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It's probably safe to buy gold again

By iwog following x   2017 Feb 15, 9:57am 19,003 views   157 comments   watch   quote     share  

The recent test (and failure) to confirm the $1050 low in gold and subsequent rise back over $1200 has me convinced of several things:

1. Gold isn't going to go below $1000.
2. Gold is probably in a consolidation phase which may last for a few months or a few years.
3. Gold is no longer predictable short term.
4. Gold is a buy long term.

I drew several support and resistance channels on this gold chart and the price has already broken two of them. It's commonly believed that when resistance becomes support (middle red line) it's time to back up the truck. A single data point isn't enough to confirm this but it looks promising. Also the top channel marker is admittedly half-assed and probably doesn't mean anything. If gold rebounds off of this and heads lower I might re-evaluate.

I will be accumulating gold again, primarily because world politics is beginning to look ugly and I want to stay as flexible as possible but also because it's beginning to look cheap.

#investing #politics

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118 NuttBoxer   2017 May 3, 11:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

What about 1873? How about 1893? What about the fact that bank failures were incredibly common prior to the creation of the fed?

What do all those have in common? Without even looking, I guarantee speculation and leverage. But now we have the Fed, and can do it on a scale never before seen in human history. Does a bigger, more spectacular crash appeal to you more than the state run, or mom-n-pop crashes?

iwog says

Prior to 1913 the economy was extremely chaotic and was being grossly manipulated by the rich while workers lived in poverty and squalor. You want to go back?

When you willingly fit your own shackles, that's sad. IRS will never have a problem collecting from you...

119 NuttBoxer   2017 May 3, 11:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks says

gold is 100% speculation.

What form? If you are thinking of anything but physical coins, and to a lesser extent bars, that you take physical possession of, then absolutely. But why is that, because you aren't investing in gold at that point, but paper. And now cue...

RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks says

paper is 100% speculation.

120 NuttBoxer   2017 May 3, 11:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

What about 1873?

Let's take a look...

"The Panic of 1873 and the subsequent depression had several underlying causes, of which economic historians debate the relative importance. American Post-Civil War inflation, rampant speculative investments (overwhelmingly in railroads), the demonetization of silver in Germany and the US..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

Wait a minute! HOLD EVERYTHING!! Did I read that last part right!? So right when we abandon the Silver Standard, the most important means we've EVER had of preventing speculation and leverage, we have a huge economic collapse!?

Stop squawking for a minute and try, just a little, to understand root cause.

121 NuttBoxer   2017 May 3, 12:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

How about 1893?

"One of the causes for the panic of 1893 can be traced back to Argentina. Investment was encouraged by the Argentine agent bank, Baring Brothers."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

Once again, a bank is to blame. But it sounds like repercussions from leaving the silver standard where really the cause, as confidence in the gold dollar caused much of the panic. What is the underlying theme in all these crashes? Speculation and leverage brought on by central government, and bank actions. The two actors forever bleeding the populace, while gorging themselves.

Another important oversight. How many wars did the US wage during this time of no central banks? How many since 1913? Without a central bank, you can't borrow enough to fund a war. So congratulations Iwog! You not only support our financial slavery, you also support our mass extermination!!

122 Graybox   2017 May 3, 12:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

1. Gold isn't going to go below $1000.

2. Gold is probably in a consolidation phase which may last for a few months or a few years.

3. Gold is no longer predictable short term.

4. Gold is a buy long term.

My point being iwog starts this thread with a couple basically thin reasons of opinion why gold is a buy
which are laughable, then goes on with this conclusion and recommendation.

iwog says

it's time to back up the truck.

Followed by this comment which I guess is the fundamentals of his reasoning why to back up the truck.
iwog says

I will be accumulating gold again, primarily because world politics is beginning to look ugly

I do expect more from a self proclaimed investment professional.
iwog says

I'm an investment professional.

123 Peter P   2017 May 3, 12:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Don't diss ZeroHedge.

Sometimes they point at the right thing. You just have to do the opposite.

