patrick.net

Demographics is the mother of economics, the rest is stamp collecting

Ahh Adorable... charming as always :-)

Hey want happen Iron boy?

Logan Mohtashami says

USA USA USA

Hello Logan, glad to see you alive and kicking.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Hilarious. This is the guy who pays to speak at cheesy 'investor' conferences and get closer to rubes he can fleece to pay off his trailer, right? Once he discharges the note on the double wide, he will have enough money to buy a table at an 'awards' dinner and receive his 'man of the year' award.

He's taking selfies, bro. Why don't you just relax

Nice graphs @ #6 Logan.

Really shows the baby boom wavefront that hit the economy in the late 60s.

That's an annual cohort growing by 1 million people -- 33% -- over the previous baseline of 3m births per yr.

Combined with women's lib it was really something.

As for the undereducuated,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GCT1502US

shows the adult population with a bachelor's degree or better is 29% now, and maybe 1/4 [total SWAG] of those were actual vocational-worthy degrees.

Logan Mohtashami says

Lets say the economic cycle runs another 10 years and leverage picks up again, I doubt we will see the same down fall as the last :-)

2027 the baby boom will be aged 63 - 81, all eligible for SSA checks, and the great majority on Medicare.

This is stimulative; they will have left gaps in the workforce for Gens X & Y to fill, and also still be creating consumer demand -- in the leisure and health care sector.

2026 is going to be the USA's 250th birthday, I expect a bigger party than the Bicentennial, which was pretty great.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Hilarious. This is the guy who pays to speak at cheesy 'investor' conferences and get closer to rubes he can fleece to pay off his trailer, right?

Says the old man who hides behind a fake name and someone's photo who is about to commit suicide

You old Trolls are nothing but a Bane in society ... or as we call it Boomer trolls ... old relic of the old days

using modern day technology where you used to piss on yourself on old porn sites

Get over yourself old man.....

Bellingham Bill says

2027 the baby boom will be aged 63 - 81, all eligible for SSA checks, and the great majority on Medicare.

We got replacement workers, other countries don't ...we will be fine

Strategist says

Hello Logan, glad to see you alive and kicking.

Just a quick hello, I trust the family is well

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

X and Ys will be shooting geezers and taking gray scalps to bars for discounts on pitchers of PBR.

You will never be C2

Bellingham Bill says

shows the adult population with a bachelor's degree or better is 29% now, and maybe 1/4 [total SWAG] of those were actual vocational-worthy degrees.

Speaking of which my friend ( Today) just got a PHD honoree degree for science at Chapman University and I saw smart young men and women ready to kick ass and chew bubble at the same time

https://patrick.net/1288496/2016-01-18-time-stamp-your-2016-recession-call-now?c=1339790#comment-1339790

Look at comment 1913 as a blast from the past

just any guy says

2016 Recession Call now

What was so easy into baiting people into that thread... they truly believed that lower gas prices was going to lead to the 2nd great recession

Then PMI data reversed course

We may never see a group of people that were more useless than the PMI recession bears of 2015 and 2016 ....

Just an awful unintelligent marco thesis

Then Peter is trying to convince me that he is better than Harry today ...

You bears need better hero's and need to get younger, demographic of cranky old men looks like Japan population which 40% is going to die off in 50 years

Logan Mohtashami says

What was so easy into baiting people into that thread

I was actually posting that link just to bring back the memory of comment 1913 in that thread. What's eerie is that is the year the Fed was created. Creepy.

Gentlemen, pleasure to say hi as always.

Have a wonderful Sunday evening a wonderful rest of 2017

Good luck to you all....

Oh you remember that MASI stock I told you guys about ;-)

Take care everyone!

Logan Mohtashami says

How the liberals love the late 1970's when 14% of the population was making federal min wage and stagflation was here and now it's 2.7% of the population

I'm a liberal and I don't like the 1970s. I like the 1990s when wages were high and you could buy three times the house for the same money adjusted for inflation than you can today. Can we bring back the 90s?

