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ARRY and VCEL

By mell following x   2017 Aug 31, 9:41am 6,060 views   55 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


ARRY tripled since my first recommendation, VCEL close to doubled. Both have much more room to run, ARRY has an incredibly large (mostly oncology) pipeline and partnerships as it transitions from development stage to commercial biotech and VCEL is turning towards profitability on ramping up their best available knee cartilage stem cell treatment and another one for heart failure in the waiting. Check em out, both far from being done yet.

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16   anonymous   ignore (null)   2017 Oct 24, 4:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEY YOU says
The market will be at 30,000 by December.
No one ever loses in the market or flipping shacks.

mell says
giving me the biggest loss I've ever eaten erasing all the gains and some,


Got a dollar amount?


~200k

E-man says
Mell,

I'm looking at both of these stocks, and here are my opinions:

VCEL - This stock probably had a reversed split. Otherwise, it went from $100+ down to where it is today. You can make an argument that it's forming a handle at today's prices before the break out? From the numbers, this stock is way too speculative. Of course it can be a 10-20 baggers, but it who knows. One shouldn't gamble with this stock on the money s/he can't afford to lose.

ARRY - Looks like it's forming a handle too before a break out?

Good luck.


VCEL is turning to profitability in 2018 at the latest, just do some research on MACI surgery, it's the best knee cartilage replacement surgery out there and will quickly become gold standard. Plus Epicel revenues rising as well. The R/S days are long gone and mgmt changed to one with a clear execution plan. Most bios fail multiple times before they success with one or two or more of their drugs/devices, so 80% look like this. You buy when they turn to profitability. Short term biotech is weak so I regard this as a buying opp, though earnings beginning of November may boost this quickly. More neutral on ARRY though it remains an eternal buyout candidate full of surprises with its huge pipeline. Technicals don't matter much to me. cheers
17   E-man   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 10:09am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Thanks for sharing Mell. If one is looking for an entry point, today is about as good as it gets. Yeah, one maybe able to squeeze another 10-15 cents to the downside for the bragging rights, but this is a good entry point. I'm going to trust you on your research and buy 2,000 shares today. IF it goes up 10 folds in the coming years, I'll be happy. If it goes to zero, it'll be a tax write-off. $8.5k is something I can afford to lose without losing sleep over it.

Good luck to both of us. ;)
18   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 3, 7:41am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

E-man says
Thanks for sharing Mell. If one is looking for an entry point, today is about as good as it gets. Yeah, one maybe able to squeeze another 10-15 cents to the downside for the bragging rights, but this is a good entry point. I'm going to trust you on your research and buy 2,000 shares today. IF it goes up 10 folds in the coming years, I'll be happy. If it goes to zero, it'll be a tax write-off. $8.5k is something I can afford to lose without losing sleep over it.

Good luck to both of us. ;)


cheers! Will likely be in limbo (4.20s-4.60s) til earnings November 10, which I expect to be a solid beat. I don't think this can ever go to zero as it will be eventually profitable, so this is derisked. I own over 50K shares (at 2.80 albeit), don't repeat this at home ;)
19   E-man   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 27, 11:40am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Mell,

I did some research on the company over the weekend and didn't like what I saw so I exited my position at break even this morning. The company did an 8:1 reversed split in 2010 and another 20:1 reversed split in 2013. The company hasn't made any money since 1997. That's 20 years. At this burning rate, the company will run out of cash by the middle of next year. I've never liked companies that had to do reversed splits. I wish you the best of luck.
20   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 27, 6:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

E-man says
Mell,

I did some research on the company over the weekend and didn't like what I saw so I exited my position at break even this morning. The company did an 8:1 reversed split in 2010 and another 20:1 reversed split in 2013. The company hasn't made any money since 1997. That's 20 years. At this burning rate, the company will run out of cash by the middle of next year. I've never liked companies that had to do reversed splits. I wish you the best of luck.


