Bitcoin's Speculative Price Bubbles
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Bitcoin's Speculative Price Bubbles

By Graybox following x   2017 Apr 10, 6:21pm 4,614 views   29 comments   watch   quote     share  


Tone Vays gives some provoking thought and reasons as to Bitcoins place in this world and some convincing reasons
to own bitcoin as a hedge. The video is a little over an hour so if you don't have time or want to watch it's entirety minimally
jump to 32min. and consider the research done by Harvard considering the countries that would benefit most by capital
controls and a cashless society.

Tone's site
www.LibertyLifeTrail.com

#investing

1 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 4, 8:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

From another posting.
Graybox says

Bitcoin has better odds and payoff then gold and priced about

the same @ this time, however be very caution BTCUSD 1400+/-

2 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 May 7, 2:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox - you have any thoughts on this ? Ethereum, The Next Big Thing In Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency ether, which hails from the open source blockchain network Ethereum, is now valued at over $100 per token for the first time since the Ethereum platform went live in the summer of 2015. Much like the fellow cryptocurrency bitcoin, the market value of ether has surged upwards over the past few weeks. Coindesk reported ether’s value skyrocketed 900 percent so far this year.

The New York Department of Fiscal Services has already approved Ethereum trading and ether tokens are officially a regulated currency. Ethereum has also attracted investment from major corporations like Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase, two of the 30 companies that now make up the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance. Yet the new blockchain technology is still largely shrouded in mystery.

More: http://www.ibtimes.com/3-things-you-need-know-about-ethereum-next-big-thing-cryptocurrency-2535361

I'm not an investor in Bitcoin or any of the Cryptocurrency but have several friends that are in pretty deep.

3 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 7, 8:25am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

BayAreaObserver says

Ethereum, The Next Big Thing In Cryptocurrency

I don't hold any bitcoin myself at this time. My involvement concerning bitcoin started about 4yrs ago as
a TA for a couple of minors and have just for the most part continue to profile the nature of it's price.
When it comes to Ethereum the situation I see at hand is the quality of decentralization of Bitcoin and the
powers behind Ethereum foundation and centralization of that vehicle which big money involvement is not
surprising

I think the 2 in some ways are like comparing apples to oranges due to the different focus of the end game
for both. Centralization-Decentralization.

BayAreaObserver says

I'm not an investor in Bitcoin or any of the Cryptocurrency but have several friends that are in pretty deep.

Predominately the ones I know who are deepest are the programmers and mathematicians. I know a commercial pilot who
is a programmer that claims he has no 401 or other investments then Bitcoin. Since managing risk is #1 on my list and all other
decisions say refer to #1 this doesn't seem smart but to each his own. I opened a small brick and mortar and will start taking pmts
in bitcoin so I will be buying some myself. The main reason I haven't bought any is trading is very difficult due initial brokerages were
very inefficient but are slowly getting up to par. The other issue for me is the most leverage offered I have found is 3.3x which when a person
is accustom of trading at levels between 33/1 and 100/1 and have traded at levels of 500/1, 3.3/1 is under my threshold of interest
Also the difference between ask/bid are off the chart between brokers. Coindesk 1527.68 and BTC-Echange 1477.58

Both BTCUSD and ETHUSD are over heated in speculation and hitting critical mass and are very likely going to retreat very soon I believe.
Bitcoin already hit the mark I was looking for and I believe the same is true for Ethereum.

4 HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2017 May 7, 9:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The value of shitcoin is based on fiat currency.
I'm holding a piece of paper with a ONE printed on it.
What's it worth? Another piece of paper with a ONE printed on it.

5 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 7, 9:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

HEY YOU says

The value of shitcoin is based on fiat currency.

I'm holding a piece of paper with a ONE printed on it.

What's it worth? Another piece of paper with a ONE printed on it.

What ever you can sell it for?

Actually Bitcoins value is based on proof of works and much more, however you are welcome to assign any value you would like

or none at all.

6 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 7, 1:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

I think the 2 in some ways are like comparing apples to oranges due to the different focus of the end game

for both. Centralization-Decentralization.

Bitcoin not being centralized trades 24/7. Do you know of any other trade-able market or exchange that does.
Likely not, due to centralization. Ethereum may end up being the only market that is centralized trading 24/7.
OTC spot markets are closed Friday basically the same time as the NY exchange and opens 6 EST on Sunday
and Bitcoin keeps on rolling.

