and the price was $10 a share.

All the news continues to be positive. The export market will continue to grow. ARLP is best of breed and will continue to be run well with low debt.

People get skittish when something seems too good to be true. As soon as all the weak holders are out, it should go up substantially.

246 errc   2017 Aug 3, 8:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

As long as I get $400/yr dividends I don't care what the price is . . .

With our conservative balance sheet intact for the foreseeable future and in consideration of our strong performance and positive outlook, the Alliance board selected to meaningfully increase distributions by 14.3% at ARLP and 32.7% at AHGP compared to the 2017 and the sequential quarter. I think that should (inaudible) sequential quarters. I'm optimistic that ARLP's low-cost operations and strong market position will support additional quarterly distribution increases in the future.

------------

I like the part about additional quarterly distribution increases in the future

247 errc   2017 Aug 9, 7:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Damn the six month chart looks brutal, and arlp keeps getting drubbed. But that dividend tho

And it's still very thinly traded, but the director just bought 10k shares and ownership and institutions are sitting on most of the shares.

Buy more?

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/tuesday-88-insider-buying-report-idxx-arlp-cm828717

248 SubOink   2017 Aug 9, 11:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

errc says

Buy more?

I am thinking the same ...

249 SubOink   2017 Aug 10, 9:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

hard to figure out where another support level is here

250 errc   2017 Aug 10, 10:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

196k shares traded on this beautiful summer day. The guy that runs the joint just bought 10k shares. I hope it keeps going down I have a fat dividend on the way that's getting reinvested.

251 Heraclitusstudent   2017 Aug 10, 10:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Trailing P/E 4.45
Forward P/E 8.89
So this is a company that humm... cheap maybe but is estimated to lose 50% of its earnings in the next year?
And again 50% the following year?

252 theoakman   2017 Aug 10, 12:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm in for another 5k.

253 TwoScoopsMcGee   2017 Aug 10, 12:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Another Iwog hit. Thanks, Iwog.

254 Gade   2017 Aug 23, 10:43pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Coal is out of favor. ARLP has been trending down. Buy more, sell or hold?

255 SubOink   2017 Aug 24, 8:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

17.80 ...

256 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 10:42am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

It looks like a buying oportunity. And I was going to buy a lot just now. But there is this quote of $20.something on buying side of this stock.

Obviously I'm amateur in buying single stocks. I do index funds.

But that seams like a huge difference and f....g rip off by brokers charging $20.3 on buy side when the stock value is 17.9 or so.

Can you guys explain this? Thank you. Like I said I'm kind of newbe buying single stocks. Complete dummie.

257 SubOink   2017 Aug 24, 11:26am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

not sure what you mean - I log into my etrade account and can buy at 18.00 at this very second...(bid ask is 17.95-18.00)

258 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 11:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Wow, thank you for that Subolink. I'm doing something wrong.

I'm using my Vanguard brockerage account and the quote is 20.2.

What am I doing wrong guys?

259 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 11:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

It gives 2 prices - bid and ask $17 and some change when you sell and $20 and change when you buy. That's how am I understanding it.

260 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm sorry guys. I figured it out and bought 2000 shares just now.

261 Patrick   2017 Aug 24, 2:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Ironworker says


rip off by brokers charging $20.3 on buy side when the stock value is 17.9 or so.

Can you guys explain this? Thank you. Like I said I'm kind of newbe buying single stocks. Complete dummie.


First thing is that there are "market makers" who always get the cut between bid and ask prices. You can't avoid that. They are part of the exchanges.

But it's actually illegal for your own broker to buy stock lower and then sell it to you at a higher price. That's called "front running".

When you buy, one way is to do a "market order" which means "buy at whatever the price is now". That will get executed immediately, but won't get you the best price.

The better way, IMHO, is to do a "limit order" which means "buy at this price or lower, or don't buy". That may be slower to execute, but you will get the price you asked or the trade won't happen.
262 Ironworker   2017 Aug 24, 2:43pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Thank you for the explanation Patrick! I'm a proud owner now too.

263 just_passing_through   2017 Aug 24, 8:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

First thing is that there are "market makers" who always get the cut between bid and ask prices. You can't avoid that. They are part of the exchanges.

But it's actually illegal for your own broker to buy stock lower and then sell it to you at a higher price. That's called "front running".

When you buy, one way is to do a "market order" which means "buy at whatever the price is now". That will get executed immediately, but won't get you the best price.