The reverse split/ticker change and poor past performance are points I cannot argue against. The changed mgmt and focus though since the ASTM days and have strong revenue growth. With deferred revs Q4 could come in profitable and 2018 should yield 100MM revs at break even if not profitable with both MACI and Epicel growing. A 130MM market cap for a company with 100MM projected revs is extremely low. Many biotechs split and dilute before they hit pay day, some of course never make it. So yeah there are safer plays though I think you should revisit this after Q4 results at the beginning of March and/or other news. cheers
21   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 30, 8:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
E-man says
Mell,

I did some research on the company over the weekend and didn't like what I saw so I exited my position at break even this morning. The company did an 8:1 reversed split in 2010 and another 20:1 reversed split in 2013. The company hasn't made any money since 1997. That's 20 years. At this burning rate, the company will run out of cash by the middle of next year. I've never liked companies that had to do reversed splits. I wish you the best of luck.


The reverse split/ticker change and poor past performance are points I cannot argue against. The changed mgmt and focus though since the ASTM days and have strong revenue growth. With deferred revs Q4 could come in profitable and 2018 should yield 100MM revs at break even if not profitable with both MACI and Epicel growing. A 130MM market cap for a company with 100MM projected revs is extremely low. Many biotechs split a...


@E-man they had a very bullish investor conference yesterday. No competition on the horizon for years. Should reconsider ;)
22   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Dec 1, 7:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
mell says
E-man says
Mell,

I did some research on the company over the weekend and didn't like what I saw so I exited my position at break even this morning. The company did an 8:1 reversed split in 2010 and another 20:1 reversed split in 2013. The company hasn't made any money since 1997. That's 20 years. At this burning rate, the company will run out of cash by the middle of next year. I've never liked companies that had to do reversed splits. I wish you the best of luck.


The reverse split/ticker change and poor past performance are points I cannot argue against. The changed mgmt and focus though since the ASTM days and have strong revenue growth. With deferred revs Q4 could come in profitable and 2018 should yield 100MM revs at break even if not profitable with both MACI and Epicel growing. A 130MM ...


@E-man climbing fast but it's not too late to get back in ;)
23   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Dec 4, 9:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
@E-man they had a very bullish investor conference yesterday. No competition on the horizon for years. Should reconsider ;)


C'mon @E-Man, last chance for sub-$5 :)
24   E-man   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 4, 9:25am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
mell says
@E-man they had a very bullish investor conference yesterday. No competition on the horizon for years. Should reconsider ;)


C'mon @E-Man, last chance for sub-$5 :)


Congrats on the nice bounce. I wish you the best of luck. I'll focus on making money with real estate. I spot a real estate deal in my market from a mile away. Not so much with stocks. ;)

Merry Christmas
25   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Dec 22, 10:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Both ARRY and VCEL hitting close highs today. VCEL is going to $10+ in 2018.
26   mell   ignore (2)   2017 Dec 29, 10:36am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
Both ARRY and VCEL hitting close highs today. VCEL is going to $10+ in 2018.


ARRY breached $13 upwards and VCEL $5.40 upwards. Both have more room to run, VCEL just filed a solid 8K. These can be "retirement" stocks given a large enough early entry.
27   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 2, 9:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

New highs on both, close to all-time highs. VCEL at $6 (PT raised to $9 by Piper Jaffray), ARRY 13.40. More room to run.
28   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 8, 11:36am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

VCEL hitting close to all-time high with 6.25 today. $10+ stock in the making.
30   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 10, 11:01am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
VCEL at 2:15 mark: http://abc7news.com/health/life-saving-innovations-on-display-at-jp-morgan-healthcare-conference/2915266/


VCEL hit 6.35 today, going for a triple. Stil a $10+ stock in the making. ARRY aiming at $14.
31   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 10:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
mell says
VCEL at 2:15 mark: http://abc7news.com/health/life-saving-innovations-on-display-at-jp-morgan-healthcare-conference/2915266/


VCEL hit 6.35 today, going for a triple. Stil a $10+ stock in the making. ARRY aiming at $14.


