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Tracking signs of the next recession


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2017 Nov 2, 4:50pm   7,923 views  32 comments

by Heraclitusstudent   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Give it a year. Maybe less.




#investing

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1   Heraclitusstudent   2017 Nov 2, 4:54pm  

Have banks decided to screw Trump?

2   anonymous   2017 Nov 2, 4:55pm  

I agree. We're headed into a recession either 2018 or 2019.
3   Heraclitusstudent   2017 Nov 2, 4:59pm  

Going back below 2m
4   Strategist   2017 Nov 2, 5:00pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Give it a year. Maybe less.


Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.

Looks to me like things are gonna get even better in a year or less.
5   anonymous   2017 Nov 2, 5:02pm  

Strategist says
Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.


Sounds exactly like 2007 or 1929.

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


LOL sure.
6   anonymous   2017 Nov 2, 5:03pm  

Another ugly one:
7   Strategist   2017 Nov 2, 6:38pm  

anon_7c0c9 says
Strategist says
Stocks are at record highs.
GDP has expanded to 3%.
Unemployment lowest in 16 years.
Incomes on the rise.


Sounds exactly like 2007 or 1929.


I have an idea for you. If you are convinced the market will soon crash, just short the stock market. Buy lots of deep, out of the money, long term put options. If the crash happens you will be filthy rich.
8   Shaman   2017 Nov 2, 7:54pm  

Nah, @strategist these bears are just trying to influence people, they don’t actually believe their hype.

My prediction is all signs point to full economic steam ahead! Same prediction as a year ago, and though things haven’t been quite as robust as they could have been, the country has been undergoing a gradual adjustment to the new reality. As confidence continues to improve, so will investment, building things, buying things and making things. In a year there will be almost full employment and stocks continuing to rise.

Source? Everywhere I look, companies are making investments in their operations. Facilities are being improved, new equipment ordered, people hired and trained.

We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed. The last two years under Obama’s reign of stagnation were very underwhelming for growth. Most of the growth in the market happened as a matter of rebound, as markets rapidly rose to recover lost value once the system was proven to be once again stabilized. After that it was just business as usual.
9   anotheraccount   2017 Nov 2, 8:03pm  

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most.
10   Strategist   2017 Nov 2, 8:05pm  

Quigley says
We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed.


Thank You for stating this. I dislike his energy policies along with many others, but no President will have all the qualities we desire. Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.
11   lostand confused   2017 Nov 2, 8:11pm  

anotheraccount says

You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most

Someone making 100-150k should be buying 300-400k homes not 1.5 million crapshacks. What happened to the liberals tax the rich?/
12   WatermelonUniversity   2017 Nov 2, 8:32pm  

they need to tax foreigners who buy properties here.
13   anonymous   2017 Nov 2, 9:00pm  

Quigley says
We all hate something about Trump, but he’s restored confidence where it was needed.


Nothing about Trump here. I'm just pointing at indicators.
Your assessment should be independent of who is in power. Otherwise that's wishful thinking.

Strategist says
Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.


The tax rewrite will be tailored to leave more to people who don't need it. It's certainly not going to help spending.
At the very least he could wait the recession to start digging the deficit hole.

And the war with North Korea is not going to help the economy. Especially if SF gets nuked.
14   Heraclitusstudent   2017 Nov 2, 9:03pm  

On the bright side manufacturing looks good right now. (But wait one year)

Housing is still growing at the moment, but is so weak it won't save the economy.

15   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 3, 3:14am  

Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


Except they are going to the uber rich rather than the middle class.
16   anonymous   2017 Nov 3, 5:50am  

Source? Everywhere I look, companies are making investments in their operations. Facilities are being improved, new equipment ordered, people hired and trained.


—————-

Everywhere I go I see the same thing. But I also understand how long a lot of these projects take, so I know that pretty much everything I’m seeing was well in the works prior to the election a year ago
17   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 3, 5:52am  

The suggestion that any company invested in new facilities, new equipment or new personnel due to Trump being elected is beyond hilarious.
18   Strategist   2017 Nov 3, 7:43am  

joeyjojojunior says
Strategist says
Tax cuts will give a boost to growth.


Except they are going to the uber rich rather than the middle class.


What about the working poor who do not itemize? Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.
19   Strategist   2017 Nov 3, 7:46am  

anon_c1985 says
Strategist says
Right now we need a President who can solve our most important problems... North Korea, Islam, and the economy. And Trump is our man.


The tax rewrite will be tailored to leave more to people who don't need it. It's certainly not going to help spending.
At the very least he could wait the recession to start digging the deficit hole.


OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.
20   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 3, 7:48am  

Strategist says
What about the working poor who do not itemize? Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.


