1
0

Fermi Paradox


 invite response                
2018 Feb 23, 9:46am   4,757 views  30 comments

by MisdemeanorRebel   ➕follow (12)   💰tip   ignore  

Where are all the aliens?

Do intelligent civilizations wipe themselves out before achieving Intersolar Spaceflight?
Is Intelligent life rare?
Are the civilizations "Hiding"?
Are the civilizations using something other than radio transmissions?

What do you think?

#Science #FermiParadox

Comments 1 - 30 of 30        Search these comments

1   mell   2018 Feb 23, 10:04am  

Occams razor - they're simply too far away even for advanced travel.
2   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 23, 10:15am  

They're all hiding on patnet.
3   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 23, 10:29am  

mell says
Occams razor - they're simply too far away even for advanced travel.

They don't leak radio waves, because they have fiber-optic Internet.
4   Ceffer   2018 Feb 23, 10:39am  

I have seen UFOs twice, so I believe in some kind of "other intelligence". I wouldn't expect anybody who hasn't seen these objects to believe in them.

If any of the alien sightings are true, they are likely bio-formed robots designed for our planetary conditions. Any life form we see could be a combination of earth DNA, alien DNA and alien tech so that they could adapt and function here. The hosts may be some form of life or intelligence we can't imagine, operating at least partially with telepathy and mental radiometrics, if they are even that curious to explore our galactic area or motivated to go to that much trouble.

If they have been able to conquer space and time, they are unlikely to be constrained by lowly motives of tribalism, resources, hierarchy, reproduction and territoriality, so most anthropomorphizing as is done in religion is likely just as inappropriate in trying to understand alien entities.

However, insect colonies survive by having multiple nests in different resource areas. Some or many colonies can be wiped out and the insects survive. Colonization is a species survival instinct, even if it results in the death of many explorers. It is only natural that life anywhere would continue to colonize and establish many fronts of survival, even if the individual nests eventually differentiate away from each other.

The excellent SyFy show "The Expanse" explores human differentiation in our own solar system with colonization of Mars and the asteroid belt. Even after this "local" differentiation and space tribalism, they wind up being confronted by a powerful, amporphous alien entity.
5   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 23, 12:05pm  

Independently of whether we see them, which require interstellar travel, we should be able to detect their radios, which we don't.
But we are leaking less and less radio ourselves.

Next is to observe exoplanets and measure things like oxygen, which could betray a presence of life.
6   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 23, 1:27pm  

I heard an interesting point the other day about colonizing planets.

"If we have the ability to build interstellar or even interplanetary ships that can carry 100s of people for months, why bother landing and terraforming? Just colonize space except for a few mining or tourism spots."

Personally I believe:

* Meeting or surpassing the Speed of Light is impossible (which doesn't make interstellar exploration/colonization impossible, just slower)
* Intelligent Life is rare (we're the only ones in ~3B years of Life, or at least the only ones to prosper)
* FTL Communications are impossible, also.

If we can get fusion, though, the galaxy is our oyster.
7   Patrick   2018 Feb 23, 1:52pm  

It's entirely plausible that some subspecies of dinosaurs became advanced enough to create things such as screws before dying out. After a few hundred million years, there would not be a lot left from our own culture either. Organics rot, metals rust.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3030781/Is-300-million-year-old-SCREW-Group-claims-proof-aliens-living-Earth-scientists-say-s-just-fossilised-sea-creature.html (one in Russia)

https://ancient-code.com/a-300-million-year-old-screw-embedded-into-rock/ (one in China)
8   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 23, 2:06pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says

* Meeting or surpassing the Speed of Light is impossible (which doesn't make interstellar exploration/colonization impossible, just slower)
* Intelligent Life is rare (we're the only ones in ~3B years of Life, or at least the only ones to prosper)
* FTL Communications are impossible, also.


I would say given a planet with water, carbon, and minerals and stable enough conditions, life will happen.
Given stable enough conditions, it will evolve toward intelligence.
Stability is the key. One asteroid and we're gone.

As it turns out most stars have planets, many in liquid water zone.
9   Ceffer   2018 Feb 23, 3:22pm  

The "speed of light" is likely a local condition of time and space, rather than a galactic requirement or a requirement of the universe. Science is already discovering linkages that indicate that information can be transferred intact across space with simultaneity. Lumps of life and vehicles are just big lumps of information of a particular form. The speed of light could be like your 25 MPH zones in your local solar neighborhood, whereas space and time might be more like an autobahn that has many faster capabilities, if not instantaneous transfer.
10   Bd6r   2018 Feb 23, 3:43pm  

Patrick says
It's entirely plausible that some subspecies of dinosaurs became advanced enough to create things such as screws before dying out. After a few hundred million years, there would not be a lot left from our own culture either. Organics rot, metals rust.

