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The stock market could crash if Donald Trump is elected president (from Nov 2016)

By rando following x   2018 Feb 13, 10:45am 1,164 views   24 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-could-crash-if-donald-trump-is-elected-2016-10-31
With the United States’ presidential election on Nov. 8, and a series of elections and other political decisions fast approaching in Europe, now is a good time to ask whether the global economy is in good enough shape to withstand another major negative shock.

The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise — like the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. — would likely cause the stock market DJIA, +0.23% to crash and plunge the world into recession.

...

Trump promises to boost U.S. growth immediately to 4%-5%, but this is pure fantasy. It is far more likely that his anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing.

In fact, the impact of a Trump victory on the U.S. could well be worse.


Wow, they were so so wrong that they should publish an apology to the people who were scared away and lost out on the second-best stock market year ever for a new president by articles like that.

They did publish the facts recently:

Gains on Wall Street were so big, in fact, that they stand as the best first-year return for a new president in decades.

In the year since Trump’s inauguration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.17% rose 32.1%. That calculation covers the period from the close of trading on Jan. 19, 2017—the final trading day before his inauguration—and the close of trading on Friday, Jan. 19, 2018. The actual anniversary was Saturday.

That 32.1% gain is the second-best of any president in the Dow’s history. In first place is Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who saw the blue-chip average nearly double over the first year of his first term.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-performance-in-trumps-first-year-was-second-only-to-fdr-2018-01-16
1   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 13, 11:02am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

It’s called market confidence.
Obama’s first year also saw a large rise in the DOW, but that wasn’t as impressive since it was essentially a rebound from an extreme low after the 2008 crash. That rebound was already in progress when Obama took office. Historically, every big crash has been accompanied by a rebound which takes place over the following year, as investors regain confidence.

Conversely, the Trump market rally was preceded by a gradually increasing market which had been subject to no big sell-offs. That makes it all the more impressive, as it can be considered an HONEST expression of confidence in the new POTUS. They say the most sincere form of appreciation is a paycheck, and the most sincere expression of confidence is eager investment.
2   TwoScoopsOfWompWomp   ignore (2)   2018 Feb 13, 11:07am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Patrick says
Trump promises to boost U.S. growth immediately to 4%-5%, but this is pure fantasy. It is far more likely that his anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing.


Wow, multiple lies. The British experienced a sharp uptick in GDP growth in 2016, and were almost #1 in G-8 GDP growth, edged out by one-tenth of 1% by Germany. Almost a third of that growth in the last few months of 2016, well after Brexit vote. 1.8% UK vs. 1.9% Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/26/uk-gdp-figures-2016-brexit-economy
3   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Feb 13, 11:09am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Silly them, without a Chart it can't happen.
4   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Feb 13, 11:26am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

Quigley says
Obama’s first year also saw a large rise in the DOW, but that wasn’t as impressive since it was essentially a rebound from an extreme low after the 2008 crash. That rebound was already in progress when Obama took office. Historically, every big crash has been accompanied by a rebound which takes place over the following year, as investors regain confidence.


In Obama's case, it took until 2013 for the market to just gain back what was lost and get to break even, before it grew higher. It took an injection of TRILLIONS in QE to boost it back up.

Quigley says
Conversely, the Trump market rally was preceded by a gradually increasing market which had been subject to no big sell-offs. That makes it all the more impressive, as it can be considered an HONEST expression of confidence in the new POTUS.


Exactly, there was no influence of QE and printed money to help push it higher, just confidence.
5   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Feb 13, 11:26am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

Patrick says
They did publish the facts recently:

Gains on Wall Street were so big, in fact, that they stand as the best first-year return for a new president in decades.

In the year since Trump’s inauguration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.17% rose 32.1%. That calculation covers the period from the close of trading on Jan. 19, 2017—the final trading day before his inauguration—and the close of trading on Friday, Jan. 19, 2018. The actual anniversary was Saturday.


The facts they didn't include was what the market did from Nov. 9th through Jan. 19th. It had a BIG gain after he won, where the "experts" stated it would crash at least 1000 points.

