« prev   random   next »

1
0

Predictions on Housing....

By joshuatrio following x   2017 Jun 8, 4:44am 4,166 views   39 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


What are your predictions on housing? Seems like we're in bubble territory again. Home around here are selling in 1-2 days if they are in good condition and priced in line with other comp's. Inventory is still on the low side and this seems like this needs to end at some point... I bought my house 9 months ago and could make about $50k more on it if it were sold now (based on comp's/recent sales in area). That seems excessive.

Also, my neighbors (in their 70's) have 3 generations of children living with them. Children, grandchildren and great grand children. The children all complaining that they want to buy, but have to look way out in the sticks because of prices, and that everything is becoming unaffordable again.

Anyhow, what are your predictions?

Another crash? Flatlining? Increase/decrease in price? Timelines?

1   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 5:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I'm selling my place in Decatur which is a townhouse inside the perimeter for 325k and that is a significant appreciation over where I bought in 2013.

If someone wants something comparable in a 2 mile radius, they will be paying over 500k inside the perimeter.

It seems like lot of 'growth' in Atlanta is from people who want to move from OTP to ITP because they don't want long commutes

2   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 5:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joshuatrio says

The children all complaining that they want to buy, but have to look way out in the sticks because of prices, and that everything is becoming unaffordable again.

That's what I was saying before about Atlanta...value to be had, but pretty much only OTP(outside I-285)

3   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 5:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anonymous says

is the number of price drops that are occurring after the listings have sat for a few weeks. Like you area if the price is remotely reasonable and the property in decent condition, they sell in days

The 6 places that were for sale in my complex earlier this year around Jan/Feb took about 2-3 months to sell, but much of that was due to weather and off-peak season.

I had a full asking price offer on my place in under 24 hrs only for buyers to back out on the 10th and last day of due diligence because "the gates are open 'all day'". The gates open 2 hrs in morning and evening and 10 hrs on sat and Sunday....this helps to keep the HOA fees low

4   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 6:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anonymous says

eeks. Like you area if the price is remotely reasonable and the property in decent condition, they sell in days. Those pushing the envelope on price are not so lucky

Any place in Atlanta that is in good condition or renovated in a gentrifying neighborhood is getting asking or above

5   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 6:02am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anonymous says

longer I am here and the more people I talk to, hour commutes are not uncommon and "supposedly" I live in a well to do neighborhood by local historical standards.

Fishers, IN? Seems to be getting built up a lot and increasingly far from downtown Indianapolis

6   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2017 Jun 8, 11:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Definitely headed toward a crash, but housing is the cause as much as cars, bonds, stocks, etc. Real cause is the same that was active in '08, and has never gone away. Printing money backed by nothing.

We had a place listed two doors down from us in the $560-$600+ range. House was certainly nicely renovated, but the area, while a good neighborhood, is not the most upscale in Chula Vista. Sold within about 2 months of being listed. History we found out from neighbor, it used to be a crack house of sorts. The lady who owned it was a drug addict, and would let other drug addict friends hang out. Did they cook meth? Who knows, but apparently she's already shown up once to harass the new owners.

So yeah, market has topped.

7   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2017 Jun 8, 11:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

We're headed for the economic reboot we should have had in 2008, but everyone was propped up with too big to fail bailouts.
Those few failed bastards of 2008, should have propagated out into over 100,000 new small business ventures hiring millions of people. In a race to coalesce all of the wealth into one bank again.

As a result of the 2008 financial meddling, those that fucked everything up held on to it, and became bigger monopolies.

I want it all to crash and burn hard. I'll be there at the burial in my V8 Ford to pick up shit in the fire sale Auction.

I'm fixin to git paid Ya'll!

8   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 8, 11:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Printing money backed by nothing doesn't cause a crash, it causes a rise in prices. More money chasing the same number of goods = higher prices, not lower prices.

9   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 8, 12:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I never get the "wisdom" on here that a crash somehow magically "resets" things back to being good again. There is nothing healed by a crash. Nothing is fixed.

A crash makes the 99.99% of people poorer and the 0.01% get richer by buying up all of the productive assets at fire sale prices. Things are permanently worse off for everyone but the richest of the rich. Wealth and income become more concentrated. It's bad.

10   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2017 Jun 8, 12:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joeyjojojunior says

Printing money backed by nothing doesn't cause a crash,

Still wetting your feet in economic theory I see. Leveraging creates instability by playing a confidence game that citizens never win. Look into the root of every economic crash in this country, and you will find speculation, and attempted manipulation.

Look at the topic of this thread, nothing rises forever, but they don't dare stop the presses.

11   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 8, 12:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Here's a pro-tip for you. Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

12   Rew   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 3:49pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Housing US General/Near Me
Tiny supply, huge demand, nothing super scary in the financial space specifically to mortgages.
Moderate price gains continue. It's a snooze fest like the last two years. Ya-awwwwwn.

