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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment


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2016 Dec 15, 4:56pm   2,231 views  7 comments

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"The Sharp Decline in U.S. Manufacturing employment is closely linked to a change in U.S. trade policy granting China Permanent Normal Trade Relation Status".

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.

Shorter Version, Easier to Read, Graphs Etc. - https://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/signatureinitiatives/china/G2_at_GW/G213papers/session1/PeterSchott.pdf

Longer Version, Original Paper, PDF - 55 pages: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18655.pdf

Related: US Grants Permanent Normal Trade Status to China. http://en.people.cn/200112/28/eng20011228_87634.shtml

"Open trade is a force for freedom in China, a force for stability in Asia, and a force for prosperity in the United States," Bush said. "And this is not just my personal view.

#economics #China #trade #PNTR

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1   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Dec 15, 5:39pm  

Yep, it was wayyyy too Swift to be a trend; and it was a political outcome. I bet print news has taken longer to collapse

anonymous says

"Open trade is a force for freedom in China,

ROTFL. Democratic and civil liberties have bloomed since China had one-way open trade with the USA. hahahaha

2   marcus   2016 Dec 15, 6:06pm  

Just out of curiosity, Is a secretary or accountant that works at a manufacturing company a "manufacturing job ?"

Because if they are, I think about half of that drop that occurred after 1993 is probably attributable to the PC. Even more if you then include other data, financial and other computer systems.

Then many of the software and consultant jobs that replace those jobs are under the IT category.

3   Strategist   2016 Dec 15, 6:17pm  

marcus says

Just out of curiosity, Is a secretary or accountant that works at a manufacturing company a "manufacturing job ?"

Pretty good question. My guess, it is a manufacturing job because they categorize it by industry.

4   HEY YOU   2016 Dec 15, 6:21pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Adam Smith wrote about it in his books - "And then a slave state in East Asia does all the manufacturing for the whole world with its army's guns pointed at the heads of the workers."

trump will bring manufacturing back to america.
Ammo sales will boom Bosses need to keep their weapons loaded & american workers in line.
You don't get a paycheck each week.YOU PAY US!

5   missing   2016 Dec 15, 6:41pm  

marcus, in your school, are there now less secretaries than when they were using typewriters? Because in my university (department) their number is exactly the same.

If your thesis is right, it means that >1/4 of all manufacturing jobs in the 80's were administrative.

6   NDrLoR   2016 Dec 15, 6:57pm  

FP says

in your school, are there now less secretaries

Probably many more considering the layers of bureaucracy attendent in the world of education today. 50-60 years ago, the faculties pretty much ran the colleges, made decisions about hiring and firing, campus policies, et al. Today its done by layers of administration.

7   RWSGFY   2016 Dec 15, 7:29pm  

marcus says

Just out of curiosity, Is a secretary or accountant that works at a manufacturing company a "manufacturing job ?"

Because if they are, I think about half of that drop that occurred after 1993 is probably attributable to the PC.

Huh? In 1993 PC was a decade-old-news. And computerized accounting was two-decade-old news.

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