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follow Patrick 2018 Mar 1, 12:37pm
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The Great Senior Sell-Off and the Housing Crash of 2020Nelson’s argument is a straightforward one:In the last 20 years, 77 percent of new housing construction demand came from baby boomers, who sought large-lot, single-family homes in suburban locations.And that disproportionate demand, Nelson says, has created an imbalance of supply. Very few starter homes were constructed in that time period, and sans a few of the nation’s growing metro areas (Atlanta and Dallas, for instance), many of the U.S.’ housing markets will face what Nelson calls “the great senior sell-off,” where 1.5 to 2 million senior-owned properties will hit the market every year at the end of the decade – and there will not be enough buyers to absorb that supply.The reason for that is two-fold: one, 74 percent of new housing demand will come from baby boomers looking to downsize; and two, though there are plenty of Echo Boomers looking to buy large single-family homes, a quarter of that generation wants to buy condos or urban townhouses, which represents a radical shift in homebuyer interest. “[That demand] used to be almost zero percent, and if it’s now 25 percent, that’s a small share of the market, but a huge shift in the market,” Nelson told Atlantic Cities. “Even if the numbers matched, the preferences don’t.”
Realtors fuck with the data all the time.
The typical wages here in Taco Town do not support the high prices.
Interesting that Case-Shiller shows that the SF Bay Area housing market has had pretty shitty returns on average over the last decade, only 2.93%... While the rate of return for the stock market has been 8.21% over the last 10 years.
Among the 100 largest cities in the US, where did home prices soar the fastest over the past five years since 2012? No, it wasn’t San Francisco or any of the other housing markets where you need to have a top-notch income to buy a starter shack. And in five of these cities, home prices surged over 100% since the fourth quarter of 2012:
I get the strong impression that sales are very slow in the SF Bay Area as well, but don't have any good source of true sales volume data. Realtors fuck with the data all the time. I need something more objective, like the Case-Shiller Index.