forgot password register

reset password

register

patrick.net

 

#scitech


#housing #investing #politics #random more»
772,348 comments by 10,923 registered users, 2 online now: stfu, WookieMan
new post
« prev   scitech   next »

« First    « Previous     Comments 5 - 44 of 44     Last »

6 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 4:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Onvacation says

Climate goes through natural cycles mostly because of the suns natural cycles.

This is nonsense with respect to global warming and was demolished around 2010 when many alt-science denier sources predicted colder temperatures due to the sunspot cycle.

Reality? 2016 hottest year on record and both poles hit new records for minimum sea ice.

7 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 6:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

Reality? 2016 hottest year on record

"NOAA fixed the 2016 increase at 0.04 degrees Celsius. The British Met Office reported an even lower rise, of 0.01C. Both increases are well within the margin of error for such calculations, approximately 0.1 degrees, and therefore are dismissed by many scientists as meaningless."

8 YesYNot   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 7:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

"NOAA fixed the 2016 increase at 0.04 degrees Celsius. The British Met Office reported an even lower rise, of 0.01C. Both increases are well within the margin of error for such calculations, approximately 0.1 degrees, and therefore are dismissed by many scientists as meaningless."

Good point. Now everybody who was convinced that AGW is real based only on the temperature rise from 2015 to 2016 can relax. How many people do you think that is?

9 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 2, 7:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

If you're not shooting by now, you're dead.

10 HEY YOU   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 2, 7:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

What's going on with the collapse of property values due to SLR?

11 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 7:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

iwog says

Reality? 2016 hottest year on record

"NOAA fixed the 2016 increase at 0.04 degrees Celsius. The British Met Office reported an even lower rise, of 0.01C. Both increases are well within the margin of error for such calculations, approximately 0.1 degrees, and therefore are dismissed by many scientists as meaningless."

See what you did there? You skipped over the MASSIVE GLARING POINT THAT DESTROYS YOUR SIDE and BTW the only reason I brought up 2016 to begin with!

You skipped over the fact that around 2010, all the brilliant skeptics were predicting a cooling trend due to sunspot cycles. They weren't only wrong they were EXTREMELY wrong and exactly the opposite happened.

Scientific theories are confirmed by prediction. The prediction of steadily warming oceans and steadily melting poles has been accurate for 30 years. Global warming is a fact and it's very very sad how many billions of people you are going to help exterminate.

12 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 8:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

You skipped over the fact that around 2010, all the brilliant skeptics were predicting a cooling trend due to sunspot cycles. They weren't only wrong they were EXTREMELY wrong and exactly the opposite happened.

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

13 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 8:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Onvacation says

wog says

You skipped over the fact that around 2010, all the brilliant skeptics were predicting a cooling trend due to sunspot cycles. They weren't only wrong they were EXTREMELY wrong and exactly the opposite happened.

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Let me help you. 0.85 degrees over the last century, that is if you BELIEVE that worldwide temps can even be measured.

You call people who question the AGW narrative.deniers. What does that even mean?

14 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 2, 8:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

That's an incredible comment considering the entire graph is ever increasing sea level rise.

Onvacation says

Sea levels have gone up almost a foot in the last 150 years. Four inches in the last 20 years alone!

The predictions are for another foot by the end of the century IF the pattern continues.

AGW is a propaganda campaign designed to extract more taxes and scare children.

15 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 4:33am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

Global warming means heavier rain and snowfal

So global warming means MORE snowfall? I thought snow required cold?

The system is way more complex than I thought.

16 Dan8267   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 3, 8:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

So global warming means MORE snowfall? I thought snow required cold?

Are you seriously that ignorant or is this a joke? On the chance that you are serious (see Poe's Law)...

Scientific America: Why Global Warming Can Mean Harsher Winter Weather

[W]armer temperatures in the winter of 2006 caused Lake Erie to not freeze for the first time in its history. This actually led to increased snowfalls because more evaporating water from the lake was available for precipitation.

Skeptical Science: Does record snowfall disprove global warming?

