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follow tovarichpeter 2018 Mar 16, 7:26am
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The world is now approaching that magic level, thanks to a phenomenon known as the fertility transition. In most countries, total fertility falls from a high level of about six or seven children to two or below, and stays there. Once smaller families become the norm in a country or region, they very rarely go back up. There are a number of theories for why this happens. The shift from agriculture to urban life means less incentive for families to have kids to work on farms. Urban life also increases the cost of raising a kid. Higher education levels for women, freeing them from traditional gender norms, are probably a big factor as well. Importantly, none of these factors are temporary.
Many African countries have a fertility near 7 kids by women. Even if it falls, populations will still go up as people live longer. 5 billions in Africa means destabilizing waves of migration. 11 billions in the world means massive destruction of ecosystems, and sensitivity to climate change, plagues and other problems. Population is still by far the largest issue we are facing this century.
Africa except some countries birthrate is going down too. Plus AIDS/HIV-in some countries 20-25% have them -it brings down mortality.
The opposite problem of falling or stagnating population is also an economic and societal challenge.
Why? The USA was prosperous when we were at 200 million and Europe, Oz, Canada, NZ all prospered with lower populations. The only issue with the "deflation" is debt.
HeadSet saysWhy? The USA was prosperous when we were at 200 million and Europe, Oz, Canada, NZ all prospered with lower populations. The only issue with the "deflation" is debt.This is a bizarre comparison. The population and economy were growing when we were at 200 millions. Going back means a shrinking economy. Unless we have real AI.
Projections are still up to 5 billions in Africa at the end of the century.