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Congrats IRONMAN, fuck you NATE SILVER


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2016 Nov 9, 4:36am   17,980 views  78 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

Great job on your analysis this election season Ironman.

You were spot from the beginning and did a great job interpreting polling results and finding relevant information regarding the election. If you are ever in the Atlanta area, I'll buy you a few beers. You should create fivethirtynine.com and be the conservative version of Nate.

Now...

Fuck you Nate Silver. You were wrong. Really wrong. Go fuck yourself. HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! I hope you blog dies now that you've lost all credibility.

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1   Tenpoundbass   2016 Nov 9, 5:51am  

Nate was a nobody 18 months ago and he's a nobody today.

2   Strategist   2016 Nov 9, 5:53am  

Ironman was right all along. He deserves a few beers.

3   lostand confused   2016 Nov 9, 5:58am  

Nate probably realized his bias would damage his credibility and tried to change in the end-too late. But LA times and couple of the tracking polls were pretty accurate.

NBC polls ha dher at 12% or so ahead. Haha!

Oh and Huffington post had her at 98% chance of winning the presidency-hahahahaha!!!!!!

4   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 6:05am  

lostand confused says

But LA times and couple of the tracking polls were pretty accurate.

Funny how much shit the libs on this site gave the LA Times poll... hahahah!!!

5   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 6:08am  

Tenpoundbass says

Nate was a nobody 18 months ago and he's a nobody today.

THat could be said about you TPB, but not him.

He was big in 2012, when they got every state right. HE's not even a pollster, he's a statistician and analyst.

As of a few days ago, a lot of people were saying Hillary was avor 90% to win. 538 had her at 65%, which was lower than even the betting markets. So he had Trump at about 1/3 chance of winning.

You idiots think this means Nate was wrong.

Guess what, when the cubs were down 3 - 1, Nate's site had them at 15% to go all the way. That doesn't make Nate an idiot.

6   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 6:37am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You idiots think this means Nate was wrong.

So.... was Nate right?

Wait for it.........

7   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 6:59am  

joshuatrio says

So.... was Nate right?

Wait for it.........

You tell me. If someone says something has a 1 in 3 chance of happening and it happens, were they wrong ?

8   junkmail   2016 Nov 9, 7:01am  

Nice work ironman. Have to give credit where credit due.

9   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 7:09am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You tell me. If someone says something has a 1 in 3 chance of happening and it happens, were they wrong ?

Not only was Nate was WRONG about Trump in the primaries - his election model was WRONG and his personal prediction was WRONG.

He struck out three times with Trump.

10   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 7:13am  

joshuatrio says

Not only was Nate was WRONG about Trump in the primaries

Nate had Trump winning most of the primaries. His model gave Trump a better chance than many other analysts. He talked about the large numbers of undecideds and Hillary's electoral college problems. That's why he gave TRump such a high chance.

His credibility is in tact.If he were a pollster, then you might have a point.

Idiocracy is here folks.

What you can not fathom is that his 1 in 3 assessment of the probability maybe have been as good as it possibly could have been. I'm not saying that it was. But you don't get it. This wasn't about guessing right.

11   AllTruth   2016 Nov 9, 7:18am  

Congrats to Ironman, AND to freespeechforever, who predicted almost precisely this on November 2nd:

https://patrick.net/Time+is+NOW:+Predict+next+President-elect.+Revisit+*Tonight*.+Don't+be+shy.

"By freespeechforever follow   Nov 2, 10:39am   ↑ You like this (6)   ↓ Dislike (1)   3 links   1,546 views   148 comments  
Trump.

Revolution is in the air, driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters in modern-American history.

Trump will get MANY votes of those in their 40s, 50s and 60s who've not voted in many, many years (maybe decades).

It's Brexit on steroids, driven by many of the reasons cited by Michael Moore.

It doesn't hurt his odds that Hillary is an utter piece-of-shit who causes even most Democratic-affiliated voters the need to hold their noses.

Biggest surprises:

1) Trump will win 80%+ of male vote.

2) Hillary's "massive" edge with women will fizzle into less than 9% advantage.

3) African-Americans will only cast 70% of the # of votes for Hillary that they did for Obama in 2008 or 2012.

4) Millennials will not turn out in anywhere near the numbers that they did in 2008, and those who do will vote in surprisingly large numbers for Jill Stein.

5) Trump will win North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania (in addition to Florida & Ohio - he'll win by double digits in Ohio).

