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Tracking signs of the next recession

By Heraclitusstudent following x   2017 Nov 2, 4:50pm 760 views   36 comments   watch   quote     share  


Give it a year. Maybe less.




#investing
1 Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 4:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Have banks decided to screw Trump?

2 anon_7c0c9   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 4:55pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

I agree. We're headed into a recession either 2018 or 2019.
3 Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 4:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Going back below 2m
4 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 5:00pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says
Give it a year. Maybe less.


Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.

Looks to me like things are gonna get even better in a year or less.
5 anon_7c0c9   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 5:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Strategist says
Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.


Sounds exactly like 2007 or 1929.

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


LOL sure.
6 anon_c6b79   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 5:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Another ugly one:
7 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 6:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anon_7c0c9 says
Strategist says
Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.


Sounds exactly like 2007 or 1929.


I have an idea for you. If you are convinced the market will soon crash, just short the stock market. Buy lots of deep, out of the money, long term put options. If the crash happens you will be filthy rich.
8 Quigley   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 7:54pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Nah, @strategist these bears are just trying to influence people, they don’t actually believe their hype.

My prediction is all signs point to full economic steam ahead! Same prediction as a year ago, and though things haven’t been quite as robust as they could have been, the country has been undergoing a gradual adjustment to the new reality. As confidence continues to improve, so will investment, building things, buying things and making things. In a year there will be almost full employment and stocks continuing to rise.

Source? Everywhere I look, companies are making investments in their operations. Facilities are being improved, new equipment ordered, people hired and trained.

We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed. The last two years under Obama’s reign of stagnation were very underwhelming for growth. Most of the growth in the market happened as a matter of rebound, as markets rapidly rose to recover lost value once the system was proven to be once again stabilized. After that it was just business as usual.
9 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 8:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most.
10 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 8:05pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

Quigley says
We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed.


Thank You for stating this. I dislike his energy policies along with many others, but no President will have all the qualities we desire. Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.
11 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 8:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anotheraccount says

You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most

Someone making 100-150k should be buying 300-400k homes not 1.5 million crapshacks. What happened to the liberals tax the rich?/
12 BorderPatrol   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 8:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

they need to tax foreigners who buy properties here.
13 anon_c1985   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 2, 9:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Quigley says
We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed.


Nothing about Trump here. I'm just pointing at indicators.
Your assessment should be independent of who is in power. Otherwise that's wishful thinking.

Strategist says
Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.


The tax rewrite will be tailored to leave more to people who don't need it. It's certainly not going to help spending.
At the very least he could wait the recession to start digging the deficit hole.

And the war with North Korea is not going to help the economy. Especially if SF gets nuked.
14 Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 2, 9:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

On the bright side manufacturing looks good right now. (But wait one year)

Housing is still growing at the moment, but is so weak it won't save the economy.

15 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 2, 9:43pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anotheraccount says
Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most.


Move out of California to a state that has realistic home prices.

Problem solved!
16 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 3:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


Except they are going to the uber rich rather than the middle class.
17 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 3, 5:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

Source? Everywhere I look, companies are making investments in their operations. Facilities are being improved, new equipment ordered, people hired and trained.


—————-

Everywhere I go I see the same thing. But I also understand how long a lot of these projects take, so I know that pretty much everything I’m seeing was well in the works prior to the election a year ago
18 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 5:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

The suggestion that any company invested in new facilities, new equipment or new personnel due to Trump being elected is beyond hilarious.
19 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 7:43am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


Except they are going to the uber rich rather than the middle class.


What about the working poor who do not itemize? Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.
20 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 7:46am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anon_c1985 says
Strategist says
Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.


The tax rewrite will be tailored to leave more to people who don't need it. It's certainly not going to help spending.
At the very least he could wait the recession to start digging the deficit hole.


OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.
21 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 7:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Strategist says
What about the working poor who do not itemize? Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.


Maybe, but you're also taking away some of their exemptions along with it. I'd like to see some real scenarios to see the effects.
22 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 7:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Strategist says
A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.


Only if the cuts go to people that will spend it. Giving the 1% more money won't help the economy at all.
23 WookieMan   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 3, 8:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says
Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.

I'd go with thicker. Fat is obese. Gluttonous. You have a lot of something. I generally agree with you, but it's a rather small window of individuals. You're maybe talking $1-2K for the ones it works out best for. So I suppose they can at least put a dent in their credit card debt, right? I've got a longer post I'm drafting and thinking of putting out there on Snipers original tax thread. It's the Wookie plan.
24 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 8:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

Sniper says

What percentage of the population are in this 1% of income versus the middle class? Let's see you post this "needle" versus the "haystack" statistic.


