patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,191,983 comments by 13,864 users - brazil66, ElYorsh, ForcedTQ, HeadSet, richwicks, Stout online now
Homeownership Rates Fall Again! (Almost done going down)
invite response
2016 Jul 28, 9:29am 2,510 views 6 comments
by _ ➕follow (8) 💰tip ignore
Comments 1 - 6 of 6 Search these comments
_
2016 Jul 28, 12:28pm
What do demographics say about buy-rent preference?
People are renting a lot more than usual, which makes 100% sense as there is no more fake loans to get kids into homes anymore.
Once you get over the age of 30, that group that has the capacity to buy, have.
Everything is just delayed from previous cycles a few more years out, so by 2020-2024 that is no longer an excuse anymore. If the demand curve is not better for ownership, then and only then can we use the thesis that affordability has capped out the rate of growth in housing for America.
This cycle, its hard to use that thesis with so many young and old people in the mix. Not to mention the millions of Americans who lost their homes through foreclosure.
I will be shocked if we go below 62.2%, I have taken a lot pride in working this % number out and if we get below 62.2% before 2019 then even I blew it.
However, the downside is limited under 62.2%
_
2016 Jul 28, 12:56pm
Now, some of the people have finally got it that this cycle wasn't the strong demand cycle they were talking about back in 2013.. so some are now pushing .. finally until years 2020-2024.
However, some of their estimates are very high.
Its still way to early to get into that debate, most of these people are hedge fund investor people .
At the housing conference where I get to speak for first time (FUN FUN FUN) that will the be context of the discussion ...
Why people missed it in this cycle, what to look for going ahead..
These are housing firms, hedge funds, economist and for first time the media will be allowed to come.
Should be a good discussion going ahead
_
2016 Jul 28, 12:59pm
Obama
Killed it last night! Great Speech
For All Anti American Bears.. this chart is for you, I posted this last night and I am a Republican too
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW
2016 Jul 28, 1:46pm
What do demographics say about buy-rent preference?
Expect rents to not rise as much as the lump of renters gets closer to buy period. Expect purchase prices to rise as population lump starts to buy. Use that info to enter expected rent and house inflation when using buy/rent calculators. Buy prior to the rest of the people in that lump if you are planning to buy.
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/28/homeownership-rates-fall-again/
62.2% -62.7% call is only 0.02% from happening. The downside is very limited here under 62.2% due to demographic patterns
#Housing