Dan8267 says

Logan Mohtashami says

How the liberals love the late 1970's when 14% of the population was making federal min wage and stagflation was here and now it's 2.7% of the population

I'm a liberal and I don't like the 1970s. I like the 1990s when wages were high and you could buy three times the house for the same money adjusted for inflation than you can today. Can we bring back the 90s?

The 90's when Bill Clinton was President were clearly the best times for the economy. We had such a big budget surplus, which would have eliminated the national debt if it had continued. All the statistics, including crime and welfare showed a tremendous improvement.
Sadly, things turned around for the worse after 911. I blame 911 for the turnaround, because it led to unprecedented amounts spent on war, security, and turning the economy around.

That's what I call a shit eating grin. Let's factor in the national debt to this catalog of economic success!

Not really trying to win an argument here, just making an observation. The way you express yourself makes it difficult for me to imagine you having much concern for less fortunate, less capable, working class people. The Democratic Party values, are supposedly based on a philosophy of caring for others and a spirit of community. I'm just not picking that up in your personality from what you post on this forum .

You have a condescending, bullying manner, which I don't think I need to provide examples for. This type of person generally doesn't care about anything but domination , and winning. You seem to be emotionally attached to defending the Democratic philosophy, but it doesn't suit you personally. I just think you would feel more integrated as a Republican, once you learn to accept how you really feel, and get over the embarrassment. That's all.

Well, The SJW and feminist philosophy is central to the modern democratic party platform. You can't be much of a Democrat if you disagree with these fundamental premises. And why are you so concerned if republican economic policy is going to divert capital to the top 1%. This is the section of society which you aspire to.

PaisleyPattern says

And why are you so concerned if republican economic policy is going to divert capital to the top 1%. This is the section of society which you aspire to.

Republican policies increase wealth inequality and eventually will lead to over investment in the economy. This, historically, has lead to depressions, which if not dealt with properly (FDR) can cause social unrest and even revolutions. Not good even for 1%-rs.

Logan Mohtashami says

Just wanted to remind everyone

166,000,000 plus people working

5,740,000 job openings

79 months of job expansion

4 decade lows in unemployment claims

2 years from now the longest economic expansion on record

Don't care to chat

You've never cared to chat, only to chart.
At the top, everything always looks rosy, but an economy built on nothing, will always follow it's tops with longer, and darker bottoms.
I see you're still relying on ONE source for all your truth, no conflict-of-interest there...
And lastly, what does all this economic propaganda look like when compared to something not so easily manipulated as Logan's stats?

NuttBoxer says

Logan Mohtashami says

Just wanted to remind everyone

166,000,000 plus people working

5,740,000 job openings

79 months of job expansion

4 decade lows in unemployment claims

2 years from now the longest economic expansion on record

Don't care to chat

You've never cared to chat, only to chart.

He he he. That's funny.
Don't forget, a picture is worth a thousand words.

To combat the problem of popular revolt our overlords have developed several strategies.
1)buy up all available property and drive rents through the roof while taxing the shit out of the workforce. This results in fewer babies born, keeping population in check while letting the owner class increase their wealth and power.
2) push automation to its endpoint as fast as possible! This means robot soldiers, or robot dogs with mounted machine guns or robot planes that can deliver a payload on rowdy deplorables with the push of a button. This concentrates power tremendously, handing full control of a robot army to the oligarchy. Ordinary soldiers who can rebel or fail to carry out despicable orders will be obsolete.
3) ensure steady supply of deadly drugs to the populace, so the people without hope will kill themselves off. Last year that happened to 50,000 Americans. Why do you think we are still in Afghanistan? It ain't because we love messing with the Taliban or give two shits about the backwards tribals in that country! We are protecting poppy fields and opium production! The resulting heroin makes it way by the metric ton to the USA to be consumed by our youth, killing many and destroying the lives of others.
4)stir the shit constantly to turn ordinary people against each other instead of the oligarchs. Lately politics has been the epicenter of this movement, dividing people into Leftists and conservatives and constantly pushing the two further apart. The media is the tool used for this. Ever wonder why it is ALL owned by the oligarchy?
5)anyone have more pieces of the puzzle to share?