7 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 7:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

Both BTCUSD and ETHUSD are over heated in speculation and hitting critical mass and are very likely going to retreat very soon I believe.

Bitcoin already hit the mark I was looking for and I believe the same is true for Ethereum.

Kaboom Kaboom Kaboom 100%+ since I started this thread.( Hows that gold play working out?)

No sell confirmations at calculated logical points of interest but rather a bit of stall as Bitcoin confirms trend continuation and keeps rising.
Next point of interest for me to watch for a retest is BTC-exchange 2775+/- on a successful breach and confirmation my next target is 3000+/-

8 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 7:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

BayAreaObserver says

I'm not an investor in Bitcoin or any of the Cryptocurrency but have several friends that are in pretty deep.

Very nice trade/investment for your friends. My caution is there is a large amount of speculation $ vrs. investment $ and the
retest will reveal that price discovery of where spec and invest meet.

9 someone else   ignore (0)   2017 May 25, 7:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm truly amazed that bitcoin is not yet illegal to own. It gives great freedom to individuals and takes power away from central governments.

It's certainly a threat to the dollar, along with all other currencies, and wars have been started over smaller threats to the dollar, such as Iraq's pricing oil in Euros.

So why isn't bitcoin illegal yet?

10 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 7:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

So why isn't bitcoin illegal yet?

It's not centralized so banning would be nearly impossible not to mention I'm sure if they did try banning it
would have the unintended consequence of being the must have.

11 HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2017 May 25, 9:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox says

proof of works

Yeah,my cash in not accepted anywhere,immediately.

12 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

HEY YOU says

Yeah,my cash in not accepted anywhere,immediately.

So do you have a point or are you just splashing the feces that is bouncing between your ears?
If you have a valid point of contribution fine, if not go to your own post and splash all the crap you
want.

13 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 11:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graybox - funny you commented today on this, was talking earlier today with the person in question since they were working the night shift. Being a boring person I suggested it may be prudent to take some of the profits off the table at this point but that's just me.

The impression I was left with after talking was similar to those involved in the dot.com run-up and the houses never go down in value routine. For the most part he is very cautious so hopefully he can move faster than an algorithm or something occurring when he's asleep.

Also I ran across this earlier today, not sure if you have seen it. Bitcoin going mainstream as Japanese business signs on

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Bitcoin-going-mainstream-as-Japanese-business-signs-on

14 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 12:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Greed will take you out every time..... Very good advice taking some profit the problem being the retail investor many times does the opposite
and adds leverage while chasing price instead of managing the unrealized gain they already hold. Bitcoin dumped 500 pts today and has confirmed odds of
a extended sell off may take place. Price has recovered some and I expect 2600 to be tested and if it fails that will be the 2nd confirmation of a hard sell-off
is likely on it's way for bitcoin.

Bitcoin has a long way before it goes mainstream however it has gained some traction. Most companies are more invested in manipulating the blockchain
infrastructure for other purposes such as voting systems among many other projects.

15 KimJongUn   ignore (0)   2017 May 25, 12:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

BayAreaObserver says

Graybox - you have any thoughts on this ? Ethereum, The Next Big Thing In Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency ether, which hails from the open source blockchain network Ethereum, is now valued at over $100 per token for the first time since the Ethereum platform went live in the summer of 2015. Much like the fellow cryptocurrency bitcoin, the market value of ether has surged upwards over the past few weeks. Coindesk reported ether’s value skyrocketed 900 percent so far this year.

The New York Department of Fiscal Services has already approved Ethereum trading and ether tokens are officially a regulated currency. Ethereum has also attracted investment from major corporations like Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase, two of the 30 companies that now make up the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance. Yet the new blockchain technology is still largely shrouded in mystery.

How come the article doesn't mention $50M stolen from Etherium about a year ago via exploit? Wasn't deemed important enough to make it into "three things you need to know about", I guess....

16 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 4:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

StrawMan - wish I had an answer for you, I came across the article looking for something on blockchain, never heard of the stuff before.

Graybox - you are familiar with this ETF, "GBTC" ? There are a lot of news items related to Bitcoin on the page from Barrons.

http://www.barrons.com/quote/stock/us/ootc/gbtc

I was first looking at this article from Barrons Bitcoin Investment Trust Surges 41%…Why?

http://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-investment-trust-surges-41-why-1495657253

Also seems there was a drop and recovery today as well. http://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-price-spikes-2700-then-loses-400-hours-cndaq/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4076387-bitcoin-getting-dangerous

For me - just an observer and trying to learn. Way to risky at my age and little to no chance of recovery if I mess up.

