Go ahead & start it Trump!
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Go ahead & start it Trump!

By HEY YOU following x   2017 Sep 3, 9:37pm 149 views   1 comments   watch   quote     share  


"Xi made no direct reference to Sunday morning’s detonation as he addressed an annual summit of the Brics nations but told his audience that only through dialogue, consultation and negotiation could “the flame of war be put out”."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/03/xi-jinping-dark-shadow-north-korea-nuclear-test-chinese-brics
What Party's in charge?
1 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Sep 13, 4:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The North Korean nuclear ‘crisis’ is an illusion.

Despite what some analysts believe, others say there is no definitive, publicly available proof that North Korea has a missile with the range to strike the continental United States, a miniaturized nuclear warhead to mate with it, and the shielding technology to make sure the warhead survives the heat and pressure of reentry to the atmosphere.

That doesn't, of course, mean the show is harmless. But even if the North acquires those technical capabilities, the likelihood it might attack the United States with a nuclear missile will remain exceedingly low, for one overriding reason: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is, as former Obama administration arms control director Jon Wolfsthal has explained in authoritative detail, neither crazy nor suicidal.

In light of the undeniable reality of mutual deterrence, the North Korean "crisis" of 2017 can most accurately be seen as a media puppet show put on by Chairman Kim and President Trump for their own public relations purposes. Nonetheless, it’s a dangerous play. In the current overheated media environment, some piece of international theater by Kim or Trump — undertaken for political effect or negotiating edge or ego gratification — could become so magnified by breathless, 24-7 repetition on cable TV and the Internet that it becomes seen as a humiliating national insult. An emotional response to that insult could initiate a spiral of escalation that leads to catastrophe. To put things in more concrete terms: if U.S. forces had shot down the North Korean missile recently fired through Japanese airspace, might Kim, in an act of pique or bravado, have fired another missile, perhaps in the general direction of Guam? Would Trump have then felt compelled to craft a macho response? Etcetera — with a possible end result of mushroom clouds.

The best way to reduce the threat of inadvertent war posed by the invented theatrical crisis in Northeast Asia would be to persuade the prime thespians — Kim and Trump — that the show they have been putting on is unbelievable and unlikely to get either what he wants. But I don’t really expect that my views will motivate two world leaders of high (if largely unearned) self-regard to quickly change their policies on matters of life, death, and television ratings.

More: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mecklin-nkorea-commentary/commentary-the-north-korean-nuclear-crisis-is-an-illusion-idUSKCN1BM2HA

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