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The Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program To Catch Voter Fraud Has A 99% False Positive Rate

By Feux Follets following x   2017 Oct 31, 5:55pm 455 views   6 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    

A database system that will now be used by Indiana to automatically purge voter registrations that have duplicates in other states is 99 percent more likely to purge legitimate voters, according to a paper published last week by researchers from Stanford University, the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard, Yale, and Microsoft Research. Using the probability of matching birth dates for people with common first, middle, and last names and an audit of poll books from the 2012 US presidential election, the researchers concluded that the system would de-register "about 300 registrations used to cast a seemingly legitimate vote for every one registration used to cast a double vote."

The Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program is a system administered by the office of Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach—the vice-chair of President Donald Trump's Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity. Crosscheck uses voter roll data from 27 states—pulled every January by election officials and uploaded to an FTP site—to check for duplicate records across states, based on full name and date of birth, as well as the last four digits of social security numbers where that data is collected by voter registration (which is not consistent from state to state).

Indiana has used Crosscheck as an advisory system for a number of years but not to automatically purge voters. A law passed in July now allows county election officials in Indiana to de-register voters when a duplicate registration is detected. The problem with that variation in data is that it can leave room for massive error, as Sharad Goel and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr of Stanford University, Marc Meredith of the University of Pennsylvania, Michael Morse of Harvard University and Yale Law School, and David Rothschild of Microsoft Research found.

"Using data provided to Iowa in 2012," the researchers wrote, "we identified 1,483 pairings with complete SSN4 information in which both registration records were used to vote in 2012. In more than 99.5 percent of these pairings, the flagged registrations had different SSN4s, supporting our intuition that our model estimates an upper bound on the number of double votes cast in 2012." The researchers estimated that a maximum of 0.02 percent of votes cast were duplicate votes.

That number is much higher than the actual rate of fraudulent voting incidents as measured by other researchers. There were 31 incidents between 2000 and 2014 in which there was an allegation of voter fraud, according to an article by Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles. NYU Law School's Brennan Center for Justice did a long-term study on voter fraud and found the rate of fraud was between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent.

Even the Crosscheck program's own documentation states that duplicate votes detected may not be actual double votes because of voter check-in errors. Poll books are maintained by polling place volunteers—often with a minimal amount of training—and they or the voters themselves may make data entry errors. A 2014 "participation guide" for Crosscheck warns:



#VoterFraud #CrosscheckProgram

1   jazz_music   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 2, 12:05pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Keep your hands on your wallet when a Republican calls you a pickpocket.
2   Tenpoundbass   ignore (10)   2017 Nov 2, 12:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

It's better than nothing.
3   joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 12:12pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
It's better than nothing.

Hopefully you'll be one of the false positives then.
4   epitaph   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 1:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

"Non biased" political cartoon #458347698376
5   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (30)   2017 Nov 2, 4:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Poll snipers are much more practical.
6   anonymous   ignore (null)   2017 Nov 2, 4:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I think this means that all the Republican estimate of voter fraud need to be discounted by about 99%. Who knew?

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