Shopify (SHOP) just keeps surging
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Shopify (SHOP) just keeps surging

By Patrick following x   2017 Aug 30, 11:52am 893 views   12 comments   watch   quote     share  


Up 3.38% just today:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHOP?p=SHOP


There's no dividend and no earnings, but revenue keeps doubling each year. I have a 267% gain since buying it in May of 2016. This kind of freaks me out. Sell now and call myself lucky, or hold and bet that the momentum is going to keep up for another year?

It's rare that I break my own rule against buying stocks with no dividends or earnings, but I worked at a failing competitor of Shopify called Bigcommerce, and they were so intimidated by Shopify's success that it inspired me to buy the stock. Turns out that their fear was an excellent indicator.
#investing
1 Jimbo in SF   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 30, 12:13pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm up 150% since my first purchase, but I added to it and am up 65% overall, which leaves lots of room to sell if it starts declining.
They are approaching a point where they will soon start to make a small profit and that combined with the massive quarterly growth could see this share price grow even further.

I intend to hold and let this one play out, to see where it goes.
2 KimJongUn   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 30, 12:18pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

"Let your winners run"
3 TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 30, 12:33pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Stocks were meant to be sold, so sell them.

Nobody went broke selling too soon.

Me: Sell half and keep half. That way you made money even if it goes to a penny, a you make money if it goes to $200.
4 mell   ignore (1)   2017 Aug 31, 9:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

As long as you don't see a general market/economy downturn it's probably safe to let them run, esp. if you think the company is going to turn profitable. Sell 25% keep the rest.
5 Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 31, 10:09am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Patrick says
Turns out that their fear was an excellent indicator.


Can I generalize this somehow?

Maybe do some kind of poll of employees of tech companies about who their most fearsome competitor is, and invest there?
7 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Oct 4, 8:26am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

You're fine until the middle of 2018, then get out.
8 Jimbo in SF   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 4, 8:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says
You're fine until the middle of 2018, then get out.


@Iwog - tell me your reasoning behind that? What will happen in Mid 2018?
9 iwog   ignore (1)   2017 Oct 4, 8:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Jimbo in SF says
@Iwog - tell me your reasoning behind that? What will happen in Mid 2018?


This is a stock market bubble. The election of Donald Trump marks the final acceleration phase of that bubble which generally lasts 18 months to two years.

PE ratios are currently the second highest they have ever been in a bull market run with the only time they were greater being in 1999. By mid 2018 I expect they will be around 35 at which point the market will be totally irrational and very dangerous to be long in.

Also, and this is the most important part, there's no upward space for profits to rise much more. From now on wage increases will eat up increased sales until the crash. I also think the market is betting on the Republican tax cuts which overwhelmingly favor large corporations. This is a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news. The actual passing of a new tax plan will be the news and if it happens, will be next year.
10 HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2017 Oct 4, 10:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Anyone ever lost any money?
11 Patrick   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 8, 3:57pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sure, lost a boatload on Polycom years ago. Various other failures linger in my portfolio. Fortunately, they are more than offset by the winners. Here are the biggest failures I still hold, just out of spite at my own stupidity:

BGFV
DSW
QCOM
GPS
GWW
12 BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 8, 10:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

those who want stock advice from Jimbo in SF says
iwog says
You're fine until the middle of 2018, then get out.


@Iwog - tell me your reasoning behind that? What will happen in Mid 2018?


if i were you i would check out the thread where he predicted a collapse that never happened. flipping a coin works just as well.

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