Maybe, but you're also taking away some of their exemptions along with it. I'd like to see some real scenarios to see the effects.
21   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 3, 7:49am  

Strategist says
A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.


Only if the cuts go to people that will spend it. Giving the 1% more money won't help the economy at all.
22   WookieMan   2017 Nov 3, 8:11am  

Strategist says
Doubling the standard deduction makes their wallets fatter.

I'd go with thicker. Fat is obese. Gluttonous. You have a lot of something. I generally agree with you, but it's a rather small window of individuals. You're maybe talking $1-2K for the ones it works out best for. So I suppose they can at least put a dent in their credit card debt, right? I've got a longer post I'm drafting and thinking of putting out there on Snipers original tax thread. It's the Wookie plan.
23   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 3, 8:56am  

Sniper says

What percentage of the population are in this 1% of income versus the middle class? Let's see you post this "needle" versus the "haystack" statistic.


That's the point. You're giving all the money to a very small subset of the population who doesn't need it. It won't help the economy at all.
24   HEY YOU   2017 Nov 3, 10:35am  

Yes I read it! Don't tell other Patnetters.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-gop-tax-bill-will-impact-middle-class-and-wealthy-taxpayers-2017-11-03 " there would be very few losers in this income range."
" there would only be winners in this income range."
" there would be some losers in this income range, but mostly winners"
" Only winners here,"
" there would be very few losers in this income range."
" there would only be winners in this income range."
"there would be some losers in this income range, but mostly winners."
" Only winners,"
" Very few losers."
"Only winners."
" Only winners."
"Only winners."
" Very few losers."
" Only winners."
" Some losers but mostly winners."

Life's good with all the winning!
I'm so unappreciative.

The next marketwatch.com will tell me how we win with an increase of $1,500,000,000,000 to the national debt.

As an aside,someone needs to ask what the losers are thinking.
25   Heraclitusstudent   2017 Nov 3, 11:01am  

anotheraccount says
You mean like getting rid of mortgage deduction over 500K for new buyers in California who need it most.


That part is undoubtedly the best part so far in the proposed law.
26   anonymous   2017 Nov 3, 10:20pm  

Strategist says
OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.

Wasn't the latest GDP at 3%?
There is a notion of potential growth. If you try to grow faster, you create inflation, the fed come in raise rates and kill the cycle.
Thus paradoxically, a tax cut now will only hasten the recession.
27   Shaman   2017 Nov 4, 5:25am  

The way I see this tax bill, it will lower taxes for the poor, the middle class, and the rich, but either leave taxes the same or raise them on the upper middle class. I think my taxes will be either unchanged or go up a little bit under this plan.
28   Strategist   2017 Nov 4, 8:56am  

anon_c1985 says
Strategist says
OK, you have a good point here. Tax cuts during a recession are more beneficial to the economy. A tax cut during lethargic growth, that we have today, will also benefit the economy.

Wasn't the latest GDP at 3%?
There is a notion of potential growth. If you try to grow faster, you create inflation, the fed come in raise rates and kill the cycle.
Thus paradoxically, a tax cut now will only hasten the recession.


We want our economy running at the most efficient point. It's a balancing act of maximizing GDP and employment, while keeping inflation within an acceptable range. We should be at a 4% growth rate.
29   joeyjojojunior   2017 Nov 4, 10:12am  

Sniper says
It will also raise taxes on the "ultra rich" (as Joey calls them) with a new HIGHER tax bracket.


No, you're wrong again. The top bracket stays the same, but it won't matter because the ultra rich will pay the pass through tax rate of 25%, resulting in huge tax break.
30   anonymous   2017 Nov 4, 10:15am  

Good lord, I know you are just posting charts but you simply cannot have a recession without a lot of people losing their jobs.

Also, even if a recession does take place the price of homes in desirable areas will not magically become affordable to you.
31   just_passing_through   2017 Nov 4, 12:31pm  

Sniper says
Here's some "education" for you, not that you'll read it, since it's not on WaPo.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-gop-tax-bill-will-impact-middle-class-and-wealthy-taxpayers-2017-11-03


Clicked on this link yesterday while eating lunch. It loaded and some video or something similarly annoying popped up in the lower right side of the screen. I clicked the X to close it and nothing happened. I clicked again and my phone turned off. Then began rebooting over and over. Bricked it. The Sprint tech center couldn't fix it. Now I have a new damn phone.

Not sure if it was truly something on that site that got me but fair warning if you have a galaxy note 4.
32   Shaman   2017 Nov 9, 1:48pm  

No that’s the working rich who will pay the highest tax rate. The ultra rich make their money from investments and the repeal of the minimum alternative tax is a windfall for them, allowing them to (a la Donald Trump) write off business losses or expenses to the tube of ALL of their income if possible, and thus pay NO tax at all!

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