124 iwog   2017 May 3, 12:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

Maybe you are not referring to that type of individual but more the gambling type.

Most guys who do this professionally are writing naked and covered options and are thus banking the casino. The casino always wins which is why this works, but like the casino you pocket the slow grind while occasionally paying off a jackpot. You can also lose everything while doing this unless you have deep pockets like any bank does.

You can't do this unless you have a level 4 trading account and you can't get a level 4 trading account unless you can show a long history and a lot of assets.

125 iwog   2017 May 3, 12:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

My point being iwog starts this thread with a couple basically thin reasons of opinion why gold is a buy

which are laughable, then goes on with this conclusion and recommendation.

iwog says

it's time to back up the truck.

You piled a mountain of shit into my thread, and most of it I'm not going to respond to, however I will correct this line since it's a lie. Nowhere in this thread have I advocated 'backing up the truck' to buy gold now.

126 Graybox   2017 May 3, 12:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

you piled a mountain of shit into my thread,

Just because I don't agree... You are so laughable. The premise of your thread was to encourage buying gold correct or why write anything
about it.

iwog says

Most guys who do this professionally are writing naked and covered options and are thus banking the casino.

You also have no clue about how most successful traders trade.

127 iwog   2017 May 3, 12:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

Just because I don't agree..

No, because you blatantly lied. I never said back up the truck. Do you need help with the sentence structure?

Graybox says

You also have no clue about how most successful traders trade.

Whatever you say skippy. All I know is that I always post my big trades on this board real time and I always win. Even with real estate. How do you think I do that??

128 Graybox   2017 May 3, 1:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

All I know is that I always post my big trades on this board real time and I always win.

Just like all the other so called gurus. Lets see all your losses because I know they are there.
I can read the doubt you actually had about buying gold in the opening of this post. I was just kindly
reaffirming and giving reasons in support of that doubt.

I know you hate that sense you are

iwog says

a stone cold expert in gold and silver

And yet you give no solid "look in the eye" of fundamental reasons to buy gold. Isn't fundamentals
the choice of tools to use in trade execution for investors.

129 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

iwog says

All I know is that I always post my big trades on this board real time and I always win.

Just like all the other so called gurus

See this is what I'm talking about. I don't brag about winning on trades after the fact. I don't ignore the times I lost money. I simply post a trade, like ARLP at $10, then let the market decide I'm right or wrong. I did this with gold. I did this with oil. I did this with NAC. I did this with options. Also I'm not a guru. My ENTIRE existence here is posting what I buy and sell. I don't give a fuck if anyone does the same or doesn't do the same. Just stop lying.

Graybox says

And yet you give no solid "look in the eye" of fundamental reasons to buy gold. Isn't fundamentals

the choice of tools to use in trade execution for investors.

Nope. Fundamentals in the gold and silver market take 5 years minimum to flesh out into prices. That's why I make money at this and you don't. Even Warren Buffet bought a gigantic silver hoard too early and sold it too early because he didn't understand this process. Anyway you've again missed the point here. All I do is post my trades and then a few thoughts. I'm not a guru. The only people who I have a responsibility to are the people I manage trust accounts for. Unbunch your panties because you have no legitimate criticisms here.

130 Graybox   2017 May 3, 1:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

So you don't have any solid reasons to buy gold, I didn't think so.

131 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

So you don't have any solid reasons to buy gold, I didn't think so.

Nope, none at all. I'm just really really lucky. :)

132 Graybox   2017 May 3, 1:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

I don't ignore the times I lost money.

You certainly ignore them here even when you are called out.
Enjoy the ride down with your gold predictions and purchases because that is the likely direction.
I will give you a hint until gold confirms and establishes price above 1325+/- with power gold is just a trade
and shorting gold which you are not is staying friendly with the trend buys are counter trend trades.
Lets take another look at 1200 maybe there is another short term counter trade.

.

133 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

You certainly ignore them here even when you are called out.

LOL.....example?

134 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

For the record folks, I'm the only one in this thread that does this. I'm the only one that makes predictions. I'm the only one that publishes trades.