That's the point. You're giving all the money to a very small subset of the population who doesn't need it. It won't help the economy at all.
25 HEY YOU   ignore (6)   2017 Nov 3, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Yes I read it! Don't tell other Patnetters.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-gop-tax-bill-will-impact-middle-class-and-wealthy-taxpayers-2017-11-03 " there would be very few losers in this income range."
" there would only be winners in this income range."
" there would be some losers in this income range, but mostly winners"
" Only winners here,"
" there would be very few losers in this income range."
" there would only be winners in this income range."
"there would be some losers in this income range, but mostly winners."
" Only winners,"
" Very few losers."
"Only winners."
" Only winners."
"Only winners."
" Very few losers."
" Only winners."
" Some losers but mostly winners."

Life's good with all the winning!
I'm so unappreciative.

The next marketwatch.com will tell me how we win with an increase of $1,500,000,000,000 to the national debt.

As an aside,someone needs to ask what the losers are thinking.
26 Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 3, 11:01am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anotheraccount says
You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most.


That part is undoubtedly the best part so far in the proposed law.
27 anon_c1985   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 3, 10:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says
OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.

Wasn't the latest GDP at 3%?
There is a notion of potential growth. If you try to grow faster, you create inflation, the fed come in raise rates and kill the cycle.
Thus paradoxically, a tax cut now will only hasten the recession.
28 Quigley   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 4, 5:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The way I see this tax bill, it will lower taxes for the poor, the middle class, and the rich, but either leave taxes the same or raise them on the upper middle class. I think my taxes will be either unchanged or go up a little bit under this plan.
29 Strategist   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 4, 8:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anon_c1985 says
Strategist says
OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.

Wasn't the latest GDP at 3%?
There is a notion of potential growth. If you try to grow faster, you create inflation, the fed come in raise rates and kill the cycle.
Thus paradoxically, a tax cut now will only hasten the recession.


We want our economy running at the most efficient point. It's a balancing act of maximizing GDP and employment, while keeping inflation within an acceptable range. We should be at a 4% growth rate.
30 ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 4, 9:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says
joeyjojojunior says
Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


Except they are going to the uber rich rather than the middle class.


What about the working poor who do not itemize? Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.


Not if they have or plan to have children.
31 ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 4, 9:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I'm in favor of "tax the rich" to reduce national debt or reduce poverty. Every American should have access to healthcare not only the rich. Instead GOP plans to tax the rich to hand the money up to the owner class, and make sure they keep it forever.

A higher share of the assets will be owned by the mega wealthy. Getting rich through hard work will just get harder.

In middle-class you might get a bone, save $1000 bux in taxes, then again might not. The child credit increase is for 5 years only. Single parents will lose money. Couples with 2 or more children you will lose money. In many states you will lose thousands.

The owner class that derives most of it's income from assets get a tripple windfall: asset appreciation by reducing taxes on corporate profits, a lower tax rate on capital gains, and repeal of estate taxes.
32 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 4, 10:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sniper says
It will also raise taxes on the "ultra rich" (as Joey calls them) with a new HIGHER tax bracket.


No, you're wrong again. The top bracket stays the same, but it won't matter because the ultra rich will pay the pass through tax rate of 25%, resulting in huge tax break.
33 anon_fca32   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 4, 10:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Good lord, I know you are just posting charts but you simply cannot have a recession without a lot of people losing their jobs.

Also, even if a recession does take place the price of homes in desirable areas will not magically become affordable to you.
34 just_passing_through   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 4, 12:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sniper says
Here's some "education" for you, not that you'll read it, since it's not on WaPo.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-gop-tax-bill-will-impact-middle-class-and-wealthy-taxpayers-2017-11-03


Clicked on this link yesterday while eating lunch. It loaded and some video or something similarly annoying popped up in the lower right side of the screen. I clicked the X to close it and nothing happened. I clicked again and my phone turned off. Then began rebooting over and over. Bricked it. The Sprint tech center couldn't fix it. Now I have a new damn phone.

Not sure if it was truly something on that site that got me but fair warning if you have a galaxy note 4.
35 Quigley   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 9, 1:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

No that’s the working rich who will pay the highest tax rate. The ultra rich make their money from investments and the repeal of the minimum alternative tax is a windfall for them, allowing them to (a la Donald Trump) write off business losses or expenses to the tube of ALL of their income if possible, and thus pay NO tax at all!
36 ThreeBays   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 9, 9:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sniper says
joeyjojojunior says
Sniper says
It will also raise taxes on the "ultra rich" (as Joey calls them) with a new HIGHER tax bracket.


No, you're wrong again. The top bracket stays the same, but it won't matter because the ultra rich will pay the pass through tax rate of 25%, resulting in huge tax break.


Oh Joey... why are you always wrong?

The GOP’s hidden 46% tax bracket.

House Republicans claim the tax plan they introduced Thursday keeps the top individual rate unchanged at 39.6 percent—the level at which it’s been capped for much of the past quarter-century. But a little-noticed provision effectively creates a new band in which income is taxed at over 45 percent.

Thanks to a quirky proposed surcharge, Americans who earn more than $1 million in taxable income would trigger an extr...


Moving the 39.6% bracket to one million is a $23,000 tax break. The surcharge of 6% is max $12k.

The more you know.

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