6.70 today. Freight-train.
32   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 22, 8:03am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ARRY today reported great early phase 3 lead in data and jumped 15% to $15. It's now a 4-5 bagger. Should go to $20. VCEL at all time highs around $6.70, around a 2-3 bagger. Two great biotech stocks to own even going forward.
33   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 26, 10:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

VCEL made a new all-time high at $7.55 today. That's a triple now. ARRY taking a breather before its run to $20. Still like ATRS and waiting for it to take off here at $2.25.
34   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 26, 10:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Biotech M & A chatter heating up due to new favorable tax laws.
35   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Jan 26, 11:01am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Some great calls there Mell.
36   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Jan 26, 10:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Did you see this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/01/24/marijuana-based-anti-seizure-drug-may-hit-u-s-market-in-2018-after-strong-study-results/?utm_term=.7dd564b9fc42
Potential for rescheduling right there, if FDA rules that there is medical use, in the current climate. With some months of sales data in Colorado and Nevada etc. And tax data and sll these instances proving cannabis the cure for the Opiod epidemic.

NJ racing towards rec MJ
VT legislation outright decriminalizing on their own recognizance

Republicans are in charge of the entire government. They need to quit pissing around and reschedule so we can get in the game before Canada locks down the global market.
37   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 27, 9:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

errc says
Did you see this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/01/24/marijuana-based-anti-seizure-drug-may-hit-u-s-market-in-2018-after-strong-study-results/?utm_term=.7dd564b9fc42
Potential for rescheduling right there, if FDA rules that there is medical use, in the current climate. With some months of sales data in Colorado and Nevada etc. And tax data and sll these instances proving cannabis the cure for the Opiod epidemic.

NJ racing towards rec MJ
VT legislation outright decriminalizing on their own recognizance

Republicans are in charge of the entire government. They need to quit pissing around and reschedule so we can get in the game before Canada locks down the global market.


Agreed. The potential for treating seizures has been known forever. I think they will get out of the way in favor of business. Sessions is fighting a long lost useless and harmful war here.
38   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 1, 11:25am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

VCEL $8.15 ARRY $15+
VCEL unstoppable bullish freight train approaching a quadruple like ARRY.
39   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 1, 3:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OK, I placed a limit order for 1200 shares of VCEL at $8.20. Will probably execute tomorrow.

It goes against my rules of buying only stocks with good p/e and paying a dividend. Purely a momentum play. Also, I know mell and think he probably knows what he's doing.
40   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 1, 4:35pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
OK, I placed a limit order for 1200 shares of VCEL at $8.20. Will probably execute tomorrow.

It goes against my rules of buying only stocks with good p/e and paying a dividend. Purely a momentum play. Also, I know mell and think he probably knows what he's doing.


It's a late entry for you but I still hold 35K out of 60K shares (all the way from 2.50). I believe this will go over $10 in 2018 and possibly to $25 in 2019. Regenerative stem cell business is just on the cusp of becoming mainstream and mass produced. The companies with the best/finest factories will be the key players in a huge global market
41   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 1, 5:49pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You can now make 8.20 - 2.50 = $5.70 off of me, lol!
42   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 2, 9:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
You can now make 8.20 - 2.50 = $5.70 off of me, lol!


lol you jinxed it. Picked a profit taking day. My advice would be to buy 1200 more at 7.55. I loaded the boat back up down here. LT over $10, very low risk as this is a profitability play w/o dilution risk.
43   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 2, 9:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Meh, I'm willing to wait quite a while. Whole market is down today so far.
44   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 24, 11:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Meh, I'm willing to wait quite a while. Whole market is down today so far.


