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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 5,607 views   378 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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281   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 10, 5:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
282   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 10, 5:50pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.

Tell us again about those reliable polls?
283   TrumpingTits   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.
284   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What I’m seeing is this. people who’ve sidelined themselves from politics or voting for years or even decades because they don’t believe in the process are having a change of heart. They’re seeing things happen that could have never happened when one of the trained apes who usually run the world were in charge. They see that the Democrats are completely deranged and hostile to regular Americans. They deeply mistrust these Leftists and are ready to cast a vote they haven’t used in years to keep the idiots from getting back in power.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.
285   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TrumpingTits says
CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.


Was the election on October 22nd?
286   marcus   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 10, 9:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Democrats will take control of the house, but probably not enough of a blue wave for them to take the senate.

But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.
287   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 9:59pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.
288   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 11, 4:43am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.

MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.

Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.
289   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 11, 6:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
290   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.


I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.
292   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling

I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
294   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 11, 10:30am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


You and me both. Especially in the Senate. I think 4 - 8 seats there will not be Dem incumbents returning in the next Congress. With Kavanaugh, they screwed & tattooed their Red State Dems for sure.

House...I think that the Dems' NET election gains will be a wash at best. Or if they do see gains, the amount of lost seats will still prevent them from taking it.

I plan on working from home on Nov 7. I work in downtown Oakland and don't want to be targeted by the Mob of the Vicious Losers that will be sure to 'spontaneously' form.
296   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 12, 10:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The market could resolve this very quickly. Sadly, the Republicans took away Americans Freedom to wager on political events with their Failed Loser UIGEA rider they attached to the SAFE Port Act

Otherwise this could have been resolved in 295 less posts. By Real Men with Skin in The Game.

If the people who support Republicans cared about our Liberties and Freedoms, it would look more like this:

Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!

And there would be a market in place, pricing Cruz ~ -152 and anyone who disagrees can buy O Rourke for +148. Matchbook gets their cut for running book, and then there’s some substance to the mindless bleating about a Red Wave or Blue Wave

Places that value Freedom like Canada already have this in place. America is under hostage of the religious right and their SJWing phony fucking moral police. The saddest part is the leaders they pick are the biggest offenders of the rules they demand are imposed upon the rest of us. Pieces of Shit
298   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!


I want some.

How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
299   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
300   cmdrdataleak   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.


pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
301   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

cmdrdataleak says
Goran_K says
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.


pat.net feature request: current events wager book.


It’s illegal i just posted that it used to be a thing until Republicans used big overreaching Government to ban it.

Well, with Gambling States Rights restored, albeit in horrifically shoddy patchwork, you may be able to wager large sums on political events, or any event for that matter, legally again. However, only intra-state action would be allowed, no interstate commerce and I gotta believe, no electronic payments either as that was the crux of UIGEA that Republicans snuck in on us as a rider to SAFE Ports Act.

Just assume if there’s something awesome and fun that you want to do in America, Republicans have already outlawed it. Unless it’s something like alcohol that makes you sick and stupid, then have at it.

You want to gamble while getting your knob polished by an Asian broad at a high end Gentleman’s Club, head to Canada. Their Conservatives never allowed the Religious Right to control their party and take away all their Freedoms
302   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
303   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 2:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!


Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.

http://patrick.net/post/1319512/2018-10-12-blue-wave-bullshit-exposed-new-poll-shows-democrat-shalala-trailing-gop-opponent-in-a-district-trump-lost-badly

Aside from that: I am good for $100 donation to pat.net should the Red Wave prove true.

@Quigley Define 'Congress' in the 'more Republicans in...than before the election'. Is that sum net total of both combined or more in each House?
304   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MockingbirdKiller says
Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.


Blew Wave!
306   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

cmdrdataleak says
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.


I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.

Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.

I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
307   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 3:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.

Oh man!

The commie wu mau Soros trolls on here will SCREAM about that one! Then when that doesn't work, they'll demand 'progressive' betting liability redistribution.

309   Aphroman   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 12, 4:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!


Republicans prohibit us from doing so legally.

I’m already 100% all in on the Green Wave so you’re going to have to find a blue wave dem to pit yourself against
310   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
311   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.


I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.

If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.

But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.

If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.

I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.

Would you do that bet?
312   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
313   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Interesting re. Hispanics, who are supposed to vote D reliably...but apparently not in TX

A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.

Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.

Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
314   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Doesn't sound like you're too confident.


I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.

I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?

"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.

I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
315   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.


Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.

Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
316   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote.


Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".

That makes me happy.
317   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".

That makes me happy.


Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
318   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.


And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?

I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.

All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
319   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.


They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.

But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
320   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.

I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.

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