forgot password register

reset password

register

patrick.net

 

#investing


#housing #investing #politics #random more»
764,568 comments by 11,146 registered users, 2 online now: joeyjojojunior, SpecialSnowflake

new post
« prev   investing   next »

recent stock picks

By Jimbo in SF following x   2017 Feb 17, 9:35am 7,481 views   39 comments   watch   quote     share  

Patrick,

I know most stocks are up since Trump got elected, but you made a great call on Shopify (#SHOP). It's been all up recently recently - it's up 42% since I bought $5k worth - thanks for the free $2k :)

Not such a great call on Lending Club (#LC) though ... it had a great run, but came crashing back to earth this past few days. For some reason I didn't buy here, although i did consider it ... I just couldn't see it in the numbers.

Not sure who suggested (#CCGi) and (#HEWA) (I can't find the old posts) ... but those two were dogs. Luckily, I didn't buy here either.

#investing

1 someone else   2017 Feb 17, 10:41am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

I never did buy Lending Club, just too risky. Did I ever recommend it?

The reason I knew Shopify was good was that my previous company, Bigcommerce, was competing with them, and was obviously terrified. Shopify was bigger and growing faster.

So when I left Bigcommerce, I had the choice whether to exercise my options there, potentially locking that money up forever, or to simply buy shares in Shopify. I did the right thing by putting the money into Shopify.

In fact, I'm planning to use Shopify myself to sell Patrick.net swag pretty soon. Cups, hats, things like that.

2 someone else   2017 Feb 18, 10:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Jimbo in SF says

It's been all up recently recently - it's up 42% since I bought $5k worth - thanks for the free $2k :)

Keep in mind that short term movements are hard to tell from noise. It's the long term movements (a year or more) that really count.

SHOP looks pretty damn good over the last year too though:

3 Jimbo in SF   2017 May 2, 9:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Shopify at $83 after revenue up 75%

4 someone else   2017 May 2, 9:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Yup, lovin it.

5 Jimbo in SF   2017 May 2, 9:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

So i'm up 88% on this so far ... thoughts about 'doubling down' by buying more stock?
It's bitten me in the ass before, but this growth seems very strong.

6 FP   2017 May 2, 9:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Jimbo in SF says

thoughts about 'doubling down' by buying more stock?

you can use options...

7 someone else   2017 May 2, 9:55am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

I have doubled down on stocks that fell when the reasons seemed transient, but it's hard for me to buy in again at a higher price when a stock is rising. I'd be jealous of my earlier self that got the lower price. Just a psychological block, maybe not rational.

8 BayArea   2017 May 2, 10:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

My stock picks within the past year (might be slightly longer actually):

ARLP: +20%
PICK: +24%
ONEQ: +39%
IVV: +26%

And my duds:

RING: -16%
FIT: -37%

Whatever happened to slow steady growth? Our economic volatility and debt driven way of life is serving to do a number on the middle class.

9 BayArea   2017 May 2, 10:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

By the way, I'm looking closely at FND (Floors N Decors) which IPO'd last week.

I expect this one to do well long term (assuming no market disasters).

10 Jimbo in SF   2017 May 2, 2:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

BayArea says

ARLP: +20%

PICK: +24%

ONEQ: +39%

IVV: +26%

And my duds:

RING: -16%

FIT: -37%

@BayArea ... did you invest and equal amount of $$ in each stock?
If so, I see you as up 9% overall ... is this the case?

11 someone else   2017 May 2, 2:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

BayArea says

I'm looking closely at FND (Floors N Decors) which IPO'd last week.

No numbers on Yahoo finance yet:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FND/financials?p=FND

12 BayArea   2017 May 2, 3:06pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Jimbo in SF says

BayArea says

ARLP: +20%


PICK: +24%


ONEQ: +39%


IVV: +26%

And my duds:

RING: -16%


FIT: -37%

@BayArea ... did you invest and equal amount of $$ in each stock?

If so, I see you as up 9% overall ... is this the case?

No, I was heavier in ARLP then the rest.

13 HardSock   2017 May 2, 3:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Not sure who buy's this stock when they look at 1year target and PE ratio.