None of the so called skeptics in this thread have the balls to do that. It should tell you something.

135 Graybox   2017 May 3, 1:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

LOL.....example?

This BS posting how gold is a buy.

136 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

iwog says

I don't ignore the times I lost money.

You certainly ignore them here even when you are called out.

Graybox says

This BS posting how gold is a buy.

How the fuck is this not a complete non-sequitur?????? You're going to claim I've lost money when gold is higher than when I posted the thread????

137 Graybox   2017 May 3, 1:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

How the fuck is this not a complete non-sequitur?????? You're going to claim I've lost money when gold is higher than when I posted the thread????

It's not by much and it won't be for long...

138 iwog   2017 May 3, 1:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

It's not by much and it won't be for long...

Ahhhh....brilliant. I'm going to lock this in as a prediction. We'll see how you do.

BTW you already fucking failed in this thread but you're not going to admit it. Where's that 1200 again eh? Forgot that did ya? LOL

139 Graybox   2017 May 3, 2:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

Where's that 1200 again eh?

Quote the rest of what I said about 1200...

140 Graybox   2017 May 3, 2:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

iwog says

1. Gold isn't going to go below $1000.


2. Gold is probably in a consolidation phase which may last for a few months or a few years.


3. Gold is no longer predictable short term.


4. Gold is a buy long term.

Absolutely, XAU can go below $1000 and if it does $920 is interesting to me. On a shorter time frame there

are fair odds of a $30-$50 pop but I would tighten up much above that. DXY is likely to test some lowet pts. taking pressure

off XAU to go higher and the other reason s&p500 is likely to go higher as well.

Markets in general consolidate 60% of the time providing trend and counter trend opportunity to position better trades in the

same direction as the trend.

Short term XAU 1260+/- to 1290+/- XAG gets a pop as well.

I think gold is a short term buy for the pop......

Heres 1 for you

141 Graybox   2017 May 3, 2:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Same day you made your call to buy gold.

142 iwog   2017 May 3, 2:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

Quote the rest of what I said about 1200...

I don't need to. You already predicted gold is going to trend lower. I guarantee you'll try to weasel your way out of that one also so here's your chance to clear the record.

See most people reading this aren't going to play the market. They want to buy a few ounces to set aside in the bank for a rainy day or they are like me and are going to accumulate for awhile.

Give them advice right now. Buy or wait? I bet you can't even muster up the balls to do this much.

143 iwog   2017 May 3, 2:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

That's what I thought and it's why I'm so disgusted by people like you.

"Resistance and support and if it goes beyond and the trend and yadda yadda fucking yadda........."
"But I want to know if I should buy some gold coins or should I wait?"
--- crickets ----

You're blocked. Stay out of my threads.

144 CBOEtrader   2017 May 3, 4:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

I've also turned $100,000 into $1.4 million in four days before losing it back again trading silver contracts.

buddy, we need have a convo about taking some profits off the table. I'll only charge $300/hour for advice :)

145 iwog   2017 May 3, 4:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

CBOEtrader says

buddy, we need have a convo about taking some profits off the table. I'll only charge $300/hour for advice :)

The crazy thing is I cashed out half of my oil contracts at $134 and the rest of them at $140 full well knowing this. I sold half my gold at the top and sold the balance shortly thereafter knowing this. I was so full of superiority super-trader mojo afterwards that when I watched my 100k turn into 1.4 million at 4am one morning, I started making plans to buy my yacht when inevitably it went to 2.5 million and maybe even 3.8 million. (I actually had these specific numbers planned out)

So over the course of the next 4 weeks I watched it slowly evaporate. Lesson re-learned.

146 CBOEtrader   2017 May 3, 4:55pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

My take from iwog's comments are because he

doesn't have the ability to trade no one does...