17 KimJongUn   ignore (0)   2017 May 25, 4:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

BayAreaObserver says

StrawMan - wish I had an answer for you, I came across the article looking for something on blockchain, never heard of the stuff before.

I googled little more: apparently, there has been several other successful attacks on Ethereum since the first one in June 2016 which prompted them to execute number of "hard forks". Fuck that shit.

As for Bitcoin: they lost even more - $460M - in notorious Mt. Gox Exchange hack. Still want to put serious money in that shit? What recourse will you have if it's stolen?

18 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 4:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Straw Man - I have no investment in the stuff - I am merely an observer. Several people I used to work with are deep into it and all I can do is offer words of caution, can't save someone from themselves.

19 TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 6:21pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says

So why isn't bitcoin illegal yet?

Too useful for intel agencies and their criminal Laundering fronts

20 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 25, 8:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Straw Man says

I googled little more: apparently, there has been several other successful attacks on Ethereum since the first one in June 2016 which prompted them to execute number of "hard forks". Fuck that shit.

As for Bitcoin: they lost even more - $460M - in notorious Mt. Gox Exchange hack. Still want to put serious money in that shit? What recourse will you have if it's stolen?

The thing about bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and etc they are very different then any of the old school markets. They are a long way from being integrated as a daily
driver as it were. It's only been in the last year or so that cryptocurrency has been added to platforms such as Metatrader and predominately with brokers overseas.
Much of the price movement is absolutely speculative due to the ease of trading compared to the prior existing web based brokerages that have been around so I
contribute much of the recent move to traders not investors although their money counts of coarse. The problem being for investors is that they are at a tremendous
disadvantage being they generally don't have much experience or practical knowledge in real world market theory and the fundamentals as some have brought out
are very sketchy making cryptocurrency difficult for most to invest in.

Based on the trading habits of several 1000 traders I have studied through different competitions I have participated the plain truth is most will have a hard time capturing
a penny of realized gains due to lack of experience possessing zero skill set. I would give odds there is significant over leverage that has taken BTCUSD to 2736 as
emotional based investors and marginal traders kept adding to their positions and those same emotions will keep them holding on to the "whore of hope" as price goes
against them. I would say today's price action has immobilized most of the retail investors participating and that price is in the traders hands with the motive of taking every
penny they can out of this market. The 2 prices I am interested in is a test of 2600+/- and how price approaches that area if in fact it even reaches that far up and on the
down side short term 1700. My approach is when I see the next high probability of 100% gains of blue sky I will trade enough that I can take 1/2 my position off and own
house shares which I will be targeting the same for litecoin and ethereum. My entries will be targeted and executed with solid confirmation of price the odds are in my favor
and likely at a much lower price of between 400-600 the strongest logical area that my system point to and a real possibility. On the other hand for those holding if price can confirm above the last high 3300 is my area of interest.

At the right price and plan cryptocurrency is a great investment or hedge.

.

21 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 26, 1:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

So many reasons and odds of a phenomenal crash is about to smash bitcoin and many of the other cryptocurrency.
Merchants that except bitcoin generally do a pass through right in to cash however since the value has been on a steady
and historical move up as in the speed I imagine many of these merchants have been holding back to profit on the rise
for their products sold.

Many will hold because of the emotional triggers of greed and confusion simply having no idea of how markets work in general not to mention
the unique characteristics of risk concerning bitcoin. One of the main problems they will face is execution speed which is pathetically slow and as
the orders stack up they will have no idea of the closing price until it processes. The other problem with not being able to make the decision to bail
is this market does not sleep due to decentralization so whats going to happen to their bitcoin over the weekend while they are trying to enjoy the
holidays here in the US.

As a trader I have the ability to fund an acct. with bitcoin or USD as do traders in other countries using their own national currency then short BTCUSD
with 3.3x leverage and if the trade works out I can settle my trades in bitcoin if I choose. The main point being I can open and close instantaneously so
I know with in a few pips .0001 of slippage of what that price will be. So in essence I can trade Bitcoin like any other currency which shorting is as important
as going long which I have ample experience in doing both.

Although I do believe in the long run Bitcoin will have it's place in the financial world as a staple of some sort the supporting technology has a long way
to go.

