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DOW Jones prediction thread


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2018 Feb 21, 1:05pm   13,168 views  54 comments

by lostand confused   ➕follow (3)   💰tip   ignore  

So looks like the FED released their minutes from jan and market is starting to go down.

I expect the correction to go down deeper-perhaps at least 22,000+

The last one was savage -2 1000 point dips and then a furious 6 day rally-but a lower top.

I am wondering are we looking 22,000+ and then resume or a larger term decline?

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1   Tenpoundbass   2018 Feb 21, 1:25pm  

12K before the 2020 elections.
But the economy will be booming for the Middle Class and small businesses. The Investor class that got their asses handed to them will be roiling and concocting new ways get a Hillary Obama elected to get the graft going again.
2   RC2006   2018 Feb 21, 2:01pm  

It cant just keep going up. I moved 80% out of stocks last month I'm thinking a 10k correction is coming.
3   anonymous   2018 Feb 21, 2:42pm  

Dow will reach 30 000 late this year or beginning of next one. Than I am out
4   mell   2018 Feb 21, 2:44pm  

30k before any significant correction unless there is a big economical downturn which is currently not in sight. Rates will keep rising slowly.
5   Shaman   2018 Feb 21, 2:51pm  

There’s no reason for a drop beyond skepticism and being “afraid” of a number. Money is finding its way to the stock market. More money than ever before. Unless there are alternative investment vehicles in significant quantities to replace the stock market as a means to wealth, it will continue to draw investors and continue to rise as the money supply does. Retirement vehicles like pensions and 401k, Roth’s IRAs, etc will continue to grow, dumping money into the market as they do.

There’s just no reason to cry havoc, which means there’s no reason for a sustained drop.
6   Malcolm   2018 Feb 21, 4:00pm  

Quigley says
There’s just no reason to cry havoc, which means there’s no reason for a sustained drop.


Do any of you actually understand how to put a value on a stock based on earnings and other fundamentals?
7   mell   2018 Feb 21, 4:09pm  

Malcolm says
Quigley says
There’s just no reason to cry havoc, which means there’s no reason for a sustained drop.


Do any of you actually understand how to put a value on a stock based on earnings and other fundamentals?


Yeah, but the P/E ratios vary widely depending on the economic cycle. Currently we haven't left the boom cycle yet, which was about to end but got unexpectedly prolonged by Trump's election.
8   Malcolm   2018 Feb 21, 4:15pm  

mell says
Yeah, but the P/E ratios vary widely depending on the economic cycle. Currently we haven't left the boom cycle yet, which was about to end but got unexpectedly prolonged by Trump's election.


If people are investing in companies with P/E ratios that are 3 figures, I would strongly suggest that they go onto YouTube and watch an old Coyote and Roadrunner cartoon. You are pretty much standing on air, just like the coyote when he holds up a sign that says "Yikes."

When you buy a stock, you are buying a piece of a company, you are not guessing what a trend is doing. If people insist on overpaying for stocks, like they are with houses, please don't expect any sympathy. There are too many investors who are too young to have ever seen a bear market. Those guys can expect a large leftover credit card bill on top of their defaulted student loans.
9   lostand confused   2018 Feb 21, 5:03pm  

Malcolm says

When you buy a stock, you are buying a piece of a company, you are not guessing what a trend is doing

Well, yes, but you can sell that stake the next second. Trends are important. The stake of the company you bought for 1 dollar can become 1000 dollars or the stake you bought for 1000 dollars can be worth zero.

Companies can write off your stake or just close shop .
10   lostand confused   2018 Feb 21, 5:43pm  

Plus the rally from the bottom of 2008/2009 I think DOW was at 6,000+ and reached 26,000+. That is a pretty impressive run.
11   bob2356   2018 Feb 21, 5:54pm  

Malcolm says
Quigley says
There’s just no reason to cry havoc, which means there’s no reason for a sustained drop.


Do any of you actually understand how to put a value on a stock based on earnings and other fundamentals?


That kind of rationality is frequently missing in the stock market. The big elephant in the room is the tax cut. A lot of money is going to be looking for a home.starting pretty much right now. Lot's of stock buybacks, lots of dividends. It's got to go somewhere.
12   anotheraccount   2018 Feb 21, 7:22pm  

bob2356 says
The big elephant in the room is the tax cut. A lot of money is going to be looking for a home.starting pretty much right now. Lot's of stock buybacks, lots of dividends. It's got to go somewhere.


