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Questions for the true believers

By Onvacation following x   2017 Dec 27, 6:38pm 15,846 views   417 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


#politics
How much has the temp and sea level risen in the last hundred years?
How much did the temp rise between 2015 (2nd hottest year) and 2016 ( hottest year EVER)?
How can they measure such a small increase over the entire globe?
If the earth is warming why is the hottest temp ever recorded over a century old?
What is the ideal temp for human habitation?

Still waiting for answers to these important questions.

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378   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 7:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Onvacation says
Are You not aware of the butterfly in China theory?

I've been aware of it since the early 90s, when I read Gleick's book. I also encountered it in a few graduate level courses. That is in reference to weather, not climate. Chaos theory can be seen from only a few nonlinear equations, so I'm sure that some climate models are chaotic. However, a simple one does not have to be. That is why I wrote that climate models are not necessarily chaotic. The longer the modeling term is, the less relevant the chaotic terms are. Trying to be accurate in the short term requires better modelling chaotic things like how many forest fires are their going to be next year or what year is a specific glacier going to melt.
Year to year variations are not predictable by climate models. That is why the whole argument about 0.04 degrees from one year to the next not being significant was meaningless. Even a decade is harder to predict for various reasons. This is all explained here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade
379   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 7:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
That is why I wrote that climate models are not necessarily chaotic.

Not necessarily?
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Chaos theory can be seen from only a few nonlinear equations, so I'm sure that some climate models are chaotic. However, a simple one does not have to be.

Do you really think a chaotic non linear system like climate can really be predicted with a "simple" model?
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Even a decade is harder to predict for various reasons. This is all explained here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade

So why did the temp stop rising even though the models predicted exponential rise?
380   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 8:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
Do you really think a chaotic non linear system like climate can really be predicted with a "simple" model?

It depends on what the goals of the model are. Do you still insist that climate and weather are the same? If not, what do you think the difference is?
Onvacation says
So why did the temp stop rising even though the models predicted exponential rise?

It's covered in the article. Sometimes it's easier to predict short term (weather) and sometimes it's easier to predict longer term and trends (climate). I believe that quantifying longer term change is complicated more so by predicting emissions than response, but that's an educated guess and not backed by experience or data.
381   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 9:49am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Do you still insist that climate and weather are the same? If not, what do you think the difference is?

Weather is what we have every day. Climate is the history of weather. Both are constantly changing.
Do you have a better definition?
382   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 9:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Onvacation says
So why did the temp stop rising even though the models predicted exponential rise?

It's covered in the article.

Condense it for me.FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
that's an educated guess and not backed by experience or data.

I see.
383   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 10:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
Weather is what we have every day. Climate is the history of weather.

Climate is a statistical characterization of weather over time. By analogy, if you flip a coin 1000 times, climate tells you that you will get about 500 heads. Weather tells you what each flip is. Yes, the history of weather can be used to calculate climate, but if you know climate, you can not calculate weather. Same holds for coin flips.
384   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 10:29am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says

Climate is a statistical characterization of weather over time.

Are you saying that climate is the history of weather?
385   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 10:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
Are you saying that climate is the history of weather?

No. A history of weather is a history of weather.

Climate is a statistical characterization of weather. This isn't hard. I gave you a coin flip analogy. Here is a stock analogy. You can predict roughly that stocks values increase roughly exponentially with a long term annual return of 6-8%. Over a very long period, you can predict what the average of a bunch of stocks will return. This allows for things like planning for retirement. Being able to plan for retirement does not mean that you can predict the daily returns on stocks over a 30 yr period. Similarly, any given year might return something far outside of that range. Do you understand that?
386   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 10:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Over a very long period, you can predict what the average of a bunch of stocks will return. This allows for things like planning for retirement. Being able to plan for retirement does not mean that you can predict the daily returns on stocks over a 30 yr period. Similarly, any given year might return something far outside of that range. Do you understand that?


According to climate "scientist", the hundreds of billions they wanted for the Paris Accords would not have done anything anyway. According to them by 2100 we get less than 2/10 of ONE degree "cooling" at the cost of TRILLIONS over a century, if we kept up with the accords.

Seems like if climate scientist are correct, we really can't change much with our current technology.
387   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Jan 11, 10:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Deniers are typically conspiracy theorists. They believe that climate change due to CO2 is a government conspiracy.

Most deniers also believe in other conspiracies, such as 9-11 was an inside job, Sandy Hook was faked, etc. It's a waste of time trying to change the mind of someone who doesn't think rationally.
388   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 11:01am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

anon_13e7f says
Deniers are typically conspiracy theorists. They believe that climate change due to CO2 is a government conspiracy.


Most people aren't deniers, but there are a large category of skeptics who ask very good questions that for some reason get ignored by the Climate Change cult.
389   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 11, 12:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
2 degrees and a foot are NOT catastrophic and alarmist models do NOT predict the future.


Why are you talking of 2 degrees?
We will get 3, 4, 5...10 degrees... etc... it doesn't stop until WE stop.
390   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 11, 12:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
Michael Mann s hockey stick.


Did he mention this in a scientific paper? Or while trying to convey the point that this is serious shit that ought to be taken seriously?
And btw it looks more and more hockey-sticky.
391   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 12:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
I gave you a coin flip analogy.

a coin flip is simple to model. The climate is virtually impossible to model. Too many variables, chaotic, and too many unquantified feedback mechanisms.
392   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 11, 12:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Onvacation says
You do know that chaotic systems like weather are almost impossible to model ?
Don't you?


Now you show how far out of your depth you really are.
Do you know that a 3 bodies system in the gravity theory is already a chaotic system?
By your argument, we can't predict the path of this planet or a satellite in the solar system.
The reality is of course that this is described down to the picosecond by the equations of gravity.

