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For Le Pen, the Impossible Now Seems Possible
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2016 Nov 14, 4:21pm 884 views 2 comments
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Peter P
2016 Nov 14, 7:46pm
Peter P
2016 Nov 14, 7:46pm
Too bad the prediction market always knows this.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3568/Will-Marine-Le-Pen-be-elected-President-of-France-in-2017
I successfully predicted Brexit and Trump this year. Have to say, Le Pen's chances are slightly worse than Trump's.
I am not going to make a bet at 40+% implied probability.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/opinion/for-le-pen-the-impossible-now-seems-possible.html
The historian Pierre Rosanvallon regrets that “many genuine democrats hate populism but fail to understand its deep roots.†It is not enough to protest the consequences of populism, he told me; you also need self-criticism. And Mrs. Clinton, he noted, has not been particularly good at self-criticism.