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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 27,003 views   761 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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216   FortWayne   ignore (4)   2018 Aug 19, 9:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Leon do you understand a difference between some Muslims and too many? Few are a minority which has to immerse. Too many and they change the country.

LeonDurham says
curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


No, it's no lie. There are already Muslims in the US so adding more is not spreading anything.


curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


Not sure what you are even trying to say here. I'm not pro-Muslim. I'm pro--US staying true to the Constitution and Bill of Rights. See my previous post--declare that Islam is not a recognized religion due to its violent nature.
217   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 19, 10:18pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
See my previous post--declare that Islam is not a recognized religion due to its violent nature.


Did you flunk out of law school or something?

Here's the Establishment Clause ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Establishment_Clause

Excerpt: "The Establishment Clause is a limitation placed upon the United States Congress preventing it from passing legislation respecting an establishment of religion. The second half of the Establishment Clause inherently prohibits the government from preferring any one religion over another. While the Establishment Clause does prohibit Congress from preferring or elevating one religion over another, it does not prohibit the government's entry into the religious domain to make accommodations for religious observances and practices in order to achieve the purposes of the Free Exercise Clause. "

In other words, society needs to realize that Islam is in fact, a religion, derived from ancient Arabia, today, known as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Unless some anthropologist can prove this wrong, it stands as a fact.

And since the 1965 Immigration Act, the US govt stopped discriminating against race & skin color during immigration procedures, unlike before. So in order to protect the Cambodian & Vietnamese Buddhists, the Indian & Nepalese Hindus, along with the South American Catholics, the US needs to vet out migration from nation-states, known to harbor Islamists, a.k.a Muslim majority nations.

Is this so difficult to figure out?
218   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 19, 10:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Establishment Clause


...does not really apply in the context of non-resident aliens outside the USA. Nothing in the establishment clause gives foreign Muslims a right to immigrate or even visit, much less a right to subsidies as "refugees." Islam commands believers to go to Mecca, in KSA; a travel ban against entering the USA does not prohibit that.

The place for Muslim migrants to go would be KSA, since they are commanded to go there anyway. KSA, being already Islamic, doesn't need more Muslims, so KSA uses Clinton & Merkel to send them into NATO instead.
219   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 19, 10:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
...does not really apply in the context of non-resident aliens. Nothing in the establishment clause gives foreign Muslims a right to immigrate or even visit, much less a right to subsidies as "refugees." A travel ban does not prevent foreign Muslims from exercising their religion, which BTW commands them to go to Mecca, which is in KSA.


My point was that LeonDurham wanted the US govt to officially declare that "Islam not a recognized religion" when in fact, the US govt does not have that authority. Plus, zero anthropologists would even attempt such a trite argument.

Instead, the only hope the US has is to prevent entrants from Muslim majority nation-states into the US which does a couple of things, one, minimize the Orlando Shooter repeaters, and two, allow the entrance of Chileans, Vietnamese, & Koreans, since it's not about race/color but instead, a propensity for exporting violent ideologies like Islam.
220   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 19, 10:35pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
violent ideologies like Islam.


That's the key, IMO. US law has long excluded advocates of a totalitarian doctrine, and people who advocate the violent overthrow of our government. Islam fits both categories. Whether it's a religion is irrelevant. A Muslim does not have a right to cut off your head, even though his religion commands him to do it. The USA has every right to stop totalitarians and advocates of violence at the border, even a duty to do so, regardless of whether the foreigners' motives are religious or secular.

Even domestically, governments can prohibit murder, even though that prohibits part of Islam. The establishment clause does not preclude laws of general application. It would be interesting to see Muslims argue that the law against murder prohibits them from exercising their religion, e.g. honor killings. They would probably get support from some on PatNet.
221   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 19, 10:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
Even domestically, governments can prohibit murder, even though that prohibits part of Islam. The establishment clause does not preclude laws of general application. It would be interesting to see Muslims argue that the law against murder prohibits them from exercising their religion, e.g. honor killings.


And that's fine because domestically ... murder, extortion, & kidnapping are already on the books so in effect, it's a matter of local & federal agencies doing their job and not kowtowing to some idiot Imam cult leaders, who feel that they can advocate mass violence at their mosques w/o being picked up by the police. Realize, the same goes for PatNet, if someone here tells anyone to knock someone off, that person can be charged for a crime.

curious2 says
The USA has every right to stop totalitarians and advocates of violence at the border, even a duty to do so, regardless of whether the foreigners' motives are religious or secular.


Yes, which is why Leon's argument that this was racism was a Straw Man. So far, I'm yet to hear of Cambodian Buddhists immigrating to the US to blow up buses and shopping centers.
222   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 6:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
It is discussed, including on PatNet, so that is another lie from you. As candidate Trump said, Islam hates us. It is a totalitarian doctrine that commands the violent overthrow of our government, and hides behind the beard of a religion.


OK--point me to a discussion of declaring that Islam a=is not a religion. Perhaps I missed it.
223   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 6:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Did you flunk out of law school or something?



lol. I referenced the Establishment Clause earlier in my posts so obviously not. Perhaps you need a primer on reading comprehension.


Rin says
Excerpt: "The Establishment Clause is a limitation placed upon the United States Congress preventing it from passing legislation respecting an establishment of religion. The second half of the Establishment Clause inherently prohibits the government from preferring any one religion over another. While the Establishment Clause does prohibit Congress from preferring or elevating one religion over another, it does not prohibit the government's entry into the religious domain to make accommodations for religious observances and practices in order to achieve the purposes of the Free Exercise Clause. "

In other words, society needs to realize that Islam is in fact, a religion, derived from ancient Arabia, today, known as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Unless some anthropologist can prove this wrong, it stands as a fact.



No, your "in other words" is not at all a summation of the prior clause. If one declares that Islam is NOT a religion, clearly one is not preferring one religion over another. That should be obvious. That is the entire purpose behind declaring that it's not a religion.
224   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
My point was that LeonDurham wanted the US govt to officially declare that "Islam not a recognized religion" when in fact, the US govt does not have that authority.


OK-that may be true, but what is the law that defines the requirements for an established religion that the US must recognize?
225   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 6:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Yes, which is why Leon's argument that this was racism was a Straw Man. So far, I'm yet to hear of Cambodian Buddhists immigrating to the US to blow up buses and shopping centers.



And that's why I would NEVER and did NEVER make such an argument. Please do not put words in my mouth (or post in this case).


#1--we're talking about religion, not race. Why in the world you would think I ever said anything about racism is beyond me.
#2--I've simply commented on the law
226   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 20, 9:25am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
That is the entire purpose behind declaring that it's not a religion.


So an expert panel (pick any of the universities a/o think tanks of the globe) of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists are going to say that 'Islam is NOT a religion of the ppls of Arabia'? So who was the First Caliphate, Abu Bakr, aside from being a believer in the visions of the prophet Mohamed? If that's not a religion, which really is little more than an oversized cult, then what is?

Wasn't that essentially Paul of Tarsas's role, when he spread the stories of Jesus throughout the ethnic Greek majority Anatolia and the rest of the Roman Empire? And at least the first Caliphate knew Mohamed in person whereas Paul only saw Jesus in a vision, while he was having a nervous breakdown near Damascus.

This is basically the Ignatius Loyola technique of the middle ages ...

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ignatius_of_Loyola

Iggy said: "what I see as white is black, if the hierarchic Church defines it thus."

Sorry, that doesn't fly in the modern world. That's called denial.

Today, the definition is clear ... Islam is a religion but a religion of cultural [ see Arabic culture ] expansion & violence. Hence, not being Arabians, we (meaning the west) do not want their values and customs in our society.

So yes, the US govt can restrict immigration from Islamic majority countries, and domestically, toss Imams in jail for advocating violence on the local populations.
227   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 9:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
So yes, the US govt can restrict immigration from Islamic majority countries, and domestically, toss Imams in jail for advocating violence on the local populations.


I agree with this. Unfortunately, Trump opened his big mouth and declared that he was going to ban Musliims, not ban people from certain countries. Therefore, even when the directive was written to ban people from certain countries, courts have ruled that his intention is clearly to ban Muslims, which they find to be unconstitutional.

Rin says
So an expert panel (pick any of the universities a/o think tanks of the globe) of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists are going to say that 'Islam is NOT a religion of the ppls of Arabia'? So who was the First Caliphate, Abu Bakr, aside from being a believer in the visions of the prophet Mohamed? If that's not a religion, which really is little more than an oversized cult, then what is?


Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts? I've not seen anything that sets a legal standard, so that's an honest question.
229   rdm   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 10:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion. The IRS determines tax exempt status (my opinion is this should be revoked for all religions) I would guess they have written criteria for this, but don't know. I remember years ago the Native American religion that used peyote as part of its, in my opinion, legit religious ceremony lost in court when trying to get a waiver from the law outlawing peyote's use and possession. I think there has subsequently been some accommodation. Clearly the law as it is interpreted favors established so called mainstream religions. Islam falls into that category whether you like it or not. Some countries such as Russia have "officially" recognized religions and they do not recognize others, they banned Jehovah's Witness a few years ago. I don't believe U.S. can do this due to the establishment clause.
230   Misc   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 10:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think that the republicans will lose a few seats in the House, but will not lose the majority. They should probably keep the majority in the Senate, as well. The economy has improved so much under Trump that people will vote their pocket books. The job gains under Obama were all part time jobs. There have been millions of full time jobs created under Trump and many part time jobs converted to full time (these are not fully reflected in the job numbers). It is not just a continuation of a trend, the full time jobs now being created mean a much better economy.
231   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 20, 10:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rdm says
LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion.


Which loops back to the main point, what is our judiciary system?... aside from being a panel of legally trained experts, albeit, over represented by places like Harvard or Yale Law Schools.

And yes, these judges will defer to the expert opinions of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists as to whether or not Islam is a religion or not. And since most would concur that it was a religion, then that pathway won't work.

Let's just hope that they reach out from beyond Harvard and Yale. That's too much Ivy league incest.
233   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 23, 5:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gop-poised-midterm-wipeout-apos-130000367.html

Politics
GOP poised for midterm wipeout as 'blue wave' scenario gives Democrats a 12-point lead: NBC-WSJ poll

John Harwood,CNBC 11 hours ago

"The new NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey, taken six weeks before Americans head to the polls, shows Democrats leading Republicans by 52 percent to 40 percent for control of Congress.
If it holds, that 12 percentage point margin would suggest a "blue wave" large enough to switch control of not just the House but also the Senate."
235   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Sep 24, 3:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Republican Party Favorability highest in 7 years:

Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/242906/republican-party-favorability-highest-seven-years.aspx
236   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 24, 4:13pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This thread will be fun to visit in Six weeks. I’m glad I got the first comment. On record in May for RED WAVE!
237   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 24, 5:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am predicting repubs will hold the house in smaller numbers and increase senate. Lets see. Me thinks dems overplayed their hand with kavanaugh -next will be Hilalry ina dominatrix suite claiming Kavanugh stiffed her fee.
238   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 24, 8:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

One race here in Va you may find interesting. The Virginia 2nd District seat would normally be a shoe-in for the ex Navy SEAL incumbent, but his campaign staff did a little fraud helping a primaried out Democrat collect signatures so she could run as an Independent. That would split the Democrat votes and help the incumbent win. If the incumbent loses, (not sure what the odds are) it will be as a reaction to this fraud. A court case threw out the collected signatures, so the Independent is not on the ballot.
239   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 10:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Now I'm positive there won't be a blue wave.

Last week, I sued @realDonaldTrump & @senatemajldr to stop the unconstitutional Kavanaugh confirmation process. Today I filed a motion for a restraining order against Trump and McConnell to force immediate disclosure of the Kavanaugh record they’ve been working so hard to hide.

— Jeff Merkley (@JeffMerkley) October 3, 2018



The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.

Imagine, the Media no longer controls the narrative.

"Hit the Identity/Rape/Toxic White Male button again!"
"I can't"
"Why not?"
"It's jammed to the on position!"
240   Tenpoundbass   ignore (13)   2018 Oct 4, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The blue Squirt!
241   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 11:07am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Holy crap, look at Cramer vs. Heitkamp. A nobody is beating the crap out of a well-known Senator, RCP average is 8.7 pts - some have him leading by double digits!
242   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!
243   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!


Hey! You stole PART of my prediction! :)~

Mine also included massive net losses in state legislatures and governorships, some the Dems have held for a long time. Why? What is now going to happen thanks to Kavanaugh is #Walkaway times 11, that's why.

GOP now has the supermajority of the male vote for at least a couple of election cycles, not to mention how African-American males are a tad bit sensitive to unsubstantiated rape charges.

Something to do with a long history of African-American males being slammed with such things, ya think!
244   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.


How will stopping his appointment help? It is no longer about his appointment. It never really was, actually. It was always about the election...except for Harris and Booker. For those two, it was/still is always about the 2020 presidential nomination from the Batshit Crazy Party.

Confirmed or not, people will vote by what went down for the most part, I think.
246   jazz_music   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 4, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Ahhh sweet dreams

and the riches from the wage earners will keep flowing to all the gamblers.
247   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!


Careful. Lake Michigan is the fullest I've seen it on the Chicago shoreline in my lifetime. Just drove by on Sunday to the last regular season cubs game. Shit, she was bulging. Wisconsin has gotten tons of rain this summer, which of course all goes out over the lake. No tears please, it's full.
248   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House.

Not sure where you're drawing those conclusions from. Odds are good that the Repubs will pick up a couple seats in the Senate, but the House? Not quite.
249   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The anger about the Kavanagh Kangaroo Kourt is real and will drive extra beatings than were already in store for the Democrats. Remember I predicted a red wave in May.
That red wave just got ten feet higher!

The Democrats just marginalized their party for a generation.
250   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 1:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785
251   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 1:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Heitkamp has been trailing Cramer since like May. The Kavanaugh hearings may have moved the needle infinitesimally but she's been in an uphill battle for at least 2 months before Kavanaugh was even announced.

In all likelihood she knows she's toast and is just voting her conscience.
252   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 1:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785


Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.
253   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:31pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.


She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.
254   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Planned Parenthood Action Tweet threatening Democrats:

https://twitter.com/PPact/status/1047857373514223616

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