If you look at the chart for 2016 up to the election, it was a flat line, and only jumped up the last two months after he won.
6   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 11:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Where are the regular Trump bashers?
Crawl out from under that bed and face us like real men.
7   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 11:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

So, you're telling me that passing a tax law giving corporation billions of dollars, taking all the power away from the CFPB, stopping enforcement of all EPA regulations, and then passing a huge budget busting budget caused stocks to go up???

Who would ever have guessed???
8   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 11:45am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_8f378 says
So, you're telling me that passing a tax law giving corporation billions of dollars, taking all the power away from the CFPB, stopping enforcement of all EPA regulations, and then passing a huge budget busting budget caused stocks to go up???

Who would ever have guessed???


Stocks started going up well before all that. It was confidence in Trump my friend, something that Obama lacked.
9   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 12:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
Where are the regular Trump bashers?
Crawl out from under that bed and face us like real men.


Real men pay with cash,no debt.
It's a pity that some gamble against the latest algorithms to try and make a few dollars.
Everyone talks about how great the market is but never mentions the actual dollar gain or loss.

Trump is a five time draft dodging coward,admitted sexual harasser,pedophile supporter,adulterer.
What kind of slime would vote for this trash?

Yesterday,I really pissed off a Red Neck White Trash Republican when I told him this.
And of course he had NOTHING! in response but to storm off with a red face.
Snowflake!
10   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 1:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
Stocks started going up well before all that. It was confidence in Trump my friend, something that Obama lacked.


It was confidence that he would pay the Republican tax reform giving corporations billions of dollars. Confidence that he would gut all regulations.

Basically confidence that he would screw over Joe Q Public in favor of John Q Moneybags. Which he has proven to be correct.
11   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 1:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

sorry pay = pass.
12   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 3:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

anon_8f378 says
Basically confidence that he would screw over Joe Q Public in favor of John Q Moneybags. Which he has proven to be correct.


So, does that mean the additional money Joe Q Public is seeing in his paycheck this week really doesn't exist?

Those are FAKE dollars?
13   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 3:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_be320 says
Trump is a (litany of rationalizations here).
What kind of slime would vote for this trash?


Everyone who could clearly see that Hillary is much worse.
14   jvolstad   ignore (0)   2018 Feb 13, 4:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I wonder if Bill would be wearing a French Maid Outfit by now if Hillary would have won?

15   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 5:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Yesterday,I really pissed off a Red Neck White Trash Republican when I told him this.
And of course he had NOTHING! in response but to storm off with a red face.
Snowflake!


That's big talk for someone using an "anon" handle.
16   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 5:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

jvolstad says
I wonder if Bill would be wearing a French Maid Outfit by now if Hillary would have won?


Yup, it would have been Bill's turn to stay home and vacuum the White House while Hillary is out selling access.
17   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Feb 13, 5:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_49c66 says
So, does that mean the additional money Joe Q Public is seeing in his paycheck this week really doesn't exist?

Those are FAKE dollars?


Nope--that extra $1 per paycheck that Paul Ryan famously tweeted could pay for a yearly Costco membership is real.
18   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 7:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_be320 says
Strategist says
Where are the regular Trump bashers?
Crawl out from under that bed and face us like real men.


Real men pay with cash,no debt.
It's a pity that some gamble against the latest algorithms to try and make a few dollars.
Everyone talks about how great the market is but never mentions the actual dollar gain or loss.

What the market does, is what is relevant, not what an individual or Strategist does.

anon_be320 says
Trump is a five time draft dodging coward,admitted sexual harasser,pedophile supporter,adulterer.
What kind of slime would vote for this trash?

No one cares. Country comes first.

anon_be320 says
Yesterday,I really pissed off a Red Neck White Trash Republican when I told him this.
And of course he had NOTHING! in response but to storm off with a red face.
Snowflake!

Ha ha ha. Yesterday I made $5 billion.
19   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Feb 13, 7:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anon_8f378 says
Strategist says
Stocks started going up well before all that. It was confidence in Trump my friend, something that Obama lacked.


It was confidence that he would pay the Republican tax reform giving corporations billions of dollars. Confidence that he would gut all regulations.

Basically confidence that he would screw over Joe Q Public in favor of John Q Moneybags. Which he has proven to be correct.


Did you forget to check Joe Q Public's 401K? Shame on you.




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