#EstablishmentInFullPanic

#AmericanBrexit

#MiddleClassRevolution

Watch (1)   Share   Quote  "

12   Strategist   2016 Nov 9, 7:19am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You tell me. If someone says something has a 1 in 3 chance of happening and it happens, were they wrong ?

Anyone can make predictions using probabilities and never be right or wrong. Big deal.

13   Strategist   2016 Nov 9, 7:20am  

Ironman says

Thanks everyone.

I owe you a beer on a cruise ship.

14   Strategist   2016 Nov 9, 7:23am  

Ironman says

Nate's final chart.

15   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 7:27am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Nate had Trump winning most of the primaries. His model gave Trump a better chance than many other analysts. He talked about the large numbers of undecideds and Hillary's electoral college problems. That's why he gave TRump such a high chance.

His credibility is in tact.If he were a pollster, then you might have a point.

Idiocracy is here folks.

Marcus, he was wrong. His models failed him. He went on his own bias and lost big (3 times). I'm sorry you butthurt liberals can't see through the fact that your "prince nate" isn't all he's cracked up to be.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

What you can not fathom is that his 1 in 3 assessment of the probability maybe have been as good as it possibly could have been. I'm not saying that it was. But you don't get it. This wasn't about guessing right.

Wow.... getting desperate eh? This WAS about guessing right. Otherwise, Nate wouldn't be in business in the first place.

I agree, started backpedaling near the end, but it was too late. Isn't Nate's claim to fame predicting every state for Obama? If so, he came no where close for this one. Hell, my prediction was closer than his was...

Let's see... he missed, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania

I missed... Wisconsin. Holy shit! I should start a blog now.

Nate's prediction on top, mine on the bottom:

marcus is NOT deplorable says

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Idiocracy is here folks.

Truth hurts.

For the record, here was my prediction: https://patrick.net/Post+your+Election+Maps+here

16   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 9, 8:09am  

Nate Lead, more like it.

17   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 8:38am  

Ironman says

It's really sad where we are in the country that the polling companies have to manipulate the data they publish to make their overlords happy. I hope they wake up now.

Plus, the majority of the media has really done the country a disservice with all the fake and false reporting. Maybe they'll wake up now, but I doubt it.

Agree. You pointed this out the entire election season... Trump did as well. It was pretty amazing seeing so many states turn red, that were supposed to be blue.

18   mell   2016 Nov 9, 9:34am  

Ironman says

My wife called me from her office, she works in the pharma field with high level professionals. She told me many of her female co-workers are walking around MAJORLY bitching that Trump won. But, she told me they are spewing the primary "talking points" that have been spewed by CNN, WaPo, NYT, etc., he's racist, he assaults women, he's vulgar, he doesn't pay his taxes, etc....

These are professional women that got sucked into the false narrative of the MSM.... I really wonder if there is hope for this country...

Maybe we really are TOTALLY FUCKED in this country?

Agreed. This is still the main false narrative. Bigotry, hatred, misogyny blah blah. These are working mothers and their concern should be for their family and loved ones, fiscally and emotionally, not about some other people whose stories they cannot verify. This is where the nuclear family breaks apart, pushed my the regressive left and their media pundits.

19   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 9, 9:36am  

Ironman says

I'm just glad that Hillary didn't win, she's just plain evil.

Same here. I didn't care if Johnson won. Hillary had too much baggage, and has escaped prison one too many times. The list of scandals under that family is mind blowing.

Ironman says

My wife called me from her office, she works in the pharma field with high level professionals. She told me many of her female co-workers are walking around MAJORLY bitching that Trump won. But, she told me they are spewing the primary "talking points" that have been spewed by CNN, WaPo, NYT, etc., he's racist, he assaults women, he's vulgar, he doesn't pay his taxes, etc....

Incredibly sad.

21   Shaman   2016 Nov 9, 9:43am  

The gender split can be explained by the differences in how men and women think. Men tend to be more problem oriented. Women tend to be more socially oriented. Thus, given a situation where the media is pushing the idea that all of society hates Trump and wouldn't vote for him, they'll latch onto reasons to follow the social herd. Men, however, retain much more tolerance for holding different opinions that fly in the face of social norms.
So media manipulation works way better on women than on men.
And nobody can honestly argue that the media wasn't in full fledged propaganda mode against Trump for months!

