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Tax Cut impact, CBO got it wrong

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 16, 2:03pm 1,581 views   37 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbo-forecasts-largest-ever-monthly-surplus-as-record-tax-receipts-pour-in-2018-05-08

Record tax receipts will lead to the largest-ever monthly budget surplus for the federal government, congressional analysts said in a new report, as Americans hand over more money to Washington.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the April surplus will total $218 billion, breaking the prior record of nearly $190 billion notched in April 2001.

Greater-than-expected tax receipts drove the surplus, CBO said, noting the record $515 billion in receipts for the month was as much as $40 billion more than the agency estimated about a month ago.
1   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 May 16, 3:30pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Those affected w TDS will spin this as bad.
2   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 16, 3:33pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
Those affected w TDS will spin this as bad.


They're in the other thread predicting a huge recession by next year.
3   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 May 16, 3:35pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Pah, Trump will never capture additional taxes when companies bring back money from abroad from tax cuts.

The CBO, Krugman, and Chelsea Handler know this.
4   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 May 16, 3:36pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says
Krugman


"We don't care about Krugman!" said the same people who go on and on about the supposed Keynesian miracles that Obama somehow pulled off...
5   HEYYOU   ignore (18)   2018 May 16, 6:30pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Glad the CBO proved what we all know about Republicans. They tax Americans.
More tax revenue? Glad no American had to pay any taxes. Mexico must have paid it.
Any tax collected under a Republican Administration is SOCIALISM.
How does it feel to have nothing to argue with,against the truth?
6   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 May 24, 4:15pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Didn't CBO underestimate the cost of Obamacare?
7   bob2356   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 22, 6:40am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbo-forecasts-largest-ever-monthly-surplus-as-record-tax-receipts-pour-in-2018-05-08

Record tax receipts will lead to the largest-ever monthly budget surplus for the federal government, congressional analysts said in a new report, as Americans hand over more money to Washington.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the April surplus will total $218 billion, breaking the prior record of nearly $190 billion notched in April 2001.

Greater-than-expected tax receipts drove the surplus, CBO said, noting the record $515 billion in receipts for the month was as much as $40 billion more than the agency estimated about a month ago


Looks like someone stopped reading at the first paragraph. Otherwise why leave out this part

Those payments were mostly related to economic activity in 2017 and may reflect stronger-than-expected income growth for that year.

Economic activity in 2017. Before the tax cut.


Nice attempt at a bit of deceptive demagoguery. Were are Jan, Feb, Mar numbers? Curiously missing.
8   HEYYOU   ignore (18)   2018 Jun 22, 7:07am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$40 billion ought to cover the Republican $1,500,000,000,000 added debt.
9   HEYYOU   ignore (18)   2018 Jun 22, 7:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Did someone just pay $40,000,000,000 more in taxes.
10   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 8:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Did you all see the BIG MONEY the government received in May? $217,075 billion! To bad that's the worst may since 2015! When OBAMA brought in $212,386 billion! And is lower than OBAMA's last May in office when he brought in $224,603 billion.

May 2018 receipts are $23,343 billion LESS than MAY 2017. So at this rate the $40 billion gain of April to the previous April will be erased by the end of June. Good thing we got all that money back here so inflation can go through the roof.... Winning? Not if your middle class, that's for sure.
11   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 8:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
Nice attempt at a bit of deceptive demagoguery. Were are Jan, Feb, Mar numbers? Curiously missing.


Of course they're missing because the 1st quarter of 2018 ending May 30 the US government received less than they did in the first quarter of 2017. Even with all that repatriation of off shore US dollars.
12   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 22, 8:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RafiMaas says
inflation can go through the roof

Unlikely as that money will be spent on executive bonuses and not worker pay. So, Hampton mansions and Bentley prices will increase. Interest on US govt bonds will increase, meaning that deficit will continue increasing, and possible outcome may be deflationary collapse. I like this analysis:

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/amidst-inflation-scare-price-war-intensifies-between-costco-target-walmart-TMpngxk3CEiThWEVxRpwNA/
13   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 9:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

drB6 says
Unlikely as that money will be spent on executive bonuses and not worker pay.


Good point
14   Booger   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 22, 9:12am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
Didn't CBO underestimate the cost of Obamacare?
.

Pretty much any new giveaway or military procurement is underestimated.
15   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 22, 9:23am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Feux, cut it out with the personal attacks. Otherwise, your conversation threads are going to look a lot more disjointed.
16   HEYYOU   ignore (18)   2018 Jun 22, 9:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

drB6 says

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/amidst-inflation-scare-price-war-intensifies-between-costco-target-walmart-TMpngxk3CEiThWEVxRpwNA/


When corps talk about price drops,one conclusion,they have been gouging the consumer.
Fuck HEYYOU!
It's a free market economy.
18   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 10:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Lol

#maga


#Yismoredebtgood? Winning?
19   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 11:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Feux Follets says
economists


Definition: a person who has been taught so many incorrect theories that they haven’t a prayer of seeing what is obvious the average man on the street can tell at a glance.
Some related reading:

https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2016/04/01/how-accurate-are-economic-forecasts

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-you-should-ignore-economic-forecasts/
20   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 22, 10:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I guess the CBO underestimated the Trump tax cuts. May would have brought in at least $12 billion more than the previous May, if not more without the cuts. Instead May was down $23 billion, that's a loss of $35 billion in tax revenue in 1 month if that is the norm then the Trump tax cuts would end up putting us in $4 Trillion not $2 Trillion of extra debt.
21   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 23, 6:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So how are the Trumpublicans going to spin it. $35 billion less than would have been collected with out the tax cuts. Now how are we going to pay for space Force?
22   bob2356   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 23, 8:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says

Nice attempt at a bit of deceptive demagoguery. Were are Jan, Feb, Mar numbers? Curiously missing.


Did Goran post these numbers yet? Crickets chirping.
23   bob2356   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 23, 8:07am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RafiMaas says
Now how are we going to pay for space Force?


Don't worry the Mexicans will pay for it after they send a check for the wall.
24   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 23, 10:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So why didn't we have a record breaking May? #fail
25   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 23, 5:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Crickets. Apparently being conservative has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility.
26   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 23, 9:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bill Mitchell, apparently you are not too smart, it was a one time deal. It's called repatriation of off shore money. If it was only because of tax cuts wouldn't the trend have continued?
27   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 23, 9:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm confused the op said that the CBO got it wrong... Is that because they under estimated the extra debt that the tax cuts would add?
28   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 24, 8:29am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

@goran_k is pilling on more debt in good times a good idea?
29   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 24, 11:55am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RafiMaas says
@goran_k is pilling on more debt in good times a good idea?


Obama was the biggest debtor in the nations history, was he good or bad?
30   marcus   ignore (4)   2018 Jun 24, 12:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Obama was the biggest debtor in the nations history


How much of that was totally out of his hands ?

i.e. massive drop in tax revenues due to recession (economic crash) that occurred in late 2008 and early 2009 while spending that was essentially already planned and agreed to before Obama ( basically paying bills). Combine that with off the books stuff such as Medicare part D and off the books IRaq spending that was finally put on the books under Obama, and then also all the bailouts and programs initiated to ease the effects of the housing crash.

His situation was unique and so much of it was in the cards before he started.

Whereas the degree to which the deficit is being exploded now, in growth times is something unprecedented, although Reagan did it too. It's called blindly living WAY beyond your means.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeee !!

Hey there's a big right wing media machine ready to spin this, but everyone paying attention knows that what's going on is unprecedented, and that the lower and middle class are going to pay for it in one way or another. They need to get a democrat back in power before the shit really hits the fan take the blame in the eyes of the gullible right wingers.
33   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 24, 12:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
RafiMaas says
@goran_k is pilling on more debt in good times a good idea?


Obama was the biggest debtor in the nations history, was he good or bad?


Did Obama inherite good times? No, he did not.

Did Trump inherite bad times? No he did not.

Fuck Paulsen and his $700 billion dollar socialist bazooka.
34   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 24, 1:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

“How much of that was totally out of his hands ?”

Considering Obama’s close ties with Wall Street, he did what he did to save his closest allies.
35   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 24, 1:55pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RafiMaas says
Goran_K says
RafiMaas says
Do I wish people like you lost all their fucking money in 2008 like capitalism says you should have, yes I do.

Fuck Paulsen and his $700 billion dollar socialist bazooka.


.


Thankfully I wasn’t over leaveraged in real estate. In essence I escaped completely unscathed from 2008 because I made wise decisions. Capitalism doesn’t save those who make bad decisions.
36   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 24, 2:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RafiMaas says
Do I wish people like you lost all their fucking money in 2008 like capitalism says you should have, yes I do.


What was that you said about personal attacks?

RafiMaas says
A good way to avoid this is to not make personal comments. It is quite easy.


Oh, now I remember...
37   RafiMaas   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 24, 3:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Capitalism doesn’t save those who make bad decisions.
usually not but unfortunately that was not the case in 2008-2009




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