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Thoughts on Starbucks (sbux) ?


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2017 Feb 9, 8:54am   13,905 views  39 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

I had a good profit on Starbucks in the last couple of years, and was getting slightly worried that they could not grow enough more to justify a p/e of 22, so I sold it. Was in a retirement account so no tax implications.

Also kinda worried that they are getting far too political, telling employees to talk about race with customers, and deliberately saying they were going to hire 10,000 Muslim immigrants. That makes me worry that management is more focused on social engineering than on profits for shareholders.

Anyone else have an opinion? I could easily buy it back with no harm done, just looking for reasons.

#investing

Comments 1 - 39 of 39        Search these comments

1   Done   2017 Feb 9, 9:12am  

Technically it's a buy w/odds and confirmation and the likelihood of testing the last high
and perhaps adding a couple of bucks on the top. Next earnings is 4/27 so maybe buy with
the thought of dumping in that era of time....

2   indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:16am  

Go with your gut, their best growth is behind them.

Not the best dividend, high price, I agree sell

3   Done   2017 Feb 9, 9:20am  

indigenous says

Go with your gut, there best growth is behind them.

lol Yeah guts (emotion) is the best way to make your trading decisions.

4   indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:20am  

Gray box

What is your opinion on Gpro

5   indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:22am  

Graybox says

guts

do not equal emotion.

My understanding is a major or 1st factor is growth. Do you really see them continuing to grow much?

6   Done   2017 Feb 9, 9:31am  

SBUX - Summary
Buy. Rating B

Reward A-Excellent
Risk C+Fair

GrowthExcellent
EfficiencyExcellent
SolvencyExcellent
Total ReturnFair
VolatilityFair
DividendFair

7   Done   2017 Feb 9, 9:35am  

indigenous says

Gray box

What is your opinion on Gpro

Gpro Is a no-go, although price may want to fill the gap created 2/3 for a quick trade.

GPRO - Summary
Sell Rating D-

Reward E+Very Weak
Risk D Weak

GrowthWeak
EfficiencyVery Weak
SolvencyExcellent
Total ReturnVery Weak
VolatilityWeak
Dividend--

8   indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:43am  

Thx

Hard to imagine Starbucks has a good growth projection.

9   Done   2017 Feb 9, 10:02am  

indigenous says

Hard to imagine Starbucks has a good growth projection.

I don't really have an opinion on SBUX growth expectation, those are not my ratings just sharing what I found.
Technically price has confirmed it is looking to test higher, I'm not a traditional investor so I'm just sharing what
I see on a technical level.

10   zzyzzx   2017 Feb 9, 11:21am  

For all I know, the whole market saturation thing may be an exclusively North American thing.

For the most part Starbucks is a commodity that can be replicated and undercut by anyone willing to try, and there is a relatively low barrier to entry for competitors.

Personally, I would tend to avoid StarBucks or anything like it since basically it's just a store. That and I fucking hate coffee.

11   Done   2017 Feb 9, 12:03pm  

Nice job Patrick you took off some leverage and good profit, that's how you do it.

At the same time it's not at a bad area to test price actually buying into the trend (mo.). which
the line in the sand for support is just below price 3.5 points which is not to bad risk if you want
a position. That line was not breached so the trend is still intact and price is positioned basically on the line.
Below that then all bets off and they could get hit really hard. $54+/- is decent support so if price does test
54 - 52.5 test buy those areas on what ever trade confiration you use however kill the deal if price breaks
much below 52.5. SBUX is at the buying level of counter trend trading which is the environment 60% of the time
not to mention the large gap that is likely to be filled..

That would be my profile and approach anyway as more of a trade then investment.

12   MAGA   2017 Feb 9, 1:02pm  

Rather pricey coffee and treats. Wonder how sales are going to be if the economy tanks. I typically spend around $5 a day at SB.

13   Patrick   2017 Feb 9, 1:18pm  

Anyone know how I could get an email alert when SBUX goes below, say, 50?

14   BayArea   2017 Feb 9, 1:48pm  

Any company that willingly steps into political space is risking pissing off upwards of 50% of the population.

Combine that with the fact that their best growth years are now behind them, I'd proceed cautiously with this one.

15   Booger   2017 Feb 9, 3:27pm  

rando says

Anyone know how I could get an email alert when SBUX goes below, say, 50?

I would imagine that there is a way to do this, possibly through your brokerage account. For now just add it to your watch list and put in a good till cancelled buy order at 50.

18   FortWayne   2017 Feb 26, 11:33am  

I'm a shareholder, I still see their stores packed with customers.

I don't like them getting into politics, I think it's stupid but I don't know if it'll affect them enough for people to care. Kind of like chick-filet... after a month of whining everyone just let it go and went back to eating chicken.

19   zzyzzx   2017 Feb 27, 8:55am  

https://thewashingtonpress.com/starbucks-ceo-if-you-support-traditional-marriage-we-dont-want-your-business/
Starbucks CEO: “If You Support Traditional Marriage We Don’t Want Your Business”

20   theoakman   2017 Feb 27, 9:18am  

jvolstad says

Rather pricey coffee and treats. Wonder how sales are going to be if the economy tanks. I typically spend around $5 a day at SB.

We already saw what happened to Starbucks when the economy tanked. Pretty much nothing. I know people who were still getting their daily drink there while on the brink of foreclosure.

21   Done   2017 Apr 24, 6:52am  

Patrick says

I could easily buy it back with no harm done, just looking for reasons.

So, Patrick did you buy back in?

22   anonymous   2017 Apr 24, 7:00am  

zzyzzx says

Best Pepe ever

23   Patrick   2017 Apr 24, 8:37am  

Graybox says

So, Patrick did you buy back in?

No. Looking for something with better growth potential.

25   Done   2017 Apr 24, 8:47am  

Dividend play with Low P/E

Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. (FCPT:NYSE)
Sector:
Real Estate
Price:
$23.53
Market Cap:
1.41B
 
P/E:
9.02
Dividend Yield:
4.12%

26   FortWayne   2017 Apr 24, 8:49am  

Google and uber?

27   Done   2017 Apr 24, 8:51am  

Nice low risk value stock

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN:NYSE)
Sector:
Real Estate
Price:
$4.73
Market Cap:
334.16M
 
P/E:
2.25
Dividend Yield:
7.19%

28   Done   2017 Apr 24, 8:53am  

Another nice potential growth stock.

Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.TO:TSX)
Sector:
Industrials
Price:
$7.47
Market Cap:
634.40M
 
P/E:
11.21
Dividend Yield:
5.35%

29   Done   2017 Apr 24, 8:54am  

Superior Plus Corp. (SPB.TO:TSX)
Sector:
Utilities
Price:
$13.07
Market Cap:
1.39B
 
P/E:
8.92
Dividend Yield:
5.51%

30   Patrick   2017 Apr 24, 9:06am  

Thanks I will look into those!

31   anonymous   2017 Apr 24, 2:16pm  

Their coffee sucks.

32   zzyzzx   2017 Aug 9, 9:33am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/each-starbucks-now-has-almost-4-other-starbucks-within-1-mile-bmo.html
Starbucks saturation fears: Each store now has almost 4 other Starbucks within 1 mile

BMO downgraded Starbucks shares after research indicated store overlap across the United States may be harming sales.

There are now 3.6 Starbucks locations within a one-mile radius of the typical Starbucks, according to analyst Andrew Strelzik.

Beverage innovation may be driving greater switching across products among existing customers, rather than incremental sales.

Starbucks cafes are facing mounting competition from other Starbucks locations and that's going to hurt the stock, one Wall Street firm said Wednesday.

BMO Capital Markets downgraded Starbucks shares to market perform from outperform after its researched indicated that store overlap has grown to such an extreme point that they are hurting each other's sales.

"Cannibalization likely has increased," wrote BMO analyst Andrew Strelzik in the note. "Strong new store performance appears to be coming – at least in part – at the expense of existing store traffic."

Strelzik's analysis not only suggests problems in boosting sales growth, but also that the pace of U.S. development should be slowed. The research showed that annual increase in store overlap across Starbucks' U.S. footprint has accelerated by more than three times over the last few years.

BMO used two metrics to gauge the likelihood and trajectory of cannibalization: the percentage of U.S. locations that have another Starbucks store within a one-mile radius and the average number of U.S. locations within that one-mile radius.

"Seventy-five percent of Starbucks locations in California (Starbucks' largest U.S. market representing approximately 20 percent of its U.S. footprint) now have a store within a one-mile radius," Strelzik said. "There are now 3.6 Starbucks locations within a one-mile radius of the typical Starbucks in the U.S. relative to 3.3 and 3.2 stores in 2014 and 2012 respectively."

BMO research lowered its 12-month price target to $56 from $64, representing nearly 3 percent upside from Tuesday's close. Starbucks shares fell 1.6 percent Wednesday on the downgrade.

Multiple Wall Street firms recently lowered ratings on Starbucks shares in July after the company gave weaker-than-expected sales guidance and announced the closure of all its Teavana stores.

This self-inflicted competition comes as other coffee companies ramp up their own expansions.

"The competitors we analyzed have a store within one mile of 70 percent of Starbucks' units in these markets most recently, up from 66 to 67 percent in 2012 and 2014," added the analyst.

And as far as beverage innovation and the introduction of breakfast foods are concerned, BMO research isn't optimistic.

"Specialty beverage growth may be nearing saturation among existing customers as the percentage of Starbucks U.S. orders that include specialty beverages declined from year-ago levels," wrote Strelzik. "Beverage innovations may drive greater switching across products among existing customers, rather than incremental sales."

33   Patrick   2017 Aug 9, 2:19pm  

http://www.theonion.com/article/new-starbucks-opens-in-rest-room-of-existing-starb-560

Starbucks, the nation's largest coffee-shop chain, continued its rapid expansion Tuesday, opening its newest location in the men's room of an existing Starbucks.

"Coffee lovers just can't stand being far from their favorite Starbucks gourmet blends," said Chris Tuttle, Starbucks vice-president of franchising. "Now, people can enjoy a delicious Frappuccino or espresso just about any time they please, even while defecating."

The new men's-room-based Starbucks, the coffee giant's 1,531st U.S. location, will be open to both men and women when not "in use." In addition to offering specialty coffees from around the world, it will serve freshly baked pastries, Italian pannini sandwiches and soups, as well as the rest room's usual selection of toilet paper and soap.

34   anonymous   2017 Aug 9, 5:32pm  

rando says

"Now, people can enjoy a delicious Frappuccino or espresso just about any time they please, even while defecating."

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

35   indigenous   2017 Aug 9, 5:41pm  

just any guy says

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

Is that a new trend?

36   anonymous   2017 Aug 23, 8:52pm  

indigenous says

just any guy says

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

Is that a new trend?

It's a new blend.

37   Booger   2017 Sep 24, 6:20pm  

http://uconservative.com/2017/08/09/boycott-success-starbucks-begs-conservatives-come-back/
BOYCOTT SUCCESS: Starbucks BEGS Conservatives to Come Back

Having decreased sales for five consecutive proves a very valid point – Conservative dollar matters. It appears that Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz’ repeated attacks on Conservatives cost him big time. The whole situation hit him where it hurts the most – in the pocketbook.

According to financial analysts, the reason behind it is Schultz’s Leftist activism.

Everything started when Starbucks decided to eliminate religion from its holiday promotions. The company stopped using “Merry Christmas” on their holiday cups.This caused for president Trump to call upon a boycott of the company during a campaign rally in November 2015.

Another reason for the company’s financial fail is Schultz’ endorsement of Hillary Clinton in September 2016.

The last straw came in January, when Schultz announced that Starbucks would preferentially hire refugees worldwide.

Starbucks lost 24% of its brand value.
38   Patrick   2017 Sep 24, 8:01pm  

The stock is still below its peak of two years ago:

39   FortWayne   2017 Sep 24, 8:05pm  

I would prefer their CEO stayed the hell out of politics. It's my only problem with sbux.

NFL is going same way, and it won't be good for them either.

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