All consistent edge Ive seem comes from a combination of faster information, faster execution, and better understanding within an inefficient marketplace. The 3rd is the only way to daytrade as a retail guy. Those opportunities are RARE. VIX futures term-structure was a GREAT retail trade for a few years. I turned a $10k deposit into almost $300k. This was rare both in my personal expertise of the vix term structure (I was a vix market maker for years) AND in how long the opportunity lasted. Most market inefficiencies go away within a few nano-seconds. I would highly discourage anyone from trying to daytrade.

That being said, if you have a speculation based on your personal expertise, representing it via options over a medium term can be a decent strategy. If you want to gamble on direction, single-day options now expire 5 days a week in the SPX.

147 CBOEtrader   2017 May 3, 5:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

That's what I thought and it's why I'm so disgusted by people like you.

"Resistance and support and if it goes beyond and the trend and yadda yadda fucking yadda........."

"But I want to know if I should buy some gold coins or should I wait?"

This idea has a chance to work with options. Ill show you why...

148 iwog   2017 May 3, 5:06pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

CBOEtrader says

This idea has a chance to work with options. Ill show you why...

Yes I've made a decent amount of money with options but it never really clicked with my lazy style of investing. I've always done the best when I'm doing a double-take at prices, either high and low, and just take the right side and wait 2-3 years.

149 CBOEtrader   2017 May 3, 5:17pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

The first chart breaks historical options data into 30-day atm vol bins. From the historical vols, i calculated an implied one day move, then compared that implied move to the average market performance of the underlying. You can see that with vix lower than 17, vol very seriously under-performs its implied one-day move. Over 29 vol, the market tends to OVERPERFORM its implied one-day move.

Most investors understand the inverse relationship between the stock market and the vix... however in the second chart I am suggesting that the IV is a function of % drawdown from previous market high rather than absolute level of the market.

In the 3rd chart I track IV per day after a market high. Market volatility simply DOES NOT happen until after 6 weeks from the last market high.

Historically high vol environments starts around 100 days after a market high, after a greater than 15% decline from he previous high AND with an IV starting point of over 29... Thats when you buy vix calls.

Within 60 days or 8% of a market high, with IV less than 17%... this is a very strong risk/reward vol selling environment.

150 FP   2017 May 3, 10:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

CBOEtrader says

Within 60 days or 8% of a market high, with IV less than 17%... this is a very strong risk/reward vol selling environment.

Usually, yes, I agree. However, recently there were some opportunities for long volatility trades with excellent risk/reward. They don't come often and don't last long.

151 CBOEtrader   2017 May 4, 6:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

FP says

Usually, yes, I agree. However, recently there were some opportunities for long volatility trades with excellent risk/reward. They don't come often and don't last long.

Yes, within a low vol environment, i have rules for staying flat... and breakout points wherein i flip and go long vol. As you said, its rare during these times. Given how recently we've made new market highs, a legit long vol environment is most likely at least 4 months out.

152 SubOink   2017 May 17, 11:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

on a day like today, it's good to have a NAC stored away...:)

153 FP   2017 May 17, 12:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

on a day like today, it's good to have a NAC stored away...:)

On a day like today it is good to have VIX June call options. This was the third exclelllent opportunity this year for a long volatility trade.

Trump made made $ for with his election, now he is doing the same with his downfall.

154 SubOink   2017 May 17, 1:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

FP says

On a day like today it is good to have VIX June call options.

well done - I almost got September VIX calls but ended up not, now kicking myself

155 FP   2017 May 17, 2:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Sept is too far away - too much volatility risk premium (VRP) and time value.

The second month futures, around the time the front month expires, are the best play in my opinion. Vega is large enough to compensate theta (volatility increases as expiration approaches). The correlation with the VIX is also large.

Yesterday the VVIX also collapsed (to 78) so it was a double play. Very little downsside. The 12.5 strike calls got filled in at 0.90 at the close yesterday. 2.50 at the close today.

156 SubOink   2017 May 17, 4:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

yeah, I wasn't expecting a drop like today so soon

157 JZ   2017 Aug 7, 9:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Everybody is shorting vol nowadays, on all kinds of securities.
Should I take physical or should I naked-put/covered-call GLD...that is a difficult question.

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