22 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 May 28, 9:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I am of the thought Bitcoin is going to be taking a center roll in the financial news this coming week and likely beyond.

Most have no clue what they are in for and never really take to heart how any money put in the market is risk capital, all of it
and more in some cases. Merchants better be very careful if not suspend the use of bitcoin until this plays out.
At present it takes about 16hrs to confirm bitcoin meaning it has to be tested by the minors as to it's validity before it can be added
to the ledger which is a big hole for theft if the product is exchanged at the time of sale.
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time

The real white elephant in the room is where are the buyers going to come from the other side of the sell trade. Although I have not tested
for the sweet spots concerning BTC I am assuming that they will mimic the currency market Tokyo, London and USA market open times
+ 4hrs. Unlike the reg. currency market which trades 24/5 basically BTC is 24/7 so I'm not sure about the application of sweet spot times however
more people will be awake to trade in those same time frames so I expect it will be similar.

I am running a 10,000 demo acct. using metatrader4 @3/1 leverage selling BTC, ETH, and LTC. I am basically front running the market based
on chart patterns and a couple of indicators only without using price confirmations for execution. At present this is counter trend trading and depending
on my time I may flip the trades outright or hedge leaving my sell trades in place and taking some long positions depending on price confirmation that
being proof odds are on my side. The way I am approaching this is I sold down to the very top of allowable margin so in order to take more trades either
way I need profit. I am not going to close or add anymore trades until I do see at least some confirmation at anticipated logical points of price reaction.
Right now the volume is slow but steady being London is asleep and USA is partying so price is more subject to manipulation by brokers due to lack of traders.

1 of the real differences between the FX and BTC market is the BTC market is running over the edges with people who likely haven't self managed
their own investments or made many trades in their whole lives if any at all and the true reality is only 5% of all the participants have a chance of taking
any profit at all and considering this market it maybe less then that in the end. The whore of hope will blind a person every time.

http://bitcointicker.co/

My trades
Commissions -146.88
10 btcusd @ 2087.708
20 ethusd @ 163.4141
225 ltcusd @ 23.24

23 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 10, 5:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Here Are Two Initial Coin Offerings You Need To Watch This Summer Initial coin offerings, where startups fundraise with cryptocurrency, went from a niche trend to a widespread tech industry movement in just a few short months. It’s now common for bitcoin experts, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs to joke about ICO cliches the way hipsters complain about bands going mainstream. Despite all the hype, it’s too soon to say which tokens will turn out to be a lucrative investment. However, there are a few ICOs set to launch this summer that will definitely change the game ideologically, regardless of their fiscal impact.

The upcoming ICO by the popular messaging app Kik is one such project, because it will be the first social media company to make a cryptocurrency for public consumption. Another subversive ICO is to be launched by none other than bitcoin’s first self-made teenage millionaire, Erik Finman. Finman told International Business Times he recently sold his first startup, Botangle, to focus on founding a new augmented reality company based in Los Angeles. The AR project, temporarily called Finman AR, will launch a summer ICO to transform the cryptocurrency market completely.

In theory, anyone can become an investor by participating in a public ICO even if the buyer can afford just one Ethereum-based token worth a few hundred dollars. But so far, cryptocurrency insiders dominate ICOs. Startup tokens are usually sold in bitcoin or ether. So buyers need to be familiar with cryptocurrency and have their trigger fingers ready for the second these offerings go public. Some ICOs literally sell out in a matter of seconds.

“Right now, you [have] got to know the right people, be in the boys’ club,” Finman explained. “It’s something we will address in our ICO, not to be like the backroom deal stuff. That’s how some [ICOs] get out in 30 seconds. We want an easy process for average people. So people who want to try it for the first time can get involved.”

More: http://www.ibtimes.com/here-are-two-initial-coin-offerings-you-need-watch-summer-2549080

24 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 13, 6:42am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

GOLDMAN SACHS: Bitcoin is looking 'heavy Bitcoin has had a blistering start to 2017. It's up about 180% so far this year. However, its near-term outlook isn't looking so hot, according to a note released on Monday by Goldman Sachs head of technical strategy Sheba Jafari.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-goldman-sachs-2017-6

Bancor ICO Explodes, Cryptocurrency Networks Under Attack Several blockchain networks experienced cyberattacks and outages in the past week, including the Russian cryptocurrency exchange BTC-E, as cryptocurrency prices skyrocketed. CNBC reported Ethereum's ether tokens traded for around $400 each on Monday, up 5,000 percent since January.

