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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 5,606 views   378 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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339   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 9:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
I'd rather just let the outcome change your mind.


lol we'll see.

So far, for those taking score:

- 2 SCOTUS picks (3rd one coming when Ginsburg dies)
- 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments coming next week.
- Senate lost for the foreseeable future (GOP should pick up 2 seats easy, possibly 4 if closer races pan out).
- Tax Reform
- NAFTA reformed
- Trump immigration ban upheld in SCOTUS
- Individual mandate dead
- Lowest black and hispanic unemployment in decades

I'm not saying the House is 100% going to stay in the hands of the GOP (it's only happened 4 times before for incumbents), but I honestly can't find any significant victories for your Democrat friends in 20 months. Can you?

My feeling is the Kavanaugh smear job fired up the base just in time for the midterms (mail ballots are already in voter hands). This could be like Comey's FBI bomb shell on Hillary one week before the 2016 election.

We will see Marcus. Whatever the result, I hope you don't leave and stick around to chat about it.
340   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 10:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
70 doesn't equal 99. Hopefully you know that.


Surely you understand hyperbole when mocking a position, yes?

Nate Silver had Hillary at 86% this date in 2016. He his final prediction was 302 electoral votes, just about the opposite of the actual outcome.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

And the NYT at 85% and HuffPo at 98.1% is all but "Guaranteed Win".

Show me one Mainstream Media Outlet that wasn't all but guaranteeing a Hillary Victory. Right here on this board, Trump supporters were being mocked for even bothering to contest the election given such overwhelming numbers.
341   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 13, 3:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Nate Silver had Hillary at 86% this date in 2016. He his final prediction was 302 electoral votes, just about the opposite of the actual outcome.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


The guy is a fraud. Adding statistics to something doesnt male his process a formula. All he did was look for figures which supported his bias.

I'd suggest the best political dipstick of public support is enthusiasm at events. Compare a Trump rally to anything HRC or any other politician's humble crowds in comparison.
342   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 13, 4:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am predicting 56 senate R seats and hang on tot he house at 230+ R. All because of Dianne Fienstein and Avenatti!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
343   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 6:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I like this wager book idea, though I have to think about the legal issues and payment issues.


If you like your wager book, you can keep your wager book. Until you voted Republicans into power and they banned it, as I’ve posted numerous times

I’d kill for my old ascii art ‘memes’ as they were so much better than the kindergarten crap you see today

Here we need the one of the guy burying his head in his hand in frustration and disgust
344   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 6:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

A “wager book” like I’ve suggested is not an idea.

It’s just another in a long list of examples of Freedoms and Liberties we’ve lost under Republican rule.

Back when i was into professional wagering, a mentir of mine had 300k on Obama winning the 2008 election at something like an average price of-120
345   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 6:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Saturdays used to be much more fun and exciting. I participated in a group where we would demolish the books with ncaafb underdog money lines. Comparing what we were able to do in the early oughts(aughts?) vs. Today it’s laughable

Ncaabb totals, tennis and WNBA were the other three honey pots.

We were human arbitrage bots before arb bots were a thing.

My favorite bet ever was the first Patriots Super Bowl. It was virtually risk free and it ended up paying out five figures.

By scraping props at competing shops, we found conflicting propositions that were correlated

WILL THERE BE A MISSED FG
YES +120
NO -100

WILL VINATIERI MISS A FG
YES -120
NO +100

So we were betting max bets on the YES for a missed FG with NO for a Pats missed FG.

Rams opening drive was stopped at like the 37 and they attempted a long FG which missed so the doir was open and all we needed was the Pats not to miss a FG. Tom Brady wound up winning his first Super Bowl 20-17 as Vinatieri nailed an ~ 50 yarder as time expired ftw. I lost a +2200 prop on Overtime, but the icing on the cake was the inflated WILL THE GAME BE DECIDED BY EXACTLY 3 points, which was +350.

I miss those good old days. Thanks again, Republicans! For desecrating the Flag by stealing our Freedoms and Liberties
346   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 6:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
cmdrdataleak says
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.


I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.

Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.

I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.


I’m the one who suggested the Skin In The Game because right wingers have been talking so much shit with no skin in the game.

Yet y’all don’t seem so confident if you’re offering only + ev. odds on your “bold prediction”

Par for the course with Right Wingers though
348   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 13, 8:24am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
349   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 9:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
flag


Lol @Patrick thank you for the mods protecting our Free Speech forum
350   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 13, 9:22am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Quoted from wikileadia.

Aphroman says

I’m the one who suggested the Skin In The Game because right wingers have been talking so much shit with no skin in the game.

Yet y’all don’t seem so confident if you’re offering only + ev. odds on your “bold prediction”


Ok. According to historical trends, losing 30 seats in house and 4 seats in Senate is typical for 1st midterm election.

I'll bet you $500 that the dems do worse than this in both. The dems BOTH gain less than 4 Senate seats AND gain less than 30 House seats.
351   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 13, 9:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says

Ok. According to historical trends, losing 30 seats in house and 4 seats in Senate is typical for 1st midterm election.


That was before all the districts were gerrymandered.
352   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 10:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wow LeonDurham must be using a lot of personal attacks, much worse than the right wingers, for all of his posts to very importantly be censored.