SHOP: currently at 82.98

1y Target Est 74.96
PE Ratio (TTM) -197.10

14 BayArea   2017 May 2, 3:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

BayArea says

I'm looking closely at FND (Floors N Decors) which IPO'd last week.

No numbers on Yahoo finance yet:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FND/financials?p=FND

Patrick do you usually see numbers for 3 day old IPOs?

15 someone else   2017 May 2, 3:44pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

The numbers are publicly known as part of the IPO process. So why shouldn't Yahoo publish them?

HardSock says

Not sure who buy's this stock when they look at 1year target and PE ratio.

Sure, it's speculative, but look at their revenue growth:

16 HardSock   2017 May 2, 3:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Typically we should look at earnings rather than revenue to hold a stock for long term. Not sure if my thinking is correct or not.

17 someone else   2017 May 2, 4:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Of course earnings are important, but it should follow if revenue growth continues.

18 Jimbo in SF   2017 May 2, 5:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

HardSock says

Not sure who buy's this stock when they look at 1year target and PE ratio

Yea .. I look at this as a revenue play. With this kind of rev growth, profitability should come soon. By the time profitability does come and everyone jumps on the bandwagon, the stock might be even harder to justify buying.

19 Jimbo in SF   2017 May 2, 5:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

HardSock says

Typically we should look at earnings rather than revenue to hold a stock for long term. Not sure if my thinking is correct or not.

I think your thinking is correct, but I personally like a little gambling.

You see articles that say "If you'd bought Amazon on its IPO, you'd be a millionaire now" ... but Amazon was unprofitable for a long time, so a lot of people stayed away. The way I see in is to look at revenue growth and buy fast growing companies that will eventually become profitable.

20 someone else   2017 May 2, 5:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

And the thing that made Amazon profitable (cloud services) was truly not predictable when Amazon had its IPO.

21 crazydesi   2017 May 2, 6:16pm   ↑ like (4)   ↑ dislike (4)     quote        

My point was although revenue had grown a lot, earnings have not.

I still think Amazon stock is a scam, their business model is changing every quarter/year. They cannot make money by selling and delivering goods to home, they should have a alternative revenue source like AWS to generate profits.

Like wise TSLA is another scam.

22 someone else   2017 May 5, 9:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

HardSock says

Not sure who buy's this stock when they look at 1year target and PE ratio.

SHOP: currently at 82.98

1y Target Est 74.96

PE Ratio (TTM) -197.10

Hmmm, someone raised the target to 90.38:

I wonder if analysts feel pressured to raise them when the stock is skyrocketing like this.

23 HardSock   2017 May 5, 9:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

>>I wonder if analysts feel pressured to raise them when the stock is skyrocketing like this.

They raise the target price so they can sell their equity through back door.

Warren sold IBM quietly. When they buy it they tell all the news channels so people will follow him to buy, and after making money he quietly sells his stake.

24 BayArea   2017 May 5, 9:46am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

HardSock says

They raise the target price so they can sell their equity through back door.

Warren sold IBM quietly. When they buy it they tell all the news channels so people will follow him to buy, and after making money he quietly sells his stake.

Essentially you are saying the game is rigged... and you're right.

One other problem is that everything is so speculative and responses happen so quickly. If news is reaching you, the common folk, it's too late.

It's sort of like Real Estate, once a property hits the MLS, any chance of getting a deal is history.

25 Graybox   2017 May 5, 10:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

BayArea says

One other problem is that everything is so speculative and responses happen so quickly. If news is reaching you, the common folk, it's too late.

Looks like a good entry for a low risk shorting opportunity.20 30 points maybe more.
It's very over heated...

26 someone else   2017 May 5, 10:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

You probably already know this, but buying puts is better than shorting. Limits your potential losses. What if you short and the thing just keeps moving up?

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

27 TwoScoopsMcGee   2017 May 5, 10:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

You probably already know this, but buying puts is better than shorting. Limits your potential losses. What if you short and the thing just keeps moving up?

Yep! Buying puts is vastly superior to shorting for most.

