The first 100 horrific days of a Trump presidency
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95   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says

This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.


No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.

Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.
96   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

CIC- again, it's no use having this discussion with you because it's over your head.

If I have a 6 sided die and I say there's only a 16.67% chance it lands on 1, then I roll it and it lands on 1--was I wrong?

Because that's basically what you are saying.

Nate said there's a 30% chance of Trump winning, and he won. Was Nate wrong?
97   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 12:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

joeyjojojunior says
Was Nate wrong?


Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?
98   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says

Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?


He didn't predict anything. He simply averaged the state's polling data and awarded it to the polling leader.
99   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
I have said that it is laughable to use polling statistics to try to convince people that those who voted for Trump are discouraged and disappointed.


Many of them are.
100   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 12:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

joeyjojojunior says
PaisleyPattern says

This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.


No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.

Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.



Here are a few Silver quotes:

I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.

“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.” — July 28, 2015

“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015

“Media: Trump’s doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don’t mean what you think. Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!” — Aug. 9, 2015

“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015

“About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump’s getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?” — Nov. 19, 2015

“Dear media, Please stop freaking out about Donald Trump’s polls.” — Nov. 23, 2015.

“As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump’s chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.” — Nov. 29, 2015

“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015

(in response to Rupert Murdoch tweeting that Trump’s “cross-party appeal” was a “winning strategy”): “Actually, Trump is by far the least popular Republican with independents (and Democrats)”— Jan. 15, 2016

“Wait it’s just now sinking in that Trump might be a wee bit problematic as a general election candidate?” — March 20, 2016

“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016

“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016

“The bad news for Trump is that a poll showing him 5 points down is considered good news for Trump.” — June 26, 2016

“Perhaps the worst take is the ‘Trump’s actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!’ take. He’s the least popular major-party nominee ever.” — Aug. 3, 2016

“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016

“Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy.” — Aug. 18, 2016

“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.
101   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.


No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.

That's if you really want to learn something.
102   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 12:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
PaisleyPattern says
I have said that it is laugshable to use polling statistics to try to convince people that those who voted for Trump are discouraged and disappointed.


Many of them are.


I doubt they are discouraged enough to vote for Hillary in a rematch, or Michelle Obama,or Warren or Biden.
103   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 12:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

joeyjojojunior says
PaisleyPattern says
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.


No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.

That's if you really want to learn something.


Those are his quotes aren’t they?
104   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
I doubt they are discouraged enough to vote for Hillary in a rematch, or Michelle Obama,or Warren or Biden.


Biden would have won easily. Michele Obama was never a candidate. Anyone will be able to beat Trump in 2020, if he survives that long, but by then we'll be in a recession so he'll lose in the primaries.
105   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
joeyjojojunior says
No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles


OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:


How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/


Hey Joey the TROLL, what else you got???


This.
106   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 12:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

joeyjojojunior says
Don't go to conservative hit piece sites-


Like WaPo, are they a conservative hit piece site?

Nate Silver blew it when he missed Trump. Now he really needs to get it right.
..."Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee were flat-out wrong. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/nate-silver-blew-it-when-he-missed-trump-now-he-really-needs-to-get-it-right/2016/10/30/82c1f258-9bab-11e6-b3c9-f662adaa0048_story.html?utm_term=.30430a561dff
107   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
PaisleyPattern says
I doubt they are discouraged enough to vote for Hillary in a rematch, or Michelle Obama,or Warren or Biden.


Biden would have won easily. Michele Obama was never a candidate. Anyone will be able to beat Trump in 2020, if he survives that long, but by then we'll be in a recession so he'll lose in the primaries.


I predict by 2020 Trump will have consolidated power and have gathered support from both Democrats and Republicans. Biden could never have won, Trump would’ve tore him up, too much of a buffoon.
108   Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 12:43pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
Anyone will be able to beat Trump in 2020,


Just like they did in 2016?

Hillary had 90% of the media on her side, all the GOPe, spent double what Trump spent, and she lost BIGLY to a contractor from NY.

Not only did she lose, she lost multiple states that Obama won both times. Talk about a loser!

You mean THAT anyone?
109   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 12:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
I predict by 2020 Trump will have consolidated power and have gathered support from both Democrats and Republicans. Biden could never have won, Trump would’ve tore him up, too much of a buffoon.


Again we see a massive departure from reality. It's fine to predict that somehow a man who has alienated and attacked the people closest to him in his own administration will rally the troops and gain enough support to stay in power.

However it's fucking ridiculous to claim that Biden was a buffoon next to Donald Trump the orange clown.
110   anon_58deb   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 1:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
PaisleyPattern says
I predict by 2020 Trump will have consolidated power and have gathered support from both Democrats and Republicans. Biden could never have won, Trump would’ve tore him up, too much of a buffoon.


Again we see a massive departure from reality. It's fine to predict that somehow a man who has alienated and attacked the people closest to him in his own administration will rally the troops and gain enough support to stay in power.

However it's fucking ridiculous to claim that Biden was a buffoon next to Donald Trump the orange clown.