The better way, IMHO, is to do a "limit order" which means "buy at this price or lower, or don't buy". That may be slower to execute, but you will get the price you asked or the trade won't happen.

I remember the day someone explained this to me. It's paid off sooo well over the years.. I've always wanted to explain this to my nephew who is now 19 but I know he's not interested and I only see him on holidays.

Over 2 decades and I still send that guy Christmas cards.

264 Patrick   2017 Aug 24, 9:03pm   ↑ like (4)   ↑ dislike (4)     quote        

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

265 BayArea   2017 Aug 24, 9:17pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do it! Like the Housing Trap, id buy it

266 mell   2017 Aug 24, 9:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm thinking of writing a simple intro to stock investing. I'm not an expert, but I've been investing for 20 years and worked at Charles Schwab for 5 years, so I have some idea of what's going on.

Do that, would probably very useful for many. I just left Schwab recently after day and long-term trading with them for close to 5+ years and a brief but intense spat with theor horrible CS which led to to the divorce ;) They have really gone downhill though StreetSmart Edge is still a decent tool.

267 BayArea   2017 Aug 25, 5:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick, if you go that route, please put some focus in how to value a company.

I.e. Why on paper a company like FND is better than SNAP

268 Patrick   2017 Aug 25, 7:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Yes, my own philosophy is that just as a house has a value which you can calculate from rent, a stock has a value you can calculate from the company's earnings.

269 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 25, 7:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Ironworker says

I'm sorry guys. I figured it out and bought 2000 shares just now.

NICE!

This is a textbook "value trap" but ya it's fun playing the ponies sometime . . .

My BAC-PL is earning 6% (until the common hits $65) but I added some more ARLP @ 18.20 which is currently 11% yield.

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water, but if they recover their bizness we should at least get our money back via the dividends before the whole thing goes titsup.

270 Patrick   2017 Aug 25, 9:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

The one thing that really worries me is their decreasing revenue. But that could turn around if coal becomes more acceptable.

271 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 27, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHHNGSP

is its main competitor. Makes me want to get an CNG-fueled RV!

Well, ICE for the front axle and back axle(s) on electric.

Mitsubishi is actually doing something like this with their Outlander PHEV.

272 SubOink   2017 Aug 28, 10:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

If & when they cut the divvie we're dead in the water,

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

273 iwog   2017 Aug 31, 11:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

so far the talk is to increase it, right?

Yup and they just increased it last quarter. I wouldn't expect them to cut for at least a year and they might increase the dividend further.

274 Bellingham Bill   2017 Aug 31, 8:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
I don't know the particulars, just looking at the dividend history -- the enterprise sorta ran out of gas in 2016, trimming the 68c divvie down to 44c.

Oddly, the price had moved from $50 peak a couple years previously down to $10 right when that happened (I believe that's when iwog backed up the truck)



Going back in time I see this entity steadily went from a 6c divvie back in 1999 to the 68c peak of 2015.

if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.
275 goat   2017 Sep 1, 6:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Bellingham Bill says
if the company can establish that its income and thus 50c divvie is reliable this is an easy double or even triple from here.

if not, back to $10 it goes I guess.


2-3x seems very optimistic imo. I know in the past a 50c div supported a price like that, but I feel at that time there was a much stronger expectation of future growth that allowed such a high share price, and we don't have that same likeliness of future growth anymore. I'm basing this on the forecasts for coal prices and demand in Illinois Basin & Appalachia, where ARLP's coal is mined (2/3 & 1/3, respectively). The few I've seen forecast more or less flat demand, or maybe slight decline in Appalachia.
276 Bellingham Bill   2017 Sep 2, 9:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
At 10% yields if the company can retain its cashflow it can just buy back stock, further strengthening the coverage.

this is the happy place Apple is at, event at 2% dividend yield, since it has SO much cash to get rid of each quarter.

but yeah, like Apple this is a "burning match" no doubt.

277 anonymous   2017 Sep 9, 4:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
is Irma gonna affect ARLP?
278 SubOink   2017 Sep 18, 11:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
What's up ARLP?
279 just_passing_through   2017 Sep 18, 10:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
I'm wondering if this will impact them:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climate-change-ruling-kill-u-153000631.html
"Will This Climate Change Ruling Kill U.S. Coal?"
280 Bellingham Bill   2017 Sep 19, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
just_passing_through says
I'm wondering if this will impact them:

only in a good way it looks like, reducing new competition

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