28 Graybox   2017 May 5, 11:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

You probably already know this, but buying puts is better than shorting. Limits your potential losses. What if you short and the thing just keeps moving up?

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I was thinking option traders, definitely need the leverage and a cap on the risk.
If I was trading this I have confirmation and entry for a short play at a technical logical price point
and would hold until risk management took me out. I would give price a little room to go against me but it
would be very small and would just execute my short at a higher price perhaps 88 to 92.
With all that said Friday in the last 2 hours of trading is not the best of time to execute a trade and stronger
confirmation could be waited for which will mean less risk less profit.

29 Graybox   2017 May 5, 11:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

Yep! Buying puts is vastly superior to shorting for most.

I'm sure most here that trade stock up or down are options players.

30 someone else   2017 May 5, 11:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm always long. Only barely touched options during the housing bubble, making a little money off of Wells Fargo puts and then got out. I just don't understand the game well enough, and prefer to hold and forget. Most options expire worthless, they say.

But knowing how popular they are, I bought shares of CBOE a few years ago, and that has done well.

31 someone else   2017 May 5, 11:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

BayArea says

It's sort of like Real Estate, once a property hits the MLS, any chance of getting a deal is history.

True in the short term, but if you hold a stock long enough, the day to day news about it doesn't really matter much. If it's a solid growing business with a reasonable price/earnings when you buy, odds are good that it will be significantly more valuable in a few years.

32 Graybox   2017 May 5, 11:26am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

Only barely touched options

I've never executed an option and only have a small concept of how they work so really
don't know how much my trading mechanics apply but assume they do have some application.

33 Graybox   2017 May 5, 11:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

There are many technical markers and patterns that mark SHOP as a sell with about 80% odds of follow through.
On a break of the last high and confirmation meaning more than just breaching that high 104 is the next target price on the table..
It will have work through 88 to 91.5 then those odds of going up will have more meaningful weight

34 just any guy   2017 May 6, 10:58am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Patrick says

I'm always long.

I'm not so lucky

35 Graybox   2017 May 8, 8:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

If I were trading SHOP I would be short here as a test sell and would be cautious if price starts to play in the #'s
I mentioned 88 to 91.5 and flip to the upside on a close above looking at 104 as a spot to take some profit off the table
letting the rest run to what I calculate as the strongest profit target of 130+/-. Pre-Market high was 87.95

Point being don't chase price here and use good confirmation that those higher #'s have high probability.
1 catalyst to those targets might be the strength of spx500 on it's solid confirmation and stabilization above 2400.
This week is likely to be fairly calm in the US equity markets before Friday morning so even if you are not the shorting type
I think some discount prices maybe had for opportunity of buying in the 70+/- and perhaps even some in the 60+/- area.

Big money invested in SHOP would have no problem taking some profit off the table here just to re-enter as low as possible
for the long run (130+/-)

36 Graybox   2017 May 10, 6:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

A break above yesterdays high of 91.13 is a high probability of $104.
Zero confirmation of SHOP retesting lower at this time.

37 BayArea   2017 May 10, 8:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patrick says

BayArea says

It's sort of like Real Estate, once a property hits the MLS, any chance of getting a deal is history.

True in the short term, but if you hold a stock long enough, the day to day news about it doesn't really matter much. If it's a solid growing business with a reasonable price/earnings when you buy, odds are good that it will be significantly more valuable in a few years.

It's true Patrick, investing long is the only way common folks stand a chance in these games called stock market or real estate.

38 Jimbo in SF   2017 Jun 9, 8:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Shopify crossed the $100 mark.
"Buy now, or be priced out forever"
:)

39 HEY YOU   2017 Jun 9, 8:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

In fact, I'm planning to use Shopify myself to sell Patrick.net swag pretty soon. Cups, hats, things like that.

Hope you will have a line with FUCK DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS logo.
How about BOYCOTT ALL THE FUCKERS?

users   about   suggestions   source code   contact  
topics   best comments   comment jail  
10 reasons it's a terrible time to buy  
8 groups who lie about the housing market  
37 bogus arguments about housing  
get a free bumper sticker:

top   bottom   home