patrick.net

I’ve compiled the following graph to pose the question, and prompt debate: should forward HPAs (i.e. annualized home price appreciation rates) converge across regions?

The graph stitches together year-on-year (YOY) price differences both between the CME Case Shiller home price index futures contracts and historical Case Shiller indices, as well as between futures contracts. ...

While recent momentum, local wealth creation (e.g. in SFR (San Francisco) on tech stocks), and possibly inventory shortage, have pushed expected YOY gains in some regions to higher levels than average (i.e. SFR and LAV (Las Vegas)), by Nov ’19 all YOY gains converge to just above 2.0%.