22   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 9, 9:44am  

As an aside, anybody realize

Our First Lady is freakin' HOT

23   Tenpoundbass   2016 Nov 9, 9:48am  

Everytime someone would hit me with one of these I would just say. You can't listen to CNN and Huffing Poo!

24   Tenpoundbass   2016 Nov 9, 9:54am  

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-seth-meyers-roast-trump-2011-presidential-election-2016-11

At the 2011 White House Correspondents dinner, Seth Meyers and President Obama joked about the possibilityof a Trump White House run.

25   freespeechforever   2016 Nov 9, 9:55am  

White male AND FEMALE working-class & middle-class (and also most blacks and Hispanics) have been GIVEN THE SHAFT UNDER OBAMA & HITLERY AS THE DEMOCRATS SUCKED WALL STREET & BANK COCK FOR 8 LONG YEARS LIKE NO ADMINISTRATIONS BEFORE - Democratic OR Republican.

Obama was Wall Street's, Big Pharma 's, Big Banks, Big Corporations', Big Defense's ERRAND BOY.

The white working-class and middle-class are under immense stress in no small part because of Obama/Clintons.

So are blacks and Latinos.

Let's see if Trump acts more independently than Obama/Bush/Clintons.

26   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 9, 9:55am  

Tenpoundbass says

Everytime someone would hit me with one of these I would just say. You can't listen to CNN and Huffing Poo!

TBD, you stupid redneck dumbass. Are you disagreeing with the HOLY, UNIMPEACHABLE NUMBERS? Why, the finest Minds insist they are correct!

27   indigenous   2016 Nov 9, 10:13am  

The trippy thing was how the bookies had it wrong too, it was funny to watch how the odds changed in a hurry last night.

Hat Tip to CIC

What specifically were you looking at that looked hinky to you?

28   indigenous   2016 Nov 9, 2:56pm  

That is interesting.

What do you think of the contention that Trump won because of a low D voter turn out.

Or was this because Obama worked to get a higher voter turn out? Using ACORN.

29   turtledove   2016 Nov 9, 3:20pm  

Hats off to you Ironman! You kept the faith while others of us weakened under the theory "why would so many organizations be lying about his chances." Seemed hard to imagine, but turned out to be exactly what was happening.

Well... That.... Or someone posted a stunning picture that may have converted vast swathes of undecided voters into Trump supporters.

Either way ;)

30   indigenous   2016 Nov 9, 4:04pm  

So then the bookies missed that the polls were rigged too? I mean if you can't trust the bookies who can you trust?

31   indigenous   2016 Nov 9, 4:10pm  

I guess so, but they make their living off of being right. It cost them when they are wrong.

32   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 8:59pm  

Strategist says

Anyone can make predictions using probabilities and never be right or wrong. Big deal.

It's also true that someone can make the most accurate possible assessments of probability, and guess what ? One third of the time they assess that something has a one in three chance of happening, it happens.

I'm not sure what's so difficult for you guys to understand about this. What ? You think with the state polls Nate he had access to, the same ones everyone else had access to, he should have been able to say that Trump was the favorite ?

33   turtledove   2016 Nov 9, 9:04pm  

It's also true that someone can make the most accurate possible assessments of probability, and guess what ? One third of the time they predict that something has a one in three chance of happening, it happens.

I'm not sure what's so difficult for you guys to understand about this. What ? You think with the state polls Nate he had access to, the same ones everyone else had access to, he should have been able to say that Trump was the favorite ?
=====================
Shit! Did anyone remember Nate's participation trophy?

34   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 9:18pm  

Another proud idiot.

35   turtledove   2016 Nov 9, 9:19pm  

Giant alligator tears....

36   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 9, 9:21pm  

The real reason the polls were wrong: Shy Tory Syndrome

They lied to polsters because the media demonized Trump supporters.

37   marcus   2016 Nov 9, 9:24pm  

Nobody is proud of their own stupidity like today's right wingers.

38   Y   2016 Nov 9, 9:33pm  

Wow. And trump has announced a hit list...
mayers is toast.

Tenpoundbass says

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-seth-meyers-roast-trump-2011-presidential-election-2016-11

At the 2011 White House Correspondents dinner, Seth Meyers and President Obama joked about the possibilityof a Trump White House run.

39   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 10, 4:29am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Another proud idiot.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, Nate Silver's biggest supporter.

40   joshuatrio   2016 Nov 10, 4:34am  

Fixed.

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