The blockchain startup Bancor said in a statement Monday widespread outages were caused by “overwhelming demand and traffic, and massive malicious attacks.” However, the details of Bancor's initial coin offering glitches are unclear. A reddit user argued avoidable technical issues, not hackers, could be the driving force behind network failures.

Either way, the hitches with Bancor’s ICO may have a silver lining. Because of it, they extended the window for investors to buy ICO tokens. Coindesk reported the Bancor ICO set a record by raising $153 million in ether from around 10,885 buyers. Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper participated in the ICO and joined the Bancor advisory board, the startup’s blog said.

http://www.ibtimes.com/bancor-ico-explodes-cryptocurrency-networks-under-attack-2551143

25 SFace   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 26, 11:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Someone asked me about bit coin.

My response. The creator of bitcoin will run off with all the money and you don't want to be one holding it. It's just a matter of time.

If you can't use bitcoin to buy a house or deposit into any bank for cash, it's not investible.

26 Graybox   ignore (1)   2017 Jul 1, 8:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SFace says

If you can't use bitcoin to buy a house or deposit into any bank for cash, it's not investible.

It might be a good idea to do some research SF so you at least have a clue..

27 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Jul 5, 1:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

AlphaBay Offline: Dark Web Market May Have Disappeared In Bitcoin-Stealing Exit Scheme

AlphaBay Market, one of the largest exchanges for illegal goods on the dark web, has been offline since Tuesday night with no explanation from the site’s moderation team, sparking speculation from users that the site—and their money—may be gone for good.

Users have begun to point to a number of withdrawals from bitcoin wallets associated with the AlphaBay Market, leading some to believe the site has vanished as part of an exit scheme designed to swindle users for their money.

The fact the AlphaBay Market went offline is not unusual; the site regularly goes down for the purposes of maintenance. Those periods are sometimes—but not always—accompanied with an explanation from the site’s staff.

The longer users have been left in the dark, though, the more suspicious they have become. Thus far, the site’s users have tracked transactions totalling more than 1,479 Bitcoin (about $3.8 million) that have been sent to smaller accounts without explanation, leading to speculation that the site operators are stealing funds.

Adding fuel to the fire for users afraid the marketplace may be gone forever are reports (link below) that a prominent AlphaBay seller willingly handed his account over to law enforcement in the U.S. after being arrested last month by Homeland Security agents.

More: http://www.ibtimes.com/alphabay-offline-dark-web-market-may-have-disappeared-bitcoin-stealing-exit-scheme-2561562

Related: https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/07/02/millionaire-alphabay-vendor-willingly-gave-account-feds/

28 just any guy   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 9, 12:41pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I firmly believe that cryptocurrency is the future. It is ridiculously disruptive because of its independence, resilience, potential anonymity, and versatility. Central banks have to be shitting their pants. It makes me wonder if the Fed is sopping up liquidity as quickly as reasonably possible because so much idle cash is going into crypto and leaving the realm of their control.

Regarding theft or loss, one has so many ways to protect against that. Simply store in a sophisticated offline hard wallet or cold storage. There are ways to even hide your large account reserves in your wallets so that no one knows they exist. If done properly, there is no better monetary medium for protecting against loss.

29 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Jul 19, 2:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Ethereum Co-Founder Says Crypto Coin Market Is a Time-Bomb.

“People say ICOs are great for ethereum because, look at the price, but it’s a ticking time-bomb,” Charles Hoskinson, who helped develop ethereum, said in an interview. “There’s an over-tokenization of things as companies are issuing tokens when the same tasks can be achieved with existing blockchains. People are blinded by fast and easy money.”

Firms have raised $1.3 billion this year in digital coin sales, surpassing venture capital funding of blockchain companies and up more than six-fold from the total raised last year, according to Autonomous Research. Ether, the digital currency linked to the ethereum blockchain, surged from around $8 after its ICO at the start of the year to just under $400 last month. It’s since dropped by about 50 percent.

Hoskinson, who runs technology research firm IOHK, is part of a growing chorus of blockchain watchers voicing concern about the rapid surge in cryptocurrency prices and digital coin crowdsales that have collected millions of dollars in minutes. Regulation is the biggest risk to the sector, as it’s likely that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which has remained on the sidelines, will step in to say that digital coins are securities, he said.

Full Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/ethereum-co-founder-says-crypto-coin-market-is-ticking-time-bomb


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