Global warming decreases the likeliness of snowstorm conditions in warmer, southern regions. However, in northern, colder regions, temperatures are often too cold for very heavy snow so warming can bring more favourable snowstorm conditions (Kunkel 2008). This is borne out in observations. Over the last century, there has been a downward trend in snowstorms across the lower Midwest, South and West Coast. Conversely, there's been an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest East, and Northeast with the overall national trend also upwards (Changnon 2006).

To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Global temperatures in the last few months of record snowfall are some of the hottest on record. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events.

17 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 8:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Dan8267 says

Onvacation says

So global warming means MORE snowfall? I thought snow required cold?

Are you seriously that ignorant o

Dan8267 says

Global temperatures in the last few months of record snowfall are some of the hottest on record.

Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Enlighten the ignorant.

18 Dan8267   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 3, 10:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

Enlighten the ignorant.

What do you think the referenced articles and quotes are for?

19 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 11:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Dan8267 says

To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation

“Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms.”

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=569

Do you think the ipcc is credible? If so why have their predictions failed?

I don't expect a straight answer but hope to be entertained by your response.

20 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 11:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

97% OF SCIENTISTS AGREE: GLOBAL WARMING IS MAKING WINTERS COLDER AND MILDER

21 Dan8267   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 3, 11:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

The evidence for man-made climate change and it's dangers is overwhelming. At this point, anyone denying the existence of man-made climate change should be considered a lunatic or pathological liar. Such persons should have zero say in policies.

22 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 11:25am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Dan8267 says

At this point, anyone denying the existence of man-made climate change should be considered a lunatic or pathological liar. Such persons should have zero say in policies.

I have no say in policies.

Can you answer the questions:

Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Onvacation says

Do you think the ipcc is credible? If so why have their predictions failed?

24 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 11:39am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Let me help you

25 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 11:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Onvacation says

Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Let me help you

This does not seem right. How could the temp have risen over the last 150 years but fallen over the last couple of decades. Help me Dan
Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

26 YesYNot   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

Do you think the ipcc is credible? If so why have their predictions failed?

I don't expect a straight answer but hope to be entertained by your response.

Here's the full quote:

Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.

Did you leave off the conditional phrase because you didn't understand it or you wanted to lie about what was in the IPCC report? Do you even see how this is not contradictory to what Dan wrote regarding increased snow in the north but decreased snow in the south?

I'm not amused by your posts. If they are sincere, I'm disheartened by the lack of clarity and truthfulness.

27 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

YesYNot says

Did you leave off the conditional phrase because you didn't understand it or you wanted to lie about what was in the IPCC report?

We were talking about record snow.

Maybe you can answer:
Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

28 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

This does not seem right. How could the temp have risen over the last 150 years but fallen over the last couple of decades. Help me Dan

I'm flabbergasted here. Seriously I can't believe the level of dishonesty being displayed here from someone who is pretending to present data. It took me a little while to first find the source of your graph and then to break down exactly how you fucked with it and manipulated it to get the result you were looking for. Generally global warming deniers are pretty sure global warming is a fraud but don't really have any information to prove it. YOU however have gone to the extent of actually manipulating the data to present something that is GROSSLY inaccurate. You are intentionally lying to mislead.

I'll start by removing the totally arbitrary December - February time period. I'll extend the graph to the last full set of data, 2016. Finally since you want to talk about decades, I will include four FULL decades and not 19 years like you posted above. (gosh I wonder why it was 19 years and not 20?)

Here's what it looks like after all the arbitrary cherry picking bullshit was removed and only 4 decades of raw temperature data is presented in a graph:

OH FUCK!!! What happened??????????

29 Chupacabra   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 3, 12:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

There is also the component of thermal expansion that I don't see mentioned on this thread.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/887

"Thermosteric estimates are based on measurements of warming of both deep water areas as well as warm water areas of the ocean."

30 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

We were talking about record snow.

Since I originally brought it up, I'll address the issue of snow.