I probably don't have a good enough grasp on all areas of the market to really call it, but the only thing looking over inflated to me is the stock market, in general, and it likely has more legs to go before it turns. I don't think we will see housing as leading factor in the next turn down.

Tenpoundbass says

We're headed for the economic reboot we should have had in 2008, but everyone was propped up with too big to fail bailouts.

Not correct. We are headed for the run up that will set-up the failure. The disconnect between main-street and Wall Street is already order times larger (which is what you and I feel, what you are actually commenting on). This means the run up likely doesn't get too big. Trump himself, being an incompetent leader in the eyes of most, will naturally temper some risky behavior as well.

I'll stand back now so you can continue to eagerly sprinkle gasoline and expletives about the place. ;)

13   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (30)   2017 Jun 8, 4:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FACE!

FACE! IT'S ALL THAT'S LEFT FOR DINNER!

14   Jimbo in SF   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 9:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I just don't see the crash yet.
- Remember 2001 when all your work buddies we're buying IPOs every day?
- Remember 2007 when your Mexican house cleaner owned 3 houses herself?

I'm not seeing that level of craziness at the moment.

When 'Joe Public' is back investing in the market and you hear about stock picks at your son's baseball game - that's when you start getting worried.

15   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 8, 10:35pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

it does not necessarily crash but prices may simply slowly go down.

not sure when but right now i personally think is not a good time. esp in CA.

16   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 9, 6:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anonymous says

MMR - Sounds like your buyers were looking for an out and used the gates. I've always done mine after the inspection gets back.

Agreed-I think it was the ethnic mix as they are older and southern. Lot of blacks, Africans, Indians and Asians and significant number of gay households as well.

17   Blurtman   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 9, 6:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

In the Seattle area, prices were up 12% YOY. Inventory is low as in-the-money homeowners can sell but can't buy again in the area. We are selling our home and moving out of the area. Our home will have almost doubled in value at the anticipated sales price since we bought in 2005. I don't think it is a bubble meaning that it will burst as lending standards are not as terribly lax as they were in the last meltdown. I do think homes are generally unaffordable for most folks. A lot of buyers in this area are from China and India. They are typically H1b job takers and now home takers. Amazon, Google, etc are hiring, and a two income family can still afford to buy an $800k-$1 million home, apparently.

18   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 9, 6:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joeyjojojunior says

Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

Maybe not, but it generally leads to speculation. With so much liquidity and low interest rates, investors seek returns any place they can get them. That usually leads to speculation.

19   Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 9, 7:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Jimbo in SF says

I just don't see the crash yet.

- Remember 2001 when all your work buddies we're buying IPOs every day?

- Remember 2007 when your Mexican house cleaner owned 3 houses herself?

I'm not seeing that level of craziness at the moment.

When 'Joe Public' is back investing in the market and you hear about stock picks at your son's baseball game - that's when you start getting worried.

There is absolutely no crazy bubbles in the residential housing market right now.
We don't have anything close to super high leverage to unqualified borrowers. Neither are we building homes like we did during the bubble era, and therefore we have a true shortage of homes.

20   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2017 Jun 9, 11:21am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joeyjojojunior says

Here's a pro-tip for you. Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

Because JJJ SAYS SO.

How bout we live in the world where you're not always right(this one). What do you call creating debt notes that require a repayment that is always higher than the value the notes represent when you have done nothing to guarantee your ability to pay those notes+interest back? And to make it worse, don't tie the notes to any physical asset, so there is absolutely zero assurance of any repayment ever being made?

21   jvolstad   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 9, 12:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Let's see what happens to housing values when the Fed stops devaluing the dollar and interest rates return to normal levels. Check!!

I am looking forward to a better return on my CD's.

22   Rew   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 9, 1:02pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Jvolstad ... you would see a negative inflation/CPI rate and a deflationary depression in a snap ... if the Fed was stupid enough to tighten the reigns to that degree.

23   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 10, 7:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

NuttBoxer says

How bout we live in the world where you're not always right(this one). What do you call creating debt notes that require a repayment that is always higher than the value the notes represent when you have done nothing to guarantee your ability to pay those notes+interest back? And to make it worse, don't tie the notes to any physical asset, so there is absolutely zero assurance of any repayment ever being made?

Not sure what you're even taking about here. Government issuing debt notes? The notes are tied to the income generating ability of the United States. But what does this have to do with housing being overvalued?

24   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2017 Jun 10, 7:58am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

I'm not aware of any subprime swaps or whatever the hell complicated name financial instrument they were using in the past to bundle and sell them. So it's probably not a bubble, but just a sign of times. Everything is expensive because of liberal policies that promote huge demand and low supply. CA was better off when it was Republican, it's terrible what's going on these days.

26   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 25, 9:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

27   Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 25, 10:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joshuatrio says

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

That's what happens when there's very little to buy. Expect further price increases too.

