patrick.net

This correlates to what I've been seeing in a slight decline of shipping traffic from China.
Keeping US wages low has its consequences.

Quigley is sad says

This correlates to what I've been seeing in a slight decline of shipping traffic from China.

Keeping US wages low has its consequences.

Yes, this is a coming recession no matter what but Trump could make it a lot worse by trade barriers and a nasty relationship with trading partners. Ironman says

Ironman says: Don't blame it on me.

I thought you might be interested in the name play. :)

Gary Anderson says

Yes, this is a coming recession no matter what but Trump could make it a lot worse by trade barriers and a nasty relationship with trading partners.

There is no coming recession. Just a long awaited full recovery.

ZIRP could not make up for the Millions of jobs lost and the exports that created real revenues.

ZIRP did however create elite arbitrage, and drive up housing prices to CRA levels.

A recession would be an improvement over the depression we've been in since 2008.
Trump will MAGA & I'm a genius.

Strategist says

There is no coming recession. Just a long awaited full recovery.

Wrong.

HEY YOU says

A recession would be an improvement over the depression we've been in since 2008.

Trump will MAGA & I'm a genius.

I am worried that he may take the libertarian track and just liquidate the entire economy. Bernanke did a good job of it in 2008, but Trump could force the Fed to do more.

Or, he just wants runaway inflation, which probably would liquidate the financial system.

Gary Anderson says

HEY YOU says

A recession would be an improvement over the depression we've been in since 2008.


Trump will MAGA & I'm a genius.

I am worried that he may take the libertarian track and just liquidate the entire economy. Bernanke did a good job of it in 2008, but Trump could force the Fed to do more.

Or, he just wants runaway inflation, which probably would liquidate the financial system.

Stop living in la la land. We never had a depression in 2008. We are in a slow and pathetic economic recovery. Trump has no intention of hurting the economy. There is no such thing as "liquidate the financial system"
Trump is a real estate tycoon. I am counting on him to reenergize housing and make me rich.
Your evil capitalistic friend.

Gary Anderson says

Or, he just wants runaway inflation, which probably would liquidate the financial system.

I doubt that's what he or any other wealthy person wants. However, a big jump in inflation would be an absolute boon to middle class Americans who are mostly indebted, making their debt worth less and their houses worth more. If inflation jumped half the amount it did in the late 70s, about 100%, I would personally be sitting very pretty as my house value also would double giving me massive equity and, presumably, a commensurate rise in wages that would make it easy to pay off the balance.

So don't try to scare me with inflation. It's what I'm actually hoping for, in the long run.

Strategist says

We never had a depression in 2008. We are in a slow and pathetic economic recovery. Trump has no intention of hurting the economy. There is no such thing as "liquidate the financial system"

Yes, the Fed liquidated the system in the 1930's and in 2008. Houses were returned to the banks and wages were forced down. I wrote about it: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/fed-great-depression-and-great-recession-liquidations-go-unexplained?post=91522&uid=4798Strategist says

. Trump has no intention of hurting the economy.

I hope you are right.

Quigley is sad says

However, a big jump in inflation would be an absolute boon to middle class Americans who are mostly indebted, making their debt worth less and their houses worth more. If inflation jumped half the amount it did in the late 70s, about 100%, I would personally be sitting very pretty as my house value also would double giving me massive equity and, presumably, a commensurate rise in wages that would make it easy to pay off the balance.

So don't try to scare me with inflation. It's what I'm actually hoping for, in the long run.

Yes, a return to the old days is why Trump was elected. But consider this, Quigley: The Fed gave away its power to raise rates to stop inflation. So, if inflation gets out of hand, the Fed's hands are tied. In the old days, the Savings and Loans went under when Volcker raised the rates. Now, the entire financial system will go under if that were tried again, because of derivatives and derivatives collateral, bonds! The Fed cannot let inflation get close to out of control all because of structured finance.

Gary Anderson says

. Trump has no intention of hurting the economy.

I hope you are right.

Hurting the economy would end up hurting his finances. No one wants the American economy hurt, except for our enemies.

I don't know, now that world economy is linked, we all have some self interest in shared successes or hah, shared out of control spending. I sometimes think those countries that suffering now with bad inflation are a bit of a canary in the coal mines for the bigger countries piling on the debts, mostly because they tried the debt based approach and failed with uncontrollable inflation, or the pensions failed, etc.

It's a little scary to know that the teetering government debt is what is in part keeping the economy afloat, who has a checkbook that never needs to get balanced, governments don't get to win lotteries, and I don't think they can bail themselves out into perpetuity.

everything says

t's a little scary to know that the teetering government debt is what is in part keeping the economy afloat, who has a checkbook that never needs to get balanced, governments don't get to win lotteries, and I don't think they can bail themselves out into perpetuity.

Well, in the new normal, debt is gold. Debt is used for collateral for treasuries. At least 4-8 trillon dollars of treasuries are used as collateral. That changes the game, although it would be nice to be able to measure the number.

Strategist says

Hurting the economy would end up hurting his finances. No one wants the American economy hurt, except for our enemies.

Unless he and his buddies don't really grasp the new normal and how powerful it is, just how many trillions of dollars of bonds make the foundation of the clearinghouses that carry most of the systemic risk. I don't think they do. They could mistakenly hurt the economy and themselves.