I was thinking along the same lines. If we would die out, how could we tell in 100M years that there was a civilization?
Ancient code article though is very suspicious - they say that scientists were not able to determine chemical composition of the artifact, which is preposterous. Determining composition of something is extremely simple these days.
11   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 23, 5:54pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Given stable enough conditions, it will evolve toward intelligence.


I agree with you in suspecting abundant life, but I'm not so sure that intelligence is at all common.

And the form of intelligence may not lead a species to develop technology or be so bizarrely different from ours their motives would be inscrutable.

Of course, we have a sample size of one.
12   HowdyThere   2018 Feb 23, 8:16pm  

During a chat with Gordon Shumway, he made it abundantly clear that there is no such thing as extra-terrestrials. We're the first to achieve this level of advancement anywhere in the universe. When we visited the Pope, he whole heartedly agreed. End thread.
13   Bd6r   2018 Feb 24, 7:17am  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
I agree with you in suspecting abundant life, but I'm not so sure that intelligence is at all common.

Single-cell life is probably nearly everywhere; I would not be surprised if it was on Mars at some point, or if it still is on some satellites of Jupiter. Multi-cellular life is probably much less common as it requires much more time to develop, and intelligent is even more rare. On Earth, single-cell life developed instantly (on geologic time scale) after Earth somewhat cooled down and then existed for billions of years until multi-cellular one developed ca. 600M yrs ago. Having said that, we have a lot of stars/planets so that chance of intelligent life developing elsewhere is extremely high.

However, there are interesting questions that need to be answered: what happens if civilization develops beyond what we have now? We can define civilization as accumulation, storage, and transmission of information - this is what we have been doing in past. At some point perhaps humans will not be needed for that, if we build intelligent machines. At that point (besides us losing any reason for existence), perhaps flight of a few hundred years to next stars becomes OK as the machines will not be subjected to aging. May be what we see as UFO's is something of that type - automated probes from closest stars. Flight to Alpha Centauri or Barnard's star would take on the order of 50-100 years with nearly current technology.

This is a quite interesting topic to think and BS about.
14   Shaman   2018 Feb 24, 7:50am  

Consider this: a supernova happens when a star collapses, and generates a radiation wave so powerful it can sterilize life from all planets in a 100 light year radius. The oldest stars are the most likely to supernova. The space with the most stars is most likely to be impacted by supernovas.
Therefore, only the space at the outside edge of the galaxy where stars are thinnest and newest is likely to have the time necessary between supernova events for life to achieve intelligence.

It’s sort of like the Fermi paradox, but with more physics.
15   anonymous   2018 Feb 24, 8:53am  

Heraclitusstudent says


Next is to observe exoplanets and measure things like oxygen, which could betray a presence of life.


This comment makes me think. I've been watching a lot of Blue Planet II on PBS. Currently they are deep underwater videoing the life in the black thermal vents and the white chimneys which survives on no sunlight.

More amazing are these huge "methane oceans" hundreds of miles wide at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. The dense methane forms a clearly visible basin which splashes as eel species dart in and out of it. The basin is bordered by huge colonies of mussels who use the methane. The mussels allow for starfish and other simple life to thrive there.

It's interesting to think none of these forms of life were thought to exist 30 years ago. I remember reading about them when discovered, but seeing all this in depth with deep water cameras is astonishing.
16   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 24, 10:20am  

drB6 says
This is a quite interesting topic to think and BS about.

Agreed.

Quigley says
It’s sort of like the Fermi paradox, but with more physics.


Definitely a Fermi Filter, and since the bulk of stars are closer to the Galactic Center, it would explain a great deal.
17   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 24, 10:23am  

anon_06ed3 says

More amazing are these huge "methane oceans" hundreds of miles wide at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. The dense methane forms a clearly visible basin which splashes as eel species dart in and out of it. The basin is bordered by huge colonies of mussels who use the methane. The mussels allow for starfish and other simple life to thrive there.

It's interesting to think none of these forms of life were thought to exist 30 years ago. I remember reading about them when discovered, but seeing all this in depth with deep water cameras is astonishing.


The Black Sea - which was the Black Valley when Homo Sapiens was walking the Earth and possibly as recently as 15,000BC - is also an interesting body of water. 90% anoxic by value, beginning below about 100m or so, almost no interchange.
18   Patrick   2018 Feb 24, 10:29am  

drB6 says
We can define civilization as accumulation, storage, and transmission of information - this is what we have been doing in past. At some point perhaps humans will not be needed for that, if we build intelligent machines. At that point (besides us losing any reason for existence), perhaps flight of a few hundred years to next stars becomes OK as the machines will not be subjected to aging. May be what we see as UFO's is something of that type - automated probes from closest stars.


OK, this idea is kind of far out (pun intended) but might it be possible to transmit self-replicating information without physical machines as space probes?