It's a race. Many companies already announced stock buybacks and they are not going to be buying a huge supply of treasuries that's a result of the tax cut. Can interest rates get high enough to force stock market revaluation?
13   anotheraccount   2018 Feb 21, 7:28pm  

Malcolm says
Do any of you actually understand how to put a value on a stock based on earnings and other fundamentals?


Most people on this board don't even know what market cap is.
14   Strategist   2018 Feb 21, 7:50pm  

bob2356 says
Malcolm says
Quigley says
There’s just no reason to cry havoc, which means there’s no reason for a sustained drop.


Do any of you actually understand how to put a value on a stock based on earnings and other fundamentals?


That kind of rationality is frequently missing in the stock market.


That kind of rationality does not work. If it did, all those Harvard trained money managers would be beating the S&P 500, but 95% of them can't.
Stock picking is more of an art than a science.
15   MrMagic   2018 Feb 21, 7:56pm  

lostand confused says
Plus the rally from the bottom of 2008/2009 I think DOW was at 6,000+ and reached 26,000+. That is a pretty impressive run.


Remember, the DOW was at 14,000 before it crashed down, so before you can bank any gain, it has to get back to break even. For anyone who was in the market pre-2008, they had to wait until 2013 before breaking even, then from 2014 to 2016 (trump's election) the market barely moved and went side ways. You had a 8,000 point gain since Trump's election, before this latest correction.
16   Y   2018 Feb 21, 7:59pm  


anotheraccount says
Most people on this board don't even know what market cap is.
17   Jimbo in SF   2018 Feb 21, 8:23pm  

I went to cash this week.

I feel a combination of QT (reverse QE) and rising interest rates will cause headwinds.

I feel like I need a 6 month break from the markets.

Time will tell.
18   Shaman   2018 Feb 21, 8:54pm  

Strategist says
Stock picking is more of an art than a science.


And so far I’ve been pretty much smack on the money when it comes to general market trends. I even called the 2008 crash (and put my money in bonds at end of 2007) and the subsequent rally once bottom was found. Stock markets aren’t rational, they’re trendy and they’re dependent on the worst kind of group-think. If you want a recent example, I called the rebound off the dip a few weeks ago.
19   Strategist   2018 Feb 21, 8:57pm  

Quigley says
Strategist says
Stock picking is more of an art than a science.


And so far I’ve been pretty much smack on the money when it comes to general market trends. I even called the 2008 crash (and put my money in bonds at end of 2007) and the subsequent rally once bottom was found. Stock markets aren’t rational, they’re trendy and they’re dependent on the worst kind of group-think. If you want a recent example, I called the rebound off the dip a few weeks ago.


You outperformed the so called best stock pickers out there. Yet they get to make the big commissions.
20   bob2356   2018 Feb 22, 5:26am  

Strategist says

That kind of rationality does not work. If it did, all those Harvard trained money managers would be beating the S&P 500, but 95% of them can't.
Stock picking is more of an art than a science.


The word you are looking for is gamble, not art.
21   anonymous   2018 Feb 22, 10:04am  

and in other news, the DOW is UP +250 right now.
22   lostand confused   2018 Feb 22, 11:00am  

anon_cf6c6 says
and in other news, the DOW is UP +250 right now.

I don't think this will crash now. But it has been a spectacular straight up run, so just wondering if this correction is done or becaus eof the speed of the correction and subsequent rush up, will it unwind a few months?
23   anonymous   2018 Feb 22, 7:33pm  

Rule of investing: buy cheap with safety margin and sit on it and collect dividend. this is wealth creation.

Rule of gambling: 5% win, 95% lose. This is wealth transfer.

FED says, everything has zero yield, everything must be expensive. So I can NOT invest.

I am also NOT smart enough to be the 5% in the gambling game.

Fortunately, I do know how to do my W2 job and I do it better than others.

