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follow Onvacation 2017 Dec 27, 6:38pm
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3 I can assure you that I am not confused.
theory is the way to prove science, this predictive theory has failed, therefore I reject your future predictions.
I have heard multiple speakers claim adding CO2 to the atmosphere increases crop yields.
It's a projection range of what will happen based on what is known
Seriously? Have you looked at the temp/ice levels graphs posted above on this thread?
show me specific scientific papers making crazy predictions.
You do know that chaotic systems
2 degrees and a foot are NOT catastrophic
Weather is chaotic. Climate is not necessarily. Equating the two is a basic misunderstanding of some of the deniers. When they make such claims, they betray massive ignorance.
Catastrophic is a rhetorical term that you use either because you are too lazy to quantify things or you are purposefully making vague statements so that you can shift around according to the argument at hand.
Are You not aware of the butterfly in China theory?
That is why I wrote that climate models are not necessarily chaotic.
Chaos theory can be seen from only a few nonlinear equations, so I'm sure that some climate models are chaotic. However, a simple one does not have to be.
Even a decade is harder to predict for various reasons. This is all explained here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade
Do you really think a chaotic non linear system like climate can really be predicted with a "simple" model?
So why did the temp stop rising even though the models predicted exponential rise?
Do you still insist that climate and weather are the same? If not, what do you think the difference is?
Onvacation saysSo why did the temp stop rising even though the models predicted exponential rise?It's covered in the article.
that's an educated guess and not backed by experience or data.
Weather is what we have every day. Climate is the history of weather.
Climate is a statistical characterization of weather over time.
Are you saying that climate is the history of weather?
Over a very long period, you can predict what the average of a bunch of stocks will return. This allows for things like planning for retirement. Being able to plan for retirement does not mean that you can predict the daily returns on stocks over a 30 yr period. Similarly, any given year might return something far outside of that range. Do you understand that?
Deniers are typically conspiracy theorists. They believe that climate change due to CO2 is a government conspiracy.
2 degrees and a foot are NOT catastrophic and alarmist models do NOT predict the future.
Michael Mann s hockey stick.
I gave you a coin flip analogy.
You do know that chaotic systems like weather are almost impossible to model ?Don't you?
Because - My God - following that train of thoughts is way to painful to contemplate.
What is the ideal temp for human habitation?
What do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?
a coin flip is simple to model.
Why don't you predict the outcome of 20 coin flips.
Really? Why don't you predict the outcome of 20 coin flips. Tell us the sequence of heads and tails that will result. Then do the experiment and let us know how you do.
Onvacation saysWhat do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?Holy crap lol
I said a coin toss was simple to model. I didn't say the model could predict.
anon_13e7f saysDeniers are typically conspiracy theorists. They believe that climate change due to CO2 is a government conspiracy.Most people aren't deniers, but there are a large category of skeptics who ask very good questions that for some reason get ignored by the Climate Change cult.
Since we have proven the greenhouse effect takes place,
Do you admit that it is very difficult to accurately predict the sequence, but easier to predict the number of heads for a given number of tosses? In fact over the long term, the prediction becomes very accurate.
Flipping a coin illustrates the difference between a statistical characterization of results and a sequence of events.
The statistical characterization is easier to predict than the sequence.
But saying that you cannot predict all of the coin flip results does not mean you cannot predict the number of heads. Same goes for the climate.
What makes you think anyone can create a model to predict climate a century, a decade, or even 5 years from now?
You still don't see to understand statistics,
have a nice day.
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW saysIf you don't understand this, then neither of us will learn anything from each other, so I'm pulling the plug on my half of this conversation. I understand. This is exactly what iwog and dan from Florida did when they were losing the global... climate change debate.
If you don't understand this, then neither of us will learn anything from each other, so I'm pulling the plug on my half of this conversation.