Maybe just the right pattern of cosmic rays or other electromagnetic or gravitational wave has the potential to land somewhere and cause a reaction capable of starting life, or maybe creating something capable of gathering yet more information from subsequent transmissions, building on itself.
19   Bd6r   2018 Feb 24, 10:41am  

Patrick says
OK, this idea is kind of far out (pun intended) but might it be possible to transmit self-replicating information without physical machines as space probes?

Maybe just the right pattern of cosmic rays or other electromagnetic or gravitational wave has the potential to land somewhere and cause a reaction capable of starting life, or maybe creating something capable of gathering yet more information from subsequent transmissions, building on itself.

Interesting. This is somewhat chemically complex but I will try my best to explain the idea. Many molecules that we consist of can exist as pairs of mirror images, and nearly always only one of that type of mirror image molecule exist in us and all other living organisms. Similar molecules found in meteorites coming from outer space also are enriched in that particular mirror image. Which kind of says that it is very possible that Earth was seeded by life early after its development. There is not agreement yet as to why this enrichment in meteorites is observed.
20   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 26, 12:07pm  

Some Fermi Paradox filters:

Location Filters
* Near Galactic Center with frequent flares/pulsar proximity/massive objects flying around smashing into things
* Older Stars are lower metallic stars generally speaking

Rare Earth Filters:
* Most Earths might be huge - high gravity. Biased right now since we only have the ability to easily detect large extrasolar planets.
* Oxygen too low (unable to "power" high energy demanding brains) or Oxygen too high (Most viable rocket fuels would vaporize their surroundings)
* Few have substantial Plate Tectonics (Recycling matter, creating land on a watery world, creating a reasonable magnetosphere to keep out radiation, Atmosphere maintainance - see Mars)
* Eccentric Orbit (massive temperature and solar radiation changes over an orbital year)

Rare Intelligence Filter:
* Intelligence is Rare
* Intelligence is not rare but will to technology or ability to manipulate objects or seaborne intelligence
* Intelligence is not rare but the interest in Space Travel is non existent.
* Intelligence on a World that isn't conductive to concentrations of intelligent life (ie a World with too powerful Plate Tectonics that discourages city building)

Wild:
* We live in a simulation that somebody left running on some basement machine in the Meta-verse. "Human Fortress" aka "Sheldon's Server"
21   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 26, 12:12pm  

I think FTL is impossible however, or we'd have been visited by a least probes or some other object(s). Perhaps on a regular basis like several per year, unless many Fermi Filters are in place to make life very rare and very far apart.
22   RC2006   2018 Feb 26, 12:27pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
I think FTL is impossible however, or we'd have been visited by a least probes or some other object(s). Perhaps on a regular basis like several per year, unless many Fermi Filters are in place to make life very rare and very far apart.


At least we are getting close to FTL communications, once that happens a lot of other techs will rapidly advance.
23   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 26, 6:37pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
I think FTL is impossible however, or we'd have been visited by a least probes or some other object(s). Perhaps on a regular basis like several per year,


In which case, maybe now the probes saw us and reported us, and add a few hundred/thousand years of signaling and space travel, and the aliens will be here in person to say helllooooo.
24   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 26, 6:38pm  

RC2006 says
At least we are getting close to FTL communications, once that happens a lot of other techs will rapidly advance.

FTL communications will not happen, until you believe in communication backward in time.
25   RC2006   2018 Feb 26, 7:14pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
RC2006 says
At least we are getting close to FTL communications, once that happens a lot of other techs will rapidly advance.

FTL communications will not happen, until you believe in communication backward in time.


https://phys.org/news/2017-08-bell-prize-scientists-spooky-quantum.html
26   Y   2018 Feb 27, 12:01pm  

Jesus did it all and all speculators are doomed to hell.
27   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Feb 27, 12:37pm  

RC2006 says

https://phys.org/news/2017-08-bell-prize-scientists-spooky-quantum.html

Yeah well, if you think you can transmit information non-locally instantly, then why not in the past?
How about emailing your past self the winning lottery number?
28   Patrick   2018 Feb 27, 12:54pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
* FTL Communications are impossible, also.


I had to look up FTL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_communication
29   Shaman   2018 Feb 27, 3:23pm  

Patrick says
OK, this idea is kind of far out (pun intended) but might it be possible to transmit self-replicating information without physical machines as space probes?


That’s pretty far out there, and I haven’t a clue how it might work. However, consider Von Neumann Probes! An AI robotic spacecraft with capacity of building more spacecraft like itself could populate the galaxy in an expanding wave of AI bots which talk to each other and relay information about the universe to us. It could also (with such capacity to make more like itself, or any other thing) be responsible for discovering planets for humanity to colonize, and preparing the way through colony facilities erection and even terraforming actions.
And being independently guided, it could make all decisions for itself. Of course, each unit of itself would also have independent will. It would be interesting to see how that played out.
30   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 27, 3:27pm  

"Spooky Action at a distance" is pretty spooky.

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions