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Thoughts on Starbucks (sbux) ?

By someone else following x   2017 Feb 9, 8:54am 7,275 views   41 comments   watch   quote     share  

I had a good profit on Starbucks in the last couple of years, and was getting slightly worried that they could not grow enough more to justify a p/e of 22, so I sold it. Was in a retirement account so no tax implications.

Also kinda worried that they are getting far too political, telling employees to talk about race with customers, and deliberately saying they were going to hire 10,000 Muslim immigrants. That makes me worry that management is more focused on social engineering than on profits for shareholders.

Anyone else have an opinion? I could easily buy it back with no harm done, just looking for reasons.

#investing

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2 indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:16am   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

Go with your gut, their best growth is behind them.

Not the best dividend, high price, I agree sell

3 Graybox   2017 Feb 9, 9:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

indigenous says

Go with your gut, there best growth is behind them.

lol Yeah guts (emotion) is the best way to make your trading decisions.

4 indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Gray box

What is your opinion on Gpro

5 indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:22am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Graybox says

guts

do not equal emotion.

My understanding is a major or 1st factor is growth. Do you really see them continuing to grow much?

6 Graybox   2017 Feb 9, 9:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SBUX - Summary
Buy. Rating B

Reward A-Excellent
Risk C+Fair

GrowthExcellent
EfficiencyExcellent
SolvencyExcellent
Total ReturnFair
VolatilityFair
DividendFair

7 Graybox   2017 Feb 9, 9:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

indigenous says

Gray box

What is your opinion on Gpro

Gpro Is a no-go, although price may want to fill the gap created 2/3 for a quick trade.

GPRO - Summary
Sell Rating D-

Reward E+Very Weak
Risk D Weak

GrowthWeak
EfficiencyVery Weak
SolvencyExcellent
Total ReturnVery Weak
VolatilityWeak
Dividend--

8 indigenous   2017 Feb 9, 9:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Thx

Hard to imagine Starbucks has a good growth projection.

9 Graybox   2017 Feb 9, 10:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

indigenous says

Hard to imagine Starbucks has a good growth projection.

I don't really have an opinion on SBUX growth expectation, those are not my ratings just sharing what I found.
Technically price has confirmed it is looking to test higher, I'm not a traditional investor so I'm just sharing what
I see on a technical level.

10 zzyzzx   2017 Feb 9, 11:21am   ↑ like (6)   ↑ dislike (6)     quote        

For all I know, the whole market saturation thing may be an exclusively North American thing.

For the most part Starbucks is a commodity that can be replicated and undercut by anyone willing to try, and there is a relatively low barrier to entry for competitors.

Personally, I would tend to avoid StarBucks or anything like it since basically it's just a store. That and I fucking hate coffee.

11 Graybox   2017 Feb 9, 12:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Nice job Patrick you took off some leverage and good profit, that's how you do it.

At the same time it's not at a bad area to test price actually buying into the trend (mo.). which
the line in the sand for support is just below price 3.5 points which is not to bad risk if you want
a position. That line was not breached so the trend is still intact and price is positioned basically on the line.
Below that then all bets off and they could get hit really hard. $54+/- is decent support so if price does test
54 - 52.5 test buy those areas on what ever trade confiration you use however kill the deal if price breaks
much below 52.5. SBUX is at the buying level of counter trend trading which is the environment 60% of the time
not to mention the large gap that is likely to be filled..

That would be my profile and approach anyway as more of a trade then investment.

12 jvolstad   2017 Feb 9, 1:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Rather pricey coffee and treats. Wonder how sales are going to be if the economy tanks. I typically spend around $5 a day at SB.

13 someone else   2017 Feb 9, 1:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Anyone know how I could get an email alert when SBUX goes below, say, 50?

14 BayArea   2017 Feb 9, 1:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Any company that willingly steps into political space is risking pissing off upwards of 50% of the population.

Combine that with the fact that their best growth years are now behind them, I'd proceed cautiously with this one.

15 Booger   2017 Feb 9, 3:27pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick says

Anyone know how I could get an email alert when SBUX goes below, say, 50?

I would imagine that there is a way to do this, possibly through your brokerage account. For now just add it to your watch list and put in a good till cancelled buy order at 50.