So I will earn my living until it gets cheap. Before then, I am just the idiot being screwed by low rate and inflation. Ben and Yellen spent years forcing me to play a game I am NOT good at. I am stubborn. But until I am sure I am the 5% gambler, I will NOT play their game.
24   Shaman   2018 Feb 22, 7:39pm  

Strategist says
Stock picking is more of an art than a science


That’s because the stock market fluctuates based on human nature, and the people most qualified to understand human nature are not scientists. They are artists and shamans, and always have been.
25   mell   2018 Feb 26, 11:47am  

Dow in range of all-time high again. Will cross it soon.
26   lostand confused   2018 Feb 26, 12:27pm  

Yeah looks likely. The speed of the correction was very fast, I thought it would consolidate a bit before pushing higher-oh well !
27   anonymous   2018 Feb 26, 1:33pm  

lostand confused says
I thought it would consolidate a bit before pushing higher-oh well !


Doom cancelled!

DOW closes up just shy of +400 points.
28   lostand confused   2018 Mar 1, 11:42am  

Looks like a nice drop today, lets see where it ends up. I still think 22k or 23k and grind around for sometime before it resumes its climb. That was a very swift drop for it rise and go as if nothing happened. Lets see.
29   anonymous   2018 Mar 1, 11:58am  

lostand confused says
Looks like a nice drop today, lets see where it ends up. I still think 22k or 23k and grind around for sometime before it resumes its climb. That was a very swift drop for it rise and go as if nothing happened. Lets see.


I think we could drop to 21k area even into the 20’s
30   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Mar 1, 12:17pm  

Steel and Aluminium tariffs announced today, because it's ridiculous how much a nation with so much material abundance that used to make ludicrous amounts of the stuff at home, imports from abroad, many of whom dump like crazy with subsidized production costs behind it.

Some of the Fugitive Traitors ("Free Traders") drove the market down 500pts, but no biggie.
31   lostand confused   2018 Mar 1, 4:02pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Steel and Aluminium tariffs announced today, because it's ridiculous how much a nation with so much material abundance that used to make ludicrous amounts of the stuff at home, imports from abroad, many of whom dump like crazy with subsidized production costs behind it.

Some of the Fugitive Traitors ("Free Traders") drove the market down 500pts, but no biggie.

I am definitely glad he is finally doing things on trade that nobody has done in decades. But market wise, just thinking it might go down and form a new base, before taking off again.
32   Booger   2018 Mar 1, 4:18pm  

lostand confused says
just thinking it might go down and form a new base, before taking off again.


I also think that this is a buying opportunity. Have no fucking idea what to buy though.
33   HappyGilmore   2018 Mar 1, 5:48pm  

For the record:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-266-duty-on-some-chinese-steel-imports-1456878180

Its been 2 years since the last tariff was slapped on Chinese steel imports.
34   just_passing_through   2018 Mar 1, 9:14pm  

Booger says
Have no fucking idea what to buy though.


Persian Red Saffron?
35   NuttBoxer   2018 Mar 2, 11:36am  

Over half of it's peak value, will drop to around 10,000 this year.
36   lostand confused   2018 Mar 23, 12:55pm  

Interesting-looks like it is coming down to the 22k level-but some pretty fast drops. Wonder if it will recover fast or push sub 20??
37   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Mar 23, 1:46pm  

Lots of bad news: Facebook Drama, Crashing AI Cars, and of course the CoC Suckers aren't happy with protecting US IP and balancing the Trade Deficit against high Chinese Tariffs (and other measures).
38   mell   2018 Mar 23, 2:13pm  

I think there will be a big snap back but the chances of breaching 20k definitely have surpassed the chances of 30K. At least in terms of volatility 2018 predictions have been proven right, almost anybody I think predicted volatile markets. 2017 and below were volatility snooze-fests.
39   MrMagic   2018 Mar 23, 2:35pm  

Sadly, the market is now only up 25% since Trump won, versus being flat the last two years of Obama (after his "recovery").

I'm crushed.
40   Patrick   2018 Mar 23, 2:44pm  

Malcolm says
If people insist on overpaying for stocks, like they are with houses, please don't expect any sympathy.


@Malcolm I totally agree. Stocks and houses both have underlying values which are not that hard to estimate. If you pay more than that underlying value, you're merely guessing, not really investing.

The value of a stock is in its earnings (hopefully reflected in dividends).
The value of a house is in what you could rent it out for. Or put another way, how much rent you can save.

The calculations can get complex when you try to take all the details into account, but the fact remains that earnings determine value for both stocks and houses.

I'm not going to try to predict the Dow, I'm just going to hold my good-value stocks, and maybe buy more of them. As Saint Warren likes to say, when the market drops, that just means that stocks are on sale and there are bargains to be had.

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