Hang on to your shares, you may have bought at a local maximum, but certainly not an absolute one.

http://www.arkansasmatters.com/news/local-news/health-matters-cell-therapy-knee-repair/985321105

In the meantime ATRS is running (could easily double from here on XYOSTED FDA meeting news) and ARRY crossed $18.
45   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 26, 11:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

@Patrick hope you're still holding VCEL, almost back to your purchase price.
46   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 26, 11:55am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yup @mell I generally don't worry about fluctuations in the short term, so I'm still holding VCEL.
47   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 5, 6:28am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Blowout earnings for VCEL.
48   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Mar 5, 9:10am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Holy cow, up 25% today:

49   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Mar 5, 9:45am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
Blowout earnings for VCEL.


Good call. I didn't invest in it, but seriously thanks for posting about it. Many here talk a big game but don't give details on what they're doing for fear of being called out if it goes south. Or they simply aren't invested and haven't researched a thing so they just talk out their ass. I can't talk about users, but in the past we've had some good picks as well that we no longer get. I miss that.

So keep up with the suggestions as long as you're not trying to pump and dump us ;) Might throw something at it next time. I wish I could return the favor, but stock investment is just not my cup of tea and I don't like to post too much about things that I'm not better versed in. I make an effort not to talk out of my ass most of the time, except for when I have to go the bathroom.
50   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 5, 11:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
mell says
Blowout earnings for VCEL.


Good call. I didn't invest in it, but seriously thanks for posting about it. Many here talk a big game but don't give details on what they're doing for fear of being called out if it goes south. Or they simply aren't invested and haven't researched a thing so they just talk out their ass. I can't talk about users, but in the past we've had some good picks as well that we no longer get. I miss that.

So keep up with the suggestions as long as you're not trying to pump and dump us ;) Might throw something at it next time. I wish I could return the favor, but stock investment is just not my cup of tea and I don't like to post too much about things that I'm not better versed in. I make an effort not to talk out of my ass most of the time, except for when I have to go the bathroom.


Bought 50k shares at around $3, still holding 30k. I swing trade constantly around a core. Rarely I sell out, most of these companies are here to stay once they make it. No reason to liquidate the whole position. My bets are big and do go occasionally into margin anywhere from a few k to 100k (temporarily) on the 8% brokerage credit card. But with this you have to constantly monitor your stocks, so never more than a handful at a time. I would suggest ATRS as next breakout play.
51   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Mar 5, 2:20pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Up 42% for the day after market close!

That is my best one-day percentage gain ever.

Maybe I'll sell half tomorrow to get some gain and still stay in the game.
52   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Mar 5, 2:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Up 42% for the day after market close!

That is my best one-day percentage gain ever.

Maybe I'll sell half tomorrow to get some gain and still stay in the game.


Short-term def no a bad idea to take profits, likely not a long term concern though. I see this going to $15-$20 by EOY before it is fairly valued, then higher in 2019 if they stay on track.
53   mell   ignore (2)   2018 May 11, 9:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
Patrick says
Up 42% for the day after market close!

That is my best one-day percentage gain ever.

Maybe I'll sell half tomorrow to get some gain and still stay in the game.


Short-term def no a bad idea to take profits, likely not a long term concern though. I see this going to $15-$20 by EOY before it is fairly valued, then higher in 2019 if they stay on track.


Time for another tally on both: VCEL above $13, ARRY above $15, both 4-5 baggers. Wish I had had more cash to invest back then. I anticipate pps increase for both to slow and fluctuate, but within years to double again if no major roadblocks hit. VCEL will dominate knee cartilage surgery with MACI for years to come and ARRYs oncology pipeline is getting larger and lager (important PDUFA date end of June). Short to mid-term I am looking to reproduce a 2-4 bagger with ATRS by sometime in 2019 at the latest, bought first in the low 2's (important PDUFA date end of September).
54   Hircus   ignore (0)   2018 May 12, 9:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
VCEL is going to $10+ in 2018.


Nice call!
55   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Sep 20, 11:23am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Both doing well, VCEL at all time highs. But ARRY currently most undervalued. Recommend buying on EU approval news they just received minutes ago. I'm placing $30+ target pps on it (more than a double) within the next 12 months.

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