16 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   2017 Feb 9, 4:13pm   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

Really, the place is a complete shithouse customer abuse cult.

If SBuX is on its way to becoming SJW Cafe, at some point McDos will spin out IHL Cafe and hire huge hairy chicks to run cheesy coffee shops filled with flatulent cats and completely own the category.

19 FortWayne   2017 Feb 26, 11:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm a shareholder, I still see their stores packed with customers.

I don't like them getting into politics, I think it's stupid but I don't know if it'll affect them enough for people to care. Kind of like chick-filet... after a month of whining everyone just let it go and went back to eating chicken.

20 zzyzzx   2017 Feb 27, 8:55am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

https://thewashingtonpress.com/starbucks-ceo-if-you-support-traditional-marriage-we-dont-want-your-business/
Starbucks CEO: “If You Support Traditional Marriage We Don’t Want Your Business”

21 theoakman   2017 Feb 27, 9:18am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

jvolstad says

Rather pricey coffee and treats. Wonder how sales are going to be if the economy tanks. I typically spend around $5 a day at SB.

We already saw what happened to Starbucks when the economy tanked. Pretty much nothing. I know people who were still getting their daily drink there while on the brink of foreclosure.

22 Graybox   2017 Apr 24, 6:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

I could easily buy it back with no harm done, just looking for reasons.

So, Patrick did you buy back in?

23 errc   2017 Apr 24, 7:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

zzyzzx says

Best Pepe ever

24 someone else   2017 Apr 24, 8:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

So, Patrick did you buy back in?

No. Looking for something with better growth potential.

26 Graybox   2017 Apr 24, 8:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Dividend play with Low P/E

Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. (FCPT:NYSE)
Sector:
Real Estate
Price:
$23.53
Market Cap:
1.41B
 
P/E:
9.02
Dividend Yield:
4.12%

27 FortWayne   2017 Apr 24, 8:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Google and uber?

28 Graybox   2017 Apr 24, 8:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Nice low risk value stock

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN:NYSE)
Sector:
Real Estate
Price:
$4.73
Market Cap:
334.16M
 
P/E:
2.25
Dividend Yield:
7.19%

29 Graybox   2017 Apr 24, 8:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Another nice potential growth stock.

Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.TO:TSX)
Sector:
Industrials
Price:
$7.47
Market Cap:
634.40M
 
P/E:
11.21
Dividend Yield:
5.35%

30 Graybox   2017 Apr 24, 8:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Superior Plus Corp. (SPB.TO:TSX)
Sector:
Utilities
Price:
$13.07
Market Cap:
1.39B
 
P/E:
8.92
Dividend Yield:
5.51%

31 someone else   2017 Apr 24, 9:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Thanks I will look into those!

32 just any guy   2017 Apr 24, 2:16pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Their coffee sucks.

33 BayAreaObserver   2017 Apr 28, 1:53am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Such big brands cannot ruin their reputation just by a single incident

How did that work out for Union Carbide after Bhopal ? Perrier has still not recovered from their benzene screw-up in the 1990. What about BP and the Deepwater Horizon ? Want to keep going ?

Failure to have an adequate and capable Crisis Management plan and team in place can make the difference between total failure of a company (Union Carbide) and success - see Tylenol.

It takes just one really significant public incident combined with an inadequate response to sink or cripple a company for a very long time. Of course it works the same way in government etc. as well.

34 zzyzzx   2017 Aug 9, 9:33am   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/each-starbucks-now-has-almost-4-other-starbucks-within-1-mile-bmo.html
Starbucks saturation fears: Each store now has almost 4 other Starbucks within 1 mile

BMO downgraded Starbucks shares after research indicated store overlap across the United States may be harming sales.

There are now 3.6 Starbucks locations within a one-mile radius of the typical Starbucks, according to analyst Andrew Strelzik.

Beverage innovation may be driving greater switching across products among existing customers, rather than incremental sales.

Starbucks cafes are facing mounting competition from other Starbucks locations and that's going to hurt the stock, one Wall Street firm said Wednesday.

BMO Capital Markets downgraded Starbucks shares to market perform from outperform after its researched indicated that store overlap has grown to such an extreme point that they are hurting each other's sales.

"Cannibalization likely has increased," wrote BMO analyst Andrew Strelzik in the note. "Strong new store performance appears to be coming – at least in part – at the expense of existing store traffic."