Now if you take the climate, which is supposed to stay constant (quite a chaotic system) at human time scale, and you add large quantities of heat year after year after year, what is the result? You can't tell because "it's chaotic"? What kind of moronic argument is that?

This is the typical type of specious argument that we get from the new obscurantists. "You can't possibly know anything" they tell us. "It's too complex!"
The reality of course is that they don't WANT to know. They want to keep their heads deep in the sand and they want everyone to do the same.
Because - My God - following that train of thoughts is way to painful to contemplate.
393   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 12:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

Heraclitusstudent says
Because - My God - following that train of thoughts is way to painful to contemplate.

thanks for making the point that even believers of God like you can still be caught up in the global warming alarmist cult.

Back to the original questions:Onvacation says
What is the ideal temp for human habitation?

I think a little warmer (1 or 2 degrees like during the Roman warming period)and a little more co2 would be good for life on earth. Unfortunately it looks like the current warming is peaking out and the world is heading into a cooling trend.

Time will show whether we are getting warmer or colder.

I have faith in humanity and think we will adapt to whatever the ever changing climate throws at us.
394   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 12:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

What do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?
395   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 11, 1:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
What do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?


Already answered. Repeating the same questions over and over does nothing to reassure us about your mental health.
Since we have proven the greenhouse effect takes place, where do you think the energy is going and what will make it miraculously go away?
396   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 1:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
a coin flip is simple to model.

Really? Why don't you predict the outcome of 20 coin flips. Tell us the sequence of heads and tails that will result. Then do the experiment and let us know how you do.
397   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 11, 3:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Why don't you predict the outcome of 20 coin flips.


That's easy. They will not all be heads. And not all be tails. Except one time out of 1,048,576, on average.
398   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Jan 11, 3:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
What do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?


Holy crap lol
399   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 6:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Really? Why don't you predict the outcome of 20 coin flips. Tell us the sequence of heads and tails that will result. Then do the experiment and let us know how you do.

I said a coin toss was simple to model. I didn't say the model could predict.
The climate is extremely difficult to model, some would say impossible, and to predict accurately based on an inaccurate model; the best you can hope for is a toss of the coin.
400   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 6:06pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote        

errc says
Onvacation says
What do you think the ideal temp for human habitation on earth is?


Holy crap lol

How hot is "holy crap"?
401   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 11, 6:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Onvacation says
I said a coin toss was simple to model. I didn't say the model could predict.

Do you admit that it is very difficult to accurately predict the sequence, but easier to predict the number of heads for a given number of tosses? In fact over the long term, the prediction becomes very accurate.
402   MrMagic   ignore (9)   2018 Jan 11, 6:55pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (4)   quote        

Goran_K says
anon_13e7f says
Deniers are typically conspiracy theorists. They believe that climate change due to CO2 is a government conspiracy.


Most people aren't deniers, but there are a large category of skeptics who ask very good questions that for some reason get ignored by the Climate Change cult.


Exactly..

Skeptics don't drink the kool-aid and question statements not supported by true data, and don't rely on fudged models that are designed with a specific endpoint in mind.
403   MrMagic   ignore (9)   2018 Jan 11, 6:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (4)   quote        

Heraclitusstudent says
Since we have proven the greenhouse effect takes place,


How will the "alarmists" stop water vapor from being created? Is there a model for that?
404   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 14, 9:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says

Do you admit that it is very difficult to accurately predict the sequence, but easier to predict the number of heads for a given number of tosses? In fact over the long term, the prediction becomes very accurate.

How does flipping a coin have anything to do with predicting the future?
Never mind, I get it. The future can't be predicted.

We can hope for the best and prepare for the worst but we have a much better chance of predicting the weather 2 weeks from now than the climate 2 decades from now. Any predictions on February 1 weather? You're guessing.

Now why wont anyone, besides dan from Florida, make a statement on what earth's ideal temp should be?

I say a couple of degrees warmer like the Roman warming period.

If you can't say what would be good how can you say warming is bad?
405   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 15, 12:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Flipping a coin illustrates the difference between a statistical characterization of results and a sequence of events.
The number of heads in a group of coin flips and the average weather (climate) represent a statistical characterization of a series of events. The actual sequence, which is a list of coin flips or a series of daily weather events is the sequence. The statistical characterization is easier to predict than the sequence. If you don't understand this, then neither of us will learn anything from each other, so I'm pulling the plug on my half of this conversation. If you do understand it, then you will have to admit that failure to predict weather does not mean that we cannot predict climate. It is simply easier to predict climate than weather.
406   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 15, 12:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
Flipping a coin illustrates the difference between a statistical characterization of results and a sequence of events.

Flip a coin, heads. Flip it again, tails. It's still a flip of a coin. Can you say a thousand coin flips will turn out to be evenly distributed? How many coins do you have to flip before FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
The statistical characterization is easier to predict than the sequence.


Ultimately it's a flip of the coin. Easy to model as there is one binary variable. Heads or tails.
The weather, and thus the climate, has countless multi-valued variables, and unknown feedback effects.

Would you say someone was naive to think they could accurately predict how many heads they will turn out of 1,000,000 flips of a coin? What makes you think anyone can create a model to predict climate a century, a decade, or even 5 years from now?
407   Onvacation   ignore (2)   2018 Jan 15, 3:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
But saying that you cannot predict all of the coin flip results does not mean you cannot predict the number of heads. Same goes for the climate.
Onvacation says
What makes you think anyone can create a model to predict climate a century, a decade, or even 5 years from now?


It's nothing real world like flipping a coin
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
You still don't see to understand statistics,

Just because you are on the steep part of some natural cycle does not mean it's the asymptote of an exponential phenomenon. Hope you get the reference.
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
have a nice day.

Thank you very much. You too.

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