A warmer planet means stronger winds and more evaporation from the oceans resulting in heavier concentrations of water vapor in the air. Anyone with a high-school level of science education can deduce these facts easily.

Snow is a binary effect. It's either below freezing and it snows or it's above freezing and it rains. That means in a climate where it is below freezing for months at a time and where nearly all precipitation is snow, the two forces I listed above will result in heavier snowfall during the winter.

I would like to see you address this argument but I'm sure you wont do that. You simply talk about IPCC or link some bullshit chart or talk about something else.

31 YesYNot   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

We were talking about record snow.

We were talking about whether or not one would expect more or less snow with global warming. The answer is more snow in some areas and less in others. That was too complicated for you. Why did you misrepresent the IPCC report?

Onvacation says

Maybe you can answer:

If you are asking what is the increase in the yearly average temperature in the lowest region of the atmosphere since 2010, it is 0.1 oC according to this: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
You posted the temperature in a specific location during 3 months of the year. Global climate change does not mean an equal warming in summer and winter months. A warmer global temperature could also cause local cooling by changing circulation patterns. This should be obvious.

32 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

YOU however have gone to the extent of actually manipulating the data to present something that is GROSSLY inaccurate. You are intentionally lying to mislead.

Found it online in my search for confirmation bias. I am willing to be convinced by evidence.
Maybe YOU can answer the question:
Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

33 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Chupacabra says

There is also the component of thermal expansion that I don't see mentioned on this thread.

Yes that's responsible for about half of the sea level rise. I was going to jump to the conversation about global warming being mostly about the oceans and the ice caps but after Onvacation posted that bullshit chart, I decided to demolish that first.

In actuality terrestrial temperatures are a very tiny part of global warming with the VAST majority of heat energy going to the oceans and the state change from ice to water.

34 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

Found it online in my search for confirmation bias. I am willing to be convinced by evidence.

Maybe YOU can answer the question:

I did answer the fucking question and you are being disingenuous again by not acknowledging it. Your question contains a false premise. Temperatures did not decline.

I corrected your graph and I got it from the original source. Are you going to comment on it now or pretend I didn't post it?

35 Dan8267   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 3, 12:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

I have no say in policies.

I was talking about politicians denying climate change.

Onvacation says

Can you answer the questions:

Onvacation says

How much warmer is it now than 2010?

Onvacation says

Do you think the ipcc is credible? If so why have their predictions failed?

- How much warmer is it now than 2010?


Source: NASA: Despite Subtle Differences, Global Temperature Records in Close Agreement

No, I don't know the exact change in mean global temperature (MGT) from the arbitrary, and likely cherry picked, years of 2010 and 2017. The raw data is available online for free if you want to go through the spreadsheet.

However, what matters is that the MGT has been rising for the past 150 years, and that rise is accelerating. From the above graph, the MGT has risen 0.6°C since 1940, which is the year that represents the mean temperature for the 20th century. A 0.6°C rise is enormous. It is utter foolishness to say otherwise simply because you as a human being would not notice this. The amount of heat this requires and the change on the climate as a result of such a change is very significant.

- Do you think the ipcc is credible? If so why have their predictions failed?

Yes, the IPCC is credible, and no, their predictions have not failed. Nor has NASA's. Furthermore, the empirical rise in GMT is undeniable and proves man-made global warming and climate change.

Contrary to Contrarian Claims, IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate

There is a new myth circulating in the climate contrarian blogosphere and mainstream media that a figure presented in the "leaked" draft Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report shows that the planet has warmed less than previous IPCC report climate model simulations predicted. Tamino at the Open Mind blog and Skeptical Science's own Alex C have done a nice job refuting this myth.

Not surprisingly, the Frame and Stone result is very similar to our evaluation of the FAR projections, finding that they accurately simulated the global surface temperature response to the increased greenhouse effect since 1990. The study also shows that the warming since 1990 cannot be explained by the Earth's natural temperature variability alone, because the warming (red) is outside of the range of natural variability (black and gray).