NuttBoxer says

You've never cared to chat, only to chart.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

Logan, the central banks of the world have inflated the mother of all bubbles. The Dow is not doing well when adjusted for inflation. Increasing stock and real estate prices are largely the result of central bank zero and low interest-rate policies. Cheap money policies have flooded the world's economies with currency which has been funelled to various assets, such as real estate and equities.The Bank of Japan, which has been at this the longest, is in the process of buying up the entire private sector in its attempts to prevent the inevitable deflation of its countries asset. The US Fed must maintain low interest rates ofherwise the federal government won't be able to pay the interest on the national debt, and all the various Ponzi structured state and municipal pension funds will collapse. Inflated stock and real estate prices are keeping the economies going but sooner or later the music must stop. An honest assessment of the real estate market would have to conclude that price increases are largely the result of devaluation of currency. Real wages have not been increasing, which is necessary to justify increasing asset prices. Your perspective and analysis of the economy is clearly biased by the fact that you work in the real estate industry and your livelihood is dependent on the continued inflation of the real estate bubble. People are buying real estate for speculative purposes. The current valuations are premised on real estate continuing to increase in value. This expectation justifies the high prices, leveraged purchasing , and the large fraction of individual disposable income which is being used to make the loan payments. Our economy is living off of a collection of speculative bubbles. You are enabling and encouraging this behavior. It must be exciting, but don't fool your self and others that you are a participant in a healthy and sustainable economy.

Logan Mohtashami says

Logan, the central banks of the world have inflated the mother of all bubbles.

64% of $SPX companies beat sales estimates for Q1, above the 5-year average

PaisleyPattern says

The US Fed must maintain low interest rates

Core inflation CPI hasn't printing one time over 3% year over year

tsk tsk

PaisleyPattern says

Your perspective and analysis of the economy is clearly biased

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

We have the longest job expansion on record and in 2 years we will have the longest economic expansion on record witch if both stay constant

E -----

Only time this has happened ever in U.S. history

PaisleyPattern says

It must be exciting, but don't fool your self and others that you are a participant in a healthy and sustainable economy.

I have always stayed consistant on this view, high school drop outs with substance abuse need help ( federal intervention) the rest will be ok

Thankfully the rise of women and educated women makes up for the lack of men in certain groups to contribute to the economy

Hence the 5,740,000 job openings with over 166,000,000 people working

Any other cute theories?

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

difference between you and I, always

Ayeeeeee!! Lying Logan is BACK with his inane chart diarrhea. He promised to quit posting on Patnet, but no. For the people that may not know Logan already, or have not understood what Logan is trying to do, let me summarize what Logan's agenda is:

1. post lots of inane charts that are dishonest, irrelevant or misleading
2. convince you that everything is hunky dory with jobs, incomes and asset (esp. house) prices. No price is too high! Buy now!
3. convince you that you should take up a loan you cannot afford, preferably from Logan's mortgage loan company
4. PROFIT (for Logan, not for you)

QE has stopped but the low interest rates have persisted. Corporate sales are being fueled by this cheap money. Longest jobs expansion, but also longest coordinated and unprecedented central bank low interest policy. CPI is distorted. Just look at real estate, insurance, college, anything that can be financed has inflated. This inflation is enabled by the low interest rates. Things that must be purchased with unfinanced unleveraged dollars, are not inflating.

justme says

Lying Logan is BACK

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

Ahh a theme is going on here ...

Don't worry this is my only thread for the year, only so much Anti American non sense even I can take ;-)

Hope all is well

The rise of women in the workforce is due to the increasing cost of living, it now takes two incomes to support a household. There is no need to make up the work force, The value of labor is currently cheat in the United States as there is an excess of labor. This is why long term wages are declining. Low interest rates and bubble economics are an attempt to mask the effects of this on the population.

PaisleyPattern says

The rise of women in the workforce is due to the increasing cost of living,

What I see in the group of men here is a constant paranoid thesis

Makes sense since one provides data and the others just talk ( admirable) but not effective

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

However, high marks for the adorable paranoid old men group...

You guys all of you are just awesome with that... I can never beat you guys on that aspect!