Strelzik's analysis not only suggests problems in boosting sales growth, but also that the pace of U.S. development should be slowed. The research showed that annual increase in store overlap across Starbucks' U.S. footprint has accelerated by more than three times over the last few years.

BMO used two metrics to gauge the likelihood and trajectory of cannibalization: the percentage of U.S. locations that have another Starbucks store within a one-mile radius and the average number of U.S. locations within that one-mile radius.

"Seventy-five percent of Starbucks locations in California (Starbucks' largest U.S. market representing approximately 20 percent of its U.S. footprint) now have a store within a one-mile radius," Strelzik said. "There are now 3.6 Starbucks locations within a one-mile radius of the typical Starbucks in the U.S. relative to 3.3 and 3.2 stores in 2014 and 2012 respectively."

BMO research lowered its 12-month price target to $56 from $64, representing nearly 3 percent upside from Tuesday's close. Starbucks shares fell 1.6 percent Wednesday on the downgrade.

Multiple Wall Street firms recently lowered ratings on Starbucks shares in July after the company gave weaker-than-expected sales guidance and announced the closure of all its Teavana stores.

This self-inflicted competition comes as other coffee companies ramp up their own expansions.

"The competitors we analyzed have a store within one mile of 70 percent of Starbucks' units in these markets most recently, up from 66 to 67 percent in 2012 and 2014," added the analyst.

And as far as beverage innovation and the introduction of breakfast foods are concerned, BMO research isn't optimistic.

"Specialty beverage growth may be nearing saturation among existing customers as the percentage of Starbucks U.S. orders that include specialty beverages declined from year-ago levels," wrote Strelzik. "Beverage innovations may drive greater switching across products among existing customers, rather than incremental sales."

35 someone else   2017 Aug 9, 2:19pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

http://www.theonion.com/article/new-starbucks-opens-in-rest-room-of-existing-starb-560

Starbucks, the nation's largest coffee-shop chain, continued its rapid expansion Tuesday, opening its newest location in the men's room of an existing Starbucks.

"Coffee lovers just can't stand being far from their favorite Starbucks gourmet blends," said Chris Tuttle, Starbucks vice-president of franchising. "Now, people can enjoy a delicious Frappuccino or espresso just about any time they please, even while defecating."

The new men's-room-based Starbucks, the coffee giant's 1,531st U.S. location, will be open to both men and women when not "in use." In addition to offering specialty coffees from around the world, it will serve freshly baked pastries, Italian pannini sandwiches and soups, as well as the rest room's usual selection of toilet paper and soap.

36 just any guy   2017 Aug 9, 5:32pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Patrick says

"Now, people can enjoy a delicious Frappuccino or espresso just about any time they please, even while defecating."

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

37 indigenous   2017 Aug 9, 5:41pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

just any guy says

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

Is that a new trend?

38 just any guy   2017 Aug 23, 8:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

indigenous says

just any guy says

I always love sipping my favorite cup o' joe while inhaling shit particles.

Is that a new trend?

It's a new blend.

39 Booger   2017 Sep 24, 6:20pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        
http://uconservative.com/2017/08/09/boycott-success-starbucks-begs-conservatives-come-back/
BOYCOTT SUCCESS: Starbucks BEGS Conservatives to Come Back

Having decreased sales for five consecutive proves a very valid point – Conservative dollar matters. It appears that Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz’ repeated attacks on Conservatives cost him big time. The whole situation hit him where it hurts the most – in the pocketbook.

According to financial analysts, the reason behind it is Schultz’s Leftist activism.

Everything started when Starbucks decided to eliminate religion from its holiday promotions. The company stopped using “Merry Christmas” on their holiday cups.This caused for president Trump to call upon a boycott of the company during a campaign rally in November 2015.

Another reason for the company’s financial fail is Schultz’ endorsement of Hillary Clinton in September 2016.

The last straw came in January, when Schultz announced that Starbucks would preferentially hire refugees worldwide.

Starbucks lost 24% of its brand value.
40 Patrick   2017 Sep 24, 8:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
The stock is still below its peak of two years ago:

41 FortWayne   2017 Sep 24, 8:05pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
I would prefer their CEO stayed the hell out of politics. It's my only problem with sbux.

NFL is going same way, and it won't be good for them either.

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