As shown above, the IPCC has thus far done remarkably well at predicting future global surface warming. The same cannot be said for the climate contrarians who criticize the IPCC and mainstream climate science predictions.

Here's the thing about lying about scientific facts. You'll get caught every time. Science is verifiable. That's why it works. That's why fraud never succeeds against science.

36 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:55pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

Snow is a binary effect. It's either below freezing and it snows or it's above freezing and it rains. That means in a climate where it is below freezing for months at a time and where nearly all precipitation is snow, the two forces I listed above will result in heavier snowfall during the winter.

I would like to see you address this argument

So you are saying that when it is cold it snows?

I agree with you.

I still don't understand how global warming causes record snow.

37 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 12:59pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

YesYNot says

If you are asking what is the increase in the yearly average temperature in the lowest region of the atmosphere since 2010, it is 0.1 oC

So 0.01 degrees per year average.

38 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 1:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Pollution and overpopulation are real problems in the world. Muslim terrorism is a real problem in the world. Lying cheating governments are a real problem in the world. Manmade climate change not so much.

39 Onvacation   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 1:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

iwog says

OH FUCK!!! What happened??????????

Did a little more "research". I didn't realize how noaah manipulated their data.
https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-due-to-noaa-data-tampering/

Of course this IS a denier site.

40 YesYNot   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 1:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

So 0.01 degrees per year average.

Yeah, if you pick those particular years, and round down. You will probably think that 0.01 oC per year increase is nothing to worry about. You'd be stupid to make that assumption for two reasons. Reason 1: The pattern is accelerating in general, though you can cherry pick some years to get a smaller number.
Reason 2: It is cumulative. Over 100 years, that has led to 1 oC. Eventually, that will be 4 oC. It will probably be sooner than you think. There are a number of reasons that 4oC would be bad, even if an extra 4 oC would not kill you this afternoon.

41 Dan8267   ignore (3)   2017 Aug 3, 1:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

Did a little more "research". I didn't realize how noaah manipulated their data.

https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-due-to-noaa-data-tampering/

Of course this IS a denier site.

NOAA does not manipulate data or publish fraudulent data. Nor does NASA or any other of the hundreds of reputable scientific organizations around the world. Any mistake, no matter how slight, would be attacked relentlessly by scientists who have enormous incentives to disprove papers.

Just because something is on the Internet does not make it credible. There are plenty of sites that are run by the TenPoundBasses of the world that simply publish complete bullshit.

It's not hard to distinguish between creditable sources and fraudulent ones. Creditable sources have long histories often going back before the World Wide Web. The world scientific community is so large that it's easy to verify which organizations are real scientific organizations and which are fake ones. The real ones are acknowledged by the community as a whole. You'll never see realclimatescience.com referenced by NASA or the Royal Meteorological Society except perhaps if they are debunking the source.

In short there is no excuse for being fooled by random asshole spouting lies on the Internet. It's not that hard to distinguish real scientific organizations from propaganda mills.

42 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 2:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

So you are saying that when it is cold it snows?

Nope that wasn't my point. It's simply your disingenuous translation of my point. Regardless of your position on this issue, you keep being intentionally dishonest.

My actual point was that in cold climates, temperature can increase several degrees without reducing the amount of snow because it's still freezing. Since warmer oceans put more water vapor into the air and warmer air causes stronger winds, there will be more snow.

43 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 3, 2:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Onvacation says

Pollution and overpopulation are real problems in the world. Muslim terrorism is a real problem in the world. Lying cheating governments are a real problem in the world. Manmade climate change not so much.

Man-made climate change will cause the death of hundreds of millions in your lifetime assuming you're less than 60 years old.

44 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Aug 3, 2:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Long: yams, ammo, face marinade and dirigibles!

« First    « Previous     Comments 5 - 44 of 44     Last »

users   about   suggestions   source code   contact  
topics   best comments   comment jail  
10 reasons it's a terrible time to buy  
8 groups who lie about the housing market  
37 bogus arguments about housing  
get a free bumper sticker:

top   bottom   home