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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 1,942 views   93 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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54   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
So you picked a single url? How about a url that shows ALL of the polls together?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

You see, that is a chart which includes all existing polls and polling data. The trend has been un-changed more or less for over a year and the GOP has lagged behind an average of 5-6 points, which statistically is huge. But by all means- keep believing in what you want to. Maybe since you're so confident maybe just stay home.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
55   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
I'm sorry but the GOP is the party that ran on a racist platform, chose a nasty lil' nest of racist, xenophobic dipshits to run, and after Trump won, he chose to fill his cabinet with folks who constantly get themselves into trouble on ethics. That members of his admin like the head of the EPA, the public education system and the FCC are ALL incredibly unpopular, and are in the news constantly where such folks were never placed in the limelight before shows that nope- the GOP doesn't give one rat's ass about anyone other than themselves and their corporate backers.
Wow, you just proved our point. The GOP ran on a racist platform lol? You have no link to reality except for what you hear from Van Jones.
56   edvard   ignore (2)   2018 May 14, 3:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

"Wow, you just proved our point. The GOP ran on a racist platform lol? You have no link to reality except for what you hear from Van Jones."

You guys seem to enjoy behaving like most right wing nutters I've run into who are either genuinely dumb or play dumb when it comes to super obvious shit, like things Trump has literally and unquestionably done.

The very FIRST thing Trump did, on day one was to go on a big rant against Hispanics. You remember now? Where he called them drug dealers, rapists and whatnot? Yeah- sounds pretty racist to me, right?

Oh- and what about then having Steve Bannon run his campaign- a guy who has repeatedly gloated and bragged about the alt-right and is the favorite darling of various right wing hate groups?

And speaking of Bannon... remember when first he and then Trump decided they would support that mollestor down in Alabama?
Or what about when Trump sort of suggested that Nazis in that rally in NC were decent people?

Shall I go on or have I made the obvious facts you choose to ignore so glaringly clear?


And what about
57   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
It's the Democrat's fault someone chooses to use "unique identifiers" when talking about someone else who supposedly is their "friend" ?


Yes, that is exactly the point! Glad you got it.

58   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:23pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
The very FIRST thing Trump did, on day one was to go on a big rant against Hispanics.


Uh no, illegal aliens. Trump has hired thousands of hispanics. Do racist people put paychecks into minority pockets every month? No, they enslave them or put them on welfare programs like Democrats do.
59   edvard   ignore (2)   2018 May 14, 3:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

"Yes, that is exactly the point! Glad you got it. "

And now that you seem clearly unable to devote time to an intelligent post you'll do like most wingnut trolls: Start posting immature memes. Yeah- way to try and prove whatever laughably point you might have made.

"Uh no, illegal aliens. Trump has hired thousands of hispanics. Do racist people put paychecks into minority pockets every month? No, they enslave them or put them on welfare programs like Democrats"

Uh yes, illegals or not, making nasty racist comments about humans in general is... Racist. Or are you too dense to get that?
60   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
You guys seem to enjoy behaving like most right wing nutters I've run into who are either genuinely dumb or play dumb when it comes to super obvious shit, like things Trump has literally and unquestionably done.
I want quotes and documented actions. None of your spin or interpretation. Lay out some actual quotes with linked references, and let's analyze.
61   edvard   ignore (2)   2018 May 14, 3:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

"I want quotes. None of your spin or interpretation. Lay out some actual quotes with linked references, and let's analyze."

Don't be so lazy. Have you heard of Google? I'm not going to be your baby sitter: Go look that shit up yourself. Its easy and everything I said comes up right away and was heavily reported when it occurred- on FOX news too...
62   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 May 14, 3:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
"There will be no blue wave."

So you picked a single url? How about a url that shows ALL of the polls together?


Highlight the text and then click quote. Your comments are difficult to read if you haven't read all the prior comments.
63   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
And now that you seem clearly unable to devote time to an intelligent post you'll do like most wingnut trolls:


Intelligent post? Don't intelligent post require intelligent points? Or even "a point"? I honestly didn't see one.
64   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 3:43pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
Uh yes, illegals or not, making nasty racist comments about humans in general is... Racist. Or are you too dense to get that?


First off, calm it down with the personal attacks. Last warning or you're going to start getting nuked. You're not going to like it, and honestly, I don't like doing it. Just follow the rules.

Secondly, what nasty racist comments? Saying some illegals who come over the border are "bad people" is not a nasty comment, it's simply a fact of life. When you don't check who is coming over, inevitably, you will get bad apples streaming across unmitigated.
65   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 May 14, 3:48pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
literally and unquestionably


Lol so literally and unquestionably that you can't be bothered to address anything specific, apparently.



edvard says
"I want quotes. None of your spin or interpretation. Lay out some actual quotes with linked references, and let's analyze."