@Patrick we should start a tip jar so people can thank the mods for all the work they do to better the site
353   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 10:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If we’re doing even money bets, I’ll hedge my investments with 25k on the GOP traitor Pete Sessions
354   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 13, 10:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
LeonDurham must be using a lot of personal attacks, much worse than the right wingers


Yes, this does seem to be true.
355   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 13, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says

Yes, this does seem to be true.


OK please help me. What was personal? So I can avoid it in the future.
356   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 13, 11:22am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I didn’t see the posts that were flagged but in general anything that can be construed as a personal insult, it’s getting flagged.

So saying “Trump cultist usually say something like you said”, yeah that’s borderline personal. I usually let those fly but I can see if other mods nuke those kind of comments.

So to be on the safe side, keep everything non-personal.
357   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 13, 11:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I didn’t see the posts that were flagged but in general anything that can be construed as a personal insult, it’s getting flagged.

So saying “Trump cultist usually say something like you said”, yeah that’s borderline personal. I usually let those fly but I can see if other mods nuke those kind of comments.

So to be on the safe side, keep everything non-personal.


But accosting Liberals and blaming them for all your failures and then labeling a poster as said liberal is not? Weird
361   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 14, 7:58am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I still don't get it why wear vaginas on your head? Do you want someone to screw your head?
362   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 14, 8:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
I still don't get it why wear vaginas on your head? Do you want someone to screw your head?


Maybe their heads bleed easy.
364   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 14, 8:22am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
I'll bet you $500 that the dems do worse than this in both. The dems BOTH gain less than 4 Senate seats AND gain less than 30 House seats.


This can’t be explained by average data. This time in politics is unprecedented. We’ve never had a party behave this badly and it be so evidenced by such a wide range of media. You’d have to be willfully blind and deaf to miss the absolute attack on our very nation that the Democrats have launched. They’re trying to kill the patient to cure the “disease” of conservative thought. The closest analogue was Lincoln’s election pre-Civil war and there was nothing like the media presence then as we have now.
366   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 14, 12:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says

This can’t be explained by average data. This time in politics is unprecedented.


Yeah I know. That's why these blue wave expectations seem ridiculous.

If I had real balls I'd hit marcus's 26 seat bet.

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/4214/How-many-House-seats-will-Democrats-hold-after-2018-midterms seems to be about a 55:45 bet in your favor
367   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 14, 1:20pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am growing to think that my prediction is overly cautious. This might be a REAL grab-your-ankles spanking for the Democrats.
Men are done with the Democrats and their feminazi allies who can accuse, try, and convict you in the court of public opinion before you say anything at all.
It’s better to be single than with a feminist. Any man with balls will now understand this as they tipped their hand with the Kavanaugh Kangaroo Kourt. The goal is obviously male slavery, no objections allowed! And men are walking away.

Women who don’t want to become cat ladies had better reform pretty darn quick. In five years, the only feminists in sight will be aging harridans with ten cats, a pussy hat, and a bull-dyke horn.
368   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 14, 1:23pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
It’s better to be single than with a feminist

A simple solution is Mexican-American girlfriend. Not to be raycist, but feminism crap is usually spewed by white, middle-class or rich womyn from coasts. Have yet to hear that type of garbage from a normal Hispanic woman.
369   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 15, 1:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Have yet to hear that type of garbage from a normal Hispanic woman.

Kamala Harris?
370   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 15, 1:50pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
Kamala Harris?


Harris was born on October 20, 1964, in Oakland, California, to a Tamil Indian mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris (1938–2009), and a Jamaican father, Donald Harris.
371   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 15, 2:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
HeadSet says
Kamala Harris?


Harris was born on October 20, 1964, in Oakland, California, to a Tamil Indian mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris (1938–2009), and a Jamaican father, Donald Harris.


Thanks.
372   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 15, 2:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
Quigley says
It’s better to be single than with a feminist

A simple solution is Mexican-American girlfriend. Not to be raycist, but feminism crap is usually spewed by white, middle-class or rich womyn from coasts. Have yet to hear that type of garbage from a normal Hispanic woman.


Spanish broads are usually pretty Conservative, usually dictated by however much silly religion their parents subscribe to
373   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 15, 2:39pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
Spanish broads are usually pretty Conservative, usually dictated by however much silly religion their parents subscribe to

That is part of it, another part is that the culture is very family-oriented. Someone here noted that one sees nearly no Hispanic homeless, which is extension of the same.
374   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 15, 5:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Show me one Mainstream Media Outlet that wasn't all but guaranteeing a Hillary Victory. Right here on this board, Trump supporters were being mocked for even bothering to contest the election given such overwhelming numbers.


just fyi-I did, but someone obviously doesn't want the truth to be visible so all my posts were flagged.
375   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 15, 6:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

@tatupu70 can you point me to a flagged post or comment?
376   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 16, 6:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
@tatupu70 can you point me to a flagged post or comment?


Why are you so afraid to keep a transparent log that shows who marked what as personal, and which mod approves the personal attacks levied by the right wingers against their “enemies” that they restore?

Because that level of transparency will prove the point a handful of us have been making since you picked the far right wing mods to run any political opponents from the Free Speech site?
377   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 16, 8:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.


This is what happens when people are forced to put Skin in The Game. They blow a lot of hot air, until the rubber meets the road, then they go back crying to mommy. It's pathetic.
378   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 16, 8:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
@tatupu70 can you point me to a flagged post or comment?


Yes I'd like to see the flagged comment as well. I browsed the moderation queue yesterday and this morning, I never saw any of these supposed "unfair" flagged posts.

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