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follow Heraclitusstudent 2016 Nov 14, 4:21pm
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The historian Pierre Rosanvallon regrets that â€œmany genuine democrats hate populism but fail to understand its deep roots.â€ It is not enough to protest the consequences of populism, he told me; you also need self-criticism. And Mrs. Clinton, he noted, has not been particularly good at self-criticism.
Too bad the prediction market always knows this.
I successfully predicted Brexit and Trump this year. Have to say, Le Pen's chances are slightly worse than Trump's.
I am not going to make a bet at 40+% implied probability.