Don't be so lazy. Have you heard of Google? I'm not going to be your baby sitter: Go look that shit up yourself. Its easy and everything I said comes up right away and was heavily reported when it occurred- on FOX news too...


Haha, ofc.

Ed: "Trump is racist. CNN told me so."
Also Ed: "I have no sources."

Ladies and gentlemen, this is TDS in action.
66   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 May 14, 5:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

edvard says
"I want quotes. None of your spin or interpretation. Lay out some actual quotes with linked references, and let's analyze."

Don't be so lazy. Have you heard of Google? I'm not going to be your baby sitter: Go look that shit up yourself. Its easy and everything I said comes up right away and was heavily reported when it occurred- on FOX news too...
I can't find anything that proves that he is running a racist platform. Back up your shit.
67   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 7:05am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Holidays to Today:

Trump Approval


Trump Disapproval was +21 pts on 12/15/17.
Trump Disapproval stands at +8pts as of 8/13/18.

His margin of disapproval has been cut in half, despite a full court press of Negative Media (which nobody in their right mind can deny) - Unheard for a President who is demonstrating success in hard numbers from GDP to Unemployment to Increasing Exports.

Generic Ballot
Dems lead by 13 points around Christmas 2017
Dems lead has been chopped to a third of that, now 4 points as of Mid August 2018.

68   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Aug 14, 8:11am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Trump Disapproval was +21 pts on 12/15/17.
Trump Disapproval stands at +8pts as of 8/13/18.


TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Dems lead by 13 points around Christmas 2017
Dems lead has been chopped to a third of that, now 4 points as of Mid August 2018.


Come on, you're just quoting fake Fox News crap....

Oh, wait.... it's RCP, which is consider to be one of the most accurate...

Damn.... Time for some NEW FAKE Russia scandal dreamed up by the Liberal MSM. I wonder how Rachel Maddow feels about those numbers?

The "Blue Wave" has turned into a trickling creek.
69   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 8:34am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
despite a full court press of Negative Media (which nobody in their right mind can deny) - Unheard for a President who is demonstrating success in hard numbers from GDP to Unemployment to Increasing Exports.


People dont like being deceived. As they realize, one by one that the MSM is lying about Trump, his ratings will improve. This also gives him a bullet-proof coating against the MSM attacks, since every Trump supporter has realized the MSM is lying constantly.

His approval will rise as the FBI/CIA/Hillary collusion against him during 2016 election continues to come to light. They never thought they would lose, and have been fighting against the inevitable ever since.
70   Rin   ignore (4)   2018 Aug 14, 11:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Goran_K says
Who is suffering right now besides snowflake lefty assholes who don't understand how an election works?


This is key ...

http://patrick.net/post/1315913/2018-05-11-be-honest-if-there-s-no-sudden-economic-collapse-then-trump-gets-re-elected

In it ...

"BTW, I have a thread on election bitches because these east/west coast Femi-Nazis ...

http://patrick.net/post/1301811/2017-01-23-election-bitches-read-my-lips-the-vote-of-women-in-boston-and-nyc-don-t-matter

went ape shit because they couldn't figure out that it takes more than winning over places like Boston and NYC to put a candidate into the White House."
71   Rin   ignore (4)   2018 Aug 14, 11:16am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Seriously, why were 1000s of women, running around the cities of Boston and NYC, protesting the election in mass?

They had already won Massachusetts and New York State!

All they did was create a major traffic jam for YES! ... Hillary Clinton voters!
72   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 5:55pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

MrMagic says
The "Blue Wave" has turned into a trickling creek.


8/14/18 Update: Rasmussen, which does Likely Voters rather than less reliable Registered Voters and certainly the laughable "All Adults", has Trump +1 Approval.

AND, Trumps total approval is now a mere -5%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
73   Aphroman   ignore (7)   2018 Aug 14, 6:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
MrMagic says
The "Blue Wave" has turned into a trickling creek.


8/14/18 Update: Rasmussen, which does Likely Voters rather than less reliable Registered Voters and certainly the laughable "All Adults", has Trump +1 Approval.

AND, Trumps total approval is now a mere -5%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history


It’s a shame that Republicans make the laws here in the States. If they respected our Constitution and Americans way of life, Freedom and Liberty might still exist. And then, like the Liberals up in Canada, we could have some Skin in the Game and wager on elections. Rather than these immense market inefficiencies caused by Republicans that chase all the money offshore and underground, cause crime, and cost us so many jobs
74   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 6:23pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Aphroman says
It’s a shame that Republicans make the laws here in the States. If they respected our Constitution and Americans way of life


It's not a shame, it's democracy, something leftists hate when they don't win elections.

Also, protecting the 2nd Amendment is respecting the Constitution.
75   Aphroman   ignore (7)   2018 Aug 14, 6:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Aphroman says
It’s a shame that Republicans make the laws here in the States. If they respected our Constitution and Americans way of life


It's not a shame, it's democracy, something leftists hate when they don't win elections.

Also, protecting the 2nd Amendment is respecting the Constitution.


There’s nothing democratic about allowing certain gambling in some places yet not in others. Smells more like crony Capitalism to me

Republicans holding legislation hostage that protects our country, unless they get to force their Prohibition rider onto it, is anti-democratic. Like how Republicans did with the UIGEA onto the Safe Ports Act, banning internet gambling while the nation was in crisis, is as unAmerican as it gets. Republicans are all about Prohibition and banning all the fun stuff that gives freedom and liberty any value. Why is that?

United States is a Constitutional Republic.
76   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 14, 6:40pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
8/14/18 Update: Rasmussen, which does Likely Voters rather than less reliable Registered Voters and certainly the laughable "All Adults", has Trump +1 Approval.


This poll was the most accurate for predicting election 2016. RCP averages in a lot of super questionable polls with extremely divergent results to get their number. GIGO!
77   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 7:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Aphroman says
There’s nothing democratic about allowing certain gambling in some places yet not in others. Smells more like crony Capitalism to me


Uh, it's called a Federal System. Some States decide they'll allow gambling, others do not.



Aphroman says

Republicans holding legislation hostage that protects our country, unless they get to force their Prohibition rider onto it, is anti-democratic.


And those representatives were democratically elected.

Aphroman says
United States is a Constitutional Republic.


Yep, that selects representatives via Election.

Sorry you lost. Here's a suggestion, stop demonizing White Males.
78   TrumpingTits   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 14, 7:53pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Here's a suggestion, stop demonizing White Males.


Shhhhh! Don't tell them that!
79   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 14, 10:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Ah, Sod Off.

Bargle Fargle, Yadda Yadda If I can't smoke ganja while gambling on Paul Revere to place at the NOLA Fairgrounds from 1000 miles away, MUH FREEDOM! IA SHUB NIGGURATH!!! Horses on the field, Jockeys to win the trifecta with a thousand joints!!! IA!!! Cthulhu R'lyeh!
80   marcus   ignore (1)   2018 Aug 15, 12:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Goran_K says

There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


I'd rather just let the blue wave change your mind, that is, if it happens.

The most likely way it could manifest would be with higher turn out among democrats, based on disgust with Trump.
81   Aphroman   ignore (7)   2018 Aug 15, 7:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Ah, Sod Off.

Bargle Fargle, Yadda Yadda If I can't smoke ganja while gambling on Paul Revere to place at the NOLA Fairgrounds from 1000 miles away, MUH FREEDOM! IA SHUB NIGGURATH!!! Horses on the field, Jockeys to win the trifecta with a thousand joints!!! IA!!! Cthulhu R'lyeh!


TDS
82   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 15, 12:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Andrew Cuomo: America "...was never that great."

Go Democrats! 2018 Motto: "Does it piss off Peoria?"

Andrew Cuomo: ‘We’re not going to ‘Make America Great Again. It was never that great’ pic.twitter.com/VpPLbsAT9B

— BNL NEWS (@BreakingNLive) August 15, 2018

83   Rin   ignore (4)   2018 Aug 15, 1:09pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Cthulhu R'lyeh!


I never took you for an H.P. Lovecraft fan.
85   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 15, 1:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Rin says
I never took you for an H.P. Lovecraft fan.


As a New Englander, I figured you would be one.

1996 Miskatonic University, BS Non-euclidean Geometry
86   Rin   ignore (4)   2018 Aug 15, 1:47pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
1996 Miskatonic University, BS Non-euclidean Geometry


Yes, both Miskatonic and Harvard had rare books on necromancy!
89   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (2)   2018 Aug 15, 2:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Cook's final electoral map.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/the-cook-political-report

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
90   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Aug 15, 3:30pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says
Cook's final electoral map.


I have one even better from Nate Silver, the Guru of Liberal polling and accurate predictions. This was as of the morning of the election:

Hillary: 302
Trump:235

91   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Aug 15, 3:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Now for something you will REALLY like!

Florida Democratic Voter Registrations Down Since 2016
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/florida-democratic-voter-registrations-down-since-2016/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LegalInsurrection+%28Le

We're going to fuck 'em in the ass good alright!
92   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 17, 2:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout




That's the downside of all the gerrymandering for Republicans. In a very Dem friendly year that breaks the gerrymanders, the results become catastrophic.
93   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Aug 17, 2:18pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

LeonDurham says
the results become catastrophic.


Why did you leave out this graphic:


The Repubs still hold the House, which is the MOST likely.

What does your boy, Nate Silver say, we'll just take his prediction and invert it, just like last election?

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