Trump has defeated the democratic party and is dismantling the Republican Party. After he maintains power and achieves some successes, politicians from both parties will realize which way the wind blows it and will join him. Trump rewards results, and has no time for failure. This is how he motivates people. He also pits them against each other, to try to bring out the best.
Joe Biden has such a weak public persona, and never gained much attention as Obama’s VP. He’s already run twice, the first one ended in scandal and in the second try he didn’t get the nomination. His approach to 2016 was wishy-washy and indecisive. He is old and also has a reputation for creepiness. He had no hope and has no hope in 2020
111   errc   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 7, 1:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

achieves some successes

————

How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.

Do you realize how this makes you look?
112   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 1:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_58deb says
iwog says
PaisleyPattern says
I predict by 2020 Trump will have consolidated power and have gathered support from both Democrats and Republicans. Biden could never have won, Trump would’ve tore him up, too much of a buffoon.


Again we see a massive departure from reality. It's fine to predict that somehow a man who has alienated and attacked the people closest to him in his own administration will rally the troops and gain enough support to stay in power.

However it's fucking ridiculous to claim that Biden was a buffoon next to Donald Trump the orange clown.


Trump has defeated the democratic party and is dismantling the Republican Party. After he maintains power and achieves some successes, politicians from both parties will realize which way the wind blows and will join him. Trump re...



Trump has defeated the Democratic party and is dismantling the Republican Party. After he maintains power and achieves some successes, politicians from both parties will realize which way the wind blows and will join him. Trump rewards results, and has no time for failure. This is how he motivates people. He also pits them against each other, to try to bring out the best.
Joe Biden has such a weak public persona, and never gained much attention as Obama’s VP. He’s already run twice, the first one ended in scandal and in the second try he didn’t get the nomination. His approach to 2016 was wishy-washy and indecisive. He is old and also has a reputation for creepiness. He had no hope in 2016 and has no hope in 2020.
113   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 1:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:


How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump


That was the primary. I'm talking general election.
114   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 1:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
Those are his quotes aren’t they?


Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.

Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016
115   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 1:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
Hillary had 90% of the media on her side


That's also BS.

https://www.good.is/articles/hillary-clinton-negative-press
"It’s no secret that, from the moment she announced her candidacy back in April 2015, Hillary Clinton has been bludgeoned by negative media coverage. The email server; the Wall Street speaking fees; the attacks from both Trump and Sanders. I’ve debated with people who legitimately fear she will be imprisoned before the election. Some, despite the venomous dismissal of my rolling eyes, have called her a murderer. Others: an old woman, a plutocrat, a crook, abused by her husband, no backbone to speak of. But if you’ve suspected that there’s a reason people are saying these things—perhaps parroting disproportionately negative stories they’ve consumed in the media over the past year-and-a-half—it turns out you’re right.
A new report released this week by Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy found Clinton has received far more negative coverage than any other candidate in the race thus far. The study was based on an analysis of news statements from CBS, Fox, the Los Angeles Times, NBC, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post."
116   anon_58deb   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 1:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

joeyjojojunior says
PaisleyPattern says
Those are his quotes aren’t they?


Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.

Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016
.

Nate Silver did call it much closer at the end than a lot of others reading the polls.
117   anon_58deb   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 1:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

errc says
achieves some successes

————

How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.

Do you realize how this makes you look?



Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.
118   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 1:41pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
Trump has defeated the Democratic party and is dismantling the Republican Party.


And his own cabinet. He defeated all the guys he picked and then attacked them on twitter. Donald Trump defeated the Donald Trump administration.

PaisleyPattern says
After he maintains power and achieves some successes, politicians from both parties will realize which way the wind blows and will join him.


Except the people that join him get fired and attacked on twitter.

PaisleyPattern says
Joe Biden has such a weak public persona, and never gained much attention as Obama’s VP.


Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in the polls from 2-4% depending on which poll and when it was taken. Biden polled double-digits against Donald Trump in all of 2016. Biden wouldn't have just beaten Trump, he would have mopped the floor with him.
119   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 1:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.
120   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 1:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.


Yup and the people blocking him MOST of all are the people in the Trump administration. The people Trump hired. They are blocking him so they need to be fired and attacked on twitter.

You know I sound insane saying this stuff but it's even more insane that it's all true. Donald Trump is a fucking joke.
121   PaisleyPattern   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 2:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The people blocking him most are McCain, Corker and Flake. One has cancer and two are retiring. Trump will soon have control of the party and things will start moving.
122   iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 2:42pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

PaisleyPattern says
The people blocking him most are McCain, Corker and Flake. One has cancer and two are retiring. Trump will soon have control of the party and things will start moving.


ROFLOL......blocking DONALD TRUMP??????????

The Republican congress voted to repeal Obamacare 60 times in the last 8 years. The Republican party WILL NEVER repeal NAFTA or any other globalist treaty ever. The Republican congress has always wanted to cut taxes to the bone. The Republican congress will NEVER allow Donald Trump to build a law nor will they ever allow Donald Trump to deport all the illegals.

Donald Trump is carrying water for the Republicans in congress. He's their gimp, their choad, their cuck. The Republicans in congress hold all the cards and they are setting all the policy. End.
123   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 7, 3:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says

Just how deep do you have to dig to find links that support your bullshit? Couldn't you find one on Mother Jones or Think Progress?


It's a Harvard study, you moron.

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