28   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 25, 10:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anonymous says

MMR - Sounds like your buyers were looking for an out and used the gates. I've always done mine after the inspection gets back

Most likely....finally got house sold at full ask with buyers covering closing and moved out....took an extra week and got into "bidding war" with two people.

If first buyer fails to secure financing, there is another offer in wings at same terms.

29   MMR   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 25, 10:29am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

joshuatrio says

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

Your area definitely hot...south suburbs would take up to 6 months on market, as no one actually working in city would want to live there

30   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 25, 12:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Yeah in in my area if you actually got what you paid for it-would be a great deal- prices are going up.

In my area, things are up about 20-30% when compared to 3-4 years ago. Which in this area is yuuge. Lets see, I am tempted to sell. I have started seeing a few listings though.

31   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 25, 1:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I don't see housing ever dropping again in our lifetimes. Anywhere from 3-65% gains every year.

32   curious2   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 25, 1:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

just any guy says

I don't see housing ever dropping again in our lifetimes.

IDK about that. Autonomous cars, 3D printing, and robotic construction might enable developers to build whole new towns, with each house made to order on a timetable never possible before. An old pile of sticks might seem less valuable when competitors offer a brand new house made with modern materials in 10 days, and an autonomous car makes the commuting distance trivial. Between 2020 and 2030, suburbs might face unprecedented competition from exurbs, bringing prices down closer to a much reduced replacement cost. Even cities might feel the downward pressure, if suburban and exurban prices fall enough.

33   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 26, 4:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

MMR says

Your area definitely hot...south suburbs would take up to 6 months on market, as no one actually working in city would want to live there

Agree. I'm guessing it's the schools on the North side that are drawing families in.

MMR says

Most likely....finally got house sold at full ask with buyers covering closing and moved out....took an extra week and got into "bidding war" with two people.

If first buyer fails to secure financing, there is another offer in wings at same terms.

Congrats!!

34   junkmail   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 26, 10:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Obviously property is local but in a few cities in California wages don't compare to rents/prices. Also rents + prices are rising faster than hourly wages. If you agree with that information... we are headed to bubble territory. (if not there already)
If you think bubbles don't exist in housing, just look at Toronto over the last year and Vancouver the last year and a half. Both bubbles and both have burst. Toronto in the last 3 months.

35   BayArea   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 26, 10:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Here is the difference:

The melt-down we had a decade ago was based on a subprime lending crisis. The market was heading to the moon and lenders were giving out loans to anyone with a pulse. As long as the market continued to rise, the system worked great, everyone continued to benefit and get rich. But as soon that market growth stopped, we all saw what happened next.

This time things are not being driven by a subprime lending crisis. They are being driven by an increasing gap between home price and wages. That can only diverge for so long before there is a problem. Should we expect a correction? Ya probably, I think we'll see a small correction. Will it be a melt-down, not by any stretch of the imagination. People have skin in the game now.

36   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 26, 11:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

BayArea says

That can only diverge for so long before there is a problem.

As long as the housing supply is way below the demand, you'll get more homeless but prices won't go down.
The operating procedure for the elite is to sacrifice an increasing amount of people to keep the status quo going.

37   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Jun 26, 11:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

BayArea says

This time things are not being driven by a subprime lending crisis

There are qualified mortgages with debt-to-income ratio below 43% (already very high), but this can be exceeded for non-qualified mortgages.
When there is a sufficient downdraft in the market, we will see a foreclosure wave again.

38   Goran_K   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 26, 11:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

As long as the housing supply is way below the demand, you'll get more homeless but prices won't go down.

The operating procedure for the elite is to sacrifice an increasing amount of people to keep the status quo going.

It's also over regulation. It doesn't make sense for builders to go and build homes and target middle class buyers when the government is taking such a large slice of the investment up front. If government would stop putting their hands into developers pockets, you would have much larger supply.

39   Quigley   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 30, 5:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

There are qualified mortgages with debt-to-income ratio below 43% (already very high), but this can be exceeded for non-qualified mortgages.

When there is a sufficient downdraft in the market, we will see a foreclosure wave again.

I see more Preforeclosures on the local market than I do houses for sale. While this might seem ominous, I've yet to see a single house for sale as a foreclosure or short sale or any of that sort prevalent around 2010. And I highly doubt I will. All foreclosures get snapped up by housing investors, and then either flipped or turned into rentals. If flipped, they'll put a veneer on the house, paint it, add a few sparkles, and then try to sell it for $150-200k more. In this market, they may get that. Still hardly anything for sale, and winning a bid vs. all the other offers is the obstacle.





The Housing Trap
You're being set up to spend your life paying off a debt you don't need to take on, for a house that costs far more than it should. The conspirators are all around you, smiling to lure you in, carefully choosing their words and watching your reactions as they push your buttons, anxiously waiting for the moment when you sign the papers that will trap you and guarantee their payoff. Don't be just another victim of the housing market. Use this book to defend your freedom and defeat their schemes. You can win the game, but first you have to learn how to play it.
115 pages, $12.50

Kindle version available


about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions