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NJ and Virginia Races

By TwoScoopsMcGee following x   2017 Nov 7, 1:56pm 711 views   63 comments   watch   quote     share  


Allegedly a test of Trump, but I doubt they mean anything.

1. VA is chock full of Government Bureaucrats commuting into DC, now outnumbering the rural parts of the State.
2. NJ is a solid blue state.

Clinton won both states.

#Politics

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24 errc   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 7, 6:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Don’t blame Sessions for what?

Attempting to be Attorney General while perjuring himself over his meetings with the Russians?
25 anon_61c8a   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 6:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The lol result is that a tranny won a seat. That will sting.
26 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 7, 6:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Hillary deleted her emails after a subpeona from congress-there is no if buts about that. it is time to get a special prosecutor and the uranium one.If not he is being incompetent-when he projected to be a fighter-punch back harder kinda guy. He tweets like an opposition candidadte-do something-you are the frigging President.
27 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 8:17pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

theoakman says
Most people are voting Murphy because he's not the same team as Christie.


That's true, he's a hell of a lot WORSE.

NJ just went to the Communists.
28 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 8:20pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
Just called it. Northam

Looks like a big win

Guess all the NRA money wasn't enough


Wrong.

The people in VA didn't want a GOPe as a governor.
29 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 7, 8:22pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joshuatrio says
Christie actually appeared to do a good job at first.


Christie had a Dem controlled legislature both terms. It's amazing he got anything accomplished.

Remember all the whiners here crying that Obama couldn't get anything done because he had a Repub congress? It's the same thing.
30 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Nov 8, 12:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

TRUMPLIGULA! is doubtless Annoyed.

So Annoyed HE! will have to hit NJ and VA with his purse!

Thank GOD! AMERICA! has a PLENIPOTENTIARY! with the resolve and love of country to MAGA!
31 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 5:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Sniper says
joeyjojojunior says
Just called it. Northam

Looks like a big win

Guess all the NRA money wasn't enough


Wrong.

The people in VA didn't want a GOPe as a governor


I know reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but you agreed with my statement. So that makes me right, not wrong.

Sniper says
NJ just went to the Communists.


So, which is it piggy. Sometimes you post a weird picture stating both parties are the same, but then now you are saying Dems are Communists. Are both parties Communists then?
32 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 5:16am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The dems had a good night. I don't know if this is a trend, but at soem point, trump needs to put up or shut up about Hilalry. He hired an incompetent Jeff sessions, deal with it. I am happy with TPP, NAFTA-will wait till I see the product of renegotiation etc.

But this whole Russian thing over nothing is incompetent that he allowed to get this far-when the real collusion is the dems and Hilalry paid 9 million to collude with the Russians. If you can't get her for that and uranium one while the swamp critters have made so much ado about you-well that does not inspire much confidence.

Immigration -he really cannot give away the store for nothing. Don't come on stage with people who lost kids to illegals and say you will fix it and then turn back on promises-hat is too much emotion-heart stuff.

Healthcare-am really looking for proposals and how to get them going.

Tax cuts-ok but really disappointed that there is no releif for 8 million Americans abroad from the draconian laws Obama enacted-while giving relief to corporations-that is what you ran for-helping middle class. At least try. Obama was nasty and that only affected individuals and small business-not coporations-for Trump to do the same is just not good.

Like oBama, my expectation at this point is he needs to get down and fix it. This is not a campaign anymore and it has almost been a year-don't be tweeting about the justice dept-when it reports to you-did you forgot that is atty general you appointed?

I still like him when compared to the stupid dems who scream like banashees and have no idea, except mass immigration, feminazism etc. I weas beginning to like the dem candidate for Gov in IL and now he starts about not deporting illegals, Obamacare support and I am like -wtf. I just don't know why dems can't be logical and discuss the millions of men who are affected by divorce and child support, the hopeless, the foreign dwellers and be America first-always some ism, with them -illogical loons. Oh and higehr taxes and public sector unions are Kings and not public servants.

It is ok to get stuck and fail, but you have to recognize and change tactics-the issues that trump ran on are still valid and carry a lot of resonance and he needs to man up and get things done. Like my expectations on OBmaa-you knew what you were getting into-don't blame the dems or RINOs or justice dept for not getting things done-that is so Obama the annointed one. lets see if he has some tactics ahead ? If he doesn't change and get things doen and explain to people, I predict the stupid dems will egt elected, because the base stays awaya nd then it will be Rosie O'Donnel enslaving men and making them pull her buggy in central park.
33 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 8, 7:18am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
Wrong.

The people in VA didn't want a GOPe as a governor


I know reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but you agreed with my statement. So that makes me right, not wrong.


Joey the TROLL, I know you're a little bit slow on most topics, but I'll try and explain it to you. VA Repub voters didn't want a NeverTrumper and member of the GOPe as a governor, they wanted CHANGE, like they got with Trump. Gillespie was vocal about NOT supporting Trump, he paid the price for it. He lost by a bigger margin then Trump did in the general.
34 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 8, 7:20am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
Sniper says
NJ just went to the Communists.


So, which is it piggy. Sometimes you post a weird picture stating both parties are the same, but then now you are saying Dems are Communists. Are both parties Communists then?


Joey the TROLL, are you really this stupid or does it take years of training? You should really hold off on posting in the morning until you get your first two cups of coffee in you.
35 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 7:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Sniper says
Joey the TROLL, I know you're a little bit slow on most topics, but I'll try and explain it to you. VA Repub voters didn't want a NeverTrumper and member of the GOPe as a governor, they wanted CHANGE, like they got with Trump. Gillespie was vocal about NOT supporting Trump, he paid the price for it. He lost by a bigger margin then Trump did in the general.


Perhaps. And that agrees with my statements that Northam won. And the NRA money wasn't enough to help Republicans.

If you persist in disagreeing, please tell me what is wrong with the above statements.
36 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 8, 7:22am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

lostand confused says
The dems had a good night.


No they didn't. They won in areas where they were expected to win. Nothing to see here. There were no "surprises" in any of them.
37 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 7:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sniper says
No they didn't. They won in areas where they were expected to win. Nothing to see here. There were no "surprises" in any of them.


lol---you must be kidding. The Virginia House turning blue is a HUGE surprise.

The Georgia districts flipping blue was a big surprise. It was a blue wave yesterday.

You know it was a good night for Dems when McGee is silent during election returns. And when Gillespe underperforms even McGee's drastically lowered expectations.
38 Sniper   ignore (8)   2017 Nov 8, 7:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
lol---you must be kidding. The Virginia House turning blue is a HUGE surprise.


Really?

The polls had Gillespe ahead all the time? Can you please post those polls, it wasn't what I was seeing.
39 Rew   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 7:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

There were many candidates running on Neo-confederate Trumpisim: aka protect the statues and the other candidate wants MS-13 to come rape your daughter.

They all lost.

The Dems unseated a lost cause seat by 68 votes. 68 votes in deep red territory! Watch for voter suppression moves and calls of bused in fake votes now.

If you don't think this is a backlash against Trump, you are not paying attention.

Trump himself losing? He did that when he was sworn in. Inevitable. This is a Greek tragedy.
40 Tenpoundbass   ignore (7)   2017 Nov 8, 7:51am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

TwoScoopsMcGee says
but I doubt they mean anything.


No please let them go on. NPR said this morning.
"They won on a Anti Trump message. Should the Democrats reinforce that message in the 2018 elections?"

To which I say God Yes! Please!
41 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 7:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Rew says
If you don't think this is a backlash against Trump, you are not paying attention.

You guys have been claiming that from the day he was worn in. That is your problem. Why I still think trump will win 2nd term-you guys have a fixed narrative and try and spin everything to your narrative.
42 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Tenpoundbass says
No please let them go on. NPR said this morning.
"They won on a Anti Trump message. Should the Democrats reinforce that message in the 2018 elections?"

To which I say God Yes! Please

Yup double down on crazy and run on isms.
43 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Nov 8, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Will the JCS obey Trump's commands to nuke Newark and Richmond for treason against THE! PLENIPOTENTIARY! ?
44 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Nov 8, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Will the JCS obey Trump's commands to nuke Newark and Richmond for treason against THE! PLENIPOTENTIARY! ?
45 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Nov 8, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Will the JCS obey Trump's commands to nuke Newark and Richmond for treason against THE! PLENIPOTENTIARY! ?
46 zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2017 Nov 8, 7:56am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Pepe won an election in NJ:
47 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 8:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

There is frustration on the right-especially among the disaffected voters that carried him thorugh -on immigration, on Hillary and Russia, health etc. He needs to focus and at last push piecemeal if not giant bills just to sya he did something.
Lets see-dems will be dems-trigglypuff is their patron saint-so this is a golden opportunity. One must heed the warning sign of a less supportive base.
48 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 8:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Sniper says
The polls had Gillespe ahead all the time? Can you please post those polls, it wasn't what I was seeing


Gillespe didn't run for a House seat. He ran for Governor.
49 WookieMan   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 11:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Why is anyone trying to extrapolate anything out of these races, local races in NJ and Virginia?
joeyjojojunior says
It shows that the special election results from earlier in the year were pretty good foreshadowing for what was really going on in the electorate.

In hindsight, sure. And if the '18 midterms have different results, was it foreshadowing then? No, not in hindsight. These elections mean nothing for what is coming in 2018. For either side. These are local races that have local influences that are not necessarily a part of national politics. Virginia governors don't decide trade policy and don't vote on it.

You can always bend data whatever way you want, but these elections yesterday have nothing to do with the coming elections for house and senators in 2018. So I'll call it the way I see it. Every single comment on this thread is a complete and utter waste of your time. It's your time, so I don't particularly care, but for some of you it seems like this election yesterday actually matters for future elections. It doesn't.
50 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 11:16am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

WookieMan says
You can always bend data whatever way you want, but these elections yesterday have nothing to do with the coming elections for house and senators in 2018. So I'll call it the way I see it. Every single comment on this thread is a complete and utter waste of your time. It's your time, so I don't particularly care, but for some of you it seems like this election yesterday actually matters for future elections. It doesn't.


Actually history has proven they do. You can believe it or not, but data has shown they do.

Now--I agree a year out is a long time and things may change, but if the political environment looks similar to the way it does now, you can be pretty sure that the results will be similar to yesterdays.
51 anon_313db   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 11:18am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

zzyzzx says
Pepe won an election in NJ:


Eta zhaba vsem nadoyela uzhe! Nikto ne hochet smotret na etu leguzhku. Mozhet na pive budet polagatelno, a v politike ona bred sivoi kobile.
52 anon_313db   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 11:21am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

lostand confused says
trigglypuff


Trigllypuff should be a defensive lineman for cleveland browns!
54 anon_313db   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 11:40am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says
She is SO! IMMENSE!


How does one get to be so immense? Is it secret death wish or something?
55 WookieMan   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 11:40am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says

Actually history has proven they do. You can believe it or not, but data has shown they do.

I'm not being a smart ass, seriously. I've never seen any correlation between a governors race in New Jersey and Virginia being extrapolated to a national level for house members and senators a year in advance. It doesn't make sense. I'd love to see the stats from 4 years ago for these same governors races and how it foreshadowed anything in the 2014 midterms. I'm not certain that history does prove any correlation.

If there's some massive shift to either side in the coming midterms, I can come back to this story and use it as foreshadowing. Dems didn't win by as much as they should have, so the Repubs took more seats. Dems won these elections and that's why they won more seats in the midterm. That's why I say this (yesterdays) election means nothing. You can spin it anyway you like based on past events and still be right.

They're two completely different entities, with completely (or should be) different messages as gubernatorial candidates vs. the candidates in the midterms. This goes for others here on the other side saying the dems were supposed to win. Who gives a shit. You can say Dems were supposed to win by X margin and they didn't so that's telling you something. It isn't. Stop fooling yourself.

As with most things in modern political history, it's more about looks and the ability to convey a message. 80% of voters don't understand anything about government. So they go with the guy/gal that can smooth talk and looks decent or who's on their social agenda side. I don't know what CA house or senate seats are open, but you can bet your ass if George Clooney jumped in the race he'd win. I don't think anyone could argue that.

So what happens a year from now, not knowing all the candidates for those elections, and making any predictions based on yesterdays results, seems rather stupid to me. And I'm not directing that at anyone one user, just anyone thinking that yesterday mattered for the 2018 midterms. Hell any future election for that matter. In closing, I'll just say this, 2016.
56 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 11:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

WookieMan says
I'm not being a smart ass, seriously. I've never seen any correlation between a governors race in New Jersey and Virginia being extrapolated to a national level for house members and senators a year in advance. It doesn't make sense. I'd love to see the stats from 4 years ago for these same governors races and how it foreshadowed anything in the 2014 midterms. I'm not certain that history does prove any correlation.


No obviously one governor's race didn't predict a wave in the next year's elections. (although I'd argue that Scott Brown's election as senator from Mass. ~a year after Obama was elected was a pretty good foreshadow for what was to come in the mid-terms) But we've seen a mountain of data showing the country's sentiment has changed. To ignore it all and say it's meaningless is tantamount to sticking one's head in the sand.
57 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 11:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Here's another good article with a deeper dive:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fundamentals-favor-democrats-in-2018/
"But we didn’t need Tuesday night to prove that the national environment was good for Democrats; there was plenty of evidence for it already. In no particular order of importance:
President Trump’s approval rating is only 37.6 percent.
Democrats lead by approximately 10 points on the generic Congressional ballot.
Republican incumbents are retiring at a rapid pace; there were two retirements (from New Jersey Rep. Frank LoBiondo and Texas Rep. Ted Poe) on Tuesday alone.
Democrats are recruiting astonishing numbers of candidates for Congress.
Democrats have performed well overall in special elections to the U.S. Congress, relative to the partisanship of those districts; they’ve also performed well in special elections to state legislatures.
The opposition party almost always gains ground at midterm elections. This is one of the most durable empirical rules of American politics."
58 WookieMan   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 12:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

joeyjojojunior says
To ignore it all and say it's meaningless is tantamount to sticking one's head in the sand.

I'm not saying it's completely meaningless. You can always find meaning in any election or hell any event. It's just how much meaning do you put behind it? Me, not very much on this topic.

I vaguely recall you may be from or have lived in IL (could be thinking of someone else). Rauner won in IL two years prior as a Republican governor (2014). 2 years later Trump lost by 15 points in the Presidential election in IL. I'll concede that Trump knew IL wasn't a likely win for him, so he obviously didn't spend much time here. IL is generally a democratic party controlled state. But Tammy Duckworth defeated the incumbent, Republican Mark Kirk, the same year as Trump won the presidential election.

So IL thought a Republican governor was good in 2014 and then, at least regarding the senate seat, thought the democrats were better on a statewide level or had better turnout, etc. Rauner may have been an influence on that. Who knows maybe Trump was during the election. The fact is an entire state voted one way for a governor and on the federal level went the other way over an incumbent Republican (who obviously had some flaws having a stroke and all).

I guess what I'm getting at is state politics are vastly different then federal politics. IL has bounced all over the last 3-1/2 years or so and I don't think you honestly would base anything off results in IL and then say that could happen nationally. You'd likely wait and see as it gets closer. I have no problem throwing out theories on what could happen. But too much here seems to be anchored in these results that really have little bearing on the midterms.

Unless you're really into Virginia and New Jersey state level politics, and understand the nuances and can extrapolate those to a national level, I really don't think the results yesterday mean much.
59 Rew   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 12:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

lostand confused says
You guys have been claiming that from the day he was worn in. That is your problem. Why I still think trump will win 2nd term-you guys have a fixed narrative and try and spin everything to your narrative.


If you think getting voter turn out levels to that of a Presidential election is explained away by a desire for me/others to fit a narritive ... (shrug)

What do you explain the voter turn out by? This was an epic ground game win, and the Dems are refining off this now for 2018.
60 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 1:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

WookieMan says
Unless you're really into Virginia and New Jersey state level politics, and understand the nuances and can extrapolate those to a national level, I really don't think the results yesterday mean much.


Yep, I understand your point--I'm just saying that people have looked at it and found that there is a pretty good correlation.
61 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Nov 8, 2:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

anon_313db says
APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says
She is SO! IMMENSE!


How does one get to be so immense? Is it secret death wish or something?


She is the kind of CANNIBAL! who doesn't even both tearing the clothes off of her victims.
62 lostand confused   ignore (0)   2017 Nov 8, 2:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Rew says
If you think getting voter turn out levels to that of a Presidential election is explained away by a desire for me/others to fit a narritive ... (shrug)

A broken clock can be right twice.
WE shall see, if this is a flash in the pan-but in your case, nothing changes-day 1 from Trump's election-same, same same-the boy who creid wolf too many times.
Every little incident is proof of your narrative being true. me-meh-I will wait and see.
63 TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2017 Nov 8, 5:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Tenpoundbass says
"They won on a Anti Trump message. Should the Democrats reinforce that message in the 2018 elections?"


I guess let them have their "victory", which was a continuation of the status quo. Democrats won Governorships in two Blue States, that both went for Hillary in 2016. Shocking Transformation!

Not the first time we've witnessed Blue arrogance just before doom, aka Hubris. Remember "The Week